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1 UNITED KINGDOM FRANCE BELGIUM NETHERLANDS GERMANY POLAND RUSSIA LITHUANIA LATVIA CZECH REP. SLOVAKIA AUSTRIA SWITZERLAND HUNGARY CROATIA ROMANIA BULGARIA UKRAINE RUSSIA TURKEY GREECE PORTUGAL SPAIN ITALY DENMARK SWEDEN ESTONIA NORWAY FINLAND IRELAND SERBIA ALBANIA BELARUS MONTENEGRO UNITED KINGDOM FRANCE BELGIUM NETHERLANDS GERMANY POLAND RUSSIA LITHUANIA LATVIA CZECH REP. SLOVAKIA AUSTRIA SWITZERLAND HUNGARY CROATIA ROMANIA BULGARIA UKRAINE RUSSIA TURKEY GREECE PORTUGAL SPAIN ITALY DENMARK SWEDEN ESTONIA NORWAY FINLAND IRELAND SERBIA ALBANIA BELARUS MONTENEGRO
2 BELAR LATV LITHUANIA RUSSIA ANY POLAND CZECH REP. UKRAINE SLOVAKIA AUSTRIA HUNGARY CROATIA ROMANIA
3 Where to invest in POLAND? MAP OF RETAIL GAPS Part 2 SOUTHERN POLAND
4 Colliers International Research and Consultancy Research and Consultancy department at Colliers International undertakes research and advisory services for Clients in the area of Polish real estate market in particular; office, retail, industrial and hotel. Our knowledge is supported by years of experience and devised analytical methods, which support our Clients in the decision-making processes, identifying opportunities and threats and possible scenarios resulting from the changing market conditions. Services provided by the Department include economic analysis and market studies of the real estate market with respect to future market trends, feasibility study, competition analysis, investment strategies, analysis of the location, etc. Our database includes the most current information on the real estate market in Poland, and our close cooperation with Colliers agency departments allows for a better understanding of individual needs of our Customers. 2 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
5 Dear Sirs, It is my great pleasure to introduce the next part of Research and Consultancy Department report WHERE TO INVEST IN POLAND? MAP OF RETAIL GAPS. The publication identifies potential investment opportunities on the Polish retail market in small cities. This report is released in six parts, which are published on the quarterly basis - the second part focuses on the Southern Poland (Śląskie & Małopolskie). I hope you will find this publication interesting, informative and useful in making your business decisions. If you would like to receive the first part of the report or more detailed information about investment opportunities on the retail market in Poland, or any other publication prepared by our department, please contact us on: or dominika.jedrak@colliers.com We hope you will enjoy reading it. Kind regards Dominika Jędrak Director Research and Consultancy COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 3
6 Southern Poland Voivodships Śląskie Małopolskie 4 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
7 Introduction The aim of the report WHERE TO INVEST IN POLAND? MAP OF RETAIL GAPS is to identify potential investment opportunities on the Polish retail market in smaller cities. Retail markets in major Polish agglomerations are already quite well recognised and developed (although this does not necessarily mean that they are saturated in terms of retail space), whereas smaller cities can carry a significant, yet undiscovered potential and therefore it is worth to take a closer look at them. The purpose of this report is to investigate and identify these retail gaps. The report will be released in six parts and will be published on a quarterly basis. Each part of the report will be dedicated to a separate Polish region: 1. CENTRAL REGION 2. SOUTHERN REGION (PART 2) > > Śląskie > > Małopolskie 3. SOUTH-WESTERN REGION 4. NORTHERN REGION 5. NORTH-WESTERN REGION 6. EASTERN REGION The report provides an overview of retail markets in cities with populations between thousand inhabitants. Cities are analysed in terms of both existing and planned modern retail supply, as well as economic indicators, such as unemployment rate and purchasing power. Based on the results of this analysis the map of retail gaps is created. The map defines new trade routes, which cover the cities with high potential due to the combination of limited supply of modern retail space and favourable economic parameters. Such potential gaps represent an interesting alternative to larger cities, which are already relatively well served in terms of existing retail space. Smaller cities can present an interesting option for investors who wish to gain exposure in new and prospective locations. The map of new trade routes may become the first step in identifying locations which offer real opportunities for successful development. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 5
8 WHERE TO INVEST SOUTHERN POLAND Retail Markets in Small Cities Retail markets in small cities differ significantly from each other, both in terms of their degree of development as well as local circumstances, and it can, therefore be quite difficult to compare them and obtain conclusive results. However, there are certain key elements that determine the success of a planned investment in a particular location, such as local authorities attitude and infrastructure development. These can be important factors that may facilitate the investment process, or, on the contrary make it almost impossible. Identifying a particular location requires detailed analysis of local conditions, both in terms of existing and future competition, as well as socio-economic situation, planned infrastructure investment etc. Compared to large agglomerations, where retail markets have been developing pretty steadily, in smaller cities the situation is slightly different. In the majority of cities over 30 thousand inhabitants there are already local as well as chain supermarkets; DIY stores with building materials, home and garden articles; furniture stores and small department stores, mostly with local tenants. What distinguishes retail markets in particular cities is the presence in some of them of a modern retail shopping centre, which has delivered new quality and offers new retail experience to consumers on the local market. Investors looking for new opportunities in smaller cities make their decisions based on many factors, such as socio-economic situation, existing and planned competition or the distance from a larger urban agglomeration. Therefore, not all cities of similar size will be similarly assessed in terms of investment potential. The picture of any given retail market changes significantly with the opening of a modern retail shopping centre, which is able to attract bigger, well known retail chains. The analysis of retail space in the following part of this report consists mainly of modern schemes with min. 5,000 m 2 GLA, which represents a scale of development with the potential to attract significant custom and impact on a market. DEFINITIONS* Shopping centre a retail property that is planned, built and managed as a single entity, comprising units and communal areas, with a minimum gross leasable area (GLA) of 5,000 m 2, and a minimum of 10 retail units. Retail park also known as a power centre, is consistently designed, planned and managed scheme that comprises mainly medium- and large-scale specialist retailers ( big boxes or power stores ). Factory outlet centre is a consistently designed, planned and managed scheme with separate store units, where manufacturers and retailers sell merchandise at discounted prices that may be surplus stock, prior-season or slow selling. Purchasing power total amount of goods and services which residents of particular area can buy within a year. Purchasing power for retail trade total value of goods which residents of particular area can buy within a year in shops. Purchasing power index per capita the index presents the relation of purchasing power for retail trade of the population of the given region to the average purchasing power in Poland. * based on ICSC and GfK Polonia 6 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
9 WHERE TO INVEST SOUTHERN POLAND Śląskie Voivodship LOCATION Southern Poland, bordered by four voivodships: Opolskie to the West Łódzkie to the North Świętokrzyskie to the North-East Małopolskie to the East STATES BORDERING Czech Republic Slovakia Myszków Zawiercie POPULATION AREA 4.6 mln 12,333 sq. km. UPPER SILESIA CONURBATION CAPITAL MAIN CITIES Katowice Katowice, Częstochowa, Sosnowiec, Gliwice Racibórz Żory Katowice The analysis of cities in Śląskie Voivodship should consider the special situation of this market resulting from mutual connections between more than 20 cities located close to each other, which form the Upper Silesia Conurbation. It is inhabited by more than 2.2 mln people and includes: Będzin, Bytom, Chorzów, Czeladź, Dąbrowa Górnicza, Gierałtowice, Gliwice, Jaworzno, Katowice, Knurów, Mikołów, Mysłowice, Piekary Śląskie, Radzionków, Ruda Śląska, Siemianowice Śląskie, Sosnowiec, Świętochłowice, Tarnowskie Góry, Tychy, Wojkowice and Zabrze. Many of these cities merge with each other and form one urban area. The difficulty of identifying clear boundaries of individual cities as well as good communication network result in treating the area of the Upper Silesia Conurbation as one market. The report presents main data for cities being a part of the conurbation, however it does not analyse their investment potential, as these cities are included in the retail market of the Upper Silesia Conurbation and require different and individual approach. Wodzisław Śląski Jastrzębie -Zdrój Czechowice -Dziedzice Cieszyn Żywiec COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 7
10 WHERE TO INVEST SOUTHERN POLAND ŚLĄSKIE Selected statistical data (Table 1.) Population Unemployment rate (%) Purchasing power index per inhabitant ** Poland 38,200, Śląskie Voivodship 4,637, Katowice 305, Jaworzno 95, Jastrzębie-Zdrój 93, Mysłowice 75, Siemianowice Śląskie 70, Żory 62, Tarnowskie Góry 60,887 11* Będzin 58, * Piekary Śląskie 58, Racibórz 56, * Świętochłowice 53, Zawiercie 52, * Wodzisław Śląski 49, * Knurów 39, * Mikołów 39, * Czechowice-Dziedzice 35,078 10* Cieszyn 34, * Czeladź 33, * Myszków 32, * Żywiec 32, * * The data at poviat level ** Purchasing power in selected cities in relation to the average in voivodship based on data from Central Statistical Office 8 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
11 WHERE TO INVEST SOUTHERN POLAND Modern retail space in cities with population between 30 and 100 thousand inhabitants in Śląskie Voivodship: > > 19 cities with population between 30 and 100 thousand inhabitants, 10 of which are part of the Upper Silesia Conurbation. > > Further analysis concerns 9 cities outside the Upper Silesia Conurbation: Jastrzębie Zdrój, Żory, Racibórz, Zawiercie, Wodzisław Śląski, Czechowice-Dziedzice, Cieszyn, Myszków, Żywiec. > > At the end of 2011 modern shopping centres with min. 5,000 m 2 GLA were present only in four cities. > > The majority of modern retail space (approximately 25,500 m 2 each) is located in Jastrzębie Zdrój in two shopping centres (Galeria Zdrój and Galeria Jastrzębie) and in Żory, only in one retail project Auchan shopping centre with Leroy Merlin and Decathlon store. > > Bigger shopping centres are also located in Żywiec (Tesco, Galeria Lider) and Racibórz (Auchan). > > In analysed cities there are also a number of smaller retail schemes (less than 5,000 m 2 GLA), which can be considered as modern space, including Galeria Młyńska in Racibórz or Centrum Handlowe Targówek in Żywiec. Modern retail space (Table 2.) Modern retail space (min. 5,000 m 2 GLA) Jastrzębie-Zdrój 25,600 Existing retail schemes Galeria Zdrój (2009), Galeria Jastrzębie (2010) Żory 25,500 Auchan (2001) Racibórz 15,000 Auchan (2007) Żywiec 11,700 Cities in the Upper Silesia Conurbation Tesco (2005), Galeria Lider (2008) Mysłowice 22,600 Real (1999) Siemianowice Śląskie Tarnowskie Góry 23,800 6,400 CH Echo (2000) Tesco (2003), Carrefour (2006), CH Tarnowskie Góry (2011) Świętochłowice 7,900 CH Echo (2000) Mikołów 24,000 Auchan (2000) Czeladź 55,400 M1 (1997) COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 9
12 WHERE TO INVEST SOUTHERN POLAND Modern retail schemes under construction and planned: > > By the end of 2014 developers plan to build first shopping centres in Zawiercie, Czechowice-Dziedzice and Wodzisław Śląski, as well as in cities belong to Upper Silesia Conurbation Jaworzno and Piekary Śląskie. > > At the moment all retail schemes are at the planning stage, however Galeria Karuzela in Wodzisław Śląski will probably be finished first. It will be built on the site of the old bus station and the developer, Retail Concept, has already demolished station buildings. The shopping centre with approx. 8,000 m 2 should be completed at the end of 2012 or beginning of Śląskie - Existing and planned retail supply (m 2 ) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Existing modern retail space Planned retail space Modern retail space under construction and planned (Table 3.) Main planned retail schemes Status Area (m 2 GLA) Planned completion Zawiercie Centrum Handlowe planned 21, Wodzisław Śląski Galeria Karuzela planned 8, / 2013 Czechowice-Dziedzice Stara Kablownia planned 14, Cities in Upper Silesia Conurbation Jaworzno Galeria Galena planned 35, Piekary Śląskie Centrum Handlowe planned 9, / 2014 UC-under construction 10 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
13 WHERE TO INVEST SOUTHERN POLAND Małopolskie Voivodship LOCATION Southern Poland, bordered by three voivodships: Śląskie to the West Świętokrzyskie to the North Olkusz Podkarpackie to the East Chrzanów STATES BORDERING Slovakia Oświęcim Kraków Bochnia POPULATION 3.3 mln AREA 15,183 sq. km. Nowy Sącz CAPITAL MAIN CITIES Kraków Kraków, Tarnów, Nowy Sącz Nowy Targ MAŁOPOLSKIE Selected statistical data (Table 4.) Population Unemployment rate (%) Purchasing power index per inhabitant ** Poland 38,200, Małopolskie Voivodship 3,297, Kraków 737, Nowy Sącz 84, Oświęcim 40, * Chrzanów 39, * Olkusz 37,264 15* Nowy Targ 33, * Bochnia 29, * * The data at poviat level ** Purchasing power in selected cities in relation to the average in voivodship based on data from Central Statistical Office COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 11
14 WHERE TO INVEST SOUTHERN POLAND Modern retail space in cities with population between 30 and 100 thousand inhabitants in Małopolskie Voivodship: > > 6 cities with population between 30 and 100 thousand inhabitants. > > In five cities there are modern retail schemes with min. 5,000 m 2 GLA. > > The largest supply of modern retail space (64,800 m 2 ) is located in Nowy Sącz, in four shopping centres: Real, Europa II Plaza, Galeria Sandecja and CH Gołąbkowice. The biggest and the newest shopping centre is CH Gołąbkowice (17,900 m 2 GLA) opened in > > Shopping centres present in other cities: Galeria Niwa Oświęcim, MAX Chrzanów, CH Atrium Olkusz and Galeria Rondo Bochnia. There is also one smaller shopping centre in Nowy Targ Galeria Buy & Fly. > > There is one special case city worth mentioning in the analysis Zakopane, which is situated in the foothills of the Tatra Mountains. It is one of the most popular holiday destinations in Poland, known as the winter capital of Poland. Although the official population of the city is less than 30 thousand, the number of tourists visiting Zakopane is several times higher than the number of inhabitants. Intensive tourist traffic encourages trading and attracts international brands, such as Parfois, H&M, Diverse, which are located mainly along the elegant promenade of the city Krupówki street. Modern retail space (Table 5.) Modern retail space (min. 5,000 m 2 GLA) Existing retail schemes Modern retail schemes under construction and planned: > > In analysed cities at the end of 2011 there was one retail scheme under construction Galeria Trzy Korony in Nowy Sącz and it should be delivered to the market in the first half of > > There is also one retail scheme planned in Chrzanów Kasztelania Centre. Małopolskie - Existing and planned retail supply (m 2 ) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Existing modern retail space Planned retail space Modern retail space under construction and planned (Table 6.) Nowy Sącz Main planned retail schemes Trzy Korony Status Area (m 2 ) Planned completion UC 32,000 H Nowy Sącz 64,800 Real (2001), Europa II Plaza (2001), Galeria Sandecja (2009), CH Gołąbkowice (2011) Chrzanów Kasztelania Centre UC-under construction planned 18, / 2014 Oświęcim 13,500 Galeria Niwa (2009) Chrzanów 9,000 MAX (1999) Olkusz 7,400 CH Atrium (2002) Bochnia 12,600 Galeria Rondo (2010) 12 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
15 WHERE TO INVEST SOUTHERN POLAND Summary Based on the analysis carried out, covering the analysis of modern retail space and socio-economic factors, investment potential of surveyed cities has been identified. The data is presented in the following tables. The potential resulting from socio-economic factors (Table 7. and Table 8.) has been identified on the basis of the evaluation of unemployment rate and purchasing power ( favourable situation; - unfavourable situation) and presented with appropriate indicators: - high - neutral - low ŚLĄSKIE Investment potential resulting from socio-economic factors (Table 7.) MAŁOPOLSKIE Investment potential resulting from socio-economic factors (Table 8.) Unemployment rate * Purchasing power ** Potential Unemployment rate * Purchasing power ** Potential Jastrzębie- Zdrój + + Żory + - Racibórz + + Zawiercie - - Wodzisław Śląski + - Czechowice- Dziedzice + - Cieszyn + + Myszków - - Nowy Sącz + - Oświęcim + + Chrzanów - + Olkusz - + Nowy Targ + + Bochnia + + * Unemployment rate: + lower than Polish average; - higher than Polish average ** Purchasing power: + higher than the average for voivodship; - lower than the average for voivodship Żywiec - + * Unemployment rate: + lower than Polish average; - higher than Polish average ** Purchasing power: + higher than the average for voivodship; - lower than the average for voivodship COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 13
16 WHERE TO INVEST SOUTHERN POLAND The analysis of retail markets (including existing and planned schemes) in the cities with population between 30 and 100 thousand inhabitants and results obtained from the analysis of socio-economic situation led to identifying the investment potential of analysed cities. The results are presented by appropriate colours (Table 9. and Table 10.), which correspond with cities designation on the map. - high investment potential, low investment risk - medium potential and risk - limited potential, higher risk ŚLĄSKIE Investment potential resulting from the development of retail market and socio-economic factors see Table 7. (Table 9.) MAŁOPOLSKIE Investment potential resulting from the development of retail market and socio-economic factors see Table 8. (Table 10.) Investment potential Investment potential Jastrzębie-Zdrój Nowy Sącz Żory Oświęcim Racibórz Chrzanów Zawiercie Olkusz Wodzisław Śląski Nowy Targ Czechowice-Dziedzice Bochnia Cieszyn Myszków Żywiec 14 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
17 WHERE TO INVEST CENTRAL POLAND Map of retail gaps in Poland MAP OF RETAIL GAPS IN POLAND The map of retail gaps in Poland identifies the investment potential of smaller cities in particular voivodships and sets new trade routes. Three trade routes were indicated: blue, red and black, which point out existing opportunities and the level of investment risk. Established colours of trade routes correspond with the degree of difficulty of tourist trails. Blue indicates low difficulty level, which in business terms translates into high potential and relatively low investment risk. The red route from the investment point of view presents slightly lower potential of a particular retail market and higher risk, while black indicates the highest difficulty level and cities assigned to this route are considered as very risky for investors at the moment (however, in longer term the situation in these cities may change). Myszków - high investment potential, low investment risk UPPER SILESIA CONURBATION Zawiercie Olkusz - medium potential and risk Racibórz Katowice Chrzanów - limited potential, higher risk The Upper Silesia Conurbation: Będzin Bytom Chorzów Czeladź Dąbrowa Górnicza Gierałtowice Gliwice Jaworzno Katowice Knurów Mikołów Mysłowice Piekary Śląskie Radzionków Ruda Śląska Siemianowice Śląskie Sosnowiec Świętochłowice Tarnowskie Góry Tychy Wojkowice Zabrze Wodzisław Śląski Jastrzębie -Zdrój Żory Cieszyn Czechowice -Dziedzice Oświęcim Żywiec Kraków Nowy Targ Bochnia Nowy Sącz The data in the report represents the situation at the end of This publication does not cover all aspects of the subject it deals with. This publication is not designed to provide legal advice or investment consultancy and therefore it cannot be considered as a basis for business decisions. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 15
18 Where to invest in POLAND? MAP OF RETAIL GAPS Mazowieckie Dolnośląskie Łódzkie Opolskie Śląskie PUBLISHED REPORTS: Part 1 Central Poland Part 2 Southern Poland Małopolskie COMING REPORT: Part 3 South-Western Poland (Dolnośląskie, Opolskie) to be published in JUNE 2012
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