2016 Transportation Buying Trends Survey

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1 2016 Transportation Buying Trends Survey Hilda Maraachlian, Ph.D. Analyst, Institutional Equity Research Transportation, Industrials & Special Situations Cormark Securities Inc. And Lou Smyrlis Publisher & Editorial Director Truck News, Truck West, MotortruckFleet Maintenance, Newcom Business Media January 27,

2 Cormark wishes to thank Canadian Shipper magazine and the Canadian Institute of Traffic and Transportation (CITT) for their contribution in designing, distributing and conducting the nationwide 2016 Transportation Buying Trends Survey. We would also like to thank Canadian Shipper subscribers, CITT members and other industry players for participating in the Survey and providing great insights into the current and future state of the freight markets in the transportation and logistics industry in Canada. {2} 2

3 Agenda Survey Background Shipper Volume & Pricing Projections Current Capacity Picture Survey Conclusions Cormark Road & Rail Thesis Key Indicators To Watch Q & A {3} 3

4 Survey Conducted over the fall/winter period of 2015 Completed by 86 shipper-representatives across Canada Shipper Profile Background 98% of the respondents were purchasing managers 6.5% of the respondents represented Eastern Canada, 7 Central Canada and 23.5% Western Canada A majority of the respondents belonged to the Canadian manufacturing sector at 3, followed by a fairly broad representation from other sectors The shippers represented a wide spectrum of industries and customers served by carriers End Markets Sectors 3 5% 5% Printing Forestry Agriculture 9% 1 Pulp/Paper Services 3% Utilities 8% 7% 8% Industrial Construction Healthcare Textiles 4% 4% 5% Metals Chemical High Tech 8% Automotive 12% Food Transportation 16% 17% Consumer Other Resources 6% Manufacturin g 3 Third-party logistics 21% Freight forwarder 12% Distribution 22% Retail 4% Wholesale 5% {4} 4

5 Background Shipper Profile, cont d Shippers annual sales ranged from under $5 MM to over $2 BB (weighted average a little above $300 MM) Shippers annual transportation costs ranged from under $100k to over $20 MM (weighted average ~$8.3 MM) On average more than one third of shippers transportation costs relate to the domestic freight market Over half of shippers transportation costs relate to the for-hire trucking industry Shipper Annual Sales Don't know 17% $2 BB or more 8% $500 MM to $2 BB 9% $100 MM to $500 MM 9% $60 MM to $100 MM 9% $30 MM to $60 MM 8% $15 MM to $30 MM 25% $5 MM to $15 MM 9% Under $5 MM 6% 5% 1 15% 2 25% 3 Shipper Transportation Spend By Market Shipper Annual Transportation Spend $20 MM or more 26% $10 MM to $20 MM 8% $5MM to $10 MM 13% $1 MM to $5 MM 28% $500K to $1 MM 6% $100K to $500K 17% Under $100K 2% 5% 1 15% 2 25% 3 Shipper Transportation Spend By Mode Intermodal 18% Air cargo 12% International, 29% Domestic, 38% Marine Courier Private Fleet Truck 13% 18% 3 For-Hire Less than Truckload 25% Transborder, 33% For-Hire Truckload Rail 15% 29% 5% 1 15% 2 25% 3 35% {5} 5

6 Volume Shipper Projections Positive Volume Outlook Forecast By Shippers The shippers are projecting about 3.8% volume growth for 2016 versus 4.8% last year Shippers, in general, are less optimistic compared to last year The less than optimistic outlook is corroborated by Cormark s ongoing conversations with public and private carriers and shippers, as well as other supportive indices and data that it currently tracks in its ongoing coverage of the Canadian transportation industry Last Year s Survey This Year s Survey Up 2 + 2% Up 2+ 3% Up % 58% Up % 44% Up % Up About the same 37% About the same 46% Down 5-1 2% Down 5-1 8% Down % 6% Down Down 2 + 2% Down 2+ 2% For For {6} 6

7 Core Pricing Shipper Projections Shippers projecting about 1.5% pricing (freight rate) growth for 2016, versus 1. last year Why does core pricing continue to rise? Tougher regulatory environment and driver shortages, but partially offset by overcapacity in trucking More shippers believe that the direction in pricing will be about the same or higher Last Year s Survey This Year s Survey Up 5%+ 2% Up 5%+ 7% Up 2-5% 21% 45% Up 2-5% 23% 51% Up 0-2% 22% Up 0-2% 21% About the same 34% About the same 26% Down 0-2% 3% Down 0-2% 2% Down 2-5% Down 2-5% 2% Down 5%+ 3% Down 5%+ 4% Don't know 18% Don't know 18% For For {7} 7

8 Volume Shipper Projections {8} 8

9 Core Pricing Challenges {9} 9

10 Shippers Capacity Current Situation 49% noted entire freight industry is operating at suitable levels of capacity versus 59% last year A higher proportion of shippers noted overcapacity for rails and TL and LTL versus last year The slowdown in the manufacturing sector coupled with a build-up of inventory is contributing to overcapacity in the market Last Year s Survey This Year s Survey Under Capacity 21% Under Capacity 18% Near Balanced 59% Near Balanced 49% Overcapacity 19% Overcapacity 33% In In {10} 10

11 Capacity Trucking Sector {11} 11

12 Capacity Trucking Sector {12} 12

13 Survey Conclusions Shippers expect growth in 2016, but are less optimistic compared to last year Volumes are expected to grow in 2016 Shippers project 3.8%, on average Pricing expected to grow in 2016 Shippers project 1.5%, on average Shipper Pricing Growth Forecast % 2% 2% 1% 1% % 1.5% % 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2.5% 7. Shipper Forecast For Shipper Forecast For 2012 Shipper Volume Growth Forecast And Actual, % 3. Shipper Forecast For Shipper Shipper Shipper Shipper Shipper Shipper 2010 Actual In2011 Forecast For2012 Actual In Forecast 2013 For Actual 2014 In Forecast 2015 For Shipper Forecast For % Shipper Actual In % Shipper Forecast For 2014 Shipper Forecast For % Shipper Actual In 2014 Shipper Forecast For % Shipper Forecast For % Shipper Actual In % Shipper Forecast For {13} 13

14 Cormark Road & Rail Thesis {14} 14

15 Summary Comments The North American freight markets slowed in 2015, and the data we monitor suggests a similar slow environment. While Truck pricing has improved due to the cost of retaining drivers and greater regulatory scrutiny, it has been subdued to enhanced competition from rails and a low growth environment Core pricing and prudent capacity/cost management have been aiding margins The Canadian manufacturing sector has fallen sharply since June 2015, as measured by the Manufacturing PMI index, reaching an all time low in December The decline is due to weak output, new orders and employment. The Canadian unemployment rate increased to 7.1% in November from 6.6% at the start of the year. The US ISM New Orders Index is at the lowest levels since August 2012, and progressively got worse throughout The ISM New Order is a good indicator of future freight activity. Unlike Canada, US unemployment has decreased to 5. from 5.7% at the start of Risks: Economy 7 of the US economy driven by the consumer. Freight volumes strongly correlated to GDP (88% for the rails). Leverage small top-line fluctuations amplified down the P&L. Regulatory environment service, safety, rates, e-logs. {15} 15

16 Key Indicators {16} 16

17 Economy Growing Modestly US GDP is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2016 vs. Canada at 2. US unemployment rate remains at 5., while Canada is higher at 7.1% Housing starts are expected to increase to 1.2 MM in 2016 and 1.4 MM in 2017 in the US Auto sales (SAAR) is expected to reach 17.8 MM in the US in 2016 and 18.2 MM in 2017 The US dollar has gained strength vis-à-vis the Canadian dollar, which could stimulate the manufacturing sector and exports Real GDP Growth (%) Average WTI Price vs. Average FX Q1/00 Q1/01 Q1/02 Q1/03 Q1/04 Q1/05 US Q1/06 Q1/07 Q1/08 Q1/09 Q1/10 Q1/11 Q1/12 Canada Q1/13 Q1/14 Q1/ Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Average WTI Price (LHS) Average USD/CAD (RHS) {17} 17

18 Manufacturing Output Data Suggests A Slowdown US industrial production and capacity utilization had been gradually rising since June 2009, but was largely flat in The lack of growth was due to the global economic slowdown and a surging US dollar Capacity utilization remains below its long term average of ~80.5%, and at levels last seen in The ISM manufacturing gauge has been largely flat, pointing to limited growth in the manufacturing sector. Latest ISM data fell to levels not seen since June 2009 US Industrial Production Index (IPI) and Capacity Utilization, Monthly Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 US Industrial Production Index (LHS) US Capacity Utilization (RHS) {18} 18

19 Inventory to Sales Ratio Flattish ATA Truck Tonnage is highly correlated to the inverse of inventory to sales ratio Growth in sales and inventories, albeit lean, continues to drive moderate growth in freight volumes ATA Truck Tonnage Vs. US I/S Ratio (Inversed), Y/Y Growth, Monthly % 5% -1-5% -5% 5% % -15% 2 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 ATA Truck Index 3-Mo MA Y/Y (LHS) Inv. To Sales Ratio Y/Y (RHS) {19} 19

20 The ISM New Orders index tends to lead the Cass Freight Index by about 6 9 months The ISM New Orders Index is hitting lowest level since August 2012 Freight volumes should typically lag the trend in new orders, providing a powerful tool to forecast the direction in freight volumes. With New Orders continuing to trend downward, we expect decelerating freight growth to occur over the next 6 9 months, as measured by The Cass Freight Index. Cass Freight Index Vs. ISM New Orders, Y/Y Growth, Monthly ISM New Orders In The Red Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 CASS Freight Index Y/Y (LHS) ISM New Orders Index Y/Y (RHS) {20} 20

21 Port Volumes Canada Outperforming US West Coast Ports containerized traffic is down 3.3% in 2015 (as of Nov), driven by a 10.4% decline in exports. Exports have faltered due to a slowdown in the US major trading partners, particularly China Canadian West Coast Port containerized traffic is up 5.1% in 2015 (as of Nov) Loaded TEUs At Canadian West Coast Ports, Monthly Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Loaded TEUs (LHS) Y/Y Growth (RHS) Loaded TEUs At US West Coast Ports, Monthly 1,400 1,200 1, % 1 5% -5% -1-15% -2-25% Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Loaded TEUs (LHS) Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Y/Y Growth (RHS) Jan-15 {21} 21

22 Canadian General Freight Index The Canadian General Freight Index indicates that freight pricing increased steadily since July 2014, but has slowed in recent months Domestic LTL pricing is in negative territory for the year, and we expect this trend to continue Domestic TL and cross-border TL and LTL freight rates have appreciated in 2015 (as of October) Canadian General Freight Index, 4-Month Moving Average Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 {22} 22

23 TransCore Logistics Index Deteriorating Volume Growth TransCore s Canadian Freight Index reveals that volumes declined in all markets in 2015 Y/Y (cross-border and domestic). The declines were driven by weakness in Western Canada, muted retail sales, and tougher Y/Y comparables. TransCore Logistics Index Y/Y Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Outbound Inbound Intra-Canada {23} 23

24 Expect An Uptick In Cross-Border Activity Cross-border activity between Ontario and the US was flat in 2015 A weakening Canadian dollar increases the appeal of Canadian goods for US consumers, and as such, we expect an eventual uptick in export volumes. Trucks Crossing The Ontario-US Border Trucks Entering the US From Canada NY/MI Border 450, , , , , , , , , , , ,000 50, , , ,000-3 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Trucks (LHS) LTM Avg. (LHS) Y/Y (RHS) Total Trucks (LHS) LTM Avg. (LHS) Y/Y (RHS) {24} 24

25 Cormark Freight Monitor Slowing Our Freight Monitor has began to decelerate in 2015, suggesting a weakening demand environment Cormark Freight Monitor, Y/Y Change 2 15% 1 5% Y/Y Chg. Aug. '06 Freight recession start Dec. 07: U.S. recession start -5% -1 Nov. '11-15% -2-25% Truck tonnage and our tracking of various indices seem to point toward a slowdown in volumes Given waning demand and slowing economy, particularly in Western Canada, we expect more of the same freight demand, as experienced in 2015 {25} 25

26 Questions? {26} 26

27 I, Hilda Maraachlian, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company(ies) and its (their) securities. I also certify that I have not been, and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing the specific recommendation(s) in this report. For Canadian Residents: This report has been approved by Cormark Securities Inc. ( CSI ), member IIROC and CIPF, which takes responsibility for this report and its dissemination in Canada. Canadian clients wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed should do so through a qualified salesperson of CSI. For US Residents: Cormark Securities (USA) Limited ( CUSA ), member FINRA and SIPC, accepts responsibility for this report and its dissemination in the United States. This report is intended for distribution in the United States only to certain institutional investors. US clients wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed should do so through a qualified salesperson of CUSA. Every province in Canada, state in the U.S., and most countries throughout the world have their own laws regulating the types of securities and other investment products which may be offered to their residents, as well as the process for doing so. As a result, some of the securities discussed in this report may not be available to every interested investor. Accordingly, this report is provided for informational purposes only, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such would be prohibited. The information and any statistical data contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable as of the date of publication, but the accuracy or completeness of the information is not guaranteed, nor in providing it does CSI or CUSA assume any responsibility or liability. All opinions expressed and data provided herein are subject to change without notice. The inventories of CSI or CUSA, its affiliated companies and the holdings of their respective directors, officers and companies with which they are associated may have a long or short position or deal as principal in the securities discussed herein. A CSI or CUSA company may have acted as underwriter or initial purchaser or placement agent for a private placement of any of the securities of any company mentioned in this report, may from time to time solicit from or perform financial advisory, or other services for such company. The securities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all types of investors; their prices, value and/or the income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates. No part of any report may be reproduced in any manner without prior written permission of CSI or CUSA A full list of our disclosure statements as well as our research dissemination policies and procedures can be found on our web-site at: {27} 27

28 Toronto Royal Bank Plaza, South Tower 200 Bay Street, Suite 2800, P.O. Box 63 Toronto, ON M5J 2J2 p f toll free Calgary Stock Exchange Tower 300-5th Avenue S.W., Suite 1800 Calgary, AB T2P 3C4 p f toll free {28} 28

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