State of the World Economy

Transcription

1 Currency Outlook and the State of the World Economy Robert Mundell Columbia University Keynote Speech at XXXV World Congress of the International Association of Financial Executives (IAFEI) October 11, 2004 Florence, Italy

2 Topics Key Trends in the World Economy The Rise of China Outlook for the Recovery Outlook for Currencies and Currency Area Formation

3 Key Background Factors in the Global Landscape Globalization The IT Revolution The Supply-Side Revolution The Advent of the Euro The Rise of China *

4 China in the World Economy, 2004 Canada Russia Korea $ Sweden RMB Taiwan India Indonesia Hong Kong Latin American & Caribbean Australia CFA Gulf Countries

5 China aunder Mao Under Mao, China collectivized Agriculture, encouraged population growth, tried the Great Leap Forward, and forced the Cultural Revolution against intellectuals and artists. They were disasters!

6 Mao made Capitalism a Crime; Deng De- criminalized i it. Deng and Mao, 1960

7 Deng on Socialism vs Capitalism Whether it s a white cat or a black cat, it doesn t matter as long as it catches mice!

8 The Third Generation Pushed the Market Economy Jiang Zemin, Hero of Pudong

9 China s Achievements Since Years of 9% Average Growth Exports from <1% to over 6 % of World Exports Stable Price Level/Exchange Rate (Since 1994) Annual FDI over $50 billion Strong Trade Position Foreign Exchange Reserves over $400 billion. Rapid Improvement in Living Standards

10 GDP Growth Rates: China and U.S. GDP Growth Rate of U.S and China China GDP Growth U.S GDP Growth Growt th Rate Year

11 Effects of Currency Appreciation on China Cut off FDI Big Drop in Growth Rate Aggravate problem of NPLs in Banks Aggravate loss-making SOEs Delay convertibility Increase Unemployment Cause Deflation Distress in Rural China Destabilize Southeast Asia

12 The Fourth Generation, born after the Long March HU Jintao. A Progressive

13 Conclusion About China China will not appreciate or float the RMB in the foreseeable future. China is on schedule to continue economic growth > 7% for the next decade. China s exports and imports will continue to soar. China s balance of trade on goods g and services will be roughly in equilibrium.

14 Global Outlook

15 Challenges for the Major Countries Absorbing and spreading the IT revolution Reducing Technological Unemployment Adjusting Entitlements to the Demographic Rev Overshooting of the Welfare State t Fitting China and India into the World Economy Currency Areas and Unstable Exchange Rates Assessing the Implications of the US Balance o Payments Deficit

16 US Economy Recovering at a Steady Clip Supply-Side Revolution The Great Expansion: The New Economy

17 Europe s Economy Recovery behind U.S. High Oil Prices, Strong Euro and Fiscal Deficits Need for Supply-Side Policy reforms and freer labor markets Challenge of integration of new members to EU

18 Economic Health of Countries as Measured by the Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom: Country Ranking out of 155 countries Hong Kong1 Singapore2 New Zealand 3 U.S. Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Estonia 4 U.K., Chile, Australia 9 Canada 15 Germany 20 Italy, Taiwan 29 Japan 35 S. Korea38 France 45 China, India 121 North Korea, Iraq155

19 Supply-Side Revolution: Top Personal Income Tax Rates, Selected Countries Change U. S Japan U.K Korea Portugal Sweden Italy Spain France Germany

20 Characteristics of the Global Slowdown Overcapacity in Hi-Tech Sector Why was this recession different? Job destruction permanent Race between Job Creation and Job Destruction Massive FDI Flows Productivity it Gains Inexorable

21 The Recovery US recovery on track Recovery with jobs Job creation exceeds job destruction. Profits at all-time high 4.0% growth outlook in 2004 Chinese economy booming

22 International Investment Position(2001), $trillion Country Assets Liabilities Nt Net U.S UK U.K Japan Germany France Italy 0.1(bn) 0.1(bn) 0 Canada 0.6(bn) 0.7(bn) -0.1 Russia 0.25(bn) 0.16(bn) 0.09 Brazil 0.1(bn) 0.4(bn) -0.3 Israel 0.07(bn) 0.1(bn) -0.03

23 Output growth Euro Area Japan U.S 3 2 Growth rate Year

24 Output growth Euro Area Japan U.S China rate Growth Year

25 Inflation Rates U.S Japan Euro Area China 2003Q3 2003Q1 2002Q3 2002Q1 2001Q3 2001Q1 2000Q3 2000Q1 1999Q3 1999Q1 1998Q3 1998Q1 Year Rate

26 Currency Areas and Exchange Rates The creation of the euro area changed the way economists think about exchange rates and the international ti monetary system. The euro area will accelerate productivity growth in Europe. EU Expansion means larger future euro area and greatly increased monetary ypower of Europe.

27 Monetary Power in the World Economy, 2004 Canada Russia Korea $ Sweden RMB Taiwan India Indonesia Hong Kong Latin American & Caribbean Australia CFA Gulf Countries

28 Exchange Rate: Dollar Strength Euro per Dollar 100 Yen per dollar 2003Q3 2003Q1 2002Q3 2002Q1 2001Q3 2001Q1 2000Q3 2000Q1 1999Q3 1999Q1

29 Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate, US$ per ECU/EURO Exchange Rate Year Rate

30 Harmful Effects Exchange Rate Instability to Europe Creates instability of financial markets Shifts between domestic and international industries Abitrary effects on indebtedness US dominates

31 The Currency Jungle Dollar, Euro, Yen major currencies Three Islands of Price Stability but with Gyrating Exchange Rates $/, /, $/ Cause of Crises: Asian Crisis, Japanese problem New Currency Area Formation Likely. 5/19/2008 Robert A. Mundell 31

32 An Asian Currency by 2015? India $ Russia Baht YEN P-PesoP 15 RMB HK$ RINGITT Australia-NZ WON Rupiah Latin Dollar Africa Arab Bloc EURO

33 C$ Latin Lat$ Dollar APEC Solution? Simple if Japan fixed yen to dollar, like China. Rupee Pakistan C YEN RMB $ $ $ R bl Ruble RINGITT Africa EURO Arab Bloc

34 Alternative Scenario: APEC + Europe? $ D E Y Euro Area India Russia RMB Africa Latin Dollar Indonesia Dinar Area

35 Need for a Better International Monetary System Need for a viable international monetary system Universal Unit of Account I t ti l A h f N ti l International Anchor for National Currencies

36 Need for a Global Currency System Present international monetary system not good for small countries outside the dominant zones. Need for a viable international monetary system All developing countries have a large stake in international monetary reform

37 Unfinished Business International monetary reform Growing recognition of need for world currency. Possible stabilization of $,, as platform for a world currency, called the INTORO.

38 Monetary Reform by 2020? $ India RMB Latin Dollar Russia Arab Bloc Africa

39 Summary US Recovery on Track 4.0% in 2004 but risk factor is whether consumption will hold up. China now a big player in world economy Europe s Recovery with a lag Japan mediocre recovery Oil Price Risk Factor

40 Exchange Rate Outlook Euro unlikely to slip below $1.05 even if US recovery faster. Likely range between 1.07 and Dollar likely to remain between 100 and 112 over next year RMB will remain fixed at $1.00 = RMB

41 GRAZIE