indigenous livestock to extinction? Raed M. Al-Atiyat

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1 Is climate change driving the indigenous livestock to extinction? A simulation study of Jordan indigenous cattle Raed M. Al-Atiyat Animal Science Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Mutah University.

2 Background - Jordan indigenous cattle (locally called Baladi) is a beef breed - With high work ability (Mason, 1996). -The breed is reported to be hardy and well adapted to local environment of dry areas of western part of Jordan and to be resistant to tropical diseases (Harb and Khald, 1984). -Particularly, the breed is reared and restricted to areas of different governorates that are aside to Jordan Cleft Valley.

3 Background- Cont. Jordan indigenous cattle - The hardiness of the breed is believed to have resulted from natural selection under management practices of their owners. - The breed is relatively small, short legged, medium neck length, upstanding and well confirmed body. The color varies from brown to black. - Milk yield averaged 3864 L / lactation (335 days under station condition ), - Body weight 328 and 270 kg of at maturity for male and female, respectively (Harb and Khald, 1984; FAOSTAT, 2001). - So extinction the breed means losing - Their meat - Their milk (losing them as a food source)

4 Indigenous cattle is endangered of extinction As a result of many reasons, such as emerging events of drought and feed scarcity which due to climate change in weather conditions (e.g. less rainfall and high temperature), The cattle show fast dropping in census number in the last 25 years (Jordan Ministry of Agriculture, 2006). For example, in the year 1982, the total number of cattle was 22,141 while in year 2006 it was 1880 (<0.09%). Cattle Po opulation size Years So, without any conservation efforts, the cattle are facing extinction in the future time

5 Systems of assessing the endangerment of Extinction Several systems have been proposed, such as FAO (1995), European Commission (1992) and Deutsche Gesellschaft Fur Zuchtungskunde (DGfZ) (1991) use a condition number of female breeding < 5000, male breeding < 20 and breeding herds < 10 - However, The FAO (1995), EAAP data (2005) and European Commission (1992) set effective population size (Ne) of < 82, 84, and 400, respectively as a critical and endangered level. - On the other hand, conservation process is only possible to endangered breed when a diversity conservation plan is well established. It was recommended that the conservation plan is to be on population viability analysis (PVA). PVA is originally to determine the probability of extinction (PE) that incorporate environmental conditions, threats to persistence, and future management actions over defined time periods. -Vortex, a computer program that estimates PE through a simulation of effects of deterministic forces as well as stochastic events on small animal populations

6 The objectives The objectives were to simulate the extinction probabilities (PE) under their different scenarios of feed scarcity and drought severity And to provide information needed for genetic conservation program of other livestock (e.g Sheep and goat).

7 Results : Normal and effective population sizes Since Ne widely considered rather than N, the current Ne for this breed was 40, whereas two years earlier it was 83. Year 1982 N N e 6276 The FAO (1995), EAAP data (2005) and European Commission (1992) set Ne of less than 82, 84, and 400, respectively as a critical and endangered d level. l Therefore, the indigenous Jordan cattle was not endangered in 2004, whereas it was indeed facing extinction in year 2006 as its Ne is almost half of what is recommended to escape endangerment

8 The input parameters for Vortex simulations

9 Results The Simulation Modelling Past times Plot of individual iterations of the simulation model of indigenous cattle population dynamics in 25 years of past time using Vortex ;

10 Results Real & Simulated Pop. Dynamics Pop ulation siz ze (Animal l) Simulated Real Years Real and simulated indigenous cattle population dynamics in past 25 years (from 1982 to 2006).

11 Results Simulation- Modelling of Future - - Plot of individual iterations of the simulation model of indigenous cattle population dynamics in 25 years of future time using Vortex ; where N: population size, r: Growth rate, PE: probability of extinctions, H: heterozigosity.

12 Solutions & Conclusion In such cases, it is recommended that the ex- situ and in-situ conservation programs can only be a successful tool to conserve this breed. In any case the considered d threats t of drought and feed scarcity must be left out ahead

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