Comparison of support schemes for the production of electricity from renewable energy AEEC Autumn Conference

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1 Comparison of support schemes for the production of electricity from renewable energy AEEC Autumn Conference Paris, 24 November 2014 Etienne Jan 1

2 The support schemes of renewable energy (RE) have consequences on the cost of renewables for the community, on the consumers that support the incentives, on the market distortions, and the efficiency of the RE generation for the electric system CONSEQUENCES OF THE SUPPORT SCHEME Today s focus Cost of renewable electricity for the community The support scheme has significant effects on the risks borne by the developer. This has a consequence on the WACC and therefore on the LCOE The FiT is the support scheme with the smallest LCOE, but it requires a strict control and a high responsiveness to the changes of the RE costs to avoid an excessive compensation Cost shifts (controlled or not) between the users of the electric system Each support scheme shifts the cost from the RE plant investors to other market players (most of the enduser in France) The self consumption is also a mechanism that induces cost shifts between customers, but it is not explicit and less controlled Market distortions The development of RE has an impact on the missing money of the peak plants. This distortion should be addressed by the capacity mechanism by 2015/2016 Negative prices appear because parts of the generation is not sensible at all to the market prices The support to the RE disturbs the investment in the power plants by favoring certain technologies The current support in France increases the market power of EDF that manages most of RE generation Efficiency of the RE generation to optimize the electric system Under the FiT, there are no incentive to optimize the generation during a load peak or a period with high prices The maintenances and the stop of the generation at the right moments could optimize the wide system Source: Analyses E-CUBE Strategy Consultants 2

3 1 Cost of the renewable electricity for the community The modification of the support schemes may transfer some risks to the developer of the RE project, therefore increasing the WACC and finally the LCOE Support Scheme Additional risks for the developer compared to the FiT Examples RECs procured by tender offer Market + Ex-post Premium Self consumption : Net Metering FiT Main risks: operational, tax and regulatory risks Default risk of the buyer of the Long Term Contract Depending on the reference value of the market. In Germany: the commercial risk the balancing risk Retail price risk : evolution of the structure and the level of the retail price Regulatory risk : tax or restriction on self consumption Eg. California Increase of the WACC Current WACC Self consumption : Premium for the injected energy Retail price risk : evolution of the structure and the level of the retail price Regulatory risk : tax or restriction on self consumption Operational risk : on the rate of effective self consumption Market + Ex-ante Premium Market + Renewable Energy Certificates Market Commercial risk Balancing risk Market risk Source: Analyses E-CUBE Strategy Consultants, EPIA Commercial risk Balancing risk Market risk Premium risk : what is the value of the REC? Until 2007 Eg. New Jersey (E-CUBE) to +450 pts (EPIA) 3

4 1 Cost of the renewable electricity for the community The methodology to determine the level of the support, its control and its evolution are as important as the support scheme, especially for the PV where the costs decrease quickly DETERMINATION OF THE LEVEL OF SUPPORT FOR PV EU 2014 Guidelines France International countries Analysis For the small plants Limit 1 MW 100 kw (PV) Various For the biggest plants Open ended mechanism possible : no auction required Support updated at least once a year and no more than the depreciation Tender offer starting % by then Neutral auction concerning the technology except specific cases Open ended mechanism : FiT Level change every 3 months according to the connection queue Tender offer for PV > 100 kw Not neutral concerning the technology Open ended mechanisms Specific tariffs depending on the type of technology (GE, CA, IT) Level of support change every 2 months depending on the installations Self consumption schemes (no control) California : tender offer organized by the utilities. Analyses the cost benefits of each project (incl. Networks and environmental benefits) Germany : EEG 2014 : experiment of the auctions for freestanding PV plants Goal : avoid high transaction costs The level must be strictly and frequently adapted depending on the capacity installed recently to avoid an excessive compensation (FR 2010, JA 2014) The auction should insure a strong competition and a right level of valuation The criteria of the auction and the respect of its deadlines are important details for the industry Source: Analyses E-CUBE Strategy Consultants 4

5 2 Cost shifts between the consumers of the electric system Self consumption existed for the PV in California more than 10 years ago, and appeared recently in Germany and in Italy in different forms GERMANY CALIFORNIA Installed PV Capacity: 36 GW (2013) Historical support : FiT Current Scheme (<10 MWp): FiT for PV < 500 kwp Ex-post Market Premium for PV < 10 MWp: Self Consumption for PV allowed, but taxed above 10 kwp (or 10 MWh) at 40% of the EEG Surcharge Self consumption is interesting because the FiT is almost two times smaller than the retail rates for the residential sector (before the EEG surcharge on the self-consumption) ITALIA Installed PV Capacity : 18,3 GW (2013) Historical support : FiT Current Scheme: Source: Analyses E-CUBE Strategy Consultants, CPUC, BundesNetzAgentur Installed PV Capacity: 5,2 GW (2013) Historical support : Net metering and quotas Current Scheme: Net metering for PV < 1MWp FiT for PV 1 to 3 MWp Self Consumption (<500 kw at end of November 2014) : Scambio Sul Posto : Only remaining support scheme Ritiro Dedicato : aggregation mechanism organized by the public institutions without premium Quotas for plants > 3 MWp : Renewable Portfolio Standards (33% RE in 2020) The NEM scheme will evolve by 2017 (Bill AB 327) : Tax credits for the residential sector that help to reach grid parity Evolution of the retail rates (fix rates, minimum rates, changes in the block rates) New mechanism? Past NEM installations will remain under this scheme for 20 years 5

6 2 Cost shifts between the consumers of the electric system This scheme may produce cost shifts between the customers. In California, this is the first reason to the reform of net metering by 2017 Power (kw) Generation in excess SELF-CONSUMPTION OF PV IN REAL TIME (Illustration) Electricity exchanged Effectively self consumed energy PV Power curve Consumption curve Time (h) Valuation of self consumed energy THE AMERICAN NET METERING IS SIMPLE BUT LEADS TO HIGH COST SHIFTING BETWEEN CUSTOMERS All the generation of the PV that is consumed is valued at the retail rates The excess of energy at the end of the year is valued at the market prices or credited for the next year THE EUROPEAN SCHEME TENDS TO REDUCE THE COST SHIFTING OF SELF CONSUMPTION Valued at the retail rates, taxed in Germany (>10 kwp Valued at the market price + fix premium (IT) or FiT level (GE) Valued at the market price (IT) or the FiT (GE) Cost shifting HIGH Energy valued significantly higher than the avoided costs The retail rates structure does not represent the structure of the costs : block rates, small or no fix rates, tax for RE or network In CA : net metering would shift 1 billions USD to non solar customer by 2020 LOW The mechanism encourage to self consume the electricity which may reduce the cost for the distribution network and the electric system There are still cost shifts, but they are reduced compared to net metering : the use of the network is partly paid Source: Analyses E-CUBE Strategy Consultants, CPUC, AEEG, BundesNetzAgentur 6

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