Model Formulation to Estimate Manpower Demand for the Real-Estate Construction Projects in India

Transcription

1 Formulaion o Esimae Manpower Demand for he Real-Esae Consrucion Projecs in India Anil L. Agarwal NICMAR; 25/1, Balewadi, Pune (India) anilagarwal@nicmar.ac.in B. L. Rajpu NICMAR; 25/1, Balewadi, Pune (India) babalurajpu@nicmar.ac.in Er. Sapue Mangesh A. Gherzi Easern Ld., Mumbai (India) sapuema@yahoo.in DOI /omcj Research Paper Keywords Manpower, Esimaion, Real-esae, Planning, Regression Real Esae as well as Infrasrucure consrucions are a par of he developmen and indicaors of he growh of he economy. A any poin of ime huge amoun of consrucion is carried ou across pan India, wih naural cycle of ups and downs in he quanum of work execued per annum. Consrucion requires large number of manpower in he caegories of un-skilled, skilled and echnical for planning, monioring and execuion of hese projecs. Manpower demand esimaion is an essenial componen o faciliae manpower deploymen. The consrucion oupu and manpower consans are found o be he mos significan and sensiive facors deermining he demand of consrucion manpower. In his paper effors are made o formulae he model o assis in predicing manpower demand for effecive deploymen of he consrucion manpower from he conracor perspecive. 828 o r g a n i z a i o n, ech n o l o g y a n d ma n a g e m e n i n c o n s r u c i o n an inerna i o n a l j o u r n a l 5(2)2013

2 INTRODUCTION Manpower requiremen for he consrucion of real esae projecs is differen for he conracing agencies ha do he consrucion of he projec from he clien who carry ou he supervision of he consrucion. Being an imporan resource, proper planning of manpower on consrucion projecs is a major concern for Projec Managers. The projec consrucion manpower planning is primarily concerned wih esimaing he worker s produciviy, scheduling manpower employmen and srucuring i ino workers eams and work groups, wih a view o economically mach manpower supply wih he ask requiremens (K. K. Chikara 2009). Esimaing correc manpower requiremens for each aciviy/work package is an imporan funcion of manpower planning eam. Shorages in any ypical caegory may resul in ime and cos overrun o consrucion projecs wih he reducion of overall produciviy. However, he righ combinaion of members o be included wihin a eam is very difficul o specify and herefore a significan challenge exiss in forming a good projec eam (G Coaes e.al.2007). Manpower forecasing is needed o faciliae he consrucion programme and o preven he damage o he company caused by aemps o underake consrucion and when and where he resources are no available (James M.W.Wong e.al. 2004). Tradiionally, esimaion of manpower required for each ype of funcion is based upon previous experience of execuing similar ypes of consrucion aciviies. Many handbooks, guideline and reference books are available which provides labour consans or produciviy o arrive a manpower for various ypes of consrucion aciviies. Indian sandard codes on recommendaion for labour oupu consans for building works (IS 7272) are published zonewise by he Bureau of Indian Sandards, New Delhi o sandardised labour oupus. Even afer hese scienific and mahemaical mehods are available o calculae manpower for he consrucion projec, sill mos of he consrucion conracors don do manpower esimaion for wan of ime. Consrucion conracors need approximae numbers only, as during consrucion period acual men deploymen varies considerably. Thus, here is need o develop an effecive mehod for manpower esimaion a projec level o give ballpark number of personals o faciliae manpower planning. Hence, his sudy is done wih following objecives so as o mee he fuure manpower requiremen for real-esae consrucion projec. To horoughly undersand he manpower planning and deploymen pracices for various building consrucion projecs. To analyze and classify manpower demand a various caegories. To relae projec cos and he manpower required and hus forecasing he required manpower for he paricular projec. The model was developed based upon daa colleced from consrucion projecs which were execued in India by using muliple regression mehod. This paper presens above said model which projec managers can use for esimaing manpower requiremens for consrucion projecs. This paper is organized in four secions. Following his inroducion a review of manpower forecasing mehods follows. Third secion of his paper discusses daa aribues and daa collecion mehods used o develop model followed by resul analysis and developed model. Finally conclusion from sudy is presened. Lieraure review Manpower forecasing is needed mainly o show expeced demand of each ype of manpower on consrucion projec sies. Since 1960 s number of researchers have shown inense ineres in his opic. The work in 20 h and 21 s cenury is noable as many counries have recognized he imporance of forecasing and applied various forecasing mehodologies o deermine he fuure raining needs (James Wong 2004). This secion of paper criically reviews hese forecasing mehodologies which have been developed and used earlier for demand forecasing a projec level. N K Kwak e al (1977) developed a sochasic model for shor erm demand forecasing of manpower requiremens for a paricular funcional skill group. Bayesian decision analysis was used o produce a composie forecas of oal skill group manpower demand. This model is adapable o any organizaions in which he demand for services from skill group is derived from several projecs or aciviies. In he Unied Saes, Georgia Deparmen of Transporaion (1993) developed a sysem for predicing consrucion engineering manpower sysem for Georgia Deparmen of Transporaion. This sysem is able o esimae number of employees and engineers required for differen consrucion projecs based upon consrucion dollars. K R Persad e al (1995) using simple regression and muliple regression echniques developed a forecasing model o forecas engineering manpower requiremens in erms of engineering man hours as well as engineering cos. They concluded from heir sudy ha projec consrucion cos and projec ype are excellen predicors of engineering manpower requiremens. Bell L C e al (2003) developed a model o forecas manpower requiremens as a funcion of projec ypes and cos for seleced employee classificaion. Using daa from 130 compleed highway consrucion projecs and over employee payroll enries, regression analysis plos were generaed o predic overall manpower requiremens for projec of given ype and cos. a. l. ag a r w a l b. l. ra j p u er. s. ma n g e s h a. model f o r m u l a i o n o esima e ma n p o w e r dema n d for he rea l.. pp

3 Unsandardized (Consan) a. Dependen Variable: Engineers Engineers = * cos of projec Table 1. for Engineers Unsandardized (Consan) a. Dependen Variable: consulans Consulans = * cos of projec Table 2. for Consulans Unsandardized (Consan) a. Dependen Variable: adminisraors Adminisraors = * cos of projec Table 3. for adminisraors Unsandardized (Consan) a. Dependen Variable: shopfloor Shop Floor = * cos of projec Table 4. for Shop Floor level Chan e al (2003) using simple regression analysis developed a model o esimae oal labour required for any given ype of projec using labour demand cos relaionship. Chan e al (2006) developed a forecasing model on he basis of labour mulipliers approach by driving he relaionship beween number of workers required and projec expendiure in he given projec duraion. The model can also be used o predic he number of jobs creaed for a given level of invesmen. The governmen can apply his model o check and compare which projec ype will generae mos jobs before commiing public money. Wong e al (2008) developed 11 manpower demand forecasing models for oal projec labour and en essenial rades by using muliple regressions. They concluded from heir sudy ha projec labour demand depends no only on a single facor, bu a cluser of variables relaed o he projec characerisics, including consrucion cos, projec complexiy aribues, physical sie condiions and projec ype. 830 o r g a n i z a i o n, ech n o l o g y a n d ma n a g e m e n i n c o n s r u c i o n an inerna i o n a l j o u r n a l 5(2)2013

4 R R Square Adjused R Square Sd. Error of he Esimae 1.986a a. Predicors: (Consan), shopfloor, engineers, consulans, adminisraive Table 5. Summary Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Regression Residual Toal a. Predicors: (Consan), shopfloor, engineers, consulans, adminisraive b. Dependen Variable: Table 6. ANOVA Un sandardized T (Consan) engineers consulans adminisraive shopfloor a. Dependen Variable: Table 7. for all independen variables Daa collecion and analysis residenial/commercial building consrucions during are considered for developing his esimaion model. Manpower requiremen varies from building projec o infrasrucure projec consrucion and hence daa collecion was done only from residenial or commercial building projecs. Quesionnaire survey is used for collecion of daa and daa regarding manpower uilized and oal projec coss were colleced from seleced consrucion projec sies. Toal manpower used in all projecs was caegorized in o four caegories as Engineers, Consulans, Adminisraors and Shop Floor level. Colleced daa abou projec cos and manpower used was used o develop regression models for all four caegories of manpower by using saisical sofware SPSS (Saisical Package for he Social Sciences). The oupus generaed by regression analysis for all four caegories of manpower are presened respecively in Table 1, Table 2, Table 3 and Table 4. In hese ables, he values in column B are he coefficiens of he regression equaion and accordingly he regression models for various caegories of manpower are formulaed. Table 5 shows he summary in which Correlaion coefficien R =.986, indicaes ha enire model is highly correlaed wih cos of projec. Toal variaion defined by all he variables is 97.3% i.e. he projec is feasible from daa poin of view wih only 2.7% loss of daa. As per Saisics, if he value of R = 1 hen he respecive model is highly correlaed and R = -1 hen he model is highly correlaed in reverse fashion i.e. no posiive relaion can be obain. In his case, R = which is nearly equals o 1, hence he correlaion can be found ou wih very less amoun of loss in daa. The ANOVA able ess he accepabiliy of he model from a saisical perspecive (Table 6). The Regression row displays informaion a. l. ag a r w a l b. l. ra j p u er. s. ma n g e s h a. model f o r m u l a i o n o esima e ma n p o w e r dema n d for he rea l.. pp

5 Manpower caegories Acual daa colleced from sie Analyzed daa based on regression equaions obained Difference Engineers Consulans Adminisraors Shop floor Table 8. Comparaive analysis beween acual projec vs models abou he variaion accouned for by he model. The Residual row displays informaion abou he variaion ha is no accouned for by he model. The regression and residual sums of squares are no equal, i.e. regression sum of squares is greaer han residual sum of squares which indicaes ha abou enire of he variaion is explained by he model. The significance value of he F saisic is less han 0.05 (value = 0.011), which means ha he variaion explained by he model is no due o chance and hence accepable. Table 7 gives he regression equaion coefficiens in consideraion wih all he independen variables (Engineers, Consulans, Adminisraors and Shop floor labor) and dependen variable (Cos of projec). General Regression Equaion: Y = X X X X4 The bea coefficien ells ha how srongly he independen variable is associaed wih he dependen variable. Above able indicaes ha independen variable Shop Floor is highly associaed (Bea Coefficien.493) wih dependen variable Cos of Projec. P-Significance value.011 means significance i.e. i is he significance of model. Negaive sign for he coefficien of Engineers indicaes uncerainy in he daa available. Validiy of he models Validiy of models was esed by comparing prediced values wih acual values for consrucion projec sie which is locaed in Mumbai. Forecasing performance of all four models is as shown in Table 8. The resuls of he validaion confirm ha he forecasing models are predicing manpower demand wih very less amoun of deviaion. Limiaions of he models Alhough models predic manpower demand for consrucion projecs, i is acknowledged ha he models are subjec o following limiaions: The sudy was limied o only residenial or commercial building consrucion projecs. As projec cos vary from srucure o srucure, above regression models are useful o calculae manpower demand only for similar kind of projecs which involve similar kind of aciviies. Developed regression models give only approximae manpower demand for only four caegories such as Engineers, Consulans, Adminisraors and Shop Floor level. The resuls were derived from a sample of seleced projecs only, which may no be sufficien o develop regression models for all projecs. Labour demand and projec cos of consrucion projecs depend upon consrucion mehods and echnology, consrucion maerials used. I is advisable o updae models aking ino consideraion he change in consrucion mehods, echnology and consrucion maerials o ge more accuracy. Conclusion Review of lieraure concluded ha projec cos is one of he major facors which affec projec manpower demand. Hence projec cos and manpower daa from seleced residenial/ commercial building projecs were colleced o develop regression models using muliple regression analysis. By using his daa manpower forecasing models were creaed for four caegories such as Engineers, Consulans, Adminisraors and Shop Floor level. The models were hen verified by comparing prediced values wih acual values for one building consrucion projec. Resuls of validiy es indicae ha he developed models predic manpower demand for consrucion projec wih minimum deviaion. Conracing agencies can use hese models o esimae manpower requiremen for effecive personals deploymens for execuion of a new consrucion projec. This faciliaes beer manpower planning and budgeing for projecs and will help o curb delays in compleion of consrucion work. 832 o r g a n i z a i o n, ech n o l o g y a n d ma n a g e m e n i n c o n s r u c i o n an inerna i o n a l j o u r n a l 5(2)2013

6 References Alber P C Chan, Y H Chiang, Sephen W K Mak, Lennon H T Choy and James M WM Wong (2006) Forecasing he demand for consrucion skills in Hong Kong, Consrucion Innovaion, PP Bell L C and Brandenburg S G (2003) Forecasing consrucion saffing for ransporaion agencies, Journal of Managemen in Engineering, Vol 19, No.3, PP Chan, A. P. C., Wong, J. M. W., and Chiang, Y. H. (2003). ing labor demand a projec level An empirical sudy in Hong Kong, Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology, Vol 1, No 2, PP G Coaes, A H B Duffy, W Hills, and R I Whifield (2007) A preliminary approach for modeling and planning he composiion of engineering projec eams, Proceedings IMechE Vol 221 Par B: Journal of Engineering Manufacure, PP Georgia Deparmen of Transporaion, Technical repor on (1993) Developmen of a Consrucion engineering manpower sysem for Georgia DOT. Indian Sandard IS: 7272 (Par-I) 1974, Recommendaion for labour oupu consans for building work, Indian Sandards Insiuion, New Delhi. James M. W. Wong, Alber P. C. Chan, and Y. H. Chiang (2004) A criical review of forecasing models o predic manpower demand, The Ausralian Journal of Consrucion Economics and Building, Vol 4, No. 2, PP James M. W. Wong; Alber P. C. Chan; and Y. H. Chiang (2008) ing and Forecasing Consrucion Labor Demand: Mulivariae Analysis, Journal of Consrucion Engineering and Managemen Vol 134, No 9, PP Khali R Persad, J T O Connor, and Koshy Varghese (1995) Forecasing engineering manpower requiremens for highway preconsrucion aciviies, Journal of Managemen in Engineering, Vol 11, No.3, PP N K Kwak, Waler a Garre, and Sam Barone (1977) A sochasic model for demand forecasing for echnical manpower planning, Managemen Science, Vol 23, No 10 PP n. šum a n m. semič el-mas r i he inegr a e d approach for inroduc i n g innova i o n in c o n s r u c i o n pp