Priority among EPAs - Impacts of Trade Liberalization -

Transcription

1 Priority among EPAs - Impacts of Trade Liberalization - Kenichi Kawasaki RIETI, Japan October October 2011

2 Overview Priority among EPAs Macroeconomic benefits of bilateral trade liberalization will be the largest with China, followed by EU, Japan and USA Relative significance of trade creation and trade diversion effects of regional trade liberalization will vary among the economies The wider the participants of regional trade agreements and the higher their levels of achievements, the larger their economic benefits 1

3 I. Impacts of Bilateral Trade Liberalization

4 Impacts of EPAs: Japan Japan s real GDP gains from bilateral trade liberalization will be the largest with China followed by USA, Thailand and EU. 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 Japan s real GDP gains from bilateral trade liberalization 2

5 Impacts of EPAs: EU EU real GDP gains from bilateral trade liberalization will be the largest with China followed by Japan, Russia, India and USA. 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 0,00 EU s real GDP gains from bilateral trade liberalization 3

6 Impacts of EPAs: USA USA s real GDP gains from bilateral trade liberalization will be the largest with EU followed by China and Japan. 0,14 0,12 0,10 0,08 0,06 0,04 0,02 0,00 USA s real GDP gains from bilateral trade liberalization 4

7 Impacts of EPAs: China China s real GDP gains from bilateral trade liberalization will be the largest with EU followed by USA and Japan. 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 China s real GDP gains from bilateral trade liberalization 5

8 EPA Partners Ranking China will generate the largest real GDP gains from bilateral trade liberalization. This position will be followed by EU, Japan and USA Significance of generating real GDP gains from bilateral trade liberalization 6

9 II. Impacts of Regional Trade Liberalization

10 Development of Regional Integration Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has emerged in the Asia-Pacific (APEC) region. Other agreements include Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in East Asia. Russia Canada, Meico USA Chile Peru Regional integration framework APEC RCEP Japan, China, Korea TPP Australia, New Zealand ASEAN Singapore, Brunei Malaysia, Viet Nam India Hong Kong; China Chinese T aipei Papua New Guinea Indonesia Philippines Thailand Laos Cambodia Myanmar 7

11 Impacts of RTAs: Japan Japan s real GDP gains from East Asia trade liberalization is estimated to be larger than TPP and a Japan-EU EIA. But 1,4 Real GDP gains from regional trade liberalization 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 Global FTAAP RCEP TPP9+Japan Japan-EU 8

12 Impacts of RTAs: EU EU s trade diversion effects of Asia-Pacific trade liberalization will be sizable in comparison with the benefits of bilateral trade liberalization with China, Japan and USA 1,0 Real GDP gains from regional trade liberalization 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0-0,2-0,4 Global FTAAP RCEP TPP9+Japan EU-China EU-Japan EU-USA 9

13 Impacts of RTAs: USA USA s real GDP gains from global trade liberalization will be larger than Trans-Pacific and Trans-Atlantic Partnerships. 0,4 Real GDP gains from regional trade liberalization 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0-0,1 Global FTAAP RCEP TPP9+Japan USA-EU 10

14 Impacts of RTAs: China China s real GDP gains from Asia-Pacific wide, and moreover, global trade liberalization will be far larger than East Asia trade liberalization. 8,0 Real GDP gains from regional trade liberalization 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0-2,0 Global FTAAP RCEP TPP9+Japan China-EU 11

15 (Reference)

16 CGE Model Estimates CGE model estimates compare two equilibrium states, one without trade liberalization and two with trade liberalization, at some time in the future. GDP Estimated economic impacts of trade liberalization Without trade liberalization With trade liberalization Impacts Trade Liberalization Source: Author 12 Future