Dementia Estimates and Projections: Queensland and its Regions

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1 October 2007 Dementia Estimates and Projections: Queensland and its Regions Report by Access Economics Pty Limited for Alzheimer's Australia (Qld)

2 CONTENTS Executive summary...i 1. Background Prevalence estimates and projections Prevalence rates used in the projections Current estimates and projections, Australia Prevalence for Queensland as a whole Prevalence estimates and projections for the Queensland health service districts Incidence estimates and projections...37 References...66 Appendix ABS special data request...68 FIGURES Figure 2-1: Previous (2002) projection of dementia prevalence, Figure 2-2: Prevalence rates for current estimates, by age group & gender (%) 4 Figure 2-3: Dementia prevalence, Australia, by gender, Figure 2-4: Dementia prevalence, Australia, by gender, Figure 2-5: Dementia prevalence ( 000) by State/Territory, 2000 and Figure 2-6: Dementia prevalence by State/Territory, Figure 2-7: Map of Queensland Health Service Districts 11 Figure 2-8: Dementia Prevalence, % Share of Queensland Total 14 Figure 2-9: Dementia prevalence, Queensland Northern Regions, selected years 14 Figure 2-10: Dementia prevalence, Queensland Central Regions, selected years 15 Figure 2-11: Dementia prevalence, Queensland Southern Regions, selected years 15 Figure 2-12: Dementia prevalence (% population), Queensland regions, Figure 2-13: Dementia prevalence, Queensland, by age group, Figure 3-1: Dementia Incidence by State/Territory (% of Total), Figure 3-2: Dementia Incidence, % Share of Queensland Total 41 Figure 3-3: Dementia Incidence, Queensland Northern Regions, Selected Years 41 Figure 3-4: Dementia Incidence, Queensland Central Regions, Selected Years 42 Figure 3-5: Dementia Incidence, Queensland Southern Regions, Selected Years 42 Figure 3-6: Dementia Incidence (% population), Queensland Regions, Figure 3-7: Dementia Incidence, Queensland, by Age Group, While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this document, the uncertain nature of economic data, forecasting and analysis means that Access Economics Pty Limited is unable to make any warranties in relation to the information contained herein. Access Economics Pty Limited, its employees and agents disclaim liability for any loss or damage which may arise as a consequence of any person relying on the information contained in this document.

3 TABLES Table 2-1: Prevalence of dementia by age and gender, 2002 estimates 2 Table 2-2: SDAC prevalence estimates, by age and gender, Table 2-3: Meta-analysis prevalence rates, by 60+ age group & gender (%) 4 Table 2-4: Dementia Prevalence, Queensland, Table 2-5: Dementia Prevalence, Australia, Table 2-6: Dementia prevalence ( 000) by State/Territory, Table 2-7: Queensland Health Service Areas and Health Service Districts 10 Table 2-8: Dementia prevalence, Queensland regions, selected years 13 Table 2-9: Dementia Prevalence, Northern Health Service Area, Table 2-10: Dementia Prevalence, Central Health Service Area, Table 2-11: Dementia Prevalence, Southern Health Service Area, Table 2-12: Dementia Prevalence, Northern, Cairns & Hinterland, Table 2-13: Dementia Prevalence, Northern, Cape York, Table 2-14: Dementia Prevalence, Northern, Mackay, Table 2-15: Dementia Prevalence, Northern, Mount Isa, Table 2-16: Dementia Prevalence, Northern, Torres Strait, Table 2-17: Dementia Prevalence, Northern, Townsville, Table 2-18: Dementia Prevalence, Central, Northside, Table 2-19: Dementia Prevalence, Central, Central Queensland, Table 2-20: Dementia Prevalence, Central, Central West, Table 2-21: Dementia Prevalence, Central, Fraser Coast, Table 2-22: Dementia Prevalence, Central, Sunshine Coast & Cooloola, Table 2-23: Dementia Prevalence, Central, Wide Bay, Table 2-24: Dementia Prevalence, Southern, Southside, Table 2-25: Dementia Prevalence, Southern, Gold Coast, Table 2-26: Dementia Prevalence, Southern, South West, Table 2-27: Dementia Prevalence, Southern, Toowoomba & Darling Downs, Table 2-28: Dementia Prevalence, Southern, West Moreton South Burnett, Table 3-1: Incidence Rates, by 60+ Age Group & Gender (%) 37 Table 3-2: Dementia incidence ( 000), by State/Territory, Table 3-3: Dementia Incidence, Queensland Regions, Selected Years 40 Table 3-4: Dementia Incidence, Australia, Table 3-5: Dementia Incidence, Queensland, Table 3-6: Dementia Incidence, Northern Health Service Area, Table 3-7: Dementia Incidence, Central Health Service Area, Table 3-8: Dementia Incidence, Southern Health Service Area,

4 Table 3-9: Dementia Incidence, Northern, Cairns & Hinterland, Table 3-10: Dementia Incidence, Northern, Cape York, Table 3-11: Dementia Incidence, Northern, Mackay, Table 3-12: Dementia Incidence, Northern, Mount Isa, Table 3-13: Dementia Incidence, Northern, Torres Strait, Table 3-14: Dementia Incidence, Northern, Townsville, Table 3-15: Dementia Incidence, Central, Northside, Table 3-16: Dementia Incidence, Central, Central Queensland, Table 3-17: Dementia Incidence, Central, Central West, Table 3-18: Dementia Incidence, Central, Fraser Coast, Table 3-19: Dementia Incidence, Central, Sunshine Coast & Cooloola, Table 3-20: Dementia Incidence, Central, Wide Bay, Table 3-21: Dementia Incidence, Southern, Southside, Table 3-22: Dementia Incidence, Southern, Gold Coast, Table 3-23: Dementia Incidence, Southern, South West, Table 3-24: Dementia Incidence, Southern, Toowoomba & Darling Downs, Table 3-25: Dementia Incidence, Southern, West Moreton & South Burnett,

5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report presents data for Queensland and its regions on the prevalence and incidence of dementia currently, as well as projections for the future. Relative to the size of a population, prevalence is the total number of cases of dementia while incidence is the number of new cases in the population. 1 in 6 Australians with dementia live in Queensland (almost 30,000 in 2000 and close to 40,000 people in 2007), projected to increase to 171,000 by 2050, a more than fivefold increase over the period There will be as many people with dementia in Queensland in 2050 than there were in the whole of Australia in In 2007, there are projected to be almost 10,000 new cases of dementia diagnosed in Queensland. By 2050, there are projected to be over 41,000 new cases of dementia diagnosed every year, similar to the total number of cases in Queensland in Queensland together with the Northern Territory and Western Australia has the fastest growth in dementia prevalence and an increasing share of Australians with dementia live in Queensland. Over 50% of Queenslanders with dementia live in only three of the 17 Queensland health service districts (Southside, Northside - both of which cover Brisbane and the Gold Coast). Southside was the health service district with the greatest number of people with dementia (8,361 or 21% in 2007). Sunshine Coast & Cooloola and Gold Coast show the most rapid growth between 2002 and 2050 (respectively, 6.6 and 5.6 fold). The estimates are based on the most recent data, which show projections that are considerably higher than in the past (25% higher by 2050 than prevalence estimates from early 2003), due to increasing rates of diagnosis and revised population estimates. The higher results since 2003 show the sensitivity of the projections to relatively minor changes. While this means that such forecasts should be used with caution, it also indicates that any actual delay in the onset of dementia as a result, for example, of dementia research and medical breakthroughs would have a dramatic impact on the future number of cases and the real costs of dementia in Queensland (Access Economics, 2004). This report reinforces the critical importance of prevention activities, particularly research, in order to make the advances necessary to delay the onset of dementia. This will lead to a better quality of life for people in Queensland and make significant savings in the future cost burden of dementia. i

6 1. BACKGROUND Access Economics (2003) provided estimates and projections to Alzheimer s Australia in 2003 for the prevalence of dementia in Australia as a whole for the years 2002, 2011, 2021, 2031, 2041 and These estimates were based on age specific prevalence rates derived from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Survey of Disability Ageing and Carers (SDAC) for the years 1998 and 1993, together with international epidemiological data. The international data provided the more robust estimates of total prevalence, while the SDAC self-reported data (see ABS, 1999 for Survey methodology) provided Australian age-gender splits, including for people aged under 65 years. The main purpose of the 2003 Access Economics study was to provide the most reliable projections of the time, with an emphasis on the burgeoning economic cost of dementia due to demographic ageing, and the need for timely and cost-effective interventions to improve the quality of life for Australians with dementia as part of a national strategy to improve awareness, prevention and treatment of this important and under-recognised issue. Access Economics (2004) demonstrated that delays in the onset of Alzheimer s disease alone through prevention would produce substantial reductions in the future number of cases and in the real costs of dementia. It was shown that if the onset of Alzheimer s disease could be delayed by five years, by mid-century there would be a 49% reduction in the total number of cases projected. Subsequently, Professor Anthony Jorm and his colleagues at the Centre for Mental Health Research, Australian National University, estimated new prevalence and incidence rates (Jorm et al, 2005) based on the meta-analysis of European epidemiological studies by Wancata et al. (2003). In September 2004 the results of a more recent SDAC data were released (ABS, 2004), providing data collected June to November 2003, by severity of disability and by care setting including residential aged care facilities. In addition, release in September 2003 of detailed 2001 Census data has enabled the recalculation of ABS Series B (mid-case) population projections by demographic group and State/Territory; the fertility, mortality and migration assumptions are explained in ABS (2003). Alzheimer s Australia commissioned Access Economics to utilise the new data to estimate dementia prevalence and incidence for States and Territories, as well as a re-estimation for the whole of Australia. That report presents the findings, details the methodology and explains variations between these and former aggregate estimates for Australia from Access Economics (2003). Three companion reports for Alzheimer s Australia Vic (Access Economics, 2005a), for Alzheimer s Australia WA (Access Economics, 2005b) and for Alzheimer s Australia NSW (Access Economics, 2005c) detail dementia prevalence and incidence for Victoria, Western Australia and New South Wales and their respective regions. In 2007 Alzheimer s Australia (Qld) commissioned Access Economics to analyse and report on the dementia prevalence and incidence figures for Queensland. This report represents the findings. 1

7 2. PREVALENCE ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS 2.1 PREVALENCE RATES USED IN THE PROJECTIONS Access Economics (2003) presented age-specific dementia prevalence rates as shown in Table 2-1, resulting in estimates of 162,300 Australians with dementia in 2002, 0.8% of the population. TABLE 2-1: PREVALENCE OF DEMENTIA BY AGE AND GENDER, 2002 ESTIMATES Age Group s 2002 s 2002 People 2002 '000 % age group '000 % age group '000 % age group 1993 % age group % % % 0.1% % % % 1.2% % % % 6.0% % % % 23.4% Total % % % 0.6% Source: Access Economics (2003), p31. Applying these prevalence rates to estimates at that time of the growing Australian future population showed dementia reaching the half-million mark around 2041 and growing to 581,300 people by 2051, 2.3% of the then projected population (Figure 2-1). FIGURE 2-1: PREVIOUS (2002) PROJECTION OF DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, index number relative to 2002= Dementia growth Population growth Year Source: Access Economics (2003), p32. The report (p88) noted that these projections were likely to be conservative, since comparison of the 1993 and 1998 data showed an increase in the age prevalence of dementia over time (see final columns of Table 2-1), as diagnostics continue to improve: 2

8 The prevalence estimates will be conservative as they will not capture people whose dementia has not been diagnosed.the prevalence [projections] may be conservative as diagnoses may occur earlier in the future in line with the current trend. This indeed appears to be the case, as revealed in the new data. 2.2 CURRENT ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS, AUSTRALIA Access Economics acquired by special request new data (from the Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers released by the ABS in 2004) for dementia prevalence rates as well as revised ABS demographic projections by States, Territories and Victorian regions. The raw self-reported prevalence data provided which comprise much lower estimates than the true number of people with dementia for the reasons explained in Access Economics (2003) are shown, by age and gender, in Table 2-2. TABLE 2-2: SDAC PREVALENCE ESTIMATES, BY AGE AND GENDER, 2003 Age group (years) NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas ACT Australia (a) '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 MALES 0-59 np **0.1 np np - - np ** and over *8.6 *6.6 *5.5 *2.8 *3.2 **0.8 ** Total *9.5 *6.7 *5.5 *2.8 *3.2 **0.8 ** FEMALES 0-59 **0.2 **0.1 np - **0.1 np np ** and over *5.5 *5.5 *1.5 * Total *5.5 *5.6 *1.5 * PERSONS 0-59 **1.0 **0.2 **0.1 np **0.1 np **0.2 ** and over *2.3 * Total *2.3 * nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) np not available for publication but included in the totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated * estimate has a relative standard error of between 25% and 50% and should be used with caution. ** estimate has a relative standard error greater than 50%; considered too unreliable for general use. (a) Northern Territory data is not available for publication but is included in the totals. The SDAC data were useful in two respects: As previously, they provide (the only) estimate of the number of people with dementia in the population under 60, showing an estimated 1,700 Australians under 60 with dementia in 2003 (0.01% of Australians under 60), albeit with a very high standard error. The data for the population aged 60 and over show that there are no significant differences between State prevalence rates after standardising for age and gender distributions. 3

9 There were, however, significant differences for the Territories, with the Australian Capital Territory showing an over-representation of dementia given its distribution by age and gender, and the Northern Territory an underrepresentation relative to the national average. The Territory differences may be due to different rates of diagnosis and/or to the small sample size which, as highlighted in Table 2-2, remained a problem at the aggregated persons level for the Australian Capital Territory, Northern Territory and Tasmania. The SDAC prevalence data were, as in Access Economics (2003), compared with the latest meta-analyses by Jorm et al. (2005) which include Jorm et al. (1987), Hofman et al. (1991), Ritchie and Kildea (1995) and Lobo et al. (2000). From these studies we estimated prevalence rates for those over 60 as shown in Table 2-3, by averaging the rates from the source studies for each age-gender group. The averages derived are also depicted graphically in Figure 2-2 for comparative purposes. TABLE 2-3: META-ANALYSIS PREVALENCE RATES, BY 60+ AGE GROUP & GENDER (%) Age Band Jorm et al. (1987) Hofman et al. (1991) Ritchie & Kildea (1995) Lobo et al. (2000) Average F+M F M F+M F M F M FIGURE 2-2: PREVALENCE RATES FOR CURRENT ESTIMATES, BY AGE GROUP & GENDER (%) 30% 25% s s 20% % Population 15% 10% 5% 0% Age Group Applying these average rates to the Australian population generates estimates of the number of people with dementia, by age group and gender, for the years shown in Figure 2-3 and Figure

10 FIGURE 2-3: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, AUSTRALIA, BY GENDER, s s '000 Australians FIGURE 2-4: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, AUSTRALIA, BY GENDER, '000 Australians s s PREVALENCE FOR QUEENSLAND AS A WHOLE Applying these prevalence rates to the Queensland population generates estimates of the number of people with dementia, by age group and gender, for the years shown in Table 2-4. For comparative purposes, a similar table is provided for the whole of Australia (Table 2-5). 5

11 TABLE 2-4: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, QUEENSLAND, QUEENSLAND ,033 1,094 1,154 1,245 1,332 1,394 1,442 1,718 1,897 2,005 2, ,019 1,066 1,121 1,174 1,241 1,298 1,362 1,417 1,493 1,582 2,249 2,739 2,999 3, ,803 1,841 1,873 1,883 1,888 1,909 1,964 2,049 2,150 2,272 2,405 4,101 4,963 5,518 5, ,209 2,295 2,369 2,443 2,514 2,569 2,624 2,664 2,691 2,720 2,761 4,589 6,682 8,257 9, ,509 2,716 2,910 3,100 3,264 3,417 3,562 3,688 3,822 3,965 4,073 5,846 10,352 12,860 14, ,046 3,230 3,420 3,709 3,921 4,209 4,537 4,883 5,214 5,523 5,902 9,715 16,391 27,521 37,456 TOTAL M 11,565 12,151 12,737 13,398 13,956 14,603 15,305 16,057 16,795 17,537 18,337 28,405 43,223 59,369 72,866 % of M Pop'n 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.6% 2.0% 2.3% % M of total Prev 39.5% 39.7% 39.9% 40.1% 40.2% 40.4% 40.5% 40.8% 41.0% 41.2% 41.4% 43.3% 43.7% 42.8% 42.6% ,043 1,094 1, ,032 1,091 1,158 1,752 2,161 2,366 2, ,874 1,899 1,911 1,904 1,897 1,920 1,949 2,024 2,109 2,218 2,330 4,078 5,114 5,661 5, ,013 3,072 3,113 3,180 3,241 3,265 3,308 3,324 3,318 3,319 3,366 5,301 8,070 9,978 10, ,029 4,304 4,532 4,749 4,921 5,095 5,206 5,275 5,405 5,532 5,590 7,210 12,783 16,184 18, ,450 7,829 8,219 8,707 9,188 9,686 10,297 10,887 11,428 11,946 12,550 17,730 26,392 43,835 59,315 TOTAL F 17,682 18,453 19,181 20,005 20,783 21,580 22,450 23,298 24,140 24,993 25,917 37,200 55,760 79,324 98,249 % of F Pop'n 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 3.0% % F of total Prev 60.5% 60.3% 60.1% 59.9% 59.8% 59.6% 59.5% 59.2% 59.0% 58.8% 58.6% 56.7% 56.3% 57.2% 57.4% ,278 1,341 1,409 1,472 1,551 1,644 1,738 1,879 2,013 2,111 2,194 2,660 2,940 3,098 3, ,737 1,772 1,850 1,938 2,032 2,142 2,240 2,348 2,448 2,584 2,739 4,002 4,900 5,364 5, ,677 3,740 3,784 3,788 3,785 3,828 3,912 4,073 4,259 4,491 4,735 8,179 10,077 11,179 11, ,222 5,367 5,483 5,623 5,756 5,835 5,932 5,988 6,009 6,039 6,126 9,890 14,752 18,236 20, ,538 7,020 7,442 7,849 8,185 8,512 8,769 8,963 9,227 9,496 9,663 13,057 23,135 29,044 32, ,495 11,060 11,639 12,416 13,108 13,895 14,834 15,770 16,643 17,468 18,451 27,444 42,784 71,356 96,771 TOTAL P 29,248 30,604 31,918 33,403 34,739 36,182 37,754 39,355 40,935 42,530 44,254 65,605 98, , ,115 % of Pop'n 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.8% 2.3% 2.7% 6

12 TABLE 2-5: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA ,609 4,761 4,916 5,050 5,259 5,499 5,756 6,178 6,561 6,825 7,053 8,109 8,530 8,609 9, ,562 5,621 5,772 5,946 6,168 6,415 6,608 6,833 7,041 7,342 7,688 10,484 12,271 12,794 13, ,336 10,473 10,500 10,393 10,344 10,336 10,490 10,811 11,205 11,657 12,154 19,136 22,394 23,805 24, ,626 13,073 13,429 13,806 14,166 14,402 14,598 14,675 14,644 14,661 14,715 21,697 30,408 36,187 38, ,038 15,134 16,181 17,294 18,305 19,135 19,876 20,508 21,228 21,938 22,427 28,806 47,461 57,077 62, ,283 18,358 19,418 20,772 21,613 23,100 24,882 26,654 28,347 29,992 31,988 50,533 77, , ,021 TOTAL M 65,260 68,233 71,038 74,090 76,690 79,728 83,056 86,508 89,878 93,270 96, , , , ,295 % of M Pop'n 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% 1.6% 2.1% 2.4% % M of total Prev 38.1% 38.3% 38.4% 38.6% 38.8% 38.9% 39.1% 39.3% 39.5% 39.8% 40.0% 41.9% 42.8% 42.4% 42.4% ,381 2,448 2,519 2,583 2,691 2,818 2,953 3,188 3,398 3,555 3,704 4,372 4,552 4,528 4, ,314 4,337 4,442 4,564 4,718 4,868 4,990 5,136 5,276 5,498 5,760 8,211 9,493 9,874 10, ,094 11,133 11,069 10,927 10,827 10,849 10,941 11,217 11,562 11,973 12,366 19,400 23,051 24,106 24, ,056 18,323 18,493 18,692 18,921 18,895 18,987 18,897 18,743 18,631 18,714 25,788 37,172 43,280 45, ,845 25,326 26,542 27,814 29,001 29,931 30,439 30,813 31,312 31,813 31,880 37,320 59,887 72,050 76, ,476 47,753 49,892 52,227 54,230 56,933 60,317 63,453 66,346 69,057 72,346 97, , , ,308 TOTAL F 105, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,732 % of F Pop'n 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 2.1% 2.7% 3.2% % F of total Prev 61.9% 61.7% 61.6% 61.4% 61.2% 61.1% 60.9% 60.7% 60.5% 60.2% 60.0% 58.1% 57.2% 57.6% 57.6% ,598 1,616 1,630 1,647 1,660 1,671 1,681 1,687 1,693 1,699 1,705 1,745 1,765 1,774 1, ,990 7,209 7,435 7,633 7,950 8,316 8,709 9,366 9,960 10,380 10,757 12,481 13,082 13,138 14, ,875 9,958 10,214 10,510 10,886 11,283 11,598 11,969 12,318 12,841 13,448 18,695 21,765 22,668 23, ,429 21,606 21,569 21,320 21,171 21,185 21,431 22,029 22,766 23,630 24,520 38,536 45,446 47,911 48, ,682 31,396 31,923 32,498 33,087 33,297 33,586 33,572 33,387 33,291 33,429 47,485 67,580 79,467 83, ,883 40,459 42,722 45,109 47,306 49,066 50,315 51,321 52,539 53,751 54,307 66, , , , ,758 66,111 69,311 72,999 75,843 80,033 85,199 90,108 94,693 99, , , , , ,328 TOTAL P 171, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,028 % of Pop'n 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 7

13 The number of people in Queensland with dementia passed the 30,000 mark in 2001 and is estimated to pass the 40,000 mark in In 2005, the first of the baby boomers turned 60, with enormous impacts for the growth in the number of people with dementia thereafter. By mid-century, the number of people in Queensland with dementia is projected to increase to 171,000, a more than fivefold increase from (from 29,248 in 2000). The share of Australians with dementia who live in Queensland will increase from 17.1% to 23.4%. A similar trend is projected to occur in Western Australia and Northern Territory, while the share of people with dementia will drop in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. By 2050, Queensland will have nearly as many people with dementia as Victoria. The share of people with dementia in the total population is expected to be highest in Tasmania, South Australia and Victoria and lowest in Queensland and the ACT. There will be as many people with dementia in Queensland in 2050 as there were in the whole of Australia in Further comparison with other States and Territories is provided in Table 2-6, Figure 2-5, Figure 2-6. Access Economics (2005a) provides greater detail for trends across the other Australian States and Territories and for the nation as a whole. TABLE 2-6: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE ( 000) BY STATE/TERRITORY, NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT AUST * Growth rank* Share % 25.9% 17.1% 9.4% 8.5% 2.7% 0.3% 1.0% 100.0% Share % 24.1% 23.4% 6.9% 10.8% 2.0% 0.4% 1.3% 100.0% %pop'n % 0.94% 0.82% 1.07% 0.77% 0.97% 0.23% 0.56% 0.89% %pop'n % 2.84% 2.68% 3.42% 2.76% 3.67% 0.88% 2.45% 2.77% * is the prevalence in 2050 divided by the prevalence in 2000 (ie the factor of growth over the period). The growth rank ranks States/Territories according to the factor of growth from fastest (1) to slowest (8). 8

14 FIGURE 2-5: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE ( 000) BY STATE/TERRITORY, 2000 AND '000 Australians NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT FIGURE 2-6: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE BY STATE/TERRITORY, '000 Australians NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS, NT & ACT

15 2.4 PREVALENCE ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS FOR THE QUEENSLAND HEALTH SERVICE DISTRICTS For administrative purposes, Queensland Health divides Queensland into three health service areas (Northern, Central and Southern) and 21 health service districts 17 regions and four hospitals (see Table 2-7 and Figure 2-7). TABLE 2-7: QUEENSLAND HEALTH SERVICE AREAS AND HEALTH SERVICE DISTRICTS Health Service Area Northern Central Southern Health Service District Cairns & Hinterland Cape York Mackay Mount Isa Torres Strait Townsville Northside Central Queensland Central West Fraser Coast Royal Brisbane s and Women s (Hospital only) Royal Children s (Hospital only) Sunshine Coast & Cooloola Wide Bay Southside Gold Coast Mater (Hospital only) Princess Alexandra (Hospital only) South West Toowoomba & Darling Downs West Moreton South Burnett In order to estimate dementia prevalence for the 17 regions (hospitals were excluded), population projections were prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (according to assumptions agreed by Access Economics), by Statistical Local Area (SLA) and Local Government Area (LGA) for the years The report of the ABS s statistical consultancy project is provided in full as an Appendix, and includes the assumptions made in the projection of the population groups, including fertility, mortality and migration patterns. The raw data were smoothed to precisely match the bottom-up projections for Queensland to the top-down ones for each age-gender group to the year The age-gender prevalence rates applied for Australia, States and Territories, were then applied to each region, to calculate the total prevalence of people with dementia in each. 10

16 FIGURE 2-7: MAP OF QUEENSLAND HEALTH SERVICE DISTRICTS 11

17 The results are summarised in Table 2-8, while the tables on the following pages (Table 2-9 to Table 2-28) provide the projections for each of the three health service area and 17 health service districts. The key results are: The Southern Health Service Area was home to the largest number (16,630) of people with dementia in 2005 (46.4% of Queenslanders with dementia), while only 4,395 (12.3%) lived in the Northern Health Service Area. Over 50% of Queenslanders with dementia live in only three of the 17 health service districts (Southside, Northside and Gold Coast) (Figure 2-8). Southside was the health service district with the greatest number of people with dementia (7,688 in 2005, increasing to 34,413 in 2050), while Torres Strait and Cape York have the least (Figure 2-9 to Figure 2-11). Sunshine Coast & Cooloola and Gold Coast show the most rapid growth (respectively, 6.6 and 5.6 times the prevalence in 2050 compared to 2002). The share of people with dementia in the total population was highest in 2005 for Fraser Coast (1.3%), Sunshine Coast & Cooloola (1.2%) and Wide Bay (1.1%), but lowest for Torres Strait, Cape York and Mount Isa 0.4% for all (Figure 2-12). The age distribution of people with dementia in Queensland shows the rapid increase among those over 85 (Figure 2-13). 12

18 TABLE 2-8: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, QUEENSLAND REGIONS, SELECTED YEARS * Cairns & Hinterland 1,434 1,637 2,039 3,017 4,561 6,231 7, % population 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.6% 2.0% 2.3% % share of QLD total 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.6% Increase over previous period 14.2% 24.6% 47.9% 51.2% 36.6% 20.8% Cape York % population 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% % share of QLD total 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Increase over previous period 6.0% 2.1% 5.4% 9.6% 5.2% 6.4% Mackay ,116 1,664 2,516 3,423 4, % population 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 1.9% 2.1% % share of QLD total 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% Increase over previous period 12.4% 23.3% 49.1% 51.2% 36.0% 20.5% Mount Isa % population 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 1.3% 1.5% % share of QLD total 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Increase over previous period 11.8% 24.6% 50.7% 49.5% 34.1% 19.6% Torres Strait % population 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% % share of QLD total 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Increase over previous period 10.5% 11.2% 32.2% 52.1% 36.0% 20.7% Townsville 1,494 1,648 1,965 2,795 4,204 5,774 6, % population 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 1.1% 1.4% 1.8% 2.1% % share of QLD total 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% Increase over previous period 10.4% 19.2% 42.3% 50.4% 37.4% 21.2% Northside 6,625 7,274 8,723 12,323 18,693 25,956 31, % population 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.7% 2.2% 2.5% % share of QLD total 20.7% 20.3% 19.9% 19.3% 19.3% 19.4% 19.5% Increase over previous period 9.8% 19.9% 41.3% 51.7% 38.9% 21.9% Central QLD 1,338 1,476 1,767 2,513 3,776 5,175 6, % population 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% 2.1% 2.4% % share of QLD total 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% Increase over previous period 10.3% 19.7% 42.2% 50.3% 37.1% 21.0% Central West % population 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.6% 2.0% 2.3% % share of QLD total 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Increase over previous period 7.6% 11.5% 16.2% 47.5% 38.9% 22.0% Fraser Coast 971 1,101 1,365 2,053 3,122 4,270 5, % population 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.9% 2.5% 3.1% 3.5% % share of QLD total 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% Increase over previous period 13.4% 23.9% 50.5% 52.1% 36.8% 20.7% Sunshine Coast & Cooloola 3,142 3,749 4,943 7,946 12,267 16,964 20, % population 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.7% 2.3% 2.9% 3.3% % share of QLD total 9.8% 10.5% 11.3% 12.5% 12.7% 12.7% 12.7% Increase over previous period 19.3% 31.8% 60.8% 54.4% 38.3% 21.6% Wide Bay 1,033 1,122 1,338 1,906 2,869 3,932 4, % population 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.7% 2.2% 2.8% 3.2% % share of QLD total 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% Increase over previous period 8.6% 19.3% 42.4% 50.6% 37.1% 20.9% Southside 6,875 7,688 9,350 13,435 20,381 28,250 34, % population 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.6% 2.0% 2.3% % share of QLD total 21.5% 21.4% 21.4% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.2% Increase over previous period 11.8% 21.6% 43.7% 51.7% 38.6% 21.8% Gold Coast 4,018 4,664 5,848 8,758 13,394 18,573 22, % population 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% % share of QLD total 12.6% 13.0% 13.4% 13.7% 13.8% 13.9% 13.9% Increase over previous period 16.1% 25.4% 49.7% 52.9% 38.7% 21.8% South West % population 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 1.4% 1.8% 2.0% % share of QLD total 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Increase over previous period 4.6% 11.7% 25.0% 45.3% 36.5% 20.7% Toowoomba & Darling Downs 2,233 2,388 2,737 3,700 5,557 7,669 9, % population 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 1.8% 2.3% 2.6% % share of QLD total 7.0% 6.7% 6.3% 5.8% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% Increase over previous period 7.0% 14.6% 35.2% 50.2% 38.0% 21.4% West Moreton South Burnett 1,560 1,687 1,984 2,812 4,223 5,762 6, % population 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.6% 2.0% 2.2% % share of QLD total 4.9% 4.7% 4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% Increase over previous period 8.2% 17.6% 41.7% 50.2% 36.5% 20.7% Total Northern 3,916 4,395 5,373 7,861 11,858 16,202 19, % population 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% % share of QLD total 12.2% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.1% 12.1% Increase over previous period 12.2% 22.3% 46.3% 50.8% 36.6% 20.8% Total Central 13,215 14,836 18,263 26,887 40,945 56,600 68, % population 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.4% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% % share of QLD total 41.3% 41.4% 41.7% 42.2% 42.3% 42.4% 42.4% Increase over previous period 12.3% 23.1% 47.2% 52.3% 38.2% 21.6% Total Southern 14,880 16,630 20,148 28,989 43,968 60,818 73, % population 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.3% 1.7% 2.2% 2.5% % share of QLD total 46.5% 46.4% 46.0% 45.5% 45.4% 45.5% 45.6% Increase over previous period 11.8% 21.2% 43.9% 51.7% 38.3% 21.7% Total Queensland 32,010 35,861 43,783 63,737 96, , , % population 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.3% 1.7% 2.2% 2.5% % share of QLD total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Increase over previous period 12.0% 22.1% 45.6% 51.8% 38.1% 21.5% * is the prevalence in 2050 divided by the prevalence in 2002 (ie the factor of growth over the period). 13

19 FIGURE 2-8: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, % SHARE OF QUEENSLAND TOTAL Cairns & Hinterland 4% Townsville 5% West Moreton South Burnett 5% Central QLD 4% Toowoomba & Darling Downs 7% Wide Bay 3% 7 other HSDs 7% Southside 21% Northside 21% Cairns & Hinterland 4% Townsville 5% West Moreton South Burnett 5% Toowoomba & Darling Downs 7% Central QLD 4% Wide Bay 3% 7 other HSDs 6% Southside 20% Northside 19% Sunshine Coast & Cooloola 10% Gold Coast 13% Sunshine Coast & Cooloola 13% Gold Coast 14% FIGURE 2-9: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, QUEENSLAND NORTHERN REGIONS, SELECTED YEARS 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Northern HSA Cairns & Hinterland Townsville Mackay Mount Isa Cape York Torres Strait 5,

20 FIGURE 2-10: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, QUEENSLAND CENTRAL REGIONS, SELECTED YEARS 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Central HSA Northside Sunshine Coast & Cooloola Central QLD Fraser Coast Wide Bay Central West 30,000 20,000 10, FIGURE 2-11: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, QUEENSLAND SOUTHERN REGIONS, SELECTED YEARS 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Southern HSA Southside Gold Coast Toowoomba & Darling Downs West Moreton South Burnett South West 30,000 20,000 10,

21 FIGURE 2-12: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE (% POPULATION), QUEENSLAND REGIONS, % 3.5% % 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Fraser Coast Sunshine Coast+ Wide Bay Gold Coast Toowoomba+ Northside Central QLD Southside Central West Cairns+ West Moreton+ Mackay Townsville South West Mount Isa Cape York Torres Strait FIGURE 2-13: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, QUEENSLAND, BY AGE GROUP, ,000 25,000 20, ,000 10,000 5,

22 TABLE 2-9: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, NORTHERN HEALTH SERVICE AREA, NORTHERN ,069 1, ,295 1,609 1, ,007 1,040 1,096 1,158 1,796 2,926 3,900 TOTAL M 1,666 1,740 1,805 1,878 1,970 2,067 2,161 2,249 2,346 2,451 2,558 2,661 2,767 2,877 2,998 3,130 3,254 3,389 3,531 3,684 3,852 5,322 7,099 8,536 % of M Pop'n 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.6% 1.8% ,006 1,244 1, ,582 2,003 2, ,049 1,117 1,179 1,240 1,294 1,353 1,410 1,459 1,521 1,581 1,637 1,700 1,738 1,778 1,813 1,860 1,921 1,988 2,832 4,635 6,142 TOTAL F 2,250 2,344 2,423 2,517 2,623 2,719 2,822 2,921 3,028 3,140 3,250 3,367 3,487 3,614 3,749 3,883 4,021 4,169 4,330 4,503 4,688 6,536 9,103 11,042 % of F Pop'n 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 2.1% 2.4% ,032 1,077 1,120 1,131 1,329 1,475 1, ,028 1,080 1,126 1,193 1,264 1,333 1,443 1,871 2,312 2, ,021 1,056 1,081 1,115 1,147 1,179 1,210 1,229 1,241 1,253 1,278 1,321 1,387 1,459 1,543 1,631 1,707 1,793 2,877 3,612 4, ,357 1,422 1,468 1,543 1,650 1,750 1,849 1,935 2,028 2,132 2,226 2,329 2,428 2,520 2,620 2,690 2,754 2,820 2,900 3,018 3,146 4,628 7,561 10,042 TOTAL P 3,916 4,084 4,228 4,395 4,593 4,786 4,983 5,170 5,373 5,591 5,809 6,028 6,254 6,491 6,747 7,014 7,275 7,559 7,861 8,186 8,541 11,858 16,202 19,578 % of Pop'n 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 17

23 TABLE 2-10: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, CENTRAL HEALTH SERVICE AREA, CENTRAL ,124 1,231 1, ,000 1,047 1,100 1,149 1,213 1,286 1,360 1,470 1,571 1,646 1,704 1,762 1,777 2,065 2,296 2, ,018 1,053 1,082 1,108 1,122 1,139 1,149 1,167 1,203 1,263 1,328 1,409 1,498 1,571 1,654 1,729 1,828 1,944 2,058 2,229 2,828 3,495 3, ,184 1,264 1,356 1,421 1,495 1,559 1,616 1,684 1,733 1,783 1,812 1,849 1,872 1,908 1,981 2,084 2,204 2,347 2,498 2,628 2,774 4,418 5,489 6, ,428 1,504 1,564 1,680 1,818 1,958 2,103 2,242 2,391 2,559 2,716 2,862 3,017 3,160 3,316 3,446 3,569 3,690 3,821 4,007 4,215 6,535 10,646 14,192 TOTAL M 5,230 5,459 5,699 5,970 6,275 6,593 6,912 7,237 7,565 7,922 8,279 8,634 9,000 9,381 9,798 10,241 10,685 11,154 11,643 12,167 12,742 17,802 24,036 29,082 % of M Pop'n 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% 2.1% 2.4% , ,021 1,068 1,119 1,184 1,256 1,333 1,448 1,550 1,633 1,710 1,780 1,804 2,145 2,374 2, ,284 1,325 1,352 1,367 1,385 1,392 1,387 1,394 1,421 1,450 1,514 1,577 1,659 1,745 1,825 1,912 2,005 2,123 2,253 2,391 2,598 3,433 4,244 4, ,885 1,964 2,042 2,112 2,167 2,208 2,283 2,332 2,362 2,400 2,415 2,416 2,434 2,481 2,542 2,662 2,778 2,928 3,082 3,227 3,384 5,462 6,916 7, ,460 3,601 3,748 3,935 4,197 4,434 4,644 4,862 5,096 5,350 5,566 5,804 6,009 6,194 6,411 6,551 6,699 6,847 7,024 7,251 7,519 10,712 17,531 23,230 TOTAL F 7,985 8,266 8,549 8,867 9,246 9,605 9,959 10,318 10,698 11,107 11,497 11,896 12,304 12,730 13,201 13,678 14,160 14,682 15,244 15,851 16,533 23,142 32,565 39,727 % of F Pop'n 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 2.7% 3.1% ,009 1,038 1,066 1,095 1,126 1,179 1,243 1, ,001 1,056 1,120 1,185 1,283 1,373 1,442 1,500 1,556 1,571 1,593 1,617 1,646 1,678 1,708 2,019 2,211 2, ,557 1,564 1,570 1,592 1,627 1,698 1,775 1,873 1,977 2,068 2,169 2,268 2,397 2,543 2,693 2,918 3,122 3,279 3,414 3,542 3,580 4,210 4,671 4, ,273 2,343 2,405 2,449 2,493 2,514 2,527 2,543 2,587 2,653 2,777 2,906 3,068 3,242 3,396 3,566 3,734 3,952 4,197 4,450 4,827 6,261 7,740 8, ,069 3,228 3,398 3,534 3,661 3,767 3,899 4,016 4,095 4,183 4,227 4,265 4,306 4,389 4,523 4,746 4,983 5,275 5,581 5,855 6,158 9,880 12,405 13, ,888 5,105 5,312 5,615 6,015 6,392 6,748 7,104 7,487 7,909 8,282 8,666 9,025 9,353 9,727 9,997 10,268 10,537 10,844 11,258 11,734 17,246 28,177 37,422 TOTAL P 13,215 13,725 14,248 14,836 15,521 16,198 16,871 17,555 18,263 19,029 19,776 20,530 21,304 22,112 22,999 23,919 24,845 25,836 26,887 28,018 29,275 40,945 56,600 68,809 % of Pop'n 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 18

24 TABLE 2-11: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, SOUTHERN HEALTH SERVICE AREA, SOUTHERN , ,009 1,026 1,041 1,229 1,345 1, ,011 1,070 1,125 1,182 1,231 1,301 1,380 1,459 1,580 1,694 1,775 1,842 1,902 1,912 2,223 2,471 2, ,073 1,103 1,135 1,153 1,176 1,197 1,204 1,220 1,235 1,275 1,332 1,401 1,484 1,572 1,655 1,744 1,819 1,927 2,046 2,169 2,355 2,988 3,693 4, ,370 1,445 1,509 1,579 1,629 1,671 1,728 1,787 1,828 1,878 1,926 1,945 1,979 2,015 2,089 2,192 2,313 2,455 2,608 2,756 2,912 4,638 5,762 6, ,622 1,718 1,812 1,950 2,109 2,274 2,417 2,549 2,716 2,877 3,029 3,193 3,348 3,503 3,665 3,804 3,927 4,054 4,188 4,384 4,603 7,136 11,625 15,497 TOTAL M 5,883 6,125 6,378 6,670 6,982 7,318 7,636 7,961 8,307 8,672 9,050 9,414 9,803 10,204 10,643 11,109 11,567 12,056 12,565 13,131 13,740 19,174 25,911 31,380 % of M Pop'n 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.5% 1.9% 2.1% ,070 1, ,001 1,050 1,098 1,151 1,204 1,271 1,351 1,431 1,556 1,672 1,763 1,847 1,925 1,946 2,314 2,562 2, ,455 1,475 1,502 1,503 1,518 1,522 1,517 1,510 1,523 1,545 1,600 1,669 1,761 1,851 1,935 2,029 2,120 2,240 2,382 2,526 2,749 3,632 4,491 4, ,122 2,219 2,296 2,378 2,422 2,444 2,485 2,546 2,561 2,597 2,612 2,609 2,605 2,641 2,691 2,795 2,922 3,080 3,237 3,385 3,556 5,739 7,266 8, ,898 4,070 4,250 4,466 4,749 5,023 5,272 5,487 5,750 6,016 6,221 6,445 6,667 6,851 7,072 7,222 7,350 7,475 7,644 7,867 8,115 11,561 18,920 25,072 TOTAL F 8,997 9,307 9,619 9,960 10,346 10,722 11,087 11,452 11,841 12,259 12,640 13,034 13,453 13,882 14,356 14,844 15,329 15,848 16,425 17,044 17,735 24,794 34,907 42,609 % of F Pop'n 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% ,012 1,047 1,052 1,062 1,074 1,088 1,106 1,123 1,150 1,183 1,215 1,248 1,283 1,344 1,416 1, ,011 1,062 1,107 1,169 1,240 1,311 1,420 1,523 1,599 1,665 1,724 1,735 1,755 1,777 1,804 1,836 1,866 2,206 2,415 2, ,716 1,712 1,715 1,727 1,760 1,826 1,906 2,012 2,121 2,223 2,334 2,435 2,572 2,731 2,890 3,136 3,367 3,538 3,689 3,827 3,858 4,537 5,033 5, ,529 2,577 2,637 2,656 2,694 2,719 2,721 2,730 2,758 2,821 2,932 3,070 3,245 3,423 3,591 3,773 3,939 4,167 4,429 4,695 5,104 6,620 8,184 9, ,493 3,665 3,805 3,957 4,051 4,115 4,213 4,333 4,389 4,474 4,537 4,553 4,583 4,656 4,780 4,988 5,235 5,535 5,845 6,141 6,468 10,377 13,028 14, ,520 5,789 6,061 6,416 6,858 7,297 7,689 8,036 8,466 8,893 9,250 9,638 10,014 10,354 10,737 11,026 11,277 11,529 11,832 12,251 12,718 18,697 30,546 40,569 TOTAL P 14,880 15,432 15,996 16,630 17,329 18,040 18,724 19,413 20,148 20,931 21,690 22,449 23,256 24,086 24,999 25,953 26,896 27,904 28,989 30,175 31,475 43,968 60,818 73,990 % of Pop'n 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% 2.2% 2.5% 19

25 TABLE 2-12: DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, NORTHERN, CAIRNS & HINTERLAND, NORTHERN - CAIRNS & HINTERLAND ,138 1,517 TOTAL M ,027 1,068 1,110 1,159 1,211 1,261 1,314 1,369 1,429 1,495 2,066 2,756 3,315 % of M Pop'n 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% 1.8% 2.0% ,082 1,770 2,346 TOTAL F ,013 1,053 1,092 1,138 1,181 1,224 1,271 1,316 1,367 1,419 1,472 1,527 1,585 1,648 1,715 1,791 2,495 3,475 4,215 % of F Pop'n 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 2.2% 2.6% ,098 1,379 1, ,010 1,039 1,064 1,087 1,116 1,159 1,210 1,780 2,908 3,863 TOTAL P 1,434 1,505 1,564 1,637 1,719 1,800 1,879 1,955 2,039 2,122 2,208 2,298 2,384 2,477 2,578 2,683 2,788 2,899 3,017 3,144 3,286 4,561 6,231 7,530 % of Pop'n 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 2.0% 2.3% 20

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