ESF RESEARCH. Federal Regulations and Tax Credits Support Diesel and Natural Gas Vehicle Adoption. Policy Brief. North America.

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1 ENERGY SOLUTIONS FORUM INC. North America Fossil Fuels Oil & Gas Federal Regulations and Tax Credits Support Diesel and Natural Gas Vehicle Adoption ESF RESEARCH May 12, 2014 Policy Brief Erin Carson Senior Policy Analyst Eric Davis Research Manager Despite the recent surge in domestic crude oil and natural gas production, diesel-fueled passenger vehicles and natural gas-fueled fleet vehicles still face challenges in achieving large-scale adoption. Overview Diesel-fueled vehicles provide an option for manufacturers to meet Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) emissions standards and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration average fuelefficiency standards of 54.5 miles per gallon by model year 2025 for passenger car and light-duty vehicles. Natural gas-fueled fleet vehicles delivery trucks, buses, and heavy-duty vehicles are gaining traction with significant domestic fuel supplies and centralized infrastructure requirements. To further incentivize natural gas-fueled vehicle adoption, President Obama s 2015 budget proposal includes a liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuel excise tax reduction from 24.3 cents per gallon to 14.1 cents per gallon to achieve diesel fuel excise tax parity. In addition, the budget proposal includes a $25,000 and $40,000 tax credit for medium- and heavy-duty alternative fuel commercial vehicles. Key Takeaways: Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards require new passenger car and light-duty truck models have an average fuel economy of 54.5 mpg or greater by 2025 The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 requires federal agencies to reduce petroleum use by 20 percent and increase annual average alternative fuel use by 10 percent by 2015 from 2005 levels Fleet vehicles serve as the first natural gasfueled vehicle market, with proposed tax breaks furthering market attractiveness Companies Mentioned: Audi BMW General Motors Mercedes-Benz Volkswagen This report is for industry information only and we make no investment recommendations whatsoever with respect to any of the companies cited, mentioned, or discussed herein. Please refer to the end of this report for analyst certification(s) and other important disclosures.

2 Miles Per Gallon ESF Research Fossil Fuels Alternative Fuel Use Beginnings: Legislation and Culture Gasoline is America s base transportation fuel, but for decades, the U.S. Federal government has pursued policy to diversify its fuel sources. Two options, natural gas and diesel, are being reconsidered in legislation and public opinion as supplements to hybrid, electric, and biodiesel technologies. Diesel has been reconsidered as a viable option to meet domestic fuel efficiency goals, as diesel-powered vehicles can be 30 to 35 percent more fuel-efficient than similarsized gasoline-powered engines. Similarly, natural gas-fueled vehicles are an option to meet vehicle emissions standards, as this fuel burns cleaner due to its lower carbon content compared to gasoline and diesel. The Energy Policy Conservation Act of 1975 was the first piece of legislation to promote vehicle fuel efficiency technologies by establishing Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. Finalized in August 2012, the most recent CAFE standards require new passenger car and light-duty truck (under 8,500 lbs) models to have an average fuel economy of 54.5 mpg or greater by nearly double the current average fuel economy of cars nationwide. The standards are a joint effort of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to improve fuel efficiency and reduce vehicle emissions. Figure 1 Vehicle Fuel Efficiency (CAFE) Requirements by Year Passenger Cars Light-Duty Trucks Source: DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center 2014 Energy Solutions Forum Inc. All rights reserved. 2

3 Horsepower MPG ESF Research Fossil Fuels Figure 2 Power and Efficiency of the Average U.S. Light Duty Vehicles HP MPG Source: DOE Alternative Fuel Data Center Aligning with NHTSA CAFE standards and building upon current EPA vehicle emissions standards under the Clean Air Act, EPA Tier 3 standards aim to significantly reduce vehicles emissions from model year 2017 passenger cars, light-duty trucks, mediumduty passenger vehicles, and some heavy-duty vehicles. In addition, the standards will reduce gasoline sulfur content requirements from 30 parts per million (ppm) to 10 ppm beginning in Although there is wide-scale support for the standards, proponents admit there is still work to be done prior to the 2017 implementation. Figure 3 Estimated Emission Reductions from Tier 3 Standards (annual short-tons) Tons Percent of Onroad Inventory Tons Percent of Onroad Inventory NOx 264,369 10% 328,509 25% VOC 47,504 3% 167,591 16% CO 278,879 2% 3,458,041 24% Direct PM2, % 7,892 10% Benzene 1,916 6% 4,762 26% SO2 14,813 56% 12,399 56% 1,3-Butadiene 257 5% % Formaldehyde 513 2% 1,277 10% Acetaldehyde 600 3% 2,067 21% Acrolein 40 3% % Ethanol 2,704 2% 19,950 16% Source: EPA Natural Gas Natural Gas Adoption Hinges on Addressing Infrastructure Limitations Much of the lack of natural gas vehicles in the U.S. is because the infrastructure to support large amount of personal natural gas vehicles is not developed and would be expensive to build. Natural gas vehicles currently available to U.S. customers fall into two categories: Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles (CNGVs) and Liquefied Natural Gas Vehicles (LNGVs) Energy Solutions Forum Inc. All rights reserved. 3

4 ESF Research Fossil Fuels The main difference between these two vehicle types is that CNG vehicles store natural gas under intense pressure in its gaseous form, while LNG vehicles store super-chilled liquid natural gas in a thermos-like vessel inside the vehicle. CNG vehicles are easier to produce, however LNG vehicles can store more fuel and go further, but are more expensive and inhibited by the complexity of their infrastructure, storage tanks, and safety regulations. NGV adoption in the U.S. is still very limited, despite natural gas price deflation and natural gas vehicle technology advancements that allow similar fuel economy ratings to gas or diesel counterparts. Although prices for both LNG and CNG compare favorably to gasoline and diesel, natural gas is difficult to transport, store, and distribute; requiring direct access to the natural gas pipeline network or facilities capable of holding compressed or super-cooled liquid gas. As a result, constructing and retrofitting stations to supply CNG or LNG can be an expensive undertaking. Previous studies have estimated that for natural gas to be convenient for widespread adoption of private, light-duty NGVs, between 15 to 20 percent of existing fuel stations would need to be equipped. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC), at present there are 705 public CNG stations and 54 public LNG stations, compared to more than 150,000 traditional fueling stations. NGVs have had more success as fleet and heavy duty vehicles for purposes such as delivery trucks and buses. NGV fleets are well-suited for this alternative fuel because vehicles return to the same place each night, where fueling and service facilities can be installed. Nonetheless, NGV fleets still face many challenges including limited maintenance experience with these systems, and limited vehicle choices. Widespread Diesel Use Based on Changes to Cost and Availability Despite various challenges, diesel-powered car purchases are increasing. According to a 2013 Diesel Technology Forum report, clean diesel car registrations increased by 24.3 percent in the U.S. from 2010 through Diesel manages to avoid many NGV pitfalls. Diesel is more widely available than natural gas, and is already a part of the national infrastructure. Yet, wide-scale adoption of diesel-powered passenger vehicles in the U.S. still faces many challenges. When consumers go to refuel, they will notice diesel prices consistently higher than gasoline. This simple observation may be enough to deter consumers from considering a diesel vehicle purchase. To promote diesel vehicles sales, more widespread consumer education on the fuel-efficiency benefits of diesel-powered vehicles must be established. Figure 4 National Average Gasoline and Diesel Prices as of May 11, 2014 Regular Mid Premium Diesel Current Avg $ $ $ $ Week Ago Avg $ $ $ $ Month Ago Avg $ $ $ $ Year Ago Avg $ $ $ $ Source: AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report In addition to higher prices at the pump, there are simply fewer diesel-powered cars available to the U.S. consumer. According to DOE, there are only 104 different models 2014 Energy Solutions Forum Inc. All rights reserved. 4

5 AFVs ESF Research Fossil Fuels of diesel passenger cars and sport utility vehicles (not including light trucks) from 2010 to 2015 available for sale in the U.S., with the majority offered by Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen. With the introduction of ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) or clean diesel, requirements for MY 2007 and later diesel vehicles, previous sulfur-heavy diesel emissions no longer exist, as ULSD releases 97 percent less sulfur than low sulfur diesel (LSD). Despite the various challenges posed to diesel-powered car purchases are increasing. According to a 2013 Diesel Technology Forum report, clean diesel car registrations increased by 24.3 percent in the U.S. from 2010 through Federal Laws Support Alternative Fleet Vehicle Adoption Federal support for alternative fuel fleets traces back through several decades of energy law, each extending and strengthening the programs. The Energy Policy Act (EPAct) of 1992 amended the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (1975), specifically defining alternative fuels and setting aggressive federal and state alternative-fuel fleet vehicle goals. There has been a push over the past decade to increase federal alternative fuel standards. The EPAct of 2005 and its subsequent legislation and regulation encourage the development of clean fuel technologies and infrastructure. The Act also allocated significant funds to the Diesel Truck and Fleet Modernization program: $20,000,000 for fiscal year $35,000,000 for fiscal year $45,000,000 for fiscal year Such sums as are necessary for each of fiscal years Following the EPAct of 2005, the nation s alternative-fuel federal fleet saw significant additions. However, as seen in figure 5, in 2008 this progress as the economic downturn slowed federal vehicle acquisitions, including alternative-fuel vehicles (AFVs). Figure 5 State Fleet EPAct AFV Acquisition History Fuel Provider State Source: DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center Closely following the EPAct of 2005, the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 amended sections of the National Energy Conservation Policy Act (NECPA) as well as standards for federal energy management. The EISA requires federal agencies to 2014 Energy Solutions Forum Inc. All rights reserved. 5

6 ESF Research Fossil Fuels reduce petroleum use 20 percent and increase annual average alternative fuel use by 10 percent by 2015 compared to a FY 2005 baseline. Building upon the EISA, Executive Order requires a reduction of petroleum consumption in agency fleets of 20 or more by 2 percent each year through FY President Obama s 2015 Budget Proposal Introduces New Tax Credits Released in March 2014, the Administration s FY 2015 budget proposal reintroduces the alternative-fuel tax credit, which expired for non-fuel-cell alternative fuel vehicles in The proposed tax credit offers: $25,000 for alternative-fuel vehicles weighing between 14,000 pounds and 26,000 pounds $40,000 for alternative-fuel vehicles weighing more than 26,000 pounds The tax credit is available to manufacturers with the option to transfer the credit to the dealer or end-use purchaser for vehicles to be placed in service at the beginning of 2015, and before the start of There is currently an excise tax of 24.3 cents per gallon placed on LNG used as highway motor fuels. To support LNG fuel market penetration, the budget proposal lowers the excise tax to 14.1 cents per gallon, beginning in The goal of this tax reduction is to reduce the LNG price per gallon below diesel prices to closer match the fuels on a price per energy-content basis. Next Steps to Industry Increased Consumer Options will Incentivize Use Supported by more stringent fuel economy standards, there exists a significant nearterm U.S. market opportunity for diesel-fueled cars. The main barrier to increased diesel car sales is the lack of consumer options. Currently, the primary domestic providers of these vehicles are European automakers such as Audi, BMW, Mercedes- Benz, and Volkswagen. Recognizing this opportunity, General Motors introduced in 2013 a diesel model of its popular Cruze to directly compete with the similar Volkswagen Jetta TDI. Domestic diesel-fueled passenger car sales will help automakers meet 54.5 mpg CAFE standards by 2025, however significant technology advances and market penetration is needed. Fleets delivery trucks, buses, and heavy-duty vehicles are the main market for LNG and CNG-fueled vehicles. City-centered delivery trucks and buses are well suited for natural gas-fueling, as they often return to a central fueling station after use, lowering the need for wide-scale infrastructure investments. Heavy-duty transport vehicles also offer an attractive market for LNG and CNG-fueled vehicles, as strategically-placed fueling stations have are being installed across the U.S. to meet refueling requirements. To incentivize natural gas-fueled vehicle adoption, President Obama s 2015 budget proposal includes a LNG fuel excise tax reduction from 24.3 cents per gallon to 14.1 cents per gallon to achieve diesel fuel excise tax parity. In addition, the budget proposal includes a $25,000 and $40,000 tax credit for medium- and heavy-duty alternative fuel commercial vehicles, respectively. The combination of increased domestic natural gas production and proposed tax breaks create an attractive market for LNG and CNGfueled fleet vehicles Energy Solutions Forum Inc. All rights reserved. 6

7 ESF Research Fossil Fuels Disclosures Section RESEARCH RISKS Regulatory and Legislative agendas are subject to change. AUTHOR CERTIFICATION By issuing this report, Erin Carson as author(s) of this report, certifies that recommendations or opinions that may be expressed herein accurately reflect her/his personal views and no part of the author s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This report is for industry information only and we make no investment recommendations whatsoever with respect to any of the companies cited, mentioned, or discussed herein. Energy Solutions Forum Inc. is not a broker-dealer or registered investment advisor. Information contained herein has been derived from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and does not purport to be a complete analysis of the company, industry or security involved in this report. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The information herein is for persons residing in the United States only and is not intended for any person in any other jurisdiction. This report has been prepared for the general use of the wholesale clients of the Energy Solutions Forum Inc. and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient you must not use or disclose the information in this report in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return to and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any s or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. In preparing this report, we did not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before making an investment decision on the basis of this (or any) report, you need to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. No member of Energy Solutions Forum Inc. accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this report and/or further communication in relation to this report. For additional information, please visit Copyright 2014 Energy Solutions Forum Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this report may be redistributed or copied in any form without the prior written consent of Energy Solutions Forum Inc Energy Solutions Forum Inc. All rights reserved. 7

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