Adapting to Climate Change STRENGTHENING THE CLIMATE RESILIENCE OF THE WATER SECTOR INFRASTRUCTURE IN KHULNA, BANGLADESH

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1

2 Adapting to Climate Change STRENGTHENING THE CLIMATE RESILIENCE OF THE WATER SECTOR INFRASTRUCTURE IN KHULNA, BANGLADESH

3

4 Contents

5 Tables and Figures

6 Acknowledgments

7 Abbreviations Weights and Measurements

8 Introduction Background

9 Overview of Khulna

10

11 Figure 2 Salinity Concentration in Rivers in and around Khulna

12 Study Approach and Methodology Figure 3 Flow Diagram of the Study

13 Climate Change Projection Climate Table 1 Summary Features of Climate Projections for Khulna

14 Sea-Level Rise River Discharge Socioeconomic Scenario Development Hydraulic Models Development

15 Table 2 Key Parameters for Socioeconomic Development Figure 4 Model Framework

16 Table 3 Features of the Three Mathematical Models Scenarios Examined under the Study Damage Assessment

17 Figure 5 Comparison of Simulated and Observed Moving Average Water Levels in Khulna Figure 6 Comparison of Measured and Simulated Salinity Levels at Labanchara

18 Figure 7 Comparison of Measured and Simulated Salinity Levels at Mollarhat Table 4 Scenarios Used for the Study

19

20 Other Issues

21 Estimating Impacts on the Proposed Surface Water Supply System Impacts on Water Availability

22

23 350 Figure 9 95% Dependable Flow in Base and Reference Scenarios Flow (m 3 /s) Haridaspur Mollarhat Upstream of Phultala Phultala Daulatpur Labanchara Run 1 Run 3a Run 5a Impacts on River Salinity

24 Table 5 Projected 95% Dependable Flow and Salinity Levels Adaptation Options

25 Figure 10 Change in Mollarhat Salinity Duration Curves due to Climate Change

26 Table 6 Evaluation of Adaptation Options Gorai River Dredging

27 Proposed Investment Project

28

29 Estimating Impacts on the Current and Proposed Urban Drainage System Impacts on the Current Urban Drainage System Table 7 Waterlogged Area in Khulna with Climate Change (%)

30

31 Proposed Improvements to the Urban Drainage System and Impacts of Climate Change on the Improved System Table 8 Waterlogged City Area, with Climate Change (%)

32

33 Adaptation Options Table 9 Waterlogged City Area, with Climate Change (%)

34

35 Table 10 Cost of Drainage System Improvements for Different Scenarios

36 Table 11 Damage Costs and Adaptation Benefits (Tk million)

37 Proposed Investment Project Table 12 Waterlogged Area in Khulna with Unified Improvement (%)

38 Limitations and Conclusions Limitations

39 Conclusions

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