Energy Security in Sri Lanka STATUS, PLANS & CHALLENGES. Eng. Buddhika Samarasekara Chief Engineer (Generation Planning) Ceylon Electricity Board

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1 Energy Security in Sri Lanka STATUS, PLANS & CHALLENGES Eng. Buddhika Samarasekara Chief Engineer (Generation Planning) Ceylon Electricity Board 16 th September

2 ENERGY SECURITY WHAT WOULD BE? IS IT THE DIVERSIFICATION OF ENERGY MIX? IS IT THE DIVERSIFICATION OF FUEL SUPPLY? WHETHER ACHIEVED THROUGH INDIGENOUS RESOURCES? (Eg. HYDRO, WIND, SOLAR, DENDRO, NG) WHETHER ACHIEVED THROUGH IMPORTED FUELS? (COAL, OIL, LNG, NUCLEAR) WHETHER LOOK ONLY IN TO THE POWER SECTOR? IS IT ABLE TO ACHIEVE WITHOUT ANY INCREMENTAL COST? WHETHER PEOPLE IN THE COUNTRY WILLING TO PAY MORE?

3 Electricity Generation Mixes in 2011 ( Sample of 20 Countries) 6% 5% 3% 4% 2% 3% 12% 10% 2% 15% 2% A B C D E F 15% 59% 68% 79% 81% 90% 100% 8% 24% 7% 5% 9% 12% 8% 12% 9% 33% 3% 20% 44% 16% 16% G H I J K L 59% 23% 7% 81% 100% 3% 53% 26% 3% 47% 1% 21% 16% 16% 16% 5% 9% 13% 3% 40% M N 16% O P Q R 98% 63% 49% 94% 50% 87% 1% S 99% 30% 21% T 5% 44% Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Other renewables Can you spot our country?

4 Electricity Generation Mixes in 2011 ( Sample of 20 Countries) 4% 2% 3% 6% 5% 3% 12% 2% 15% 8% 10% 2% Brazil Cambodia Canada China Gambia Ghana 59% 15% 68% 81% 90% 79% 100% 24% 7% 5% 9% 12% 8% 12% 9% 33% 3% 20% 44% 16% 16% Indonesia Israel Kazakhstan Laos Mexico Morocco 59% 23% 7% 81% 100% 3% 53% 26% 3% 47% 1% 21% 16% 16% 16% 3% Namibia Nigeria 16% Russia 98% 63% 49% 5% 9% South Africa 94% 40% Sri Lanka 50% 87% 13% Swaziland 1% Tunisia 99% 21% 30% 5% Vietnam 44% Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Other renewables Current situation, future challenges and opportunities are quite diverse around the world.

5 SRI LANKAN POWER SYSTEM Until early 1990s, CEB system was depended on Hydro power. The available hydro generation capacity was adequate to provide the demand. Initiated Non Conventional Renewable Energy integration to the Grid from year 1997 onwards. Presently, Sri Lanka possesses approximately 400MW of NCRE, contributing 10% of Country s energy share. Electricity Generation mix has shown a shift from hydropower to fossil fuel with : - increasing demand - unavailability of economically feasible sites for the development of major hydro resources

6 PRESENT CAPACITY MIX AS AT AUGUST 2014 Thermal 51% NCRE 12% Mini hydro 8% Major Hydro 37% 2014 Capacity (MW) Laxapana 338 Mahaweli 812 Samanala 210 CEB Thermal 1164 IPP 698 NCRE 405 Total 3628 Wind 3% Solar 0.04% Biomass 1% 6

7 NCRE- PRESENT STATUS Commissioned NCRE Projects as at mid 2014 NCRE Technology No of Projects Capacity (MW) 1 Mini Hydro Power Biomass - Agricultural & Industrial Waste Biomass - Dendro Power Solar Power Wind Power Total

8 NCRE- PRESENT STATUS NCRE Energy Contribution 8

9 Policy Targets The Government envisages reaching a 100% electrification target by The Ministry of Power and Energy has prepared the National Energy Polices and Strategies of Sri Lanka (2008). The revision of the National Energy Policy is already being finalized. Mahinda Chinthana Future Vision, which documents the Government s Vision for National Development has set challenging target of achieving NCRE share of 20% by 2020.

10 Energy Policy Elements 1-Providing Basic Energy Needs Energy requirements to fulfill the basic needs of the people, and to enhance their living standards and opportunities for gainful economic activity will be adequately and continually satisfied at the lowest possible cost to the economy. 2-Ensuring Energy Security 3-Promoting Energy Efficiency and Conservation 4-Promoting Indigenous Resources 5-Adopting an Appropriate Pricing Policy 6-Enhancing Energy Sector Management Capacity 7-Consumer Protection and Ensuring a Level Playing Field 8- Enhancing the Quality of Energy Services 9-Protection from Adverse Environmental Impacts of Energy Facilities

11 LONG TERM GENERATION EXPANSION PLAN System Capacity Distribution Revised Base Case LTGEP Type of Plant Total capacity addition (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) % Major Hydro % NCRE % Coal % Gas Turbines % Medium Diesel % Total 1,416 1,934 1,340 1, % Capacity (MW) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 DNR CCY Coal Cumulative Capacity by Plant Type DSL GT Hydro Year 11

12 Total Capacity(MW) Future Commitment towards Development of Renewable Energy Mini Hydro Wind Biomass Source LTGEP Only 12.5% Energy could be catered by 2020 with the present scenario Solar

13 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Robustness of the economically optimized plan was Investigated by analyzing its sensitivity to changes in the key input parameters. Demand Discount rate Fuel prices Cost of Energy Not Served Non-conventional renewable absorption Restricted implementation of coal fired power plants Introducing Pump Storage Power Plants With CDM benefits Power system planners are expected to predict the future and they have to provide decision makers with information that would facilitate making sound decisions. 13

14 ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS Comparison of System Cost with CO 2 Emissions 14

15 WHY RENEWABLE ENERGY? Maximum use of Indigenous resources to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. Global Climate Change Concerns. CONVENTIONAL OR NON CONVENTIONAL? Conventional Resources Already almost exploited (Major Hydro) Non-Conventional Resources To be exploited and utilized (Wind, Solar, Mini hydro,biomass & Other) 15

16 Facilitation for SPPA s and Net Metered Systems CEB has reinforced its transmission network to absorb more renewable energy implementing several key Transmission Projects such as : (i) Clean Energy & Access Improvement Project - 9 Nos. Grid Substation Augmentation Project (Cost USD 25.4 million) under ADB & GOSL funds (ii) Construction of four new grid substations to absorb renewable energy (Cost USD 37.8 million) under AFD funds.

17 NET METERING SCHEMES Capacity limit on schemes based on Net Metering has been increased from 42kVA to 1000kVA Net metering based schemes in Colombo City Area Number of Net Metering schemes Total Capacity (kw) North Area South Area East Area West Area Total

18 PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE - NCRE SPPA Signed NCRE Projects NCRE Technology No of Projects Capacity (MW) 1 Mini Hydro Power Biomass - Agricultural & Industrial 2 Waste Biomass - Dendro Power Solar Power Wind Power Total

19 MAJOR RENEWABLE PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE Plant Present Status Year of Operation 120MW Uma Oya Under Construction MW Broadlands Under Construction MW Moragolla Detail Design completed MW Gin Ganga Prefeasibility being carried out x200 MW Pump Storage Prefeasibility being carried out MW Seethawaka Mannar Wind Park Development Prefeasibility completed Feasibility study being carried out 2018

20 MAJOR THERMAL PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE Plant Present Status Year of Operation 2 x 250 MW Coal Power Plant at Sampoor 2 x 300MW High Efficient Eco Friendly Coal Power Plant at Trincomalee Construction to be started Feasibility study being carried 2022 out.

21 FUTURE OPTIONS-CONVENTIONAL GENERATION Introduction of LNG Power Generation to Sri Lanka Feasibility of Introduction of LNG in Sri Lanka is being carried out with the financial assistance from Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) considering use of LNG in Long Term Power Generation and other sectors. HVDC Link Between Sri Lanka and India Technical and Economical feasibility studies are carried out between CEB and Power Grid India to interconnect two Networks by DC link. Project to be expedite as soon as the completion of the Feasibility Studies. Nuclear Resources and Introduction of Nuclear Power Generation Atomic Energy Authority, CEB and GSMB having Technical Corporation with IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) to Identify the availability of Nuclear Resources (Uranium/Thorium) & Uranium Mineralization and feasibility of Nuclear Power Plant Site in Sri Lanka. 21

22 Typical Daily Generation Energy Mix Demand(MW) :30 01:30 02:30 03:30 04:30 05:30 06:30 07:30 08:30 09:30 10:30 11:30 12:30 13:30 14:30 15:30 16:30 17:30 18:30 19:30 20:30 21:30 22:30 23:30 WIND Hydro KPS GTs KPS GT 07 AES KCCP West Coast Asia Power Lakdanavi ACE-Matara ACE - Horana ACE- Embilipitiya Barge Heladhanavi Sapu Old Sapu Ext. Coal_Puttalum

23 CHALLENGES & ISSUES Restrictions imposed by Grid Utilization of Hydro potential in an optimal manner. Cater the 100% electrification target by 2015 and average electricity energy demand increase of 5.0% per annum during the next 25 years with least cost generation options. Improve the efficiency of the base load plants such as Coal due to the off-peak restrictions. Absorption of more share of indigenous energy resources (NCRE). Utilization of Natural Gas potential in Sri Lanka or diversify the fuel option to LNG. Providing Cost reflective tariff instead of present Feed in tariff for NCRE. 23

24 CHALLENGES & ISSUES contd. Development of true potential at Mini Hydro sites without restricting to the value in the SPPA agreement. Adopting Climate Change Policies and other externalities. Obtaining finances for the development of major thermal plants based on fossil fuels. Circumventing the 10MW rating basis on SPPA feed in tariff by clustering 10MW Projects by a single developer defeating the basis of SPPA. 24

25 HOW TO OVERCOME CHALLENGES Following Internationally acceptable Planning Process. Liaise with relevant Ministries, Institutes and major stakeholders. Getting assistance from International Agencies to share their experiences. Working with International Agencies to obtain Climate Change Finances for the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA). Introduce appropriate technologies to the network, to fill the valley of the Load curve and to enhance efficiencies of the base load plants and the absorption of more variable NCRE in to the system. (Eg. Pump Storage PP, Battery) Introducing Power Curtailment philosophies when operating Wind Parks by introducing new tariff schemes. Development of cost reflective tariff scheme for the future 25

26 FEED IN VS COST REFLECTIVE TARIFF PRESENT NCRE TARIFF STRUCTURE 26

27 FEED IN AND COST REFLECTIVE TARIFF contd COMPARISON OF COST REFLECTIVE TARIFF BASED ON SIMILAR CAPITAL AND O & M COST STRUCTURE Wind Biomass Feed in Tariff Around 20 32% Plant factor Around 25 32% Plant factor Cost Reflective tariff Around 12 30% Plant factor Around 18 80% Plant factor 27

28 CONSTRAINTS Off-Peak Limitations Transmission Network Limitations Un availability of Resource Potential Study in Sri Lanka RENEWABLE ENERGY MASTER PLAN The Preparation of The Renewable Energy Development Master Plan of Sri Lanka is initiated to identify the potentials and constraints on NCRE absorption. Master Plan is being prepared by CEB under the assistance of ADB funds. OUTCOME OF THE STUDY WILL BE DUE IN OCTORBER

29 WAY FORWARD Develop comprehensive Renewable Energy Master Plan in par with Long Term Generation Expansion Plan. Wind Development Master Plan for the Mannar District. Develop initial 100MW Wind Farm identified in the Mannar Island by year 2018, out of potential development of 375MW to enhance the Renewable Energy Portion of Country s Energy Mix. Timely implementation of the Major Thermal/ Renewable and NCRE Power Plants identified in the LTGEP

30 THANK YOU

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