Study of By-Products of Copper, Lead, Zinc and Nickel

Transcription

1 Study of By-Products of Copper, Lead, Zinc and Nickel Curtis Stewart Head of Economics and Environment ILZSG/INSG III International Conference By-Product Metals in Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Wroclaw May 15, 2013

2 Agenda The Study Groups The Joint By-Product Study Scope and Methodology Overview of Findings by Metal General Conclusions Questions & Answers

3 The Study Groups Three independent intergovernmental organisations set up within the UN system: International Lead and Zinc Study Group (1959) 30 members International Nickel Study Group (1990) 15 members International Copper Study Group (1992) 23 members 3

4 Data Provision Monthly Bulletins of Statistics on Copper, Lead & Zinc and Nickel Biannual/annual reporting on mine, smelter an refinery start-ups, closures, expansions and planned development Reporting on smelting and refining capacity and other plant details Publication of data on principal end uses of metals Studies on trends in downstream metals sectors Interactive data on lead and zinc accessible through internet Historical data series available on request Monthly press releases distributed widely 4

5 A Forum for Discussion Markets: forecasts of supply and demand for metals a year ahead Trade: monitoring of international trade in metals Environmental policy: sharing information on approaches to regulation Industry Advisory Panel: metals industry executives provide input to member governments Study Group Sessions: up to 200 participants at ILZSG (the largest) 5

6 Sources: KITECH, US Dept. of Energy, EU RMI, EC JRC IET Policy Context

7 By-Product and Co-Product Metals The metal wheel (after Reuter et al. (2005) and Verhoef et al. (2004), with permission of A.M. Reuter) 7

8 Project Scope Selection criteria of the by-product metals: Linked to the production of study group metals No or limited ownproduction infrastructure Typically have high value Increasing use in new technologies e.g. electronics, renewable energy Scope of the study: Lead and Zinc: indium, germanium, bismuth, tellurium Nickel: scandium, platinum group metals, cobalt Copper: cobalt, rhenium, tellurium, selenium, rare earths, molybdenum

9 Methodology Methodology: Review of the literature Web-based survey of producers, consumers, traders Expert industry interviews Research conducted January-April 2012

10 Outcomes of the project Joint Study Groups By-Product Metals Study Report Study of By-Products of Copper, Lead, Zinc and Nickel on the production, use and trade of the by-product metals and the outlook for supply/demand for each metal Directory of mines, smelters and refineries, planned new projects, secondary production, ownership of facilities and contact information

11 Joint Study Groups By-Product Metals Study Principal Metal Mine Production (tonnes) By-product Metal Production (tonnes) Lead 4,500,000 Bismuth 8,500 Zinc 12,400,000 Germanium* 118 Indium* 640 Cobalt 98,000 Nickel 1,800,000 Platinum Group Metals 472 Scandium* 10 # Copper 16,100,000 Cobalt 98,000 Molybdenum 250,000 Rhenium 46 # Selenium* 2,600 # Tellurium* 450 # Rare Earth Elements 130,000 Main Source: USGS (2012), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2012; * Refinery Production; # Industry Estimates

12 Bismuth: Production Lead, tungsten as sources China, Peru and Mexico as largest suppliers Difficult to get hold of accurate and nonconflicting data Belgium as major destination for further processing Peru 13% Mine Production of Bismuth Mexico 12% Other countries 5% Sources of Bismuth 45% 55% 0% 50% 100% Tungsten Lead China 70% Source: USGS, Industry estimates

13 Bismuth: Use Metal additives & alloys around ¾ of use Chemicals & pharmaceuticals ¼ Mature, slow growing markets Possible use in lead free solders Generally not seen as at risk Bismuth, min 99.99% ($/lb) Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals & Cosmetics 26% Uses of Bismuth (US) Other uses 0.5% Bismuth Alloys 7% Sources: USGS, Metal Pages Metallurgical Additives 67%

14 Indium: Production China as main source of virgin indium (quotas) Highly developed scrap reclaim industry Large scope for increased recovery: Peru/Bolivia Zn concentrates Improve recovery efficiency Sources of Indium (t) Belgium 5% Virgin Indium Refinery Production Brazil 1% Other countries 5% Reclaim Virgin Canada 10% Japan 11% China 53% Source: USGS, Indium Corporation Korea 15%

15 Indium: Use Flat panel displays as major market (+reclaim) Substitution discussed, but unlikely in short term Growth markets of LEDs, solar, smart phones Investment vehicles In Price, min %, (US$/kg) Applications of Virgin Indium Semis & Misc., 8% LEDs, 3% Batteries ; 5% Photo- Voltaics, 8% Thermal Interface, 6% Alloy/ compoun d 4% Solders; 10% Sources: Indium Corporation, Metal Pages Flat Panel Displays; 56%

16 Germanium: Production Germanium Supply China as main source of germanium supply Mostly recovered from zinc, but also coal ash in China Potential to increase supply Efficient recycling of postindustrial germanium scrap Canada 15% Finland 5% USA 12% CIS 3% China 65% Sources of Germanium 74% 26% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Zinc Coal Source: USGS, Indium Corporation

17 Germanium: Use Infrared and fibre optics as largest markets Potential growth in electronics & solar Miniaturisation of semiconductors Ge Dioxide Price, min %, (US$/kg) Others 15% Electronics & solar 15% PET catalyst s 20% Worldwide Use of Germanium Infrared optics 30% Fibre optics 20% Sources: USGS, Metal Pages

18 Palladium: Production Annual supply 280t Mine production: PGM dominant ores Ni-Cu by-product Large volumes recycled (mostly autocatalysts) Dwindling Russian stocks Norilsk with large planned expansion of production North America 6% Recycling 21% Others 2% Zimbabw e 2% World Palladium Supply Russian Stocks 11% South Africa 28% Russia Primary 30% Source: Johnson Matthey

19 Palladium: Use Autocatalysts as main market (improve vehicle emissions) Strong market outlook Pd interchangeable with platinum to some extent Pd Prices, 99.95% (US$/troy oz) Electrical 16% Investment 7% Palladium Demand Jewellery 7% Other 1% Dental 7% Chemical 4% Sources: Johnson Matthey, Metal Pages Autocatalyst 58%

20 Rhodium & Ruthenium Each around 30t markets Mostly from PGM dominant ores and from South Africa Both with one main application (vulnerable to substitution) History of volatile prices 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 Rh Rh & Ru Demand (t) Ru Other Glass Electrochemical Chemical Autocatalyst Electrical Rhodium ($US/troy oz) Ruthenium ($US/troy oz) Sources: Johnson Matthey, Metal Pages

21 Scandium: Production Very small opaque market Soviet stockpile as historical source (now dwindling) By-product sources: China: Sn, W, Ti, RE tailings Russia/Ukraine: Phosphates Two main pipeline projects (both Australia): Ni-Co by-product (Metallica) Sc sole product (EMC/Jervois) Russia/ Ukraine, 3 World Scandium Supply (t) Soviet Stockpile s, 2-3 China; 7 Sources: Industry Estimates

22 Scandium: Use Aluminium alloys as main market Fuel cells as possible emerging use Market development necessary alongside new supply High prices attractive, $3,300 per kg (99.5% purity) Rare earth trade restrictions applicable to scandium Applications for Scandium 85% 10% 5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Aluminium alloys Lighting Fuel Cells Sources: Industry estimates

23 Overview of Findings Latest Production Statistics: Principal Metal Mine Production (tonnes) By-product Metal Production (tonnes) Molybdenum 250,000 Cobalt 98,000 Rhenium 54 Copper 16,100,000 Selenium 2,600 Tellurium 450 Bismuth 8,500 Rare Earth Elements 130,000 Sources: USGS & Industry Estimates

24 Molybdenum: Production Supply split between: Mo-only and Cu-Mo China and United States as major producers Some dislocation in mine and roasting capacity Chile 15% Peru 7% Mine Production Mexico 4% China 39% Mine Capacity by Type Canada 3% 48% 52% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Mo-only Cu-Mo United States 25% CIS 4% Other Asia 3% Sources: USGS & Roskill

25 Molybdenum: Use Diverse end-markets: importance of steel alloys Growth of 3.6% p.a.to 2020 LME traded; low volumes Export levies: China, Russia Stockpiles: Japan, Korea Power Gen., 8% Process Industry; 8% Use by End-Use Industry Others; 7% Aerospace / Defence, 3% Automotive, 14% Other Transport; 7% Mo Oxide Price, min 57%, (US$/kg) Oil & Gas; 18% Mech. Eng. 12% Sources: IMOA, Metal Pages Electronic & Medical, 2% Building/ Constr., 6% Chemical/ Petrochemical, 15%

26 Cobalt: Production Cu, Ni & primary supply Trade of ores for refining Large number of pipeline projects oversupply High recycling rate (68%) Primar y cobalt, 10% Copper, Other, 35% Sources of Cobalt Nickel, 55% Refined Mined Cobalt Mine and Refinery Production 39% 5% 25% 8% 49% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Australia Canada China Other Asia DR Congo Zambia Other Africa Cuba Europe Russia Brazil Sources: USGS, CDI

27 Cobalt: Use Diverse end-markets; recent growth in batteries Possible substitution in Li-ion batteries REACH Concerns (5 SVHCs) Stockpiles: Japan, Korea, China, United States LME traded; low volumes Co Metal Price, min. 99.3% (US$/kg) Batteries 27% Other 9% End use of Primary Cobalt Pigment 10% Catalysts 9% Sources: CDI, Metal Pages Superalloys 19% Hardfacing & Other Alloys 6% Magnets 7% Carbides & Tooling 13%

28 Rhenium: Production By-product from Copper Porphyry (Mo) Importance of Chile, emergence of Poland Limited pipeline of projects Efforts to improve recycling efficiency World Rhenium Production (t) Source: USGS Russia Armenia Canada Other Kazakhstan Poland Peru United States Chile

29 Rhenium: Use Importance of (aerospace) superalloys Growth in aerospace engines to result in rationing substitution/reduction of rhenium content No major stockpiles or restrictions High and volatile prices Use of Rhenium Rhenium Price, min. 99.9%, (US$/kg) Other Superalloys, 21% Catalyst s9% Other; 7% Aerospace Superalloys, 63% Sources: Lipmann Walton, Roskill, Metal Pages

30 Selenium: Production By-product of copper, recoverable from slimes Incomplete official data industry estimates Concentration varies highest for refineries in Japan, Korea, CIS Often not recovered Technology shift to SE- EW may hurt recovery North America 11% Other Asia 12% Selenium Refinery Production Japan 19% Latin America 7% Europe 22% China 20% CIS 9% Source: Industry Estimates

31 Selenium: Use China as main consumer: Electrolytic Mn production Uncertain short term outlook Some risk of substitution Modest use in solar Se Price, min. 99.5%, (US$/kg) Pigments ; 10% Electrical ; 10% Agricultural/ biological, 10% Applications for Selenium Metallur gy; 10% Sources: STDA, Metal Pages Glass; 25% Electrolytic Mn, 40%

32 Tellurium: Production By-product of copper, recoverable from slimes Lack of official data Diverse supply, but fewer high purity refiners Often not recovered, or efficiency not high Technology shift to SE- EW may hurt recovery Gold as possible source Other Asia 16% Japan 16% Tellurium Refinery Production North America 7% Latin America 1% China 19% Europe 30% CIS 11% Source: Industry Estimates

33 Tellurium: Use CdTe solar as major market: Long term strong growth, short term weakness Some applications price sensitive or could be substituted Recent price falls 500,0 400,0 300,0 200,0 100,0 0,0 Te Metal Price, min 99.99%, (US$/kg) Rubber Industry 5% Metallur gy 15% Applications for Tellurium Thermoelectric modules 30% Others 10% Solar 40% Sources: STDA, Metal Pages

34 Rare Earth Elements: Production Dominance of China, large fall in quotas in 2010 Tightening of China production Numerous pipeline projects Limited prospects from copper Development of recycling 0 China Export Quotas (t REO) e Sources: US Dept. Energy, TMR, Lynas Others 5,6% Nd 19,8% Rare Earth Supply by Element Y Dy 11,0% 1,9% Pr 5,7% La 24,8% Ce 31,2%

35 Barriers to By-Product Recovery All Lead/Zinc Not present in ore/ concentrate Nickel Outside core business Copper 0% 50% 100% Sources: Oakdene Hollins Industry Survey

36 General Conclusions Spectrum of availability of data: Government, industry could collaborate to improve it Better trade statistics could be recorded Economics of by-production: Mo, Co, REEs with primary production Bi, Re, Se, Te, In, Ge solely as by-products Market outlook strongest for In, Te, REEs, Re Considerable opportunities to increase recovery of certain byproducts or its efficiency Wastes could be sold on for by-product recovery (Cu) Recovery needs to be in-process at refineries (Zn and Pb)

37 Study of By-Products of Copper, Lead, Zinc and Nickel THANK YOU! Curtis Stewart Head of Economics and Environment ILZSG/INSG III International Conference By-Product Metals in Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Wroclaw May 15, 2013