Olga Grigorieva and Pavel Grigoriev. BSPS Conference 2008 Manchester, September

Transcription

1 Olga Grigorieva and Pavel Grigoriev Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany BSPS Conference 2008 Manchester, September

2 Do the official data indicating the improvement of welfare of the population reflect the reality? Living arrangement of HH; Income and expenditures of HH; Poverty incidence.

3 Income and Expenditures of the Households sample survey (IEHS), Index of living standards (ILS) computed by means of the Principal Components Analysis; Different approaches of poverty measurement (income based, energy-intake based); Equivalence scales.

4 Demographic Characteristics of HH, 2007 Composition of Households: Single = 24.5% HH with children = 37.5% HH without children = 38% Single HH HH with children HH without children Average age, years Average age of a head of HH, years Share of: males females Place of residence: urban rural

5 Percentage Distribution of HH by Type of Housing; 2000 and Separate apartment Separate house Communal apartment Part of house Dormitory

6 Percentage Distribution of HH by Type of Housing; 2007 Single HH with children % in % in Separate apartment Separate house Communal apartment Part of house Dormitory HH without children

7 Living Arrangements of HH Per capita living space (sq.m): Single HH HH with children HH without children % Percent of HH Equiped with Selected Supplies (2007) Single HH HH with children HH without children central heating bath or shower hot water telephone

8 Living Arrangement of HH (cont.) % Percent of Households Possessing Selected Durable Goods, Car and Land-Plot (2007) Single HH HH with children HH without children TV Fridge Washing machine Car Land-plot % Percent of Households Using Possessed Durables for 10 years and more (2007) Single HH HH with children HH without children TV Fridge Washing machine Car

9 Index of Living Standards (ILS) Housing supplies: central heating, bath or shower, hot water and telephone; Ownership of durable goods: TV, refrigerator, washing machine and car; Possessing of a land-plot; Per capita living space; Share of food expenditures in total custom expenditures. The last two measures are included as a comparison with their median levels. Average value of ILS (2007): Single HH= HH with children= HH without children= The difference is manly caused by: presence of a car or washing machine; size of living space and share of food expenditures.

10 Composition of HH Income, 2007 (%) Single HH HH with children Wages and salaries Pensions, grants and benefits Receipts from sale of agricultural products Other money receipts 29 HH without children

11 Composition of Consumer Expenditures of HH; 2000, % % % 60% % 60% % 20% % 20% % Single HH HH with children HH without children 0% Single HH HH with children HH without children Alcohol Paid services Non-foods Foodstuffs

12 Poverty Measurement: Official Approach Poverty measurement in Belarus is based on the Law On the Subsistence Minimum (1999). The poor are those with level of income below the minimum subsistence level. An indicator of disposable resources is used in Belarus as a substitution of income. It comprises: - total amount of money spend for consumption and savings, - the value of consumed in-kind income obtained from the land plots, - the value of in-kind subsidies and benefits. 2 issues: Use of disposable resources as the indicator for poverty measurement; The composition of the minimum subsistence level (a set of material goods and services necessary to meet minimum physiological and social need of people).

13 Poverty Incidence, Poverty Rates by HH Type; Belarus, % Single HH HH with children HH without children Poverty Composition by HH Type; Belarus, In 2007, 36% of HH had income close to poverty level % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % Single HH HH with children HH without children

14 Distribution of HH by Number of Months of Being Poor in a Year; 2000 and 2007 (%) % 100% 80% % % % 40% 23 40% % % 0% Single With children Without children 0% Single With children Without children

15 Poverty Incidence; 2000 and 2007 % Official approach Based on food expenditures Relative poverty 2 10 Official approach Based on food expenditures Relative poverty Single With children Without children Based on food expenditures: poverty line = 60% of the food expenditures out of total expenditures Relative poverty: poverty line = 60% of the median income

16 Scaling of Poverty Indicators 2 types: Engel model: based on the share of food expenditures. Scales are constructed using regression analysis where the dependence of the food expenditures is established on HH disposable resources and Actual HH size 1 person 2 persons 3 persons 4 persons Equivalent HH size, Engel model HH size. 5 persons and 4.2 more OECD equation: Ne= 1 + (Na 1) * *Nc where Ne is the adjusted HH size Na is the number of adults in HH Nc is the number of children in HH

17 Headcount Poverty Indexes, 2007 (%) % Before adjustment After adjustment (Engel model scales) After adjustment (OECD scales) Single HH HH with children HH without children

18 Consumption of Basic Foodstuffs; 2000 and 2007 (per capita quantity consumed per year; kg) kg Single HH HH with children HH without children 2000 kg Single HH HH with children HH without children 2007 Bread and bakery Meat products Fish products Potatoes Vegetables Fruits

19 Chemical Composition and Caloric Value of Consumed Products; 2000 and 2007 (per capita quantity consumed per day) Caloric Value, kcal Single HH with children HH without children Protein Fats Carbohydrates Protein Fats Carbohydrates Single HH HH with children HH without children

20 Poverty Rates, 2007 (%) Income-based approach Food energy intake approach (Belorussian) Food energy intake approach (WHO) Single HH HH with children HH without children Poverty lines: Belorussian approach = 2470 kcal; WHO approach = 2100 kcal.

21 Concluding Remarks Living arrangements Income-based poverty Poverty based on share of food expenditures Relative poverty Scaling Food-energy approach On average, HH with children have better living arrangements Decrease in poverty; HH with children are the most vulnerable Single HH have the highest poverty incidence Poverty is the highest among HH with children Almost equal poverty rates for all HH types Significant increase in poverty rates; HH with children are affected at most. The income-based approach is not sufficient for the impartial assessment of welfare and poverty among HH. So, a number of important aspects, such as living arrangements, nutrition, etc., should be taken into account for more realistic picture.