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1 October 6, 2016 EMBARGOED UNTIL 7AM, OCT. 6 Media Contact: Pr. Spencer Kimball Emerson College Polling Advisor Emerson College Poll: Clinton and Trump Keep It Close in Florida, Nevada and Arizona but Clinton Surges in Rhode Island. GOP Could Lock Up Three Senate Seats BOSTON, MA Four new polls released today by Emerson College shows a tightening the presidential race and for the first time, Hillary Clinton has taken a lead in Arizona by a margin 44% to 42%. Donald Trump leads 45% to 44% in the battleground state Florida the two are even in Nevada, at 43% each. In Rhode Island Clinton has opened up a 20-point advantage over Trump (52% to 32%). She has extended her margin 17 points in the Ocean State since a September Emerson poll where she held just a 3-point edge, 44% to 41%, mostly due to Bernie Sanders primary voters coming back to Clinton.. Figure 1: Presidential Ballot FL NV RI AZ Clinton 44% 43% 52% 44% Trump 45% 43% 32% 42% Johnson 4% 9% 5% 9% Stein 3% 4% 5% 1% Unsure 4% 2% 6% 6% n= MOE* 3.90% 3.60% 3.90% 3.90% *Margin error Republicans are comfortably ahead in two three U.S. Senate races and have a modest lead in the third. Marco Rubio, who is running for his old seat after losing the GOP presidential nominating contest to Trump, has an 8-point lead over Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy, 47% to 39%. In what was expected to be a tough race, Arizona Senator John McCain is up 16 points over his Democratic challenger, Ann Kirkpatrick, 52% to 36%. With the Senate Minority Leader, Democrat Harry Reid, retiring this year Republican Joe Heck holds a 4-point lead over Catherine Cortez Masto, 45% to 41%. 1

2 Figure 2: Sanders Voters Candidate Preference by State Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Unsure FL 62% 18% 2% 17% 1% NV 50% 15% 18% 16% 2% RI 67% 10% 6% 11% 6% AZ 78% 7% 11% 3% 2% Rhode Island and Arizona are the first states where Emerson polls suggest that Bernie Sanders primary voters may be coming around to the Clinton camp. In the September 7 Emerson survey, only 50% Sanders voters said they planned to vote for Clinton. In the current poll that figure jumped to 67%, and almost 8 every 10 Sanders Arizona voters (78%) now favor Clinton. In two the states, Independents favor Trump while the other two lean toward Clinton. He is up by 11 points in Nevada (47% to 36%) and 6 in Rhode Island (42% to 36%). She has a 1-point edge in Florida (40% to 39%) and a 5-point margin in Arizona (42% to 37%). Three the states polled have a sizable Hispanic population: Florida (19%), Nevada (22%) and Arizona (22%). Among Hispanic voters, Clinton has a solid lead over Trump in all three: 59% to 21% in Nevada, 54% to 40% in Arizona, and 59% to 36% in Florida. In Florida, the only state among the four polled that has an African American population greater than 10%, Clinton has an enormous lead, 77% to 18%. Except for Rhode Island, where Clinton has a 34-point advantage with women, 60% to 26%, the genders split fairly evenly between the two candidates in the other states. CALLER ID The Emerson College Florida, Arizona, Nevada and Rhode Island polls were conducted in English and Spanish from October 2-4, under the Supervision Pressor Spencer Kimball. The sample for Nevada consisted 700 likely general election voters with a margin error +/- 3.6%; for Florida, Arizona, and Rhode Island the sample size 600 had a margin error +/- 3.9%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, age, gender, race and party affiliation. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party breakdowns carry with them higher margins error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system landlines only. The full methodology and results can be found at Frequency Tables for the Four Polls Begin on the Following Page 2

3 Florida Frequency Table Voting Intention Frequency Already Voted Plan to vote early Election day Party Frequency Democrat Republican Independent Gender male female Ballot Frequency Barack Obama Mitt Romney Someone else

4 2016 primary Sanders Clinton Cruz Trump Kasich Rubio Other No vote Clinton Name Rec favorable unfavorable undecided Trump Name Rec favorable unfavorable undecided Murphy Frequency favorable unfavorable undecided

5 Rubio favorable unfavorable undecided Presidential Ballot Frequency Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Unsure Presidential Expectation Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Unsure Senate Murphy Rubio Other Undecided

6 Age Education >HS HS Some College Associate Bachelor Post Grad Race white black American Indian Asian Hawaiian Hispanic Language English Spanish

7 Region North Central South Nevada Frequency Table Voting Intention Frequency Already Voted Plan to vote early Election day Party Democrat Republican Independent Gender male female

8 2012 Ballot Frequency Barack Obama Mitt Romney Someone else primary Sanders Clinton Cruz Trump Kasich Rubio Other No vote Clinton Name Rec favorable unfavorable undecided Trump Name Rec favorable unfavorable undecided

9 Heck favorable unfavorable undecided Masto favorable unfavorable undecided Presidential Ballot Frequency Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Unsure Presidential Expectation Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Unsure

10 Senate Masto Heck Other Undecided Age Education >HS HS Some College Associate Bachelor Post Grad Race white black Asian Hispanic

11 Phone Status Frequency Cell Phone Only Land Line only both Total Missing System Total USC District Language English Spanish Arizona Frequency Table Already Voted Plan to vote early Election day Voting Intention Frequency

12 Party Democrat Republican Independent Gender male female Ballot Barack Obama Mitt Romney Someone else Frequency primary Sanders Clinton Cruz Trump Kasich Rubio Other No vote

13 Clinton Name Rec favorable unfavorable undecided Trump Name Rec favorable unfavorable undecided Kirkpatrick favorable unfavorable undecided McCain favorable unfavorable undecided

14 Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Presidential Ballot Frequency Jill Stein Unsure Presidential Expectation Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Unsure Senate Kirkpatrick McCain Other Undecided Age

15 Education >HS HS Some College Associate Bachelor Post Grad refused Race white black American Indian Asian Hawaiian Hispanic USC District Language English Spanish

16 Rhode Island Frequency Table Voting Intention Frequency Already Voted Plan to vote early Election day Party Democrat Republican Independent Gender male female Ballot Frequency Barack Obama Mitt Romney Someone else

17 2016 primary Sanders Clinton Cruz Trump Kasich Rubio Other No vote Clinton Name Rec favorable unfavorable undecided Trump Name Rec favorable unfavorable undecided

18 Presidential Ballot Frequency Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Unsure Presidential Expectation Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Unsure Age

19 Education >HS HS Some College Associate Bachelor Post Grad Total Missing System 4.7 Total Race white black American Indian Asian Hawaiian Hispanic /Other refused Total Missing System 4.7 Total USC District

20 Language English Spanish

21 21

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