Market Cycles & OEM Forecast

Transcription

1 Market Cycles & OEM Forecast AGENDA AH At A Glance Market/Cycles/Forecast Heavies Light Twins H160 - New Product Conclusions Doug Carriger Senior Director, North American Marketing doug.carriger@airbus.com Helicopter Investor Miami October 23, 2015 Unless otherwise noted, the source of the market information is the Airbus Global Helicopter Forecast 2015 preliminary figures

2 Airbus Helicopters at a glance: A deliberate focus on customer proximity 3015 operators 29 Customer Centers throughout the world Canada USA Mexico Chile Ireland France Spain Brazil U.K. Germany Romania Saudi Arabia Russia South Africa Kazakhstan South Korea India Malaysia Singapore In 152 countries Japan China Philippines Indonesia Australia 23,400 employees worldwide 2

3 Global Civil Fleet Per Helicopter Class: As of end 2014 (All OEM s) 6,180 light single 6,770 intermediate single 4,680 light twin 3,320 small medium 720 large medium 3,530 heavy % units 24% 27% 19% 13% 3% 14% 3 25,200 turbine helicopters in all market segments

4 4 Civil Helicopter Deliveries: By Mission Segment ( ) Units 8,500 h/c Worth 45.8 B 13% 18% 15% 27% 27% Corp/VIP Utility Law Enforcement E.M.S. Oil & Gas 31% 11% 24% 17% 17% Mission segments well-distributed across the market Utility and Corp/VIP tend to dominate unit demand due to appetite for light, single-engine A/C Oil & Gas and Law Enforcement tend to dominate in value due to appetite for large A/C

5 5 Civil Fleet Expected to Grow: Despite cycles, ~50% increase over the next 20 years Helicopter fleet in service A 60 Bn / 10,490 A/C market over the next 10 years Asia, Brazil, Argentina, Russia Global recession st oil crisis nd oil crisis 1987 Black Monday 1993 EMS % CAGR % CAGR % CAGR % CAGR Growth of the world helicopter fleet has proven to be resilient to external economic shocks

6 10 Year Global Forecast for Civil Market: Exceeds 10,000 units % units % value 1,860 light single 3,500 intermediate single 2,060 light twin 910 small medium 1,180 large medium 980 heavy 18% 33% 20% 9% 11% 9% 3% 14% 19% 13% 25% 26% 6 10,490 new helicopters in all market segments 60 Bn

7 7 Forecast for New Civil Helicopters By Region: New A/C deliveries % 19% 2,690 USA / Canada 14% 13% 14% 1,500 16% 1,450 Western Europe 800 Africa & Middle East 7% 1,550 Eastern Europe / CIS 9% 15% 2,500 17% Asia / Pacific 24% 26% XX% YY% % of World demand units % of World demand value Latin America Demand is primarily driven by replacement in North America and Europe combined with Asian new demand

8 8 Airbus Most Attractive Helicopters: Recommended investment targets EC130 (2001) 5 key helicopters well suited for leasing However, large deal flow of singles could also be attractive to some lessors Heavies & Large Medium Light Twins

9 9 Forecast For New Heavy Helicopters ( ): Almost 1,000 units driven by Eastern Europe and Asia 440 Oil & Gas 980 8% 80 USA / Canada 9% 90 Latin America 10% 95 Western Europe 55 Africa & Middle East 44% Eastern Europe / CIS 6% % Asia / Pacific E.M.S. Law Enforcement Commercial Corp/VIP Global XX% % of World demand units

10 10 Forecast For New Large Medium Helicopter ( ): Almost 1,200 units driven by Oil & Gas and Public Services % 10% Oil & Gas 1, % USA / Canada 13% 155 Latin America Western Europe 170 Africa & Middle East 14.5% Eastern Europe / CIS 28% 330 Asia / Pacific E.M.S. Law Enforcement Commercial Corp/VIP Global XX% % of World demand units

11 Light Twin Helicopters: widely spread across market segments Current Fleet in Service (414 Units) Oil & Gas 6% 14% 8% 27% Law Enforcement 12% Current Fleet in Service (1,065 Units) 6% Oil & Gas 9% 20% Law Enforcement 45% E.M.S. Utility 53% E.M.S. Utility Corp/VIP Corp/VIP 11

12 12 Forecast For New Light Twin Helicopters ( ): Demand for more than 2,000 units 19% % % Eastern Europe / CIS Oil & Gas E.M.S. 2,060 USA / Canada 315 Western Europe 125 6% 24% 505 Law Enforcement Utility 15% Africa & Middle East Asia / Pacific Corp/VIP Global Latin America XX% % of World demand units

13 EC135/EC145 Comparison Of Large and Small Fleets: Significant deal flow exists with smaller operators 100% Comparison by fleet size 80% 60% 40% Fleet <= 10 a/c Fleet > 10 a/c 20% 0% EC135 EC145 AW109 Bell 429 Source: Ascend 13

14 H160 Walk Around: New ton medium class helicopter (12 pax 120 nm radius of action) BIPLANE STABILIZER Contributes to agility with improved performance and exceptional handling ELECTRICAL LANDING GEAR Designed to allow more payload and helps to simplify aircraft maintenance 14 NEW GENERATION TURBOSHAFT ENGINE More powerful than previous generation while reducing fuel consumption and emissions FULL COMPOSITE AIRFRAME Contributes to the robustness of the aircraft and lower maintenance 14

15 Airbus Helicopters Is A Strategic Investment Partner: Transforming to improve safety, quality, and competitiveness An evolving & resilient industry: A steadily growing market, following overall economic growth, resilient to economic fluctuations even if order intakes can be volatile A market always in demand for better cost & flight efficiency Airbus Helicopters products & services for every mission: The most comprehensive product range in the Industry, from light singles to heavies The leader in the civil sector with a Product Renewal Policy deliberately targeting best customer values and better economic efficiency A recognized and continuously improving Service Performance with an in-service fleet of approximately 12,000 helicopters worldwide 15

16 Important to you. Essential to us. Please visit our website for aircraft technical specifications Doug Carriger Senior Director, North American Marketing Unless otherwise noted, the source of the market information is the Airbus Global Helicopter Forecast 2015 preliminary figures 16