Leasing market in Poland after the 1st half of Press Conference Polish Leasing Association 29th July 2010 Intercontinental Hotel Warsaw

Transcription

1 Leasing arket in Poland after the 1st half of 10 Press Conference Polish Leasing Association 29th July 10 Intercontinental Hotel Warsaw

2 Mebers of Polish Leasing Association Bankowy Fundusz Leasingowy S.A. BAWAG LEASING & FLEET Sp. z o.o. BGŻ Leasing Sp. z o.o. BNP Paribas Lease Group Sp. z o.o. BRE Leasing Sp. z o.o. BZ WBK Finanse & Leasing S.A. Caterpillar Financial Services Poland Sp. z o.o. De Lage Landen Leasing Polska S.A. Deutsche Leasing Polska S.A. DnB Nord Leasing Sp. z o.o. Europejski Fundusz Leasingowy S.A. Fortis Lease Polska Sp. z o.o. Getin Leasing S.A. Handlowy-Leasing S.A. IKB Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o. Ioconsult Polska Sp. z o.o. Iorent Leasing Polska Sp. z o. o. ING Lease (Polska) Sp. z o.o. Kredyt Lease S.A. Masterlease Polska S.A. Mercedes-Benz Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o. Millenniu Leasing Sp. z o.o. NOMA 2 Sp. z o.o. Nordea Finance Polska S.A. ORIX Polska S.A. PEKAO Leasing Sp. z o.o. Raiffeisen Leasing Polska S.A. Scania Finance Polska Sp. z o.o. SEB Leasing Polska Sp.z o.o. SG Equipent Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o. SGB-Trans-Leasing PTL Sp. z o.o. Sieens Finance Sp. z o.o. VB Leasing Polska Polska S.A. VFS Usługi Finansowe Polska Sp. z o.o. Volkswagen Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o. Polski Związek Wynaju i Leasingu Pojazdów

3 Macroeconoic environent

4 The stages of global and Polish econoic crisis Euro zone Financial crisis (financial and raw aterial arkets failure) Bank arket failure Real sphere crisis (trade, production, orders, retail sale) Labour arket crisis (uneployent growth, low consuption level, deleveraging of consuers) Fiscal crisis Poland

5 Scenario for Euro zone As far as it concerns real sphere, the crisis in Euro zone is over; last onths recorded the growth in production and export. The econoic growth in Europe is currently driven by export, ainly to the Asian arkets. Europe takes advantage of weak Euro. The spendings generated by the consuers are just starting to support the growth of GDP. The uneployent rate is still very high and it sees it will not be decreased soon. In our opinion the recession will not hit its botto again. Once the stiulating prograes are over, the econoic boo will be peranent but very oderate. The econoic boo shall not be seriously affected by saving prograes, which will be introduced in 11, and probles of PIGS countries. The growth of GDP: 1-1,2% in 10 and 1,4% in 11 r. The crisis reduced possible econoic growth. Geran econoy, which is iportant to Poland, will record faster growth than the whole Euro zone: 1,5-1,7% in 10 and circa 1,8% in 11. It is owing to the growth in production and export.

6 Scenario for Poland Industrial output +10,0% +9,0% Net export -1,0 pp -0,5 pp Individual consuption +2,2% +3,1% High growth in industrial output driven ailny by export to Euro zone but also by restored stocks in copanies. The average growth in May and June at the level of +14% y-o-y (+10.6% y-o-y in the 1st half of the year). We expect the possitive influence of the flood fro the 2nd half of 10. We are approaching the two-year period of strong growth in output. It is suggested by the continues growth in new orders (ainly for export) and high readings of the econoic factors, both in Poland and in Euro zone. After the break in Q1 (resulting fro harsh winter) the growth in construction output has been recorded since May. The annualised dynaic growth in export and iport in 10 has been recorded (on average +21% for the period fro January till June 10). We expect the growth in export will cease in 2nd half of 10 but the dynaics of iport will reain siilar. It will result in the growth of trade deficit and will negatively affect econoic growth, which is contrary to the situation of when it was foreign trade which supported econoic growth. The growth tendency in export will be continued in 11 ainly due to its cooperative character. 10 Retail sale 11 +4,5% +6,5% Uneployent +12,2% +11,5% GDP +3,1% +3,4% In our opinion export will not be affected by the saving prograes introduced in Europe and by the expected Polish Zloty strenghtening. The situation on the labour arket is being iproved. The uneployent rate in June decreased to 11.6% and is relatively low in coparison to the uneployent growth recorded after the crisis of and to the current uneployent growth in the developed econoies. Since May, after 15 onths of drops we have been observing the annualised growth of eployent in copanies. The eployent growth in the whole 10 will be liited. For four onths there has been a real growth in salaries and salary fund. This year growth depends on the revival in Euro zone, which is caused by stable but liited private consuption in 10. Further iproveent on the labour arket (lower uneployent rate and significant salary growth) will decide about the growth of the private consuption in 11. Consuer ood is iproving. The growing public debt will call the consolidation of public finance in 11, which will liit the econoic growth in 11. As of 12 we expect the growth of GDP, siilar to the rate of econoic growth.

7 Copany investent

8 Copany investent ain deterinants (1) Rating of investent continuity and the share of copanies executing investent New investent rating The investent in econoy dropped in of 0.8% and in Q1 10 of 12.4% st y 10 ar 10 aj 10 rz lis w lip aj ar st y lis rz w lip aj ar st y rz lis w lip aj ar However, we ay observe significant iproveent of copany ood, the increase of copany s activity security and better financial results generated by copanies. Depozyty banków koercyjnych od fir [ld PLN] 160 st y As a result, the new investent rating is at the level siilar to the one of The share of copanies currently executing investent dropped in Q2 10 to the historically low level of 61.6%. 170 The copany investent dropped in of 11.9% (fixed prices) but in the case of public sector the investent grew of 8.5%; in the private sector the investent dropped of 17.2% (current prices). The public infrastructural investent enabled keeping the expenditure at the level siilar to the one of. Data of Polish National Bank

9 Copany investent ain deterinants (2) Average level of production force usage Low usage of production force in econoy (77.4%). Good result in industrial output in Q1 (+9.4% y-o-y) was not reflected in the significant growth of the production force usage (only 0.2 pp). It was the result of harsh winter and the 17% drop in construction production in Q1. The European Union funds will support the investent within the following years: PLN 10 billion in PLN 17 billion in PLN 27 billion in 10 PLN 51 billion in 11 Good results in foreign direct investent for the period fro January 10 till May 10. The results achieved by industry increase the usage of production force (+12% in the 2nd half of 10). Data of Polish National Bank The end of Q3 10 is a breakthrough for the copany investent. Big copanies and export entrepreneurs will increase the level of investent as first. These copanies take the greatest advantage of the current revival in industry; they are also in the best financial condition. We expect that big copanies started to increase the expenditure at the end of Q2 10. It is suggested by the growing production of investent goods. As a result of growing doestic deand, SMEs sector will coence the investent in Q4 10. The investent in econoy will increase in 10 of 3% and in 11 of 8%. The investent expenditure will still be strongly supported with the infrastructural projects.

10 Leasing and rental arket

11 Leasing and investent between 04 and 10 35,0 Rynek leasingu ogółe [ld PLN] 32,6 60% 32,9 50% ziana r/r 30,0 15%,0 14,2 15,0 50% 34% 28% 25,0 40% 23,2 23,0 21,8 1% 1% % inwestycji ogółe sfinansowanych leasingie 16,9% 17% 30% % 16,3 19% 15,4% 15% 14,1% 10% 0% 13% 12,4% -10% 10,0 -% -30% 5,0-40% Inwestycje ogółe [ld zł] realna ziana r/r 17,6% (P) % 15% 14,9% ,4% 9,6% 10% 131 3,0% 6,5% 5% -0,8% 50 0% 0-5% (P) 10,5% -30% 0, ,8% 11% 10 (P) Source: PLA 10,7% 9% (P) 10 (P) The average annualised growth on the leasing arket between 04 and 07 aounted to 32%, which was better result than the dynaics of investent in econoy aounting to 11%. As a result, the share of leasing in financing the investent grew significantly. In the leasing arket was ahead the coing econoic crisis recording the decrease in turnover since May. The whole arket slowed down ainly due to truck vehicle sector, which in the 2nd half of faced the drops of 40%. Transport industry as first reacted to the econoic recession in Euro zone, which started in the 2nd half of. Relatively low decrease of investent in resulted fro public infrastructural investent, which is financed ainly with the European Union funds. The current results of the leasing industry suggest the growth in copany investent and recovery of econoy. The penetration factor of leasing in investent dropped in to 10.5%, which is lower than the Europan average of 12.2% in.

12 The results of leasing industry after the 1st half of 10 (1) Assets financed with leasing Pojazdy I-VI Assets financed with credit I-VI 10 ziana ,4% OSD ,4% Pojazdy ciężarowe ,7% Pozostałe pojazdy ,3% ,9% Ruchoości raze ,2% Nieruchoości - finansowanie ,1% Maszyny IT Saoloty, statki, kolej Pozostałe ruchoości Nieruchoości - sao zarządzanie Leasing ogółe - finanansowanie -24,6% 90,4% -15,0% -4,1% Source: PLA

13 The results of leasing industry after the 1st half of 10 (2) The investent crisis aong SMEs in resulted in 29% drop in the new production of real estate leasing. The year 10 revived the real estate arket. Since March, after 22 onths of drops, we have been observing the growth of values regarding financed annualised assets. The growth aounted to 5.0% yo-y in Q1 10 and 19.1% y-o-y in Q2 10. This tendency is stable. All assets financed by leasing copanies Pojazdy I-VI I-VI 10 ziana ,1% OSD ,0% Pojazdy ciężarowe ,7% Pozostałe pojazdy ,3% Ruchoości raze ,3% Nieruchoości - finansowanie ,1% Maszyny IT Saoloty, statki, kolej Pozostałe ruchoości Nieruchoości - sao zarządzanie Leasing ogółe - finanansowanie 2,1% -24,0% 94,6% -13,9% 4,9% The sector of light vehicles, driven by the sale of societe vehicles, is ainly responsible for the recovery. The growth in this sector aounted to 137% y-o-y in the fist half of the year. It is ainly the result of the changes in the rules of VAT deduction which were announced by tax authorities. Also the sector of truck vehicles records better results. The growth of turnover in Q1 10 aounted to 3.3% y-o-y and to 22.1% in Q2. It is ainly the result of low base. This sector suffered the least during the financial crisis. Due to the crisis in international transport, leasing copanies were recording lower turnover in financing the truck vehicles as of Q2. IT sector still has not fully recovered fro crisis. The value of the achinery financed by leasing copanies in 10 is often supported with credit. As a result, the share of agricultural achinery and edical equipent in the structure of new production is growing The significant growth in the planes, vessels, railway sector is an effect of cooperation with self-governents individual transactions concerning the leasing of railway stock and having high individual value. Source: PLA

14 The copany results after the 1st half of % Łączne aktywa sfinansowane w I połowie 10 [ln zł] 60% Ziana sprzedaży r/r % 40% 42% % 15% 8% 972-2% % % 12% 0% % 382 -% -40% -40% 0-60% L EF R f ai en is fe B R E iu nn e ill M o ka Pe B Z B W K VB ng si a Le SG Eq t en p ui B y ow k an IN G 5% growth of assets financed by leasing copanies was achieved owing to very good results recorded by the given copanies. Big diversity of results. It is the result of low base in when a part of the leasing industry liited the production due to probles with liquidity and growing risk. The copanies dealing ainly with real estate industry record the drops of turnover in 10. Contrary to, bigger leasing copanies record faster growth. In the 1st half of 10 the sale of ovable leasing grew in the case of 5 leading copanies of 18.2% y-o-y, whereas, the reaining part of the arket recorded the growth of 8.4% y-o-y. Source: PLA

15 The results of leasing industry after the 1st half of 10 real estate Struktura przediotowa rynku leasingu nieruchoości w I półroczu 10 roku Hotele i obiekty rekreacyjne 2,6% Inne 4,2% Budynki prze ysłow e 24,0% Struktura podiotowa rynku leasingu nieruchoości w I półroczu 10 roku Raiffeisen 4,0% BRE 31,5% Others 15,2% BZ WBK 4,9% Obiekty biurow e 36,5% Obiekty handlow e i usługow e 32,8% Pekao 6,4% ING 14,9% BNP Paribas 6,9% Millenniu 8,0% Bankow y 8,2% The value of real estate properties leased in the first half of 10 aounted tp PLN 561 illion, which eans the drop of 54% in coparison to the first half of. The value of financed assets in Q1 and Q2 10 did not exceed PLN 300 illion. Negative dynaics of the arket resulted fro the 59% drop of the average transactional value: fro PLN 9.9 illion in the first half of to PLN 4.3 illion in 10. The nuber of reported contracts reains at very siilar level: 104 in the first half of and 113 in 10. Coparing to the leasing arket connected to real estate is uch ore split. In two thirds of transactions (as far as it concerns both value and nuber) were concluded by three biggest leasing copanies. In 10 this rate for the turnover value has aounted to 46%. The presented subject and object structure of the arket includes also the anaged assets without financing. Source: PLA

16 Currency structure of the new production on leasing arket Struktura walutowa nowej produkcji - nieruchoości Struktura walutowa nowej produkcji - ruchoości 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% Leasing w PLN 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% % 10% This year, siilarly to, leasing in Polish Zloty is doinant as far as it concerns the structure of new production regarding real estate leasing. Its share increased fro 81.5% in to 85.5% in 10. Q2 10 recorded slight growth of interest in foreign currency leasing aong entrepreneurs: 15.7% share in real estate financing in coparison with 13.5% in Q1. Previously, real estate leasing was ainly financed with foreign currency. However, the share of doestic currency in financing the new production was gradually growing. This year it aounts to 54.8% in coparison with 35.6% in and around 25% in 07-. Source: PLA 10 Q II 10 IQ IV Q III Q Q II IQ IV Q Q III Q II IQ 10 Q II 10 IQ IV Q Q III Q II IQ IV Q III Q Q II IQ 07 0% 0% 07 Leasing w walucie obcej % Leasing w walucie obcej 10% Leasing w PLN

17 Investent financing leasing vs investent credit The total value of leasing aount due at the end of June 10, equal to PLN 53.4 billion (PLN 45.4 billion for ovables and PLN 8.0 billion in the case of real estate), is siilar to the value of the investent credit balance granted to the copanies (PLN 60.9 billion). Leasing is the ain, except for credits, source of financing the investent which functions in econoy Saldo kredytów inwestycyjnycych udzielonych przedsiębiorstwo przez banki [ld PLN] The above entioned value of the active ovable leasing portfolio including the portfolio of leasing aount due by the fleet copanies belonging to PZWLP is equal to PLN 2.2 billion (PLN 1.8 billion as on 31st Dec. ) The value of leasing aount due for ovables has decresed of 4.8% within the last 12 onths. However, it is higher of 3.4% than two years ago and higher of.2% than on 31st Dec ar 10 aj li s st y ar aj li p w rz li s st y ar aj li p w rz 07 li s st y st y 07 ar 07 aj 07 li p 07 w rz ,0 25% Wartość aktywnego portfela leasingu ruchoości ziana do poprzedniego okresu 60,0 16,2% 50,0 40,0 48,4 43,9 47,7 % 47,3 45,4 37,8 15% 10% 10,2% 30,0 5% -1,4%,0-0,9% 0% -3,9% 10,0-5% 0,0 The data provided by National Polish Bank concerning the oney supply (30th June 10) shows slight liitation of new loans with regard to investent credits. Within the last 12 onths the balance of such credits has decreased of 1.8% but it is still higher of 19.0% than two years ago. Such situation results ainly fro the liitation of investent introduced by copanies theselves. On the other hand, banks were reluctant to grant credits since the value of bad corporate debts was growing (PLN 26 billion as on 28th Feb. 10, which constitutes 12% of the whole portfolio). The current records provided by banks show that the situation is being noralised. The iproveent of bank situation and liquidity has no reflection in the increase of the nuber of new loans. The total value of credits and loans,equal to PLN 7 billion, granted to copanies is higher of 5% than 12 onths earlier. The growth of the copany credit balance is expected in % Source: PLA, National Polish Bank

18 The forecast of leasing industry results (1) Assets financed with leasing ziana 10/ 15,3% ziana 11/10-0,7% OSD ,3% ,9% Pojazdy ciężarowe ,2% ,3% Pozostałe pojazdy ,1% 554 8,0% ,2% 22,9% -0,2% ,8% ,4% Nieruchoości ,0% ,2% Leasing ogółe ,9% ,7% Pojazdy Maszyny IT Saoloty, statki, kolej Pozostałe ruchoości Ruchoości raze I-VI 10 VII-XII 10 (P) 10 (P) -8,8% 8,0% 11 (P) Assets financed with loans Pojazdy ziana 11/10 19,6% OSD ,6% Pojazdy ciężarowe ,3% Pozostałe pojazdy Maszyny IT Saoloty, statki, kolej Pozostałe ruchoości ,3% Ruchoości raze ,7% I-VI 10 Nieruchoości Leasing ogółe VII-XII 10 (P) 10 (P) 11 (P),0% 10,0% 10,0%,0% 10,0% 10,0% In 10 leasing arket is ahead of the expected in the 2nd half od the year revival of investent executed by private copanies. We expect that in the following quarters the situation of the industry will be systeatically iproved. The relatively low usage of production capabilities aong copanies suggests that private investent will significantly speed up in 11. The forecast is based on this assuption and, therefore, it is so conservative. The recent akroeconoic data gives hope that the cycle of econoy recovery fro the current crisis will be uch shorter than in The expected at the turn of Q3 and Q4 10 growth of private investent will be financed ainly with loans. The growing absorption of European Union funds and greater interest of leasing copanies in such products will be favourable. 33,7% Source: PLA

19 The forecast of leasing industry results (2) Assets financed by leasing copanies ziana 10/ 16,0% ziana 11/10-0,5% OSD ,9% ,8% Pojazdy ciężarowe ,3% ,3% Pojazdy Pozostałe pojazdy I-VI 10 VII-XII 10 (P) 10 (P) 11 (P) ,1% 554 8,0% ,3% 25,8% 1,1% ,4% ,0% Nieruchoości ,0% ,2% Leasing ogółe ,5% ,1% Maszyny IT Saoloty, statki, kolej Pozostałe ruchoości Ruchoości raze -8,2% 10,3%,0% 10,0% 10,0% Source: PLA

20 The results of PZWLP (Polish Association of Vehicle Leasing and Rental) after Q2 10 PZWLP 16 eber copanies a new copany in Association VB Leasing will start to report the results in 11 PZWLP in total after Q * vehicles, including: FSL LS FM The 7,72 % increase of the nuber of vehicles in coparison with FSL develops at the fastest pace Due to the lack of updated inforation, the data fro two eber copanies regarding Q3 and Q4 was used in conclusion Source: PZWLP

21 Leaders of fleet industry (ebers of PLA and PZWLP) Leaders in all three categories FSL, LS, FM 1. Masterlease Polska LeasePlan Fleet Manageent Arval Service Lease ING Car Lease Carefleet The biggest individual fleet aong analysed copanies 1. Corpo Flota Masterlease Polska Bankowy Fundusz Leasingowy BRE Leasing ING Car Lease 755 Source: PZWLP

22 Leaders of fleet industry (ebers of PLA and PZWLP) Leaders of FSL sector 1. LeasePlan Fleet Manageent 2. Masterlease Polska 3. Arval Service Lease 4. ING Car Lease 5. Carefleet Leaders of LS sector 1. Masterlease Polska Bankowy Fundusz Leasingowy Volkswagen Leasing ING Car Lease 7 Leaders of FM sector 1. Corpo Flota 2. LeasePlan Fleet Manageent 3. KBC Autolease 4. BRE Leasing 5. Carefleet Source: PZWLP

23 Mebers of PLA and PZWLP leaders of fleet arket total nuerical structure by product Based on results of 16 copanies PLA and PZWLP in total after Q1 and Q2 10: vehicles Increase of 6,19 % in coparison with FSL develops at the fastest pace Source: PZWLP

24 Press conference, January 10 PLA wants aendents in Polish Econoic Law which will have the following effects: The increase of effectiveness in the case of European Union fund usage by self- governents - through reiburseent of the cost incurred with regard to the purchase of the leasing subject - increase in investent which does not affect the indebtedness ratio Current status: The possibility to reiburse the price of leasing purchase is included in all the biggest doestic prograes and six Regional Operational Prograes. The rest of Managing Authorities declare to consider such possibility. PLA has begun negotiations concerning the usage of alternative leasing by Local SelfGoverning Entities, whose level of indebtedness, while aintaining the sae access to investent goods, would be lower than in the case of investent executed by theselves with the usage of other resources, e.g. credit. Source: PLA

25 The iproveent of tax-payer security: - when tax authorities issue contradictory decisions - in the case of anticipatory terination of leasing agreeent Current status: The decision of Supree Adinistrative Court of Poland with regard to reinvoicing the insurance cost was postponed by the oent seven judges of Supree Adinistrative Court of Poland will pass a resolution. The Ministry of Finance has issued possitive decision regarding new definition of the initial value of leasing subject new leasing of the subject originating fro the agreeent terinated before it expires is possible. The access for entrepreneurs and consuers to econoical financing Current status: Consuer leasing was possitively assessed during consultancies which took place aong various inistries and regarded Decontrolling Act. The Ministry of Finance and Office of Copetition and Consuer Protection express possitive opinion about the proposed solutions. During the debate focused on, aong others, consuer leasing, the representatives of all political forces supported the necessity to ipleent legislative aendents within that scope. Source: PLA

26 The possibility to regain financial resources which are frozen in real estate properties, including PPP forula Current Status: Group of Treasurers associated in Unia Metropolii Polskich (Union of Polish Metropolises) supported the efforts of PLA towards ipleentation of the legislative aendents which would enable the introduction of reverse leasing for unicipal real estate properties onto the arket. The City Hall of Warsaw have prepared the draft of the Act on Municipal Real Estate to be opinioned by the Ministry of Infrastructure PPP Center, PLA is one of its Founders, has finished elaboarating the stages owing to which the public entity will work on PPP project; the stages constitute the base for work perfored by individual theatic groups who focus on the specific fields of public assignent realisation. Source: PLA

27 The stiulation of real estate leasing arket: - through reducing the duration of real estate leasing agreeent to five years - through enabling perpetual usufruct leasing Current status: The Ministry of Fianance has expressed possitive opinion about the proposed solutions. Entrepreneurs will be otivated to invest owing to the fact that exploitation costs regarding copany cars will be decreased The road safety and environent protection will be iproved Current status: PLA, together with Polish Autootive Industry Association, Polish Chaber of Autootive Industry and Związek Dealerów Saochodowych (Polish Autoobile Dealer Association) prepared a report entitled Crisis in autootive industry. Possible solutions. The report contains four key suggestions: full deduction of VAT for copany cars, the introduction of ecological tax, the introduction of consuer leasing and the iproveent of car testing points functioning. Source: PLA

28 Związek Polskiego Leasingu (Polish Leasing Association) ul. Rejtana 17, Warszawa tel.: (22) fax: (22) e-ail: