The structure of the Italian PV market: characteristics, segmentation, SWOT analysis

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1 The structure of the Italian PV market: characteristics, segmentation, SWOT analysis Gerardo Montanino Head of Operations Department ITALIAN PV SUMMIT Verona, 3 May 2010

2 2 Agenda The role of GSE The Italian PV market characteristics segmentation SWOT analysis Conclusions

3 3 The role of GSE Ministry of Economic Development, also in consultation with Ministry of Environment MINISTRY OF ECONOMY AEEG Italian Regulatory Authority for Electricity and Gas Guidelines Ownership 100% Decisions Acquirente Unico SINGLE ( Single BUYER Buyer ) (AU) 100% Gestore dei dei Servizi Servizi Energetici Elettrici ( Energy Service Operator ) (GSE) 100% Gestore dei Mercati Energetici ( Energy Market Operator ) 49% Purchase of electricity for small customers ERSE former CESI RICERCA Electricity Market Environmental Markets ( Green Certificates - White Certificates - CO2 Allowances)

4 4 Agenda The role of GSE The Italian PV market characteristics segmentation SWOT analysis Conclusions

5 5 The Italian PV market: characteristics Premium ( /kwh)( for electricity produced by PV plants commissioned in 2010 TYPE OF PLANT Capacity (kw) 1 Not integrated 2 Partially integrated 3 Integrated A 1 P B 3 < P C P >

6 6 The Italian PV market: characteristics The structure of Italian Feed-in Premium /kwh Not integrated plants Integrated plants Premium Possible Bonus* Price of energy** Total Possible bonuses are granted for specific kinds of plants (5%); plants operating in net-metering system, in case of improving the energy efficiency of the annexed building (with a limit of 30%). * The bonus shown in the table takes into account only the 5% above mentioned. ** In case of plants operating in net metering system, this value is higher (around 0.18 /kwh) because of saving on the bill.

7 7 The Italian PV market: characteristics Comparison of support scheme in some EU Countries Hours equivalent [1] Duration (years) Residential ( 3 kw) [2] Tariffs 2010 ( c/kwh) Commercial (>20 kw) [3] Italy [4] 1, ( ) [5] ( ) Germany ( ) [6] Spain 1, France 1, [7] 34.7 [8] [1] Ratio between average productibility and the capacity of the plant. [2] PV plants installed on roofs. [3] Not integrated ground plants. [4] The value of energy produced by PV plant is included (18 c/kwh for residential, 10 c/kwh for commercial). [5] Partially integrated plants. [6] Direct consumption bonus + saving on bill (in case of auto-consumption). [7] Simplified integration on buildings. [8] Average value between the 31.4 and 37.7.

8 8 The Italian PV market: characteristics duration Revenues over the whole support period depending on hours equivalent value of energy produced (in Italian case) Impianti Residential residenziali plants (<= 3 3kW kw) 100 (Italy = 100) , , ,6 0 Italy Germany Spain France Italia Germania Spagna Francia

9 9 The Italian PV market: characteristics duration Revenues over the whole support period depending on hours equivalent value of energy produced (in Italian case) Impianti Commercial commerciali plants (> > 20 kw) 100 (Italy = 100) , , ,4 0 Italy Italia Germany Germania Spagna Spain Francia France

10 10 The Italian PV market: characteristics Plants yearly commissioned by number and capacity 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Number 39,506 24,097 6,278 1, Total number of plants 71, Capacity (kw) Total capacity 1,142 MW

11 11 The Italian PV market: characteristics PV plants production GWh 1,

12 12 The Italian PV market: characteristics Total incentives distributed Million

13 13 The Italian PV market: characteristics Number and capacity of plants monthly commissioned Number 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 FIRST FEED-IN SECOND FEED-IN Capacity (kw) 350, , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 FIRST FEED-IN SECOND FEED-IN

14 14 The Italian PV market: characteristics PV installed capacity in 2009 MW 4,000 3,800 Germany 3,500 Italy 3,000 Japan 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, USA Czech Republic Belgium France South Korea China Spain Sources: EPIA, GSE (Italy), German Federal Network Agency (Germany)

15 15 The Italian PV market: characteristics MW 10,000 8,000 Total PV installed capacity at the end of ,108 Germany Spain Japan 6,000 USA 4,000 2,000 3,377 2,633 1,623 1, Italy South Korea Czech Republic 0 Belgium China France Sources: EPIA, GSE (Italy), German Federal Network Agency (Germany)

16 16 Agenda The role of GSE Gestore dei Servizi Energetici The Italian PV market characteristics segmentation SWOT analysis Conclusions

17 17 The Italian PV market: segmentation PV plants commissioned under Feed-in Premium by capacity range 1,142 MW of commissioned capacity 450, , % 1 kw P 3 kw kw 350, , , , , ,000 50, % 23.10% 24.41% 10.11% 3 kw < P 20 kw 20 kw < P 200 kw 200 kw < P 1000 kw P > 1000 kw 40,000 35, % 46.79% 71,284 commissioned plants 1 kw P 3 kw Number 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 3 kw < P 20 kw 20 kw < P 200 kw 200 kw < P 1000 kw 10,000 5, % 0.90% 0.06% P > 1000 kw -

18 18 Average capacity plant commissioned (kw) Yearly Monthly Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 mar-10 The Italian PV market: segmentation

19 19 Risultati del Conto Energia segmentation The Italian PV market: Percentage of number of PV plants installed by Region and Province Number of plants 71,

20 20 Risultati del Conto Energia segmentation The Italian PV market: Percentage of PV capacity installed by Region and Province Total capacity 1,142 MW

21 21 Risultati del Conto Energia segmentation The Italian PV market: kw per km2 and Watt per inhabitant by Region kw / km2 Watt /inhabitant

22 22 The Italian PV market: segmentation Level of architectural integration of commissioned plants of second Feed-in Premium 65,527 PLANTS Number 7% 32% Integrated Partially Integrated Not Integrated 61% Capacity 973 MW 35% 30% Integrated Partially Integrated Not Integrated 35%

23 23 The Italian PV market: segmentation Country of origin of PV modules installed in Italy ITALY 15% USA 14% SPAIN 3% NORWAY 2% ROW 6% JAPAN 18% CHINA 22% GERMANY 20%

24 24 The Italian PV market: segmentation Country of origin of inverters installed in Italy ITALY 31% AUSTRIA 16% SWITZERLAND 4% JAPAN 2% DENMARK 1% ROW 5% GERMANY 41%

25 25 The Italian PV market: segmentation Module technology by range of capacity installed kw Mono c-si Multi c-si Thin film/others 1 < P 3 43% 55% 2% 3 < P 20 41% 55% 4% 20 < P % 54% 9% 200 < P 1,000 33% 58% 9% P > 1,000 42% 46% 12%

26 26 The Italian PV market: segmentation Installation site of PV plants by number and capacity Number Capacity 6% SHELTER 4% OTHERS BUILDINGS 56% SHELTER 5% 6% OTHERS 85% BUILDINGS 5% GROUND 33% GROUND

27 27 Agenda The role of GSE Gestore dei Servizi Energetici The Italian PV market characteristic segmentation SWOT analysis Conclusions

28 28 The Italian PV market: SWOT analysis EXTERNAL INTERNAL STRENGTHS High level of insolation Strong support scheme Growing awareness of climate change issues Legislation requiring PV for new buildings OPPORTUNITIES Reduction of the cost of components of PV plants EU commitments on RES WEAKNESSES Difficulties to obtain authorizations Difficulties to integrate the PV plants into historical cities Weakness of a national industry High cost of turnkey systems due to high margins along the distribution chain Frequent change of regolatory framework Local opposition to the PV installations Grid weakness, especially in the South of Italy THREATS Possible shortage of materials and components following the strong growth of PV Other RES competition with lower generation cost

29 29 Agenda The role of GSE Gestore dei Servizi Energetici The Italian PV market characteristic segmentation SWOT analysis Conclusions

30 30 Conclusions Results and estimates Number and power of PV plants commissioned 2,500 2,000 2, , ,000 1, , ,000 MW 1,000 1,140 71,250 80,000 N , , ,800 40, * Capacity (MW) Number * Best estimates

31 31 Conclusions Results and estimates GWh 2000, 1500, 1000, energia annualmente incentivata (GWh) Electricity incentivated per year (GWh) 800, * previsione * 2010* * best estimate incentivi annualmente riconosciuti (M ) Incentives distributed per year (M ) M, 1200, * 2010* * previsione * best estimate

32 32 Conclusions The key aspects of Italian market The new Decree, foreseen for the end of 2009, is not yet approved; it is expected to be endorsed between May and June. According to a recent law, the present tariff for the PV owners and investors is guaranteed to the plants installed within 2010, even if not yet commissioned; the prerequisite will be the request of the connection to the grid within a sufficient period of time before the end of GSE is working with the Ministry of Economic Development in order to define a procedure. The difficulties to obtain authorization. The authorization process is quite long in Italy, with huge differences among regions, national guidelines would have to be issued soon. Both the above mentioned issues will be discussed by the same State Regions Conference. Long lead times for the connection to the grid, as the result of the huge number of requests. Moreover, the grid is not well developed, especially in areas with the highest radiation level of the southern regions.

33 33 Conclusions GSE is responsible for all the activities related to giving incentives and managing the electricity produced by RES plants. Further more, the central role of GSE in Italy is going to be strengthened with the development of a satellite system acquisition data that will provide information of 5,000 PV, small hydro and wind power plants. This system makes available data both on power production and primary sources.

34 34 Thank you for your attention!

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