Action Note Equity Research July 22, 2016

Transcription

1 Action Note Equity Research July 22, 2016 Metals & Minerals First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T) C$9.96 Q2 Preview - H2/16 outlook hinges on Sentinel power supply Greg Barnes Derick Ma, (Associate) Event First Quantum will report Q2/16 results after the market close on Wednesday, July 27. Management will host a conference call on Thursday, July 28 at 9:00 am ET. The dial in numbers are: or Impact: NEUTRAL We are projecting EPS of $0.03 for the quarter; consensus is at $0.05. Our forecast EBITDA for the period is $189 million (consensus $215 million). TD is forecasting Q2/16 copper production at 130,200t (Q1/16 119,300t) at cash costs of $1.20/lb. Our production forecast for Q2/16 includes 35,400t from the Sentinel Mine. Second power line into Sentinel not energized at quarter-end - As far as we are aware, the second power line into the Sentinel mine was not energized during Q2/16. That being said management has noted that it expects the mine to run at or near design capacity with the current power allocation of 120MW. But we believe that as the mine transitions into harder primary ore during H2/16, the full power allocation of 160MW will be needed to run the mine at design capacity (~150,000 tpd). Large copper hedge position outstanding at end of Q1/16 - At the end of Q1/16, FM had a copper hedge position of 171,250t at an average price of $2.24/ lb, which compares to the average LME copper price for Q2 of $2.15/lb. Zambian tax regime switches to variable royalty in H2/16 - The flat 20% royalty has been eliminated and replaced with a variable royalty of 4%-6% depending on the copper price (4%<$2.04/lb; 5% $2.04/lb-$2.72/lb; 6%>$2.72/lb). The 15% variable tax was repealed and the 30% income tax re-instated. Cobre Panama project debt facility - The process to establish a $2.5 billion project debt facility for the Cobre Panama project is continuing into Phase 2 with due diligence and term sheet negotiations underway. Management hopes to complete the process within 12 months. TD Investment Conclusion We are maintaining our BUY recommendation and our C$13.50 target price. We like the company's 50% copper production growth profile over the next four years, low operating costs, and improving balance sheet. FM-T: Price Company Profile First Quantum is a Canada-based mining company that produces copper cathode, copper in concentrate, gold, nickel, and zinc. Recommendation: Risk: 12-Month Target Price: 12-Month Dividend (Est.): BUY HIGH C$13.50 C$ Month Total Return: 35.9% Market Data (C$) Current Price C$ Week Range $ $14.52 Mkt Cap (f.d.) ($mm) $6,865.4 Float Cap ($mm) $6,429.2 EV ($mm) $12,049.1 Current Dividend $0.04 Dividend Yield 0.4% Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 12,031,870 Financial Data (C$) Fiscal Y-E December Shares O/S (f.d)(mm) Float Shares (mm) Net Debt ($mm) $3,991.2 Net Debt/Total Cap 29.9% NAVPS $12.37 Working Cap ($mm) $1,604.4 Estimates (US$) EBITDA ($mm) ,179.0 EBITDA ($mm) (old) EPS (f.d.) CFPS (f.d) EPS (f.d.) Quarterly Estimates (US$) Q1 (0.02) 0.09 Q Q Q Valuations EV/EBITDA 12.0x 10.7x 7.8x P/E (f.d.) 18.6x 42.3x 20.6x P/CFPS (f.d) 4.8x 6.9x 5.6x Supplemental Data Cu (US$/lb) Ni (US$/lb) Cu (tonnes) 378, , ,500 Nickel (t) 26,700 23,500 28,200 All figures in US$, unless otherwise specified Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Please see the final pages of this document for important disclosure information. Page 1 of 6

2 July 22, 2016 Details We have removed the Kevitsa mine from our financial estimates reflecting the completed sale in June Exhibit 1. Q2/16 Preview Quarter/Quarter Year/Year Q2/16E Q1/16 % ch. Q2/16E Q2/15 % ch. Production Kansanshi 58,400 58,100 1% 58,400 57,000 2% Guelb 10,300 11,100-7% 10,300 11,100-7% Cayeli 5,800 6,900-16% 5,800 5,700 2% Las Cruces 17,500 18,000-3% 17,500 17,400 1% Pyhasalmi 2,800 4,300-35% 2,800 2,900-3% Sentinel 35,400 20,900 n/a 35,400 - n/a Copper production (tonnes) 130, ,300 9% 130,200 94,100 38% Copper sales (tonnes) 130, ,400-3% 130,000 79,700 63% Ravensthorpe 5,500 7,100-23% 5,500 7,100-23% Total nickel production (tonnes) 5,500 7,100-23% 5,500 7,100-23% Total gold production (ozs) 53,600 54,800-2% 53,600 56,700-5% Total zinc production (tonnes) 7,700 6,200 24% 7,700 8,200-6% Cash costs Kansanshi % % Guelb % % Cayeli % % Las Cruces % % Pyhasalmi % nm Sentinel n/a n/a Consolidated cash costs (US$/lb Cu) % % Ravensthorpe % % Consolidated cash costs (US$/lb Ni) % % Financial highlights EPS (US$) % nm CFPS (US$) % % EBITDA (US$) % % Source: Company, TD Securities Inc. Page 2 of 6

3 July 22, 2016 Outlook Exhibit Quarterly Financial Outlook Production Source: Company, TD Securities Inc. Valuation TD Estimates Q1/16A Q2/16E Q3/16E Q4/16E 2016E FM 2016 Guidance Kansanshi 58,100 58,400 58,400 58, , ,000 Guelb 11,100 10,300 10,300 10,300 42,000 40,000 Cayeli 6,900 5,800 5,800 5,800 24,100 22,000 Las Cruces 18,000 17,500 17,500 17,500 70,500 70,000 Pyhasalmi 4,300 2,800 2,800 2,800 12,800 12,000 Sentinel 20,900 35,400 40,500 40, , , ,000 Copper production (tonnes) 119, , , , , , ,000 Copper sales (tonnes) 133, , , , ,500 Ravensthorpe 7,100 5,500 5,500 5,500 23,500 23,000 Total nickel production (tonnes) 7,100 5,500 5,500 5,500 23,500 33,000-37,000 Total gold production (ozs) 54,800 53,600 49,200 49, , ,000 Total zinc production (tonnes) 6,200 7,700 7,700 7,700 29,200 26,000 Cash costs Kansanshi Guelb Cayeli Las Cruces Pyhasalmi Sentinel Consolidated cash costs (US$/lb Cu) Ravensthorpe Consolidated cash costs (US$/lb Ni) * *Nickel cash cost guidance was provided prior to the sale of Kevitsa First Quantum is currently trading at an EV/2017 EBITDA multiple of 7.9x and a P/NAV of 0.81x, compared with its large-cap peer-group average of 7.4x and 1.01x, respectively. Justification of Target Price Our target price is based on a 9.5x EV/2017 EBITDA multiple (60% weighting) and 1.0x multiple to our NAV-10% (40% weighting). Key Risks to Target Price The main risks facing the company include forecast, financial, technical, and political risks. Among other things, these include risks related to copper and nickel prices; input costs; fuel prices; the governing fiscal and legislative regimes; the timing of key developments; market conditions; capital and operating costs; foreign exchange rates; resources and reserves; operating parameters; permitting; environment; and staffing and key personnel retention. The company is developing Cobre Panama, which may be subject to delays, cost overruns, technical risks, and other risks that are inherent to new projects. The company has high financial leverage relative to our short-term cash flow expectations. Page 3 of 6

4 Rmm $mm July 22, 2016 Exhibit 3. Company Snapshot First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T) Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/ E 2017E Risk Profile: HIGH Realized Metal Prices Stock Rating: BUY Copper (US$/lb) Target Price: C$13.50 Realized copper price (US$/lb) Return: 36% Cash cost (US$/lb Cu) Realized nickel price (US$/lb) Cash cost (US$/lb Ni) Target Price Calculator Copper Production NAV Weighting 40% Kansanshi 58,100 58,400 58,400 58, , ,200 NAV-10% C$/sh Guelb 11,100 10,300 10,300 10,300 42,000 39, x Sentinel 20,900 35,400 40,500 40, , ,700 Per share - C$ Cayeli 6,900 5,800 5,800 5,800 24,100 23,100 EV/2017E EBITDA Weighting 60% Las Cruces 18,000 17,500 17,500 17,500 70,500 70, x US$mm 11,202 Pyhasalmi 4,300 2,800 2,800 2,800 12,800 11,300 Cash YE 2017 US$mm 269 Cobre Panama LT Debt YE 2017 US$mm (4,027) Total copper production (tonnes) 119, , , , , ,500 Total US$mm 7,444 Copper sales (tonnes) 133, , , , , ,800 Per share - C$ Total nickel production (tonnes) 7,100 5,500 5,500 5,500 23,500 28,200 Target Price (60% EV/2017E EBITDA, 40% NAV) Total gold production (ozs) 54,800 53,600 49,200 49, , ,500 Liquidity Monitors - TD Forecast and lower metal prices TD Base Case Metal Prices 2, , , , , , , (1,000.0) (2,000.0) (3,000.0) Lower Metal Prices A Q1/16A Q2/16E Q3/16E Q4/16E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E (4,000.0) 2015A Q1/16A Q2/16E Q3/16E Q4/16E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Period End Cash Available LOC Total Available Liquidity Period End Cash Available LOC Total Available Liquidity Key Balance Sheet Metrics Basis TD forecast metal prices Key Balance Sheet Metrics Basis lower metal prices 2015A 2016E 2017E 2015A 2016E 2017E YE Cash (US$ millions) YE Cash (US$ millions) (302) YE LT Debt (US$ millions) 4,675 4,044 4,027 YE LT Debt (US$ millions) 4,675 4,044 4,027 Available LOC (US$ millions) 1,800 1, Available LOC (US$ millions) 1,800 1, Total Liquidity (US$ millions) 2,165 1, Total Liquidity (US$ millions) 2,165 1, ND/EBITDA 6.10x 4.89x 3.51x ND/EBITDA 6.10x 6.40x 7.80x ND/Total Capitalization 31.06% 28.96% 27.84% ND/Total Capitalization 31.06% 30.03% 32.06% CFPS (US$/sh) CFPS (US$/sh) FCF (C$ millions) (540) (14) 171 FCF (C$ millions) (540) (156) (264) Capex (C$ millions)* (1,565) (781) (766) Capex (C$ millions)* (1,565) (787) (766) Key Covenants: ND/EBITDA - to Q3/17 <5.5x; Q4/17 to Q1/18 <5.0x; Assumed lower commodity prices Q2/18 to Q3/18 <4.5x;Q4/18 <3.5x; 2019 fwd <3.25x Copper $2.00/lb, Zinc $0.75/lb, Nickel $3.50/lb, Gold $1100/oz, USD/CAD 0.70 Forecast Total Liquidity Negative Not applicable Forecast Total Liquidity Negative 2018 * growth + sustaining + capitalized stripping Note: Model does not include any proceeds from asset sales NAV-10% US$M C$/share Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/ E 2017E Operations Key Financial Information Kansanshi (80%) 1, EPS (US$) Guelb Moghrein (100%) CFPS (US$) Sentinel (95%) 2, EBITDA (US$M) ,179.1 Ravensthorpe (100%) Income Statement Items (US$M) Haquira (100%) Sales Revenues , ,637.7 Enterprise (95%, 11% DCF) Cost of Sales , ,313.6 Cayeli (100%) Depreciation Las Cruces (100%) Gross profit Pyhasalmi (100%) Net Earnings (217.0) (152.5) Cobre Panama (80%,10% DCF) 4, Adjusted net earnings Total operations 10, S/O f.d. (MM) Cash Flow Statement Items (US$M) Working Capital (ex current debt) 1, Operating CF bf. ch. in WC Investments + Mopani CF from operating activities Corporate SG&A (10% DCF) (712.7) (1.34) CF from financing activities 29.0 (579.9) (516.7) Long-term debt (including current debt) (4,451.6) (8.39) CAPEX (259.0) (172.4) (172.4) (177.5) (781.2) (765.7) Reclamation provisions (1,114.0) (2.10) Balance Sheet Items (US$M) Total balance sheet adjustments (3,617.5) (6.82) Cash Total Net Asset Value 6, Long-term debt 4, , , , , ,026.6 Source: Company, TD Securities Inc. Page 4 of 6

5 Action Note Equity Research July 22, 2016 July 22, 2016 TD Securities Equity Research Disclosures Distribution of Research Ratings^ Investment Services Provided* 75% REDUCE - 4.2% 62.98% BUY % 50% 34.25% 25% HOLD % 0% 2.76% BUY HOLD REDUCE Definition of Research Ratings ACTION LIST BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a minimum of 15%, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months and it is a top pick in the Analyst's sector. BUY: The stock s total return is expected to exceed a minimum of 15%, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months. SPECULATIVE BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed 30% over the next 12 months; however, there is material event risk associated with the investment that could result in significant loss. HOLD: The stock s total return is expected to be between 0% and 15%, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months. TENDER: Investors are advised to tender their shares to a specific offer for the company's securities or to support a proposed combination reflecting our view that a superior offer is not forthcoming. REDUCE: The stock s total return is expected to be negative over the next 12 months. Overall Risk Rating in order of increasing risk: Low (7.5% of coverage universe), Medium (35.2%), High (43.6%), Speculative (13.7%) Research Dissemination Policy TD Securities makes its research products available in electronic and/or printed formats and as soon as practicable distributes them to its institutional clients who are entitled to receive them. The Action Notes are distributed by , and are available in PDFform on Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, S&P Capital IQ and FactSet. Research Reports are distributed by ; they are also printed and distributed by courier to our entitled clients. PDFs of Reports are available on Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, S&P Capital IQ and FactSet. 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