Financial Scrutiny Unit Briefing Labour Market, January 2014 update

Transcription

1 The Scottish Parliament and Scottish Parliament Infor mation C entre l ogos. Financial Scrutiny Unit Briefing Labour Market, January 2014 update Andrew Aiton 24 February /06 A briefing on the Office for National Statistics' January 2014 Regional Labour Market release for Scotland.

2 CONTENTS SUMMARY... 3 LABOUR FORCE SURVEY... 4 UNEMPLOYMENT... 4 Unemployment by gender... 4 Unemployment by age group... 5 EMPLOYMENT... 6 Employment by Gender... 6 ECONOMIC INACTIVITY... 7 Economic Inactivity by Gender... 8 CLAIMANT COUNT... 9 CLAIMANT COUNT MAP ANNUAL POPULATION SURVEY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BY CONSTITUENCY GUEST INDICATOR: MAUFACTURING SECTOR Employment in manufacturing sector SOURCES RELATED BRIEFINGS

3 SUMMARY Key labour market indicators for Scotland (Seasonally adjusted) Unemployment Employment Economic Inactivity Claimant Count 6.4% 72.7% 22.1% 3.3% For the three months to August 2013 From previous month The unemployment rate in Scotland was 6.4% for the three months to November 2013, down 0.9 percentage point on the previous quarter. The UK unemployment rate was 7.1% for the three months to November 2013, down 0.5 percentage points on the previous three months. The latest figures show that the number of people in work in Scotland fell by 0.1 percentage points over the last quarter, with the UK registering a 0.5 percentage point increase. Economic inactivity increased in Scotland by 0.8 percentage points with the UK down 0.1 percentage points on the previous three months. The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate for Scotland in September was 3.3%. This is und from the previous month. 3

4 LABOUR FORCE SURVEY The Labour Force Survey (LFS) records the official unemployment rate along with a wide variety of other labour market statistics. It surveys a sample group of 60,000 households throughout the UK, including approximately 6,000 in Scotland. LFS figures are therefore estimates based on this sample. UNEMPLOYMENT The LFS uses the International Labour Organisation s definition of unemployment. It estimates the number of people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks (Office for National Statistics, 2013a). The unemployment rate is then calculated by dividing this number by the total number of economically active people, which includes both the unemployed and those in work. The Scottish unemployment rate fell by 0.9 percentage points to 6.4% for the three months to November This means there are currently 176,000 people unemployed in Scotland the lowest level since February The UK figure for the same period fell on the previous quarter to 7.1%. Both Scottish and the UK unemployment fell over both the quarter and the year. Table 1 Unemployment (16+) Amount Quarter Seasonally Adjusted Quarter (% (% Scotland % -0.9% -1.3% UK 2, % -0.5% -0.6% Fig. 1 shows how the unemployment rate has d from 2006 to The Scottish rate was below the UK rate until 2009 and since then it has remained similar to the UK rate. The Scottish rate peaked at 8.6% in 2011 with the UK rate peaking at 8.4% during the same period. Fig.1 Scottish and UK Unemployment s (%): Scotland 2 UK Unemployment by gender Unemployment levels and rates are higher for men than for women for the UK however in Scotland the current unemployment rate for women is higher than men. Male unemployment fell by 16,000 while female unemployment fell by 9,000 in the three months to November 2013 in Scotland. The UK saw a decrease in unemployment for both men and women over both the quarter and the year. 4

5 Table 2 Unemployment by Gender (16+ ) Scotland UK Amount Quarter Seasonally Adjusted Quarter (% (% Men % -1.1% -2.3% Women % -0.7% -0.2% Men 1, % -0.6% -0.6% Women 1, % -0.4% -0.6% Fig. 2 shows how the unemployment for both genders has d from 2006 to Sep- Nov The unemployment rate for women is the lowest since Jun-Aug 2011 while male unemployment is the lowest since Male unemployment peaked at 10% in March-May 2010 with the female unemployment rate peaking at 8.1% in Dec-Feb Fig 2. Scottish Unemployment by Gender rates (%): Unemployment by age group 2009 Men Women Fig 3. Proportion of total unemployment by age group in Scotland The following section provides information on unemployment by age group. The chart on the right shows the proportion of total unemployment by age group in Scotland % Table 3 shows that while the rate of unemployment for year-olds has fallen in the last 12 months, it remains higher than any other age group with the Scottish rate lower that the UK. The recent drop has seen the level fall to its lowest rate for the same period since 2011 (Dec-Feb 2011 figure was 19.6%) % % % 5

6 Table 3 Unemployment rates by age Not Seasonally Adjusted (% (% (% (% Scotland % -0.3% 6.9% -1.2% 3.3% -2.4% 4.1% +0.4% UK 20.4% -0.6% 6.6% -0.8% 4.6% -0.7% 4.4% -0.3% EMPLOYMENT The number of people in Scotland aged 16 and over in work between September and November increased by 10,000 compared to the previous three months which is the highest level since Mar-May 2008 (2,562,000). However the employment rate for people aged is down slightly compared to the previous quarter. UK employment also increased on the previous quarter and over the year. Table 4 Employment (amount 16+, rate 16-64) Amount Quarter Seasonally Adjusted Quarter (% (% Scotland 2, % -0.1% +2.0% UK 30, % +0.5% +0.7% Fig 4 shows a comparison of the Scottish and UK employment rates from 2006 to Sep- Nov The current employment rate in Scotland is the highest since Dec 2008-Feb 2009 (73.2%) with the UK rate the highest since 2008 ( %). Fig. 4 Scottish and UK Employment rate (%): Scotland UK Employment by Gender Employment levels and rates are higher for men than for women at both Scottish and UK levels. The increase in employment over the quarter was driven by a 7,000 in employment for men however over the year women saw an increase of 62,000 with men seeing a 29,000 increase 1 These statistics are not of sufficient quality to be published by the ONS as National Statistics and are published as experimental statistics 6

7 The UK also saw an increase in employment for both men and women over the year and quarter. Table 5 Employment by Gender (Amount 16+, rates 16-64) Scotland UK Amount Quarter Seasonally Adjusted Quarter (% (% Men 1, % -0.2% +0.7% Women 1, % +0.0% +3.3% Men 16, % +0.7% +0.6% Women 13, % +0.3% +0.8% Fig. 5 shows the employment rate for men and women from 2006 to The current rate for men is down 0.2 percentage points with the rate for women und on the previous quarter which was the highest since Mar-May 2008 (69.5%). Fig. 5 Scottish Employment by Gender s (%): Men Women ECONOMIC INACTIVITY Economic inactivity is a measure of people not in work, not seeking work and not available to work. The LFS shows a decrease in the number of economically inactive in both Scotland and the UK over the year. However Scotland saw an increase of 31,000 over the quarter. Table 6 Inactivity (16-64) Amount Quarter Seasonally Adjusted Quarter (% (% Scotland % +0.8% -1.2% UK 8, % -0.1% -0.2 % Fig. 6 shows the Scottish economic inactivity rate from 2006 to The Scottish and UK rates have not fluctuated much over the period. However the current quarter has seen a 0.8 percentage point increase in Scotland which in part is due to the fall in unemployment. 7

8 Fig. 6 Scottish and UK Economic Inactivity s (%): Scotland UK Economic Inactivity by Gender Economic inactivity rates are generally higher for women than for men. The rate for men in Scotland has increased over both the year and the quarter with the rates for women decreasing over the year. At the UK level the rates for men decreased over both the year and the quarter however women s rates saw no over the quarter but decreased over the year. Table 7 Economic Inactivity by Gender (16-64) Scotland UK Amount Quarter Seasonally Adjusted Quarter (% (% Men % +1.1% +1.2% Women % +0.6% -3.4% Men 3, % -0.1% -0.1% Women 5, % 0.0% -0.4% Fig. 7 shows the economic inactivity rates for men and women in Scotland from 2006 to The male rate in Scotland is the highest since 2010 (18.7%) with the female rate bucking the downward trend with an increase of 0.6 percentage points. Fig. 7 Scottish Economic Inactivity by Gender s (%): Men Women

9 CLAIMANT COUNT The Claimant Count records the number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) and National Insurance Credits at Jobcentre Plus local offices. This is not an official measure of unemployment but does provide accurate information on the labour market at a local level. The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate for Scotland in und from November remaining at 3.3%. The UK seasonally adjusted claimant count rate is 3.1% for December, which is und from November. Figure 8 compares the Scottish and UK seasonally adjusted claimant count rate. The Scottish rate has been around 0.2 percentage points high than the UK rate since February Both rates have been above 3.0% since August Fig.8 Scottish and UK seasonally adjusted claimant count rate (%): January 2007 onwards Scotland United Kingdom 0 Table 8 shows data on the not seasonally adjusted claimant count for each Scottish Parliament constituency. Table 8 Claimant Count Number December 2013 Rank (1=highe st ) Monthly Change Number (% Not Seasonally Adjusted Annual Change Number (% Aberdeen Central 1, Aberdeen Donside Aberdeen South and North Kincardine Aberdeenshire East

10 Table 8 Claimant Count Aberdeenshire West Number December 2013 Rank (1=highe st ) Monthly Change Number (% Not Seasonally Adjusted Annual Change Number (% Airdrie and Shotts 2, Almond Valley 1, Angus North and Mearns Angus South Argyll and Bute 1, Ayr 1, Banffshire and Buchan Coast Caithness, Sutherland and Ross Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley Clackmannanshire and Dunblane Clydebank and Milngavie , , , , Clydesdale 1, Coatbridge and Chryston 1, Cowdenbeath 1, Cumbernauld and Kilsyth Cunninghame North Cunninghame South 1, , , Dumbarton 1, Dumfriesshire 1, Dundee City East 2, Dundee City West 2, Dunfermline 1, East Kilbride 1, East Lothian 1,

11 Table 8 Claimant Count Number December 2013 Rank (1=highe st ) Monthly Change Number (% Not Seasonally Adjusted Annual Change Number (% Eastwood Edinburgh Central 1, Edinburgh Eastern 2, Edinburgh Northern and Leith Edinburgh Pentlands Edinburgh Southern 2, , Edinburgh Western 1, Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire 1, Falkirk East 1, Falkirk West 1, Galloway and West Dumfries Glasgow Anniesland 1, , Glasgow Cathcart 1, Glasgow Kelvin 1, Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn 2, Glasgow Pollok 2, Glasgow Provan 2, Glasgow Shettleston Glasgow Southside Greenock and Inverclyde Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Inverness and Nairn Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley 2, , , , , Kirkcaldy 2, Linlithgow 1,

12 Table 8 Claimant Count Mid Fife and Glenrothes Midlothian North and Musselburgh Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale Number December 2013 Rank (1=highe st ) Monthly Change Number (% Not Seasonally Adjusted Annual Change Number (% 1, , , Moray Motherwell and Wishaw Na h-eileanan an Iar 2, North East Fife Orkney Islands Paisley 2, Perthshire North Perthshire South and Kinrossshire Renfrewshire North and West Renfrewshire South , , Rutherglen 1, Shetland Islands Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch Stirling 1, Strathkelvin and Bearsden Uddingston and Bellshill , Scotland 108, , UK 1,201, , , Source: Office for National Statistics. (2013c) 12

13 CLAIMANT COUNT MAP Claimant Count December 2013 Between 0.6% and 2.1% Between 2.1% and 3.3% Between 3.3% and 4.2% Between 4.2% and 5.6% Based on OS material with the permission of OS. SPCB

14 ANNUAL POPULATION SURVEY The APS is the combination of the LFS with sample boosts from England, Wales and Scotland. The combination of different sources takes the total number of individuals that take part in the APS to approximately 340,000, with the Scottish component accounting for around 35,000 individuals. The design of the APS enables annual estimates for relatively small areas of the United Kingdom (e.g. local authority or Parliamentary constituency) to be produced. The APS results are published quarterly. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BY CONSTITUENCY The table below contains the unemployment rate for each Scottish Parliamentary constituency using the International Labour Organisation s definition of unemployment. It should be noted estimates are not available for some areas as the sample size is too small to provide a figure with a significant rate of confidence. Table 9: Unemployment by Scottish Parliamentary constituency: Oct 2012-Sep 2013 Constituency Unemployment (%) - aged 16+ Change on year (percentage Aberdeen Central Aberdeen Donside Aberdeen South and North Kincardine Aberdeenshire East* Aberdeenshire West* Airdrie and Shotts Almond Valley Angus North and Mearns Angus South Argyll and Bute Ayr Banffshire and Buchan Coast Caithness, Sutherland and Ross Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley Clackmannanshire and Dunblane Clydebank and Milngavie Clydesdale Coatbridge and Chryston Cowdenbeath Cumbernauld and Kilsyth Cunninghame North Cunninghame South Dumbarton Dumfriesshire Dundee City East Dundee City West Dunfermline East Kilbride East Lothian Eastwood Edinburgh Central Edinburgh Eastern

15 Constituency Unemployment (%) - aged 16+ Change on year (percentage Edinburgh Northern and Leith Edinburgh Pentlands* 5.8 Edinburgh Southern Edinburgh Western Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire Falkirk East Falkirk West Galloway and West Dumfries Glasgow Anniesland Glasgow Cathcart Glasgow Kelvin* Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn Glasgow Pollok Glasgow Provan Glasgow Shettleston* Glasgow Southside Greenock and Inverclyde Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Inverness and Nairn Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley Kirkcaldy Linlithgow Mid Fife and Glenrothes Midlothian North and Musselburgh Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale Moray Motherwell and Wishaw Na h-eileanan an Iar North East Fife 7.1 N/A Orkney Islands* Paisley Perthshire North Perthshire South and Kinrossshire Renfrewshire North and West Renfrewshire South Rutherglen Shetland Islands* 3.4 N/A Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch Stirling Strathkelvin and Bearsden Uddingston and Bellshill Scotland Source: Office for National Statistics. (2013e) *Unable to provide an estimate as sample size is too small. 15

16 GUEST INDICATOR: MAUFACTURING SECTOR The latest data from the Index of Manufactured Exports (IME) shows that for the third quarter of 2013 there was a 2.2% real term decrease in manufactured exports. The IME is a quarterly survey of around 800 manufacturing companies which produces an inflation-adjusted time series allowing us to trace export performance back to the late 1990s. The total value of Scottish manufactured exports declined by 30% between 1999 and 2012 in real terms. Writing in 2011 about IME trends over the previous decade, Professor David Bell concluded that the performance of Scottish manufactured exports has been particularly troubling. Looking behind the headline trend data the largest reductions have been in the textiles and clothing and engineering and allied sectors, where exports have more than halved in value since Some sectors have managed to defy the general trend with the food and drink, metals and metal products and refined petroleum and chemicals sectors all growing significantly over the decade (by 51%, 23% and 117% respectively). Employment in manufacturing sector Since 2005 the number of people employed in the manufacturing sector in Scotland has fallen by around 64,000 to 191,500 meaning it now represents 8.0% of the total Scottish workforce which is below the UK average of9.8%. Fig. 9 show that the proportion of people aged employed in the manufacturing sector in Scotland has followed the similar trend as the UK. However since Oct 2004 to Sep 2005 the UK has seen a decrease of 2.0 percentage points where as Scotland has seen a 2.6 percentage point decrease. Fig. 9: Comparison of employment in the Manufacturing sector in Scotland and the UK United Kingdom Scotland 0 Oct 04- Sep 05 Oct 05- Sep 06 Oct 06- Sep 07 Oct 07- Sep 08 Oct 08- Sep 09 Oct 09- Sep 10 Oct 10- Sep 11 Oct 11- Sep 12 Oct 12- Sep 13 While the proportion of those working in the manufacturing sector in Scotland is currently 8.0% of the total workforce there are variation across Scotland. Fig. 10 shows the proportion of people employed in each constituency who work in the manufacturing sector. Looking at the latest available data the Scottish parliamentary constituency of Caithness, Sutherland and Ross has the highest proportion of people working in the manufacturing industry at 18.9% while Edinburgh Pentlands has the lowest proportion at 2.8%. Please note that in figure 10 there is no available data for the following constituencies: Edinburgh Eastern, Edinburgh Western, Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn, Glasgow Provan and Glasgow Shettleston. 16

17 Fig. 10: Proportion of people working employed in the Manufacturing sector by constituency Between 2.7% and 5.2% Between 5.2% and 7.5% Between 7.5% and 9.6% Between 9.6% and 12.9% Between 12.9% and 17.7% Based on OS material with the permission of OS. SPCB

18 SOURCES Office for National Statistics. (2014a) Labour Market Statistics, January 2014 [Online]. Available at: [Accessed 22 January 2014] Office for National Statistics. (2014b) Regional Labour Market Statistics, January 2014 [Online]. Available at: [Accessed 22 January 2014] Office for National Statistics. (2014c) Claimant Count [Online]. Available at: [Accessed 22 January 2014] Office for National Statistics. (2014d) Estimates of Unemployment by Age, September 2013, [Online]. Available at: [Accessed 22 January 2014] Office for National Statistics. (2014e) Annual Population Survey [Online]. Available at: [Accessed 22 January 2014] Scottish Government, Index of manufactured exports 3rd quarter 2013 [Online]. Available at: [Accessed 22 January 2014] 18

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20 RELATED BRIEFINGS SB Labour Market December 2013 update SB Labour Market Statistics Labour Market visualisations page on the Scottish Parliament website Scottish Parliament Information Centre (SPICe) Briefings are compiled for the benefit of the Members of the Parliament and their personal staff. Authors are available to discuss the contents of these papers with MSPs and their staff who should contact Andrew Aiton on extension or Members of the public or external organisations may comment on this briefing by ing us at However, researchers are unable to enter into personal discussion in relation to SPICe Briefing Papers. If you have any general questions about the work of the Parliament you can the Parliament s Public Information Service at sp.info@scottish.parliament.uk. Every effort is made to ensure that the information contained in SPICe briefings is correct at the time of publication. Readers should be aware however that briefings are not necessarily updated or otherwise amended to reflect subsequent s. 20