An Outlook of the Colombian Economy Mauricio Cárdenas

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1 An Outlook of the Colombian Economy Mauricio Cárdenas Minister of Finance and Public Credit January, 2014

2 Agenda 1. Policy strategy 2. Macroeconomic achievements 3. Economic Outlook and Financial Plan

3 Fiscal Consolidation The Fiscal Rule: Discipline for the National Central Government Structural Balance of the CG (% of GDP) 0-0, ,4-2,4-2,3-2,2-2,1-2,0-1,9-1,6-1,4-1,2-1,0-0,8-1 -1,5-2 -2,5-3 Ar$cle 5 Fiscal Rule. ( ) the Na$onal Government will enforce an annual decreasing path for the deficit of the structural fiscal balance. Law 1473 of Source: Ministry of Finance. Structural Deficit Targets 2014: 2.3% of GDP 2018: 1.9% of GDP 2022: 1.0% of GDP

4 Inflation targeting Inflation is at the lowest level in decades Consumer price index (Annual variation) 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1,94% dic-03 dic-04 dic-05 dic-06 dic-07 dic-08 dic-09 dic-10 dic-11 dic-12 dic-13 Target range Source: DANE.

5 Monetary and exchange rate policy 5,5% Low inflation expectations give ample space for countercyclical monetary policy 5,25% Central Bank interest rate 5,0% 4,75% 4,5% 4,0% 3,5% 3,25% 3,25% 3,0% Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Source: Central Bank.

6 Monetary and exchange rate policy Interventions in the market have stabilized the exchange rate and increased the international reserves Exchange rate and interventions in the exchange market (US Million) International reserves (US$ Million) Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Interventions USD millions (right axis) Exchange rate Source: Central Bank.

7 Agenda 1. Policy strategy 2. Macroeconomic achievements 3. Economic Outlook and Financial Plan

8 8,0 Economic growth Consolidation of economic growth Quarterly GDP (Annual % variation) 8,0 6,4 6,6 6,0 4,0 5,1 5,4 3,7 3,0 3,6 4,2 5,1 5,5 5,9 4,9 3,3 3,9 5,1 2,0 1,3 1,4 3,0 2,8 2,6 0,0 0,2 1,0 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III Source: DANE

9 Economic growth Highest growth rate in the region* Annual GDP growth Q3(%) 6,0 5,0 5,1 4,7 4,4 4,0 3,3 3,0 2,0 1,0 2,2 1,3 1,1 0,0 COLOMBIA CHILE PERU URUGUAY BRASIL MEXICO VENEZUELA Source: The Economist- Boomberg.*InformaCon to December 19th, when Colombia s GDP figures were published

10 Source: The Economist- Boomberg.*InformaCon to December 19th, when Colombia s GDP figures were published Economic growth and 15th worldwide* Annual GDP growth Q3(%) , Moldova Mongolia Macao Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan China Sri Lanka Tajikistan Philippines Nigeria Singapore Indonesia Vietnam Namibia Colombia Malaysia Iceland India Chile Bahrain Latvia Morocco Peru Turkey Romania Macedonia South Korea Uruguay Israel Serbia Saudi Arabia Hong Kong Thailand Japan Tunisia Australia Lithuania Brazil Norway Canada Malta Poland Switzerland Hungary South Africa United States Taiwan United Kingdom Armenia Mexico Russia Germany Venezuela Slovakia Austria Belarus Bulgaria Estonia Denmark Belgium Sweden France Euro Area Croatia Netherlands Slovenia Finland Portugal Spain Czech Republic Ukraine Italy Greece Cyprus

11 Macroeconomic achievements The investment rate is at a record level 32% Investment rate (% of the GDP) 28% 27,2% 28,0% 28,4% 24% 23,2% 23,9% 24,5% 20% 18,8% 16% 14,2% 12% III Source: DANE.

12 Colombia is the Latin American country with the highest job creation rate 12,0% 10,7% Job creation Latam 6: Jobs created between Aug 2010 and Oct 2013 (% of Labor Force) 9,0% 8,5% 6,0% 5,6% 5,3% 3,0% COLOMBIA CHILE PERU* MEXICO** BRASIL ARGENTINA** 3,8% 3,4% Source: DANE & StaCsCcs Agencies.*Lima s Metropolitan Area.**InformaCon available for 3Q 2013.

13 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% - 2% - 4% - 6% oct- 08 ene- 09 abr- 09 Job creation Formal employment has increased since the approval of the tax reform jul- 09 Formal and Informal Working Population Criteria: Affiliation to Social Security* Quarterly moving average - Annual variation oct- 09 ene- 10 abr- 10 jul- 10 oct- 10 Tax Reform Approval ene- 11 abr- 11 jul- 11 Formal informal oct- 11 ene- 12 abr- 12 jul- 12 Ene-Oct 2013: new formal jobs Source: DANE. *Informal: Working populacon in posicons that do not contribute to social security. oct- 12 ene- 13 abr- 13 jul- 13 7,6% - 2,3% oct- 13

14 Macroeconomic achievements Fiscal balance: The 2012 surplus of the public sector was the highest of the last 49 years 1, ,00-2,00-3,00-4,00-5,00-6,00-7,00 Balance NFPS (% of GDP) 0,36 0,45-8, Source: Ministry of Finance.

15 Macroeconomic achievements 45 The misery index stands at historically low levels (Misery Index = Inflation + Unemployment) * Inflation Unemployment Misery Index Source: DGPM-MHCP based on Dane s ENH & GEIH. End of year. * 2013: data to November.

16 Macroeconomic achievements Colombia has the lowest level of inflation in the region 12,0 10,0 Latam 6: Inflation (annual variation 2013 ) 10,50 8,0 6,0 5,77 4,0 2,0 1,94 2,40 3,08 3,60 0,0 COLOMBIA CHILE* PERU MEXICO* BRAZIL* ARGENTINA* Source: Central Banks.*As of november 2013.

17 Reduction in poverty Colombia had the second largest reduction in poverty between 2010 and 2012 in Latin America Latam 6: Reduction in poverty between 2010 and 2012 (Variation in percentage points) 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% -10,0% -0,6-4,5 46,1% 45,5% -5,5 37,2% 31,3% 32,7% -4,0 25,8% 24,9% 20,9% -0,7-3,2 15,1% 14,4% 8,6% 5,4% PERU COLOMBIA BRASIL* ARGENTINA CHILE* MEXICO Source: DANE & StaCsCcs Agencies. CEPAL. World Bank.*As of 2011 (compared with 2009).

18 Reduction in inequality and the largest reduction in inequality during the same period Latam 6: Reduction in GINI coefficient between 2010 and 2012 (Variation in points) 60,0 55,0 50,0 45,0 40,0 56,0-2,1 53,9 42,7-2,0 40,7 46,9-1,7 45,2 50,9-1,1 49,8 52,4-0,8 51,6 53,3-0,7 52,6 35,0 30,0 COLOMBIA ARGENTINA PERU* MEXICO CHILE* BRASIL Source: DANE & StaCsCcs Agencies. CEPAL. World Bank.*As of 2011 (compared with 2009).

19 Agenda 1. Policy strategy 2. Macroeconomic achievements 3. Economic Outlook and Financial Plan

20 Outlook The economy is expected to grow at its potential rate in 2014 Economic growth (Annual variation) 6,7 6,9 6, ,6 1,7 2,5 3,9 5,3 4,7 3,5 1,7 4,0 4,2 4,5 4, * 2014* Source: DANE.*ProjecCons.

21 Economic Outlook FED tapering will have two effects on the Colombian economy Short run Effect: Financial Sector Rise of US Bonds interest rates NegaCve effect on interest rates in Colombia and Latam Increased volaclity of Latam debt Long run Effect: Real Sector FED Tapering is the result of be_er economic condicons in the US Recovery of US demand means higher growth of exports for Colombia Sustained economic growth in the long run

22 6 Economic Outlook FED tapering will represent an external shock on the economy US Interest Rates (%) U.S. 10-yr yield U.S. Fed funds rate Source: Bloomberg.

23 Economic Outlook New Infrastructure projects will contribute to maintain economic growth under adverse external conditions 36 projects under public inicacve 9 open biddings Total Investment: 47trillion COP 11 trillion COP for the first 9 projects Tolls account for around 50% of total incomes

24 Economic Outlook Potential growth for the economy will increase from 4.6% to a path between 5.0% and 5.3% 8 Effects of infrastructure projects on potencal GDP 7 Annual variation, % ,3 4, Scenario including infrastructure projects Current scenario Source: DNP- NaConal Planning Department.

25 Economic Outlook Average annual impact of projects on GDP accounts for 1.56% from 2015 Efecto de los proyectos 4G sobre el PIB Impact on GDP 1.63% Number of new jobs: 180,000 to 450,000. Most benefited sectors between 2015 and 2019: - Civil works: 11.3% average growth - Non- metallic minerals: 5.5% growth - Products from non- metallic minerals: 4.4% growth. Direct Indirect Source: DNP- NaConal Planning Department.

26 Colombian local interest rates have decreased since November 8 Public Debt Interest Rates (%) 3,3 7,5 7 6,5 6 5,5 5 4,5 4 3,1 2,9 2,7 2,5 2,3 2,1 1,9 1,7 1,5 3,5 1,3 Jan- 13 Feb- 13 Mar- 13 Apr- 13 May- 13 Jun- 13 Jul- 13 Aug- 13 Sep- 13 Oct- 13 Nov- 13 Dec- 13 Jan- 14 Internal TES 2022 Global TES year Treasuries (right axis) Source: Bloomberg.

27 Public Debt Evolution of Foreign Capital Funds COP Million Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 8,0% 7,0% 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% Percentage Fondos Foreign de Capital Funds Extranjero Participación Participation tenedores of foreign extranjeros TES holders sobre on total saldo TES de holders TES Source: Ministry of Finance.

28 Financial Plan 2014 USD million USD million SOURCES 24,915 USES 24,915 Disbursements 19,991 Deficit 9,469 External 4,000 Of which: Bonds 2,000 External Debt Interests 2,368 Multilaterals 2,000 Internal Debt Interests 7,152 Internal 15,992 TES 15,984 FEPC 1,685 Auctions 9,654 0 Public Entities 3,828 Central Bank Losses 659 FEPC and others 2,503 0 Others 7 Sentences 158 Accruing Adjustments Amortizations 12,074 Initial Availability 1,927 External Debt 2,395 In USD 1,146 Internal Debt 9,679 In COP Treasury Operations 2,293 Final Availability 870 In USD 486 Floating Debt 633 In COP 384 Source: Ministry of Finance.

29 An Outlook of the Colombian Economy Mauricio Cárdenas Minister of Finance and Public Credit January, 2014

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