GLOBAL TRENDS & DISRUPTORS IN INTERNATIONAL STUDENT REFERRALS

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1 GLOBAL TRENDS & DISRUPTORS IN INTERNATIONAL STUDENT REFERRALS Rod Hearps Vice President - Asia Pacific ICEF GmbH rhearps@icef.com April 16, 2016 ANZA Workshop Melbourne

2 Part 1 Student mobility agenda Rising demand + increasing diversification & competition Main host countries / study destination trends Key drivers for international student referrals & enrolments What role do migration policy & work rights play? Major players - USA, UK, Australia, Germany, Canada, France, China, New Zealand Rising popularity of non-english speaking destination countries 2

3 Part 2 Disruption & innovation agenda Rise in industry regulation globally Rise in industry consolidation / vertical integration Rise of transnational + in-country delivery models Rise of web based technologies Rise of digital language learning Rise of international schools 3

4 Rising demand in student mobility Growth in internationalisation of tertiary education ( ) m m m m m m m m m In 2012 over 4.5 million students enrolled in higher education abroad Exponential growth of 114% since 2000, with annual growth rate over 8% If 8% annual growth continues to 2020, numbers will be 8.3 million Australia, Austria, Luxemburg, New Zealand, Switzerland and the UK have the highest ratios of international students vs local students Largest supply markets are China, India & South Korea Asian students represent 53% of all HE international students Source: OECD, Education at a Glance

5 Main hosts - increasing worldwide competition US, UK, Germany, France, Australia, Canada host 52% of international students 29% of students study in the US and the UK (51% in 2000) Europe receives 48%, North America 21% and Asia 18% International students has almost tripled in Oceania since 2000, although the region only hosts 8% of the total amount Source: OECD, Education at a Glance

6 Increasing diversification & competition HEI s are now competing for the best students HEI s are switching from supply to customer orientation Quality of education and student experience is everything Marketing & communications strategies ever evolving Role of education agents is crucial in student enrolments 6

7 Key drivers for international student referrals and enrolments brand / reputation - esp. Chinese students. Eg. To USA for undergrad. work opportunities while studying + post graduation employment opp s = ROI residency opportunities - esp. Indian students global rankings & ratings of programmes & institutions price / budget - esp. Korean students scholarships - Saudi, Brazil, Kuwait (now frozen), Kazhakstan recommendations from agents recommendations from friends social media & peer reviews very important politics, election outcomes, price of oil 7

8 What role do migration policy & work rights play? migration policy - very major role, esp. for Indian students major impacts on Australian student numbers over past 7 years Canada too, at both national and provincial levels, with recent declines in ESL sector due to loss of work rights work opportunities during study - especially (Eastern) European students post-graduation work opportunities - Australia & France on the rise due to generous opportunities See Survey says post-study work options a major factor in choice of destination 8

9 Education policy vs migration policy tension 8

10 Main host countries: USA #1 974,926 international students in US HE in 2014/15, a 10% increase China & India big growth drivers Indian posting growth of 29.4% Major government scholarship programmes, esp. Saudi Arabia, Brazil & Kuwait Latin America fastest-growing region 19% up for 2014/15 US outbound also grew in 2014/15, up 5% Top 5 for ESL in USA: Saudi Arabia, China, South Korea, Japan, Brazil Financial insecurity + easing of attitudes on use of agents are impacting 400% growth in no. of US institutions attending ICEF agent workshops. 82 in 2006 to 333 in

11 US educators working with agents (ICEF customer base ) Language Schools 300 Secondary and Boarding Schools Higher Education Total number of Canadian educators Higher Education Secondary / Boarding Language Year 10

12 UK #2 UK forcing graduates to leave before applying for graduate jobs, making it even harder for them to stay. Highly skilled graduates (especially Indian) are going elsewhere, eg. USA, Oz UK government growth strategy targeting realistic 15-20% growth in international HE students in next 5 years. April 2014 report = 1st international enrolment drop in 29 years. Almost 25% loss from EU students for undergrad courses & similar drop from Indian & Pakistani students enrolled in postgraduate. Main concerns: more restrictive UK immigration policy, massive fee increases, unfavourable post-study work rights compared to competitor destinations. Reputation issues with 47 schools de-registered in ,000 Chinese students studied in the UK in 2013/14, representing an increase of 5% over the year prior & 50% growth over the previous five years. Another 50,233 students were enrolled in British transnational education (TNE) programmes delivered in China. 13

13 Australia #3 Year-to-date Nov 2015 = 640,922 international students on student visas = 10.3% increase over same period HE sector = 42.4% of all enrolments China, India, Vietnam, South Korea & Thailand accounted for 51.1% By 2025 Austrade seeks to double to 1 million + 10 million students offshore. Eg. via transnational education (branches or franchised curricula) + online. Industry wary that current accommodation, employability & public perception problems could worsen as numbers increase. only 54,000 purpose-built student bedrooms available for 1.2 million students in Oz HE, however, investment is picking up dramatically Major risk = economic downturn, rising unemployment + UK style scenario = a restriction on work rights for students or removal of post study work rights ICEF Monitor: Australian education exports top AUS$19 billion in

14 Germany #4 Contending with Australia, France & China for number 3 rank DAAD report shows foreign enrolment is tracking well towards goal to host 350,000 students by 2020, having grown 7% between 2013 & ,000 students in 2015, nearly 7% increase over 2014 China & India largest sending markets + European markets notably Russia, Austria, France, Italy & Turkey Eased pathway to residency for highly skilled foreign students Offering part time & post study work rights Plans to phase out (already low) student fees, while Sweden & UK have introduced or raised fees Germany offers a large & growing number of courses delivered in English ICEF Monitor: Germany on pace to attract 350,000 foreign students 16

15 Canada #5 336,400 international students studied in Canada in 2014 (CBIE) Jan Canadian government announced ambitious target of 450,000 international students by 2022 from a base of 293,505 students in Top 5 source countries - China, India, South Korea, Saudi Arabia & France - accounted for more than half. CBIE survey found 50% of 2014 respondents indicated their intention to apply for permanent resident status English language sector experienced 9.3% drop in 2013 due to Foreign Service (visa) Office strike, loss of ESL study work rights + uncertainty about upcoming regulation changes. Biggest decrease since Previously experiencing rapid ESL growth. Enrolment in language programs increased marginally from 2013 to

16 France #6 France welcomed 298,902 foreign students in 2014/15, an increase of 1.29% over 2013/14 & total growth of 4.9% from 2010/11 43% from Africa, 26% Europe, 19% Asia, 8% Americas & 4% Middle East 41% of international students work during their stay Long-stay visas for up to 5 years + no need to renew student visas annually Graduates can stay for 1 year to seek work Proposal to increase use of English in universities prompted strong negative reaction (French law requires classes to be conducted in French) Ambitious goal to double international student numbers by 2025 ICEF Monitor: France aims to counter slowing international enrolment growth 15

17 China #? In 2014, US based IIE reported China in 3rd place, a huge & recent growth More Chinese institutions are offering programmes in English, a trend being replicated in Japan, Turkey, UAE and other markets Around 1,000 Chinese MOE approved joint & articulation programs for bachelor & postgraduate courses, mostly business related + engineering 14

18 New Zealand 2015 gave another strong year of growth - 91,062 student visas issued, a 13% increase over 2014 China & India main growth drivers with diversification / growth from USA, Philippines, Brazil, Sri Lanka & Colombia Institutes of Technology & Polytechnics (ITPs) & Private Training Establishments (PTEs) registered fastest growth among educational sectors Domestic university enrolment to decline through 2019, due to shrinking population of college-aged students ICEF Monitor: Full-year data confirms strong growth for New Zealand in

19 Main English Speaking Destination (MESD) Countries United Kingdom Canada United States New Zealand Australia 18

20 Rising popularity of non-mesd countries In 2010: 4.1 million tertiary students enrolled abroad: 42% enrolled in 1 of the 5 MESD Countries: Australia, NZ, USA, UK & Canada. This is a decline from 46.8% in The market share of the non-mesdc's has been increasing steadily. China, Malaysia and Singapore are all increasing their marketing activities & results in international student recruitment. In 2012 China reported almost 330,000 international students. Target is 500,000 by Both Asian and non-asian enrolments are increasing in China - students also pursuing work as HE students can work part-time since A survey by INTO of 880 agents found 20% promote China for Higher Ed studies over Germany or France, up from 3% last year. 78% send to the UK, 77% to the US and 51% to Australia. Latin American & African agents are the strongest to promote China. 19

21 Malaysia and other Asian study destinations Malaysia targeting 250,000 international students by 2025, with focus on trans-national from SE Asia + China, India & Gulf Region Malaysian Ministry of HE reports over 135,000 international students enrolled in 2014, up from 27,872 in 2002 & 80,750 in Attractive due to large number of international branch campuses such as EduCity with 8 well known int l universities. Malaysia s top 10 sending markets nearly all from Africa or Asia, and in 2014 included Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Libya, Nigeria, Pakistan,& Sudan Growing trend of Japanese & Korean students studying English in Asia eg. Fiji & The Philippines. Cheaper, holiday resort settings, 1:1 teaching + stepping stone to MESDC s International students in The Philippines increased from 41,443 in 2011 to 47,478 in 2012 (Bureau of Immigration) ICEF Monitor: ELT enrolment in the Philippines on the rise US and UK losing market share to regional destinations 20

22 Part 2 Disruption & innovation agenda Rise in industry regulation globally Rise in industry consolidation Rise of transnational + in-country delivery models Rise of web based technology Rise of digital language learning Rise of international schools 21

23 Rise in industry regulation globally Rise in regulation and training of agents / agencies by government & industry bodies. eg. AIRC, QEAC, IATC, CCEA, USATC, ENZRA, British Council, agency associations International Education Agent Project (Australia) - headed by IEAA As well as a rise in regulation of providers, for 3 main reasons: entering a more mature industry phase market size now more visible to governments & less under the radar more & more negaitve publicity = pressure on reputations + loss of enrolments / revenues + reputational damage & inconvenience from school closures 22

24 Rise in consolidation / vertical integration Mergers, acquisitions, closures + injection of venture capital Navitas, Academies Australasia, Intueri listed on Stock Exchanges Canada-based ILSC Education Group entered into a strategic partnership with private investment firm Quad Partners Vertical integration = schools buying up supply chain (agencies) eg. Loyalist Group (Canada) bought Uhak.com, South Korea s largest education agency, for CAN$8.1m + Kim Okran International Studies Centre Inc. for CAN$4.65m Kaplan bought Prolinguis (Switzerland) + Hands-On Education Consultants (Thailand) 23

25 Rise of transnational + in-country delivery models More students studying for UK HE qualifications outside UK vs inside UK. eg. in China, Malaysia, Dubai Exported curricula + qualifications delivered via local partners, especially popular in Asia (India, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam) India's goal: training 500 million people by new MoUs outline agreements between India s National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC) and 12 Canadian institutions Government mandated EFL teacher training in Vietnam, Malaysia &Thailand Making EFL study compulsory at younger ages = less demand later in life for ESL studied abroad? BBC: Universities compete by teaching in English 25

26 Rise of web based technology & learning MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses) inc. MOOECs. Big issue with completion rates eg. around 8%. Mobile & interactive learning needed to compete with chain schools like EF Student review based websites eg. Coursefinders.com Educationstars.com Gotostudy.com Booking platforms eg. Educationhify.com Edvisor.io Passportedu.com Bookandlearn.com 26

27 Rise of digital language learning First half 2015 Ed Tech investment tallies ranged from US$1.6 to US$2.5 billion Expanding field of providers, products & services for learning English online Digital English language learning revenues (projected) Global US$ 1.8 billion 3.2 billion Asia US$ 863 million 1.6 billion China US$ 323 million 932 million China - growth rate of 23.6% over past 5 years Over 200 million Chinese school children in 2013 Chinese government goal: to have entire K-12 student population online by 2023 ICEF Monitor: Investments in education technology reaching new highs in

28 Rise of international schools 8.4% rise in number of students in to 3,6 million students Over 7,000 schools worldwide. 42% offer UK curriculum, 23% offer American and 17% the IB Diploma Asia is fastest growing market with 2,2 million students - biggest growth in UAE, China, Hong Kong, Pakistan, India and Qatar. Future growth markets are Gulf countries, East Asia and Brazil 80% of demand is domestic, fuelled by local demand for quality education in English. Top local student nationalities: Thai, Kuwaiti, Mexican, Emirati, Spanish 28

29 Additional sources ICEF Monitor: Canadian government eases citizenship process for international students Shifting currencies expected to drive growth for more affordable destinations Number of Chinese outbound students up by 11% in 2014 The PIE News: What will shape international education in 2016? China Daily: China third most popular destination for international students Indian Express: UK rejects post-study work visa 28

30 Thank you For more details contact: Rod Hearps ICEF Monitor - for market intelligence and the latest industry updates. Subscribe for free at 29

31 subscribers 1+ million visitors 2.4+ million pageviews

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