THE FUTURE OF THE FLEX- FUEL VEHICLE IN THE U.S.
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1 THE FUTURE OF THE FLEX- FUEL VEHICLE IN THE U.S. Diana Ginnebaugh, PhD CEE Postdoctoral Scholar PrecourtEnergy Efficiency i Center Stanford University PEEC Transportation Seminar November 1, 2013
2 Flex-Fuel Fuel Vehicles E85 Policies Air Pollution Regulation Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Blend Wall, E15 Corn vs Cellulosic ethanol Other challenges
3 Policies FLEX-FUEL VEHICLES
4 25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock Light Truc ck) Stock % of Total LDV (Car + 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Year Data from EIA
5 25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock Light Truc ck) Stock % of Total LDV (Car + 20% 15% 10% 5% Hybrids 0% Year Data from EIA
6 25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock Light Truc ck) Stock % of Total LDV (Car + 20% 15% 10% 5% AMFA 1988 (1.2 mpg CAFE credit) Hybrids 0% Year Data from EIA
7 FFV CAFE Calculation Example gasoline: 24.1 mpg FFV E85: 17.6 mpg
8 FFV CAFE Calculation Example gasoline: 24.1 mpg FFV E85: 17.6 mpg E85 = 17.6 mpg / 0.15 = mpg
9 FFV CAFE Calculation Example gasoline: 24.1 mpg FFV E85: 17.6 mpg E85 = 17.6 mpg / 0.15 = mpg Assume 50/50 use of gasoline/e85: CAFE: 1/(0.5/ /117.2) = 40 mpg
10 25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock Light Truc ck) Stock % of Total LDV (Car + 20% 15% 10% 5% AMFA 1988 (1.2 mpg CAFE credit) Hybrids 0% EPAct 1992 Year (federal fleets) Data from EIA
11 25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock Light Truc ck) Stock % of Total LDV (Car + 20% 15% 10% 5% AMFA 1988 (1.2 mpg CAFE credit) EPAct 2005 (labels, fleets use alt fuel) Hybrids 0% EPAct 1992 Year (federal fleets) Data from EIA
12 25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock Light Truc ck) Stock % of Total LDV (Car + 20% 15% 10% 5% EISA 2007 (1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014, AMFA 1988 declining to (1.2 mpg CAFE 2019) credit) EPAct 2005 (labels, fleets use alt fuel) Hybrids 0% EPAct 1992 Year (federal fleets) Data from EIA
13 25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock Light Truc ck) Stock % of Total LDV (Car + 20% 15% 10% 5% EISA 2007 (1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014, AMFA 1988 declining to (1.2 mpg CAFE 2019) credit) EPAct 2005 (labels, fleets use alt fuel) AEO 2010 Hybrids 0% EPAct 1992 Year (federal fleets) Data from EIA
14 25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock Light Truc ck) Stock % of Total LDV (Car + 20% 15% 10% 5% EISA 2007 (1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014, AMFA 1988 declining to (1.2 mpg CAFE 2019) credit) EPAct 2005 (labels, fleets use alt fuel) AEO 2010 AEO 2011 Hybrids 0% EPAct 1992 Year (federal fleets) Data from EIA
15 25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock Light Truc ck) Stock % of Total LDV (Car + 20% 15% 10% 5% EISA 2007 (1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014, AMFA 1988 declining to (1.2 mpg CAFE 2019) credit) EPAct 2005 (labels, fleets use alt fuel) AEO 2010 AEO 2011 CAFE and EPA GHG credits (require alt fuel use) Hybrids 0% EPAct 1992 Year (federal fleets) Data from EIA
16 CAFE and EPA GHG Credits GHG credits (MY ) 100% gasoline OR actual usage of E85 no cap CAFE Credits (MY ) 100% gasoline OR actual usage of E divisor to encourage dual fuel vehicle production no cap
17 Why Emphasis on Actual Usage? 2011: - 10 million flex-fuel vehicles - ~ 1 million of those used E85 Data from EIA
18 Annual Ethanol Consumption in theus U.S. *ethanol is listed as gasoline-equivalent gallons E million gallons <1% Gasoline 122 billion gallons 93% Ethanol E10 7 billion gallons 7% 9.6% Ethanol (by volume) (2011 data, from EIA 2013)
19 FFV CAFE Calculation Example gasoline: 24.1 mpg FFV E85: 17.6 mpg E85 = 17.6 mpg / 0.15 = mpg up to MY 2019 (50/50): CAFE: 1/(0.5/ /117.2) = 40 mpg MY 2020 and beyond (actual usage): CAFE: 1/(0.9/24.1 / + 0.1/117.2) = 26 mpg
20 25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock Light Truc ck) Stock % of Total LDV (Car + 20% 15% 10% 5% EISA 2007 (1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014, AMFA 1988 declining to (1.2 mpg CAFE 2019) credit) EPAct 2005 (labels, fleets use alt fuel) AEO 2010 AEO 2011 AEO 2012 CAFE and EPA GHG credits (require alt fuel use) Hybrids 0% EPAct 1992 Year (federal fleets) Data from EIA
21 25% Flex-Fuel Vehicle % of Total US Stock Light Truc ck) Stock % of Total LDV (Car + 20% 15% 10% 5% EISA 2007 (1.2 mpg CAFE credit to 2014, AMFA 1988 declining to (1.2 mpg CAFE 2019) credit) EPAct 2005 (labels, fleets use alt fuel) AEO 2010 AEO 2011 AEO 2012 AEO 2013 CAFE and EPA GHG credits (require alt fuel use) Hybrids 0% EPAct 1992 Year (federal fleets) Data from EIA
22 Who uses FFV CAFE credits? How much? FLEX-FUEL VEHICLES
23 1800 Flex-Fuel Vehicle Sales 1600 lex-fuel Ve ehicle Sale es (thousan nds) F400 Flex-Fuel Light Duty Trucks Flex-Fuel Cars '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Data from EIA
24 12 Flex-Fuel Vehicle Stock 10 Flex-Fuel Vehicle Sto ock (millio ns) Flex-Fuel Light Duty Trucks Flex-Fuel Cars 0 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Data from EIA
25 4 Usage of AMFA credits for Domestic Passenger Cars E with AM MFA minu us E) Diff ference (m mpg, CAF CAF Chrysler Daimler Chrysler Ford GM Nissan Toyota Model Year Data from NHTSA
26 1.6 Fraction of CAFE standard, without AMFA (FFV), for Domestic Cars Fraction Chrysler Ford Nissan Daimler Chrysler GM Toyota Model Year Data from NHTSA
27 1.6 Fraction of CAFE standard, with AMFA (FFV), for Domestic Cars Fraction Chrysler Ford Nissan Daimler Chrysler GM Toyota Model Year Data from NHTSA
28 E with AM MFA minu us E) Diff ference (m mpg, CAF CAF Usage of AMFA credits for Light Trucks Chrysler Daimler Daimler Chrysler Ford GM Nissan Toyota Model Year Data from NHTSA
29 1.2 Fraction of CAFE standard, without AMFA (FFV), for Light Trucks 1 Fraction Chrysler Daimler Daimler Chrysler Ford GM Nissan Toyota Model Year Data from NHTSA
30 1.2 Fraction of CAFE standard, with AMFA (FFV), for Light Trucks 1 Fraction Chrysler Daimler Daimler Chrysler Ford GM Nissan Toyota Model Year Data from NHTSA
31 Emission Standards d FLEX-FUEL VEHICLES
32 Air Pollution Scores Score US EPA Tier 2 CARB LEV II 10 Bin 1 ZEV 9 xx PZEV 8 Bin 2 SULEV II 7 Bin 3 xx 6 Bin 4 ULEV II 5 Bin 5 LEV II 4 Bin 6 LEV II opt 1 3 Bin 7 xx 2 Bin 8 SULEV II lg trucks 1 xx ULEV&LEVIIlgtrucks
33 Flex-Fuel Vehicle Emissions Standards Tier 2 ( phase in, use now) gasoline (E0) - FTP, cold CO, highway, SFTP (aggressive highway, A/C) E85 FTP, highwayh Bin 5 = fleet avg requirements CARB LEV II ( phase in, use thru 2019) FTP, SFTP, Evap (w E10?) fleet average NMOG less than half federal allowed NMOG fleet average (bin 5) FTP at 50F, NMOG and HCHO
34 Vapor Pressure of Ethanol/Gasoline Blends Vapor Pr ressure (kpa) 80 E5 E E5 E10 Gasoline (E0) E85 E % Ethanol in Fuel (data from Furey 1985)
35 Flex-Fuel Vehicle Emissions Standards Tier 2 ( phase in, use now) gasoline (E0) - FTP, cold CO, highway, SFTP (aggressive highway, A/C) E85 FTP, highwayh Bin 5 = fleet avg requirements CARB LEV II ( phase in, use thru 2019) FTP, SFTP, Evap (w E10?) fleet average NMOG less than half federal allowed NMOG fleet average (bin 5) FTP at 50F, NMOG and HCHO
36 LEV II 50F Emission Standards All LEV II light- and medium-duty LEVs, ULEVs, and SULEVs must demonstrate t compliance with the following exhaust emission standards for NMOG and formaldehyde (HCHO) measured on the FTP (40 CFR, Part 86, Subpart B) conducted at a nominal test temperature of 50 F OEM pick 3 PC/LDT and 3 MDV to meet standard for each MY (typically new models)
37 From CARB
38 California+ New Jersey Oregon Connecticut Arizona Washington Pennsylvania Vermont Maryland New York Florida (2013) Maine New Mexico (2016) Rhode Island Massachusetts
39 CARB Emission Standards d DO THEY LIMIT FLEX-FUEL VEHICLE MODEL AVAILABILITY?
40 CA Standards Restrict FFV Sales? Yes Minnesota evaluation of California Vehicle Emission Standards in 2009 reject because it will limit FFV availability in the state in 2008 DOE presentation, GM expressed concern about California 50F tests for FFVs Some models are not available in FFV in California+ some are only offered as FFV in Midwest, only as gasoline in California+ i No Florida adopting California GHG rules (for 2013 or later) although a select few FFV have difficulty certifying to SULEV, there are existing, well-known technologies to make FFV that can certify as SULEV (such as direct fuel injection) fleet average manufacturers decide how to meet it
41 14% % Flex-Fuel Vehicle Models of Total Models Offered by Model Year 12% %FF FV of Mod dels Offere ed 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Federal California+ 0% Model Year Data from EPA
42 180 Number of Flex-Fuel Vehicle Models Offered by Model Year 160 Numbe r of FFV Models Of ffered Federal California Model Year Data from EPA
43 10 Flex-Fuel Vehicle Average Tier 2 Bins by Model Year Bin Teir Federal California+ 1 Full phase-in Tier 2, LEV II Model Year Data from EPA
44 States with CARB Standards Rank State Number of FFV per 1000 vehicles 18 OR WA NJ RI CT CA NY PA ME MA VT 0.36 Data from OHPI, FHWA
45 States with CARB Standards Rank State Number of FFV per 1000 vehicles 18 OR WA NJ RI CT 2.70 Average Ranking: CA NY PA ME MA VT 0.36 Data from OHPI, FHWA
46 Midwest Rank State Number of FFV per 1000 vehicles 3 SD ND MO MN IL NE IA MI KS WI OH IN 2.19 Data from OHPI, FHWA
47 Midwest Rank State Number of FFV per 1000 vehicles 3 SD ND MO MN IL Average NERanking: IA MI KS WI OH IN 2.19 Data from OHPI, FHWA
48 Future Emission Standards d DO THEY LIMIT FLEX-FUEL VEHICLE MODEL AVAILABILITY?
49 New Flex-Fuel Vehicle Emissions Standards Tier 3 ( phase-in) NMOG+NOx gasoline (E15?) FTP, cold CO, highway, SFTP, PM, evap E85 FTP, highway, SFTP from 68F to 86F highest bin = bin 5 from Tier 2 fleet avg bin = bin 2 from Tier 2 (2025) CARB LEV III ( phase-in, thru 2025) Tier 3 is based on LEV III zero evap standard w E10 cold T test 50F, not on gasoline for flex-fuel f
50 12 Tier 2 Bin Level for all Certified FFV Models 10 Tier 2 Bin Level Tier 3 limit Tier 3 2 avg Bubble sizes = number of models Federal 2025 offered in that bin California Model Year Data from EPA
51 Air Pollution Ethanol (E85) and gasoline both increase air pollution Ethanol (E85) may increase ozone significantly at cold temperatures Also a concern for peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN), formaldehyde (HCHO), and acetaldehyde (CH 3 CHO)
52 What should the policy be? FATE OF FLEX-FUEL VEHICLES
53 Some thoughts wasted fuel due to inefficient vehicles consumer fuel cost vs vehicle cost for increased efficiency energy security not actually using E85 ethanol beneficial i or detrimental? t climate change air pollution (brazil) energy security food dfor fuel
54 Future of Flex-FuelFuel Vehicles Policies i encouraging FFV being phased out Air pollution standards may be a challenge Other ways to meet CAFE and GHG standards (EV, PHEV, HEV) which also help meeting air pollution standards Ethanol s future is uncertain
55
56 An Aside HOW GHG CREDITS ARE GOING
57 350 Fleet Average CO 2 Emissions vs Standard for Passenger Cars (CA and US) Fleet Average CO 2 Emiss sions (g/m mi) Standard Mazda - CA VW - CA Ford - US Nissan - US Suzuki - US Toyota - US Honda - CA Mitsubishi - CA Chrysler - US GM - US Subaru - US Tesla - US Volvo - US Data from EPA
58 350 Fleet Average CO 2 Emissions vs Standard for Passenger Cars (Not California plus) Fleet Average CO 2 Emiss sions (g/m mi) Standard BMW Honda Mazda Mitsubishi VW Data from EPA
59
60 one (g + a) (μg/ m 3 ) Total Oz Warm Temperature Case 350 Gasoline (no fog) 300 Gasoline (fog) E85 (no fog) 250 E85 (fog) TFog :00 AM 6:00 PM 6:00 AM 6:00 PM 6:00 AM Time of Day 60
61 one (g + a) (μg/ m 3 ) Total Oz Cold Temperature Case Gasoline (no fog) Gasoline (fog) E85 (no fog) E85 (fog) TFog :00 AM 6:00 PM 6:00 AM 6:00 PM 6:00 AM Time of Day 61
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