Australian Government Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government

Transcription

1 Australian Government Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics National road network intercity traffic projections to 2030 Working paper 75

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3 Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics National road network intercity traffic projections to 2030 Working Paper 75 Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government Canberra, Australia

4 Commonwealth of Australia. ISSN ISBN FEB2009/INFRASTRUCTURE This publication available in PDF format from the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics website: If you require part or all of this report in a different format please contact BITRE. Recommended citation Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics 2009, National road network intercity traffic projections to 2030, Working Paper 75, BITRE, Canberra. Indemnity statement The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics has taken due care in preparing the analyses contained in this report. However, noting that data used for the analyses have been provided by third parties, the Commonwealth gives no warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, fitness for purpose, or otherwise of the information. Published by Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics GPO Box 501, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia Telephone Fax bitre@infrastructure.gov.au Internet Typeface: Optima LT Std, Gill Sans MT and Euler PS.

5 Foreword This report provides long-term passenger and freight vehicle traffic projections for intercity corridors of the National Land Transport Network (NLTN) between 2005 and The projections were derived using BITRE s long-term interregional passenger and freight transport projection models, OZPASS and FreightSim, drawing on the most recent available base year interregional passenger travel data, freight movement data and state and territory road traffic data. These projections update those presented in BTRE (2006a, Working Paper 66), Demand Projections for AusLink Non-urban Corridors: Methodology and Projections. The key differences between these and the previous projections include: incorporation of updated base year road traffic volume data (c. 2005), provided by state and territory road authorities inclusion of an alternative projection scenario based on state-sourced regional population projections use of the latest Treasury long-term real GDP growth projections updated long-term regional commodity production projections for key commodities allowance for likely future increases in heavy vehicle productivity. BITRE acknowledges the assistance of Tourism Research Australia in providing updated regional passenger travel data, and state and territory road authorities, who supplied the 2005 road traffic volume data, at small (one kilometre) section level and road freight volume information from selected Weighin-Motion sites. BITRE also thanks members of the Standing Committee on Transport s interjurisdictional Data Sharing Project steering committee, convened by BITRE, which oversaw the project. The analysis was undertaken between November 2006 and January This report was prepared by David Mitchell, Afzal Hossain and Carlo Santangelo. Phil Potterton Executive Director Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics February 2009 iii

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7 At a glance Inter-regional passenger travel between major intercity origin destination pairs is projected to grow by 2.8 per cent a year between 2005 and 2030 a doubling over 25 years. Air and car, the largest modes, are projected to grow, on average, by 3.5 and 2.4 per cent a year. Inter-regional freight movements between major intercity origin destination pairs are projected to also grow by 2.8 per cent a year, in tonnage terms again a doubling over 25 years. Road is the dominant transport mode for intercity freight, projected to grow by 3.3 per cent a year while intercity rail freight is projected to grow by 1.9 per cent a year. Outside these corridors, rail freight movements of coal and iron ore, for export, are projected to grow by 2.1 and 4.8 per cent a year, respectively. Interstate origin destination passenger travel growth is projected to vary between 2.5 and 3.5 per cent a year, across the different corridors, with the strongest growth on corridors linking Brisbane. Air travel is projected to increase as a share of all such trips. Growth in origin destination passenger travel on intrastate national transport network corridors is projected to vary from 1.2 to 3.8 per cent a year across the different corridors. Interstate origin destination freight traffic growth is projected to vary between 2.2 and 3.4 per cent a year, across most interstate national transport network corridors. Again, growth is projected to be strongest on corridors connecting Brisbane. Road is projected to increase its share of freight between centres less than 1500km apart, while rail and, to a lesser extent sea, are more significant for longer distance movements. Growth in origin destination freight movements on intrastate corridors is projected to vary from 0.9 to 2.7 per cent a year across the different corridors. The passenger travel projections imply interstate national transport network corridor origin destination car travel growth of between 0.8 and 2.3 per cent a year, and intrastate origin destination car travel growth of between 0.6 and 2.7 per cent a year across the various corridors. Taking into account an expected 2 per cent annual improvement in heavy vehicle productivity, the freight movement projections imply interstate national transport network corridor origin destination truck travel growth of up to 2.1 per cent a year, and intrastate origin destination truck travel growth of up to 1.5 per cent a year across the various corridors. v

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9 Contents Foreword At a glance Executive Summary iii v xxv 1 Introduction National transport planning and investment Geographic scope OZPASS and FreightSim models a brief overview How does this report differ from BTRE (2006a)? Structure of the report Passenger travel and freight movement projections OZPASS and FreightSim: an overview OZPASS: model structure, key assumptions and projections FreightSim: model structure, key assumptions and projections Summary Road traffic projections Traffic projections: an overview NLTN non-urban corridor traffic projections Comparison with state-sourced population projection based traffic projections Comparison with BTRE (2006a) traffic projections Cautionary notes Summary Concluding remarks OZPASS and FreightSim: modelling issues Future projections and freight data vii

10 A FreightInfo 1999 regional classification 131 B NVS/IVS regional classification 141 C Population projections 161 D GDP growth assumptions 171 E Base year road traffic data 173 F CULWAY/WIM data 185 G Bulk commodity production projections 207 H State population projection based road traffic projections 255 I OZPASS and FreightSim settings 301 J TransCAD traffic assignment settings 307 References 313 Abbreviations 321 viii

11 Figures 1.1 National Land Transport Network BITRE non-urban light vehicle traffic projection methodology BITRE non-urban heavy vehicle traffic projection methodology Projected real gross domestic product (GDP) and real per capita GDP growth Base case population growth projections, 2004 to Projected population growth by Statistical Local Area, 2004 to Comparison of population growth projections by regions, 1999 to 2020 and 2004 to Projected growth in origin destination passenger travel, NLTN interstate corridors, by transport mode, 2004 to Projected growth in origin destination passenger travel, NLTN interstate corridors, by transport mode, 2004 to Projected annual growth in origin destination freight traffic for NLTN interstate corridors by transport mode, 1999 to Projected annual growth in origin destination freight traffic for NLTN intrastate corridors by transport mode, 1999 to Interregional passenger vehicle traffic assignment, Interregional passenger vehicle traffic assignment, Interregional freight vehicle traffic assignment, Interregional freight vehicle traffic assignment, Projected traffic growth, NLTN non-urban interstate corridors, 2005 to Projected traffic growth, NLTN non-urban intrastate corridors, 2005 to Projected growth in light vehicle traffic, 2005 to Projected growth in heavy vehicle traffic, 2005 to ix

12 3.9 Sydney Melbourne corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Sydney Brisbane corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Sydney Brisbane (coastal) corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Sydney Adelaide corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Canberra connectors: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Melbourne Brisbane corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Melbourne Adelaide corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Brisbane Darwin corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Adelaide Perth corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Adelaide Darwin corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Perth Darwin corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Sydney Wollongong corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Sydney Dubbo corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Melbourne Sale corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Melbourne Geelong corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Melbourne Mildura corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Brisbane Cairns corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Townsville Mt Isa corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Perth Bunbury corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and x

13 3.28 Perth Pt Hedland corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Hobart Burnie Devonport corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and Launceston Bell Bay corridor: base year traffic levels and projected traffic growth between 2005 and A.1 FreightInfo 1999 regions, New South Wales A.2 FreightInfo 1999 regions, Victoria A.3 FreightInfo 1999 regions, Queensland A.4 FreightInfo 1999 regions, South Australia A.5 FreightInfo 1999 regions, Western Australia A.6 FreightInfo 1999 regions, Tasmania A.7 FreightInfo 1999 regions, Northern Territory B.1 BITRE-defined tourism regions, New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory, B.2 BITRE-defined tourism regions, Victoria, B.3 BITRE-defined tourism regions, Queensland, B.4 BITRE-defined tourism regions, Queensland (enlargement), B.5 BITRE-defined tourism regions, South Australia, B.6 BITRE-defined tourism regions, South Australia (enlargement), B.7 BITRE-defined tourism regions, Western Australia, B.8 BITRE-defined tourism regions, Western Australia (enlargement), B.9 BITRE-defined tourism regions, Tasmania, B.10 BITRE-defined tourism regions, Northern Territory, C.1 ABS (2003) and ABS (2006) projected population growth by state and territory, 2004 to C.2 ABS (2006) and state-sourced projected population growth by state and territory, 2004 to C.3 Comparison: population projection assumptions BTRE (2006a), 1999 to 2020, and updated projection assumptions, 2004 to E.1 NLTN roads and GA (2004) road layers E.2 NLTN average daily total traffic E.3 NLTN average daily heavy vehicle traffic xi

14 F.1 Selected CULWAY/WIM site locations New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia F.2 Selected CULWAY/WIM site locations Northern Territory F.3 AUSLIG (1992) TOPO 10M vector topographic road layer G.1 Long-term agricultural commodity production projections G.2 Australian uranium ore production (U 3 O 8 ), to G.3 Australian copper production, 1991 to G.4 Australian zinc production, 1991 to G.5 Australian lead production, 1991 to G.6 Australian silver production, 1991 to G.7 Australian manganese ore production, 1991 to G.8 Australian tin production, 1991 to G.9 Australian nickel production, 1991 to G.10 Australian bauxite production, 1991 to G.11 Australian ilmenite, rutile and zircon production, 1991 to G.12 Actual and predicted cement production in Australia, to H.1 Projected traffic growth, NLTN non-urban interstate corridors, 2005 to H.2 Projected traffic growth, NLTN non-urban intrastate corridors, 2005 to J.1 GA (2004) TOPO 2.5M vector topographic road layer xii

15 Tables 1.1 National Land Transport Network non-urban corridors Differences between BTRE (2006a) projections and updated projections Comparison: BTRE (2006a) commodity production projections and updated production projections Mode share competitiveness indices for domestic resident passenger trips Mode share competitiveness indices for international visitor passenger trips ABS (2006)-based average annual projected population growth, by state/territory and region, 2004 to State-sourced average annual projected population growth, by state/territory and region, 2004 to Comparison of population growth projections by state/territory, 1999 to 2020 and 2004 to Interregional long-distance passenger travel projections by transport mode, 2004 to 2030, ABS (2006)-based population projections Actual and projected origin destination passenger journeys, NLTN interstate corridors by transport mode, 2004 and Actual and projected origin destination passenger journeys, NLTN intrastate corridors by transport mode, 2004 and Projected growth in rural local light vehicle travel, 2005 to Comparison of ABS (2006) and state-sourced population projection based projected long-distance passenger trip growth, 2005 to Comparison of projected long-distance passenger travel growth with BTRE (2006a) projections FreightSim commodity production forecasts Mode share competitiveness indexes for domestic bulk freight transport Mode share competitiveness indexes for domestic non-bulk freight 34 xiii

16 2.15 Interregional freight movement projections, by transport mode, 1999 to 2030, ABS (2006)-based population projections Actual and projected total road and rail freight task by commodity, 1999 and 2030, ABS (2006)-based population projections Actual and projected interregional road and rail freight movements by commodity, 1999 and 2030, ABS (2006)-based population projections Actual and projected origin destination freight movements by transport mode, NLTN interstate corridors, 1999 and Actual and projected origin destination freight movements by transport mode, NLTN intrastate corridors, 1999 and Actual and projected origin destination non-bulk freight movements by transport mode, NLTN interstate corridors, 1999 and Actual and projected origin destination non-bulk freight movements by transport mode, NLTN intrastate corridors, 1999 and Comparison of ABS (2006) and state-sourced population projection based projected interregional freight growth, 1999 to BTRE (2006b) projected growth in intercapital origin destination (OD) freight, 2001 to FreightSim projected growth in intercapital OD freight, 1999 to Estimated average passenger car occupancy, intercapital overnight trips by capital city OD pairs, Estimated average passenger car occupancy, non intercapital overnight trips by capital city OD pairs, Projected growth in vehicle traffic, NLTN non-urban corridors, by state and territory, 2005 and Projected growth in vehicle traffic, NLTN non-urban interstate corridors, 2005 and Projected growth in vehicle traffic, NLTN non-urban intrastate corridors, 2005 and Sydney Melbourne corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Sydney Brisbane corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Sydney Brisbane (coastal) corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and xiv

17 3.9 Sydney Adelaide corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Canberra connectors: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Melbourne Brisbane corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Melbourne Adelaide corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Brisbane Darwin corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Adelaide Perth corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Adelaide Darwin corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Perth Darwin corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Sydney Wollongong corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Sydney Dubbo corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Melbourne Sale corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Melbourne Geelong corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Melbourne Mildura corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Brisbane Cairns corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Townsville Mt Isa corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Perth Bunbury corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Perth Pt Hedland corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Hobart Burnie Devonport corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and Launceston Bell Bay corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and xv

18 3.28 Comparison of projected traffic growth, ABS (2006)-based and statebased population projections, by NLTN non-urban corridor Comparison of projected traffic growth with BTRE (2006a) projections, by state and territory Comparison of projected traffic growth with BTRE (2006a) projections, by NLTN non-urban corridor A.1 FreightInfo 1999 regions A.1 FreightInfo 1999 regions (continued) B.1 BITRE-defined tourism regions, B.1 BITRE-defined tourism regions, 2004 (continued) B.1 BITRE-defined tourism regions, 2004 (continued) B.1 BITRE-defined tourism regions, 2004 (continued) B.1 BITRE-defined tourism regions, 2004 (continued) B.1 BITRE-defined tourism regions, 2004 (continued) B.1 BITRE-defined tourism regions, 2004 (continued) B.1 BITRE-defined tourism regions, 2004 (continued) C.1 ABS (2003) and ABS (2006) projected population, by state and territory, 2004 to C.1 ABS (2003) and ABS (2006) projected population, by state and territory, 2004 to 2030 (continued) C.2 ABS (2006)-based and state-sourced population projections, by state and territory, 2004 to C.3 ABS (2003) and ABS (2006) projected population growth by state and territory, 2004 to C.4 ABS (2006) and state-sourced projected population growth by state and territory, 2004 to C.5 Comparison: population projection assumptions BTRE (2006a), 1999 to 2020, and updated projection assumptions, 2004 to D.1 Projected GDP and population growth, to E.1 Summary: NLTN small section road data set E.2 Average traffic levels by NLTN corridor, E.3 Average traffic levels by NLTN corridor and link, E.3 Average traffic levels by NLTN corridor and link, 2005 (continued). 178 E.3 Average traffic levels by NLTN corridor and link, 2005 (continued). 179 xvi

19 E.3 Average traffic levels by NLTN corridor and link, 2005 (continued). 180 E.4 Comparison: base year traffic volumes at state/territory borders, interstate NLTN corridors F.1 Selected CULWAY/weigh-in-motion (WIM) sites F.2 CULWAY classified vehicle report Truro East (median lane) Sturt Highway, January June F.3 Estimated average net load per vehicle, selected Victorian CULWAY- /WIM sites F.4 Comparison of estimated average tare weight, by Austroads vehicle class F.5 Comparative 2005 road freight task estimates at selected CULWAY- /WIM sites F.6 Comparison CULWAY/WIM and small section traffic counts, F.7 Historical freight growth, selected CULWAY/WIM sites F.8 Historical heavy vehicle traffic growth, selected CULWAY/WIM sites 206 G.1 Comparison: agricultural commodity production estimates G.2 Comparison: alternative agricultural commodity production scenarios G.3 Comparison: CIE and CSIRO agricultural commodity projections G.4 Regional agricultural commodity production projections, by broad commodity group and state/territory, to G.5 Coal production: actual and projected G.6 Projected regional coal production growth, 1999 to G.7 Projected regional iron ore production growth, 1999 to G.8 Projected uranium production by state and territory, to G.9 Planned and announced copper mining capacity expansion projects 224 G.10 Projected copper production by state and territory, to G.11 Planned and announced zinc mining capacity expansion projects. 226 G.12 Projected zinc production by state and territory, to G.13 Planned and announced lead mining capacity expansion projects. 228 G.14 Projected lead production by state and territory, to G.15 Planned and announced silver mining capacity expansion projects 230 G.16 Projected silver production by state and territory, to xvii

20 G.17 Projected manganese ore production by mine, to G.18 Projected tin production by state and territory, to G.19 Planned and announced nickel mining capacity expansion projects 235 G.20 Projected nickel production by state and territory, to G.21 Planned and announced bauxite mining capacity expansion projects 238 G.22 Projected bauxite production by state and territory, to G.23 Planned and announced mineral sands production capacity expansion projects G.24 Projected mineral sands (heavy mineral concentrate) production by state and territory, to G.25 Projected growth in crude oil, condensate and LPG production, by freight region, 1999 to G.26 Australian natural gas producing regions G.27 Projected growth in natural gas output, by freight region, 1999 to G.28 Cement production estimation results G.29 Projected growth in cement and concrete products output, by freight region, 1999 to G.30 Comparison: ABARE (2001) and FreightInfo timber production estimates G.31 Projected timber and timber product production by state and territory, to G.32 Commodity production projections, by commodity group, 1999 to H.1 Projected growth in vehicle traffic, NLTN non-urban corridors, by state/territory, 2005 and H.2 Projected growth in vehicle traffic, NLTN non-urban interstate corridors, 2005 and H.3 Projected growth in vehicle traffic, NLTN non-urban intrastate corridors, 2005 and H.4 Sydney Melbourne corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.5 Sydney Brisbane (inland) corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.6 Sydney Brisbane (coastal) corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and xviii

21 H.7 Sydney Adelaide corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.8 Canberra connectors: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.9 Melbourne Brisbane corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.10 Melbourne Adelaide corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.11 Brisbane Darwin corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.12 Adelaide Perth corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.13 Adelaide Darwin corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.14 Perth Darwin corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.15 Sydney Wollongong corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.16 Sydney Dubbo corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.17 Melbourne Sale corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.18 Melbourne Geelong corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.19 Melbourne Mildura corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.20 Brisbane Cairns corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.21 Townsville Mount Isa corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.22 Perth Bunbury corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.23 Perth Port Hedland corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.24 Hobart Burnie Devonport corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and H.25 Launceston Bell Bay corridor: base year and projected traffic levels, 2005 and xix

22 H.26 Projected growth in heavy vehicle traffic assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity, NLTN non-urban corridors, by state/territory, 2005 and H.27 Projected growth in heavy vehicle traffic assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity, NLTN non-urban interstate corridors, 2005 and H.28 Projected growth in heavy vehicle traffic assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity, NLTN non-urban intrastate corridors, 2005 and H.29 Sydney Melbourne corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.30 Sydney Brisbane (inland) corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.31 Sydney Brisbane (coastal) corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.32 Sydney Adelaide corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.33 Canberra connectors: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity 291 H.34 Melbourne Brisbane corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.35 Melbourne Adelaide corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.36 Brisbane Darwin corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.37 Adelaide Perth corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.38 Adelaide Darwin corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.39 Perth Darwin corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity 294 xx

23 H.40 Sydney Wollongong corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.41 Sydney Dubbo corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.42 Melbourne Sale corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.43 Melbourne Geelong corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.44 Melbourne Mildura corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.45 Brisbane Cairns corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.46 Townsville Mount Isa corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.47 Perth Bunbury corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.48 Perth Port Hedland corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.49 Hobart Burnie corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity H.50 Launceston Bell Bay corridor: base year 2005 and projected 2030 heavy vehicle traffic levels, assuming no change in heavy vehicle productivity I.1 OZPASS model settings I.2 FreightSim model settings J.1 Assumed light vehicle average travel speed and implied length weight by road class and road formation J.2 Assumed heavy vehicle average travel speed and implied distance weighting, by road class and road formation type xxi

24 J.3 TransCAD traffic assignment settings J.4 Traffic assignment results: ABS (2006)-based population projections 311 J.5 Traffic assignment results: state-based population projections xxii

25 Boxes C.1 ABS population projections assumptions xxiii

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27 Executive Summary This report provides updated long-term passenger and freight traffic projections for the National Land Transport Network (NLTN) non-urban corridors between 2005 and The projections have been derived using the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) OZPASS and FreightSim models, which were specifically designed to project non-urban passenger travel and freight movements in Australia. While the projections presented here only cover the NLTN non-urban corridors, the modelling used to generate the projections covers all long-distance passenger and freight movements across Australia. The projections presented in this report update those presented in BTRE (2006a), Demand Projections for AusLink Non-urban Corridors: Methodology and Projections (Working Paper 66), using updated road traffic data supplied by state and territory road authorities, updated interregional passenger movement data from Tourism Research Australia s (TRA) National Visitor Survey (NVS) and International Visitor Survey (IVS), and the most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and state planning agency regional population projections. OZPASS and FreightSim models: an overview OZPASS The OZPASS model is designed to project future long-distance OD passenger travel within Australia. The model uses travel data from TRA s NVS and IVS collections for the base year level and pattern of passenger travel. The NVS includes overnight and day trips for business, leisure and personal purposes to a destination at least 25 kilometres from home. The IVS provides estimates of all journeys within Australia by international visitors. Together, the NVS and IVS provide a measure of all long-distance passenger trips in Australia, not part of a regular commute, by all major transport modes private car, coach, rail, air and ferry and all trip purposes. For these projections, BITRE used pooled average passenger trip data from the 2002, 2003 and 2004 NVS and IVS. For the purposes of projecting passenger vehicle traffic on NLTN roads, this data was treated as representative of passenger travel in In OZPASS, future interregional passenger travel is projected using a gravitymodel functional form that relates growth in interregional passenger travel to xxv

28 BITRE Working Paper 75 growth in regional populations, per capita GDP and average travel costs. In the general gravity model formulation, for any OD pair, projected travel growth is identical in each direction. In reality, growth in travel between any OD pair is likely to vary. In OZPASS, for each OD pair, growth in passenger travel is differentiated by direction according to the relative population growth in the two regions (refer to Appendix I for details). OZPASS also includes a separate algorithm for projecting local light vehicle travel on local rural roads that is, that component of traffic on rural roads generated by residents of the local region. Rural light vehicle travel is projected using growth in regional populations, projected trend growth in per capita light vehicle ownership and average vehicle utilisation. FreightSim FreightSim is a model for projecting interregional OD freight movements across six transport modes: road, rail, sea, air, pipeline and conveyer. The model was developed jointly by Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) and FDF Pty Ltd under the auspices of Austroads. FreightSim comprises 132 separate regions 123 Statistical Subdivisions, eight capital city Statistical Divisions (ABS 1996) and one region covering the rest of the world and 16 commodity classes 15 bulk commodity groups and one non-bulk group. Austroads (2003) provides a brief overview of FreightSim. Projected future interregional transport flows are derived from projected growth in domestic regional production, regional consumption and international imports. For the freight traffic projections presented in this report, BITRE had planned to use FDF Pty Ltd s FreightInfo national database of Australian interregional freight movements as the measure of base year freight flows. However, the FreightInfo data could not be satisfactorily reconciled with other transport data. In lieu of that data, the freight task projections in this report are based on FDF Pty Ltd s FreightInfo national database of Australian freight movements, augmented by data from the ABS Freight Movements Survey (ABS 2002) and BITRE s Australian Sea Freight statistics (BTE 2000). For the NLTN corridor freight vehicle traffic projections, the base year freight task was projected forward to 2005, and the 2005 projections used as the basis for matching to on-road heavy vehicle traffic data. BITRE also attempted to corroborate the projected 2005 data against other independent evidence on freight movements, especially road freight movements. In particular, BITRE compared the projected road freight data against state/territory supplied CULWAY/WIM site data (see Appendix F). xxvi

29 NLTN road traffic data Executive Summary As part of the National Transport Data Framework (NTDF) data sharing project, initiated by the Australian Transport Council (ATC) and Standing Committee on Transport (SCOT), state and territory road transport agencies provided BITRE with small section (generally one kilometre) road traffic data across the NLTN. The small section traffic data forms the base year traffic levels from which future road traffic flows are projected using OZPASS and FreightSim. The combined small section road traffic data set contains separate records for over kilometres of the NLTN (including the urban corridors), as well as information for the Brand and North West Coastal Highways in Western Australia, which are not part of the NLTN. Divided roads comprise approximately 10 per cent, by length, of the combined data set. The data set includes separate traffic volume estimates for light vehicles and commercial vehicles for various years between 2003 and For the purposes of the projections, BITRE treated all traffic volume estimates as year 2005 data (see Appendix E for details of the base year road traffic data). Geographic scope and market coverage The geographic scope and coverage of the NVS, IVS and FreightInfo data sets limit the applicability of OZPASS and FreightSim to projecting long-distance passenger movements. In the case of FreightSim, the size of the FreightInfo regions (illustrated in Appendix A) preclude the use of the model for modelling urban or detailed local area freight movements. In the case of passenger travel, although the NVS data, and also the IVS data, includes quite detailed geographical trip information to the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level the NVS only records details of trips that are not part of a regular commute. Hence, commuter trips to work, school, shopping trips, etc. are not enumerated in OZPASS. Accordingly, the models are not well-suited to providing projections of passenger travel and freight movements in urban areas and, consequently, this report does not include projections for the urban corridors included in the NLTN. For urban traffic growth, BITRE has separately projected aggregate growth in the urban passenger (BTRE 2003b,BTRE 2007c) and freight (BTRE 2006a) transport tasks for each state and territory capital city, which may be used to complement the non-urban corridor projections presented here. Similarly, for those non-urban corridor sections that lie within or on the fringe of urban areas, the OZPASS and FreightSim-based long-distance travel projections may need to be augmented by local traffic modelling results to best predict future total traffic volumes. On the other hand, the long-distance traffic growth projections presented in this report provide future estimates of traffic entering or exiting urban areas, an essential input into urban traffic models. xxvii

30 BITRE Working Paper 75 Travel projections Chapters 2 and 3 of this report present the updated projections of future nonurban passenger travel and freight movements, and the corresponding levels of light and heavy vehicle traffic, to 2030, for the NLTN non-urban corridors. Among the key inputs influencing the travel projections are projected future population growth, future GDP growth, foreign visitor arrivals and future regional commodity production. At the request of states and territories, this report presents two sets of longterm traffic projections for the NLTN non-urban corridors: one based on the latest ABS regional population projections (outlined in Chapter 3) and the other based on the latest available state planning agency regional population projections (see Appendix H). The differences between the two population projection sets and the resulting traffic projections are outlined below. Key input assumptions The key input assumptions underlying the passenger and freight projections produced by OZPASS and FreightSim are population growth, growth in per capita GDP and trends in passenger and freight transport costs. Growth in domestic travel by international visitors is influenced purely by projected total future short-term international visitor arrivals. Projected population growth The default population projections are based on the ABS (2006) Series B (Medium) state and territory population projections for the period 2004 to 2030, disaggregated to SLA-level using the ABS (2004a) SLA-level population projections, extended to The ABS (2006) Series B population projections imply average population growth of 0.94 per cent per annum between 2004 and Population growth is projected to be highest in the major mainland state capital cities and coastal areas, and is projected to be slower, or even decline, in many inland regional areas. New South Wales, Victorian, Queensland, South Australian and Western Australian planning authorities periodically publish regional population projections for their jurisdiction. The latest available state planning agency population projections were combined into a single set of state-sourced population projections. Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory do not produce separate state/territory population projections. For those jurisdictions, the ABS (2006) population projections were used in the state-sourced population projection set. In comparison to the ABS (2006) population projections, the state planning agency population projections imply slightly stronger population growth in New South Wales and Victoria and significantly stronger population growth in Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia. The combined state-based projections xxviii

31 Executive Summary imply average population growth of 1.08 per cent per annum between 2004 and Projected GDP growth Projected future GDP growth is based on unpublished Australian Treasury nominal long-term GDP growth projections, supplied to Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics (BTRE) in 2005, and input into the Intergenerational Report 2007 (Treasury 2007a). BITRE assumed, in accord with the assumption in Treasury (2007a) that consumer prices will increase by 2.5 per cent per annum on average, the mid-point of the Reserve Bank of Australia s target inflation band. The projections imply real GDP growth will decline from around 4 per cent per annum in to around 2.2 per cent per annum in Over the 10 years to , projected real GDP growth will average 3.2 per cent per annum, and between and it will average 2.3 per cent per annum. The majority of projected GDP growth is attributable to increasing labour productivity. Aging of the population is projected to slow the rate of growth real GDP per person through its impact on the share of the population of working age and the rate of labour force participation (Treasury 2007a). Over the entire 25 year period, to , real GDP growth is projected to average 2.67 per cent per annum. Transport costs Real passenger travel costs are projected to remain more or less constant over the projection period. Real freight transport costs are projected to decline by 0.5 per cent per annum over the projection period. International visitors Short-term international visitor arrivals are assumed to grow in line with the Tourism Forecasting Committee projections from 2005 to 2015 (TRA 2006), which projects average annual growth of 5.1 per cent per annum. From 2015 onwards, BITRE has assumed short-term international visitor arrivals will grow, but at a declining rate, by 5 per cent per annum in 2015 falling to 4 per cent per annum in These assumptions imply an average rate of growth in short-term international visitor arrivals of approximately 4.9 per cent per annum between 2005 and Commodity production projections Considerable efforts were made to incorporate into these projections the latest available information on long-term projected future commodity production for most of the major bulk commodity groups. Among the major commodity groups for which BITRE revised and updated projected future production were: xxix