# Chapter Eight: Cause and

Save this PDF as:

Size: px
Start display at page:

## Transcription

1 Chapter Eight: Cause and Effect Reasoning What is Causality? When examining events, people naturally seek to explain why things happened. This search often results in cause and effect reasoning, which asserts or denies that one thing causes another, or that one thing is caused by another. On the LSAT, cause and effect reasoning appears in many Logical Reasoning problems, often in the conclusion where the author mistakenly claims that one event causes another. For example: Last week IBM announced a quarterly deficit and the stock market dropped 10 points. Thus, IBM s announcement must have caused the drop. Like the above conclusion, most causal conclusions are flawed because there can be alternate explanations for the stated relationship: another cause could account for the effect; a third event could have caused both the stated cause and effect; the situation may in fact be reversed; the events may be related but not causally; or the entire occurrence could be the result of chance. As mentioned before, this is a book about LSAT logic, not general philosophy. Therefore, we will not go into an analysis of David Hume s Inquiry or Mill s Methods (both of which address causality) because although those discussions are interesting, they do not apply to the LSAT. In short, causality occurs when one event is said to make another occur. The cause is the event that makes the other occur; the effect is the event that follows from the cause. By definition, the cause must occur before the effect, and the cause is the activator or ignitor in the relationship. The effect always happens at some point in time after the cause. How to Recognize Causality A cause and effect relationship has a signature characteristic the cause makes the effect happen. Thus, there is an identifiable type of expression used to indicate that a causal relationship is present. The list on the following page contains a number of the phrases used by the makers of the LSAT to introduce causality, and you should be on the lookout for those when reading Logical Reasoning stimuli. 199

2 The following terms often introduce a cause and effect relationship: Be sure to memorize this list! caused by because of responsible for reason for leads to induced by promoted by determined by produced by product of played a role in was a factor in is an effect of Because of the variety of the English language, there are many alternate phrases that can introduce causality. However, those phrases would all have the similar characteristic of suggesting that one event made another occur. The Difference Between Causality and Conditionality Many people confuse causal reasoning with conditional reasoning, but the two are entirely separate! Here are several key differences: Knowing the difference between conditionality and causality can help you determine which one is present when none of the usual indicator words appear. 1. The chronology of the two events can differ. In cause and effect statements there is an implied temporal relationship: the cause must happen first and the effect must happen at some point in time after the cause. In sufficient and necessary statements there is no implied temporal relationship: the sufficient condition can happen before, at the same time, or after the necessary condition. 2. The connection between the events is different. In cause and effect statements the events are related in a direct way: She swerved to avoid hitting the dog and that caused her to hit the tree. The cause physically makes the effect happen. In conditional statements the sufficient and necessary conditions are often related directly, but they do not have to be: Before the war can end, I must eat this ice cream cone. The sufficient condition does not make the necessary condition happen, it just indicates that it must occur. 3. The language used to introduce the statements is different. 200 The PowerScore LSAT Logical Reasoning Bible

3 Because of item 2, the words that introduce each type of relationship are very different. Causal indicators are active, almost powerful words, whereas most conditional indicators do not possess those traits. Causality in the Conclusion versus Causality in the Premises Causal statements can be found in the premise or conclusion of an argument. If the causal statement is the conclusion, then the reasoning is flawed. If the causal statement is the premise, then the argument may be flawed, but not because of the causal statement. Because of this difference, one of the critical issues in determining whether flawed causal reasoning is present is identifying where in the argument the causal assertion is made. The classic mistaken cause and effect reasoning we will refer to throughout this book occurs when a causal assertion is made in the conclusion, or the conclusion presumes a causal relationship. Let us examine the difference between an argument with a causal premise and one with a casual conclusion. This is an argument with a causal conclusion: Conclusion: In North America, people drink a lot of milk. There is a high frequency of cancer in North America. Therefore, drinking milk causes cancer. In the LSAT world, when a cause and effect statement appears as the conclusion, the conclusion is flawed. In the real world that may not be the case because a preponderance of evidence can be gathered or visual evidence can be used to prove a relationship. In this case, the author takes two events that occur together and concludes that one causes the other. This conclusion is in error for the reasons discussed on the first page of this chapter. If a causal claim is made in the premises, however, then no causal reasoning error exists in the argument (of course, the argument may be flawed in other ways). As mentioned previously, the makers of the LSAT tend to allow premises to go unchallenged (they are more concerned with the reasoning that follows from a premise) and it is considered acceptable for an author to begin his argument by stating a causal relationship and then continuing from there: Conclusion: Drinking milk causes cancer. The residents of North America drink a lot of milk. Therefore, in North America there is a high frequency of cancer among the residents. The second example is considered valid reasoning because the author takes a causal principle and follows it to its logical conclusion. Generally, causal reasoning occurs in a format similar to the first example, but there are LSAT problems similar to the second example. 201

4 Situations That Can Lead to Errors of Causality There are two scenarios that tend to lead to causal conclusions in Logical Reasoning questions: 1. One event occurs before another If you have taken a logic course, you will recognize the first scenario produces the Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy. When one event occurs before another event, many people fall into the trap of assuming that the first event caused the second event. This does not have to be the case, as shown by the following famous example: Every morning the rooster crows before the sun rises. Hence, the rooster must cause the sun to rise. The example contains a ludicrous conclusion, and shows why it is dangerous to simply assume that the first event must have caused the second event. 2. Two (or more) events occur at the same time In this example, the two events could simply be correlated. A positive correlation is a relationship where the two values move together. A negative correlation is one where the two values move in opposite directions, such as with age and eyesight (the older you get, the worse your eyesight gets). When two events occur simultaneously, many people assume that one event caused the other. While one event could have caused the other, the two events could be the result of a third event, or the two events could simply be correlated but one does not cause the other. The following example shows how a third event can cause both events: The consumption of ice cream has been found to correlate with the murder rate. Therefore, consuming ice cream must cause one to be more likely to commit murder. As you might imagine, the conclusion of the example does not have to be true (yes, go ahead and eat that Ben and Jerry s!), and the two events can be explained as the effects of a single cause: hot weather. When the weather is warmer, ice cream consumption and the murder rate tend to rise (this example is actually true, especially for large cities). 202 The PowerScore LSAT Logical Reasoning Bible

5 The Central Assumption of Causal Conclusions Understanding the assumption that is at the heart of a causal conclusion is essential to knowing why certain answers will be correct or incorrect. Most students assume that the LSAT makes basic assumptions that are similar to the real world; this is untrue and is a dangerous mistake to make. When we discuss causality in the real world, there is an inherent understanding that a given cause is just one possible cause of the effect, and that there are other causes that could also produce the same effect. This is reasonable because we have the ability to observe a variety of cause and effect scenarios, and experience shows us that different actions can have the same result. The makers of the LSAT do not think this way. When an LSAT speaker concludes that one occurrence caused another, that speaker also assumes that the stated cause is the only possible cause of the effect and that consequently the stated cause will always produce the effect. This assumption is incredibly extreme and farreaching, and often leads to surprising answer choices that would appear incorrect unless you understand this assumption. Consider the following example: Understanding this assumption is absolutely critical to your LSAT success. The makers of the test will closely examine your knowledge of this idea, especially in Strengthen and Weaken questions. Conclusion: Average temperatures are higher at the equator than in any other area. Individuals living at or near the equator tend to have lower per-capita incomes than individuals living elsewhere. Therefore, higher average temperatures cause lower percapita incomes. This argument is a classic flawed causal argument wherein two premises with a basic connection (living at the equator) are used as the basis of a conclusion that states that the connection is such that one of the elements actually makes the other occur. The conclusion is flawed because it is not necessary that the one element caused the other to occur: the two could simply be correlated in some way or the connection could be random. In the real world, we would tend to look at an argument like the one above and think that while the conclusion is possible, there are also other things that could cause the lower per-capita income of individuals residing at or near the equator, such as a lack of natural resources. This is not how speakers on the LSAT view the relationship. When an LSAT speaker makes an argument like the one above, he or she believes that the only cause is the one stated in the conclusion and that there are no other causes that can create that particular effect. Why is this the case? Because for an LSAT speaker to come to that conclusion, he or she must have weighed and considered every possible alternative and then 203

6 rejected each one. Otherwise, why would the speaker draw the given conclusion? In the final analysis, to say that higher average temperatures cause lower per-capita incomes the speaker must also believe that nothing else could be the cause of lower per-capita incomes. Answer choices that otherwise appear irrelevant will suddenly be obviously correct when you understand the central causal assumption. Stimuli containing causal arguments are often followed by Weaken, Strengthen, Assumption, or Flaw questions. Thus, in every argument with a causal conclusion that appears on the LSAT, the speaker believes that the stated cause is in fact the only cause and all other theoretically possible causes are not, in fact, actual causes. This is an incredibly powerful assumption, and the results of this assumption are most evident in Weaken, Strengthen, and Assumption questions. We will discuss this effect on Strengthen and Assumption questions in a later chapter. Following is brief analysis of the effect of this assumption on Weaken questions. How to Attack a Causal Conclusion Whenever you identify a causal relationship in the conclusion of an LSAT problem, immediately prepare to either weaken or strengthen the argument. Attacking a cause and effect relationship in Weaken questions almost always consists of performing one of the following tasks: A. Find an alternate cause for the stated effect Because the author believes there is only one cause, identifying another cause weakens the conclusion. B. Show that even when the cause occurs, the effect does not occur This type of answer often appears in the form of a counterexample. Because the author believes that the cause always produces the effect, any scenario where the cause occurs and the effect does not weakens the conclusion. C. Show that although the effect occurs, the cause did not occur This type of answer often appears in the form of a counterexample. Because the author believes that the effect is always produced by the same cause, any scenario where the effect occurs and the cause does not weakens the conclusion. D. Show that the stated relationship is reversed Because the author believes that the cause and effect relationship is correctly stated, showing that the relationship is backwards (the claimed effect is actually the cause of the claimed cause) undermines the conclusion. 204 The PowerScore LSAT Logical Reasoning Bible

7 E. Show that a statistical problem exists with the data used to make the causal statement If the data used to make a causal statement is in error, then the validity of the causal claim is in question. Diagramming Causality Like conditional statements, causal statements can be quickly and easily represented by an arrow diagram. However, because causal and conditional diagrams represent entirely different relationships, we use designators ( C for cause and E for effect) above the terms when diagramming (and, in corresponding fashion, we use S for sufficient and N for necessary above the terms when diagramming conditional statements). We use these designators in the book to make the meaning of the diagram clear. During the LSAT, students should not use the designators (they just use the arrow diagram) because they want to go as fast as possible and they can remember if they have a conditional or causal argument while completing the problem. Here is an example of a causal diagram: Statement: Smoking causes cancer. S = smoking C = cancer C E S C Although the diagram looks the same as a conditional diagram, the two are different for the reasons described in The Difference Between Causality and Conditionality section earlier in this chapter. During the LSAT, the choice to create an arrow diagram for a causal statement is yours. 205

### The Fallacy Detective

The Fallacy Detective A study guide To accompany the book by: Nathaniel Bluedorn & Hans Bluedorn 2009 edition 38 Lessons on How to Recognize Bad Reasoning Brought to you by Amy Shepley Of 2 How To Use

### A. Arguments are made up of statements, which can be either true or false. Which of the following are statements?

Critical Thinking University of St Andrews March 2007 Bullet point material is not on the students copies. Feel free to use the material as you see fit, depending on timing, ability, enthusiasm etc. Good

### Announcements. Homework #1 is due Tuesday of next week (Tuesday, January 21 st ). Sections start meeting this week. Check the syllabus for locations!

Announcements Homework #1 is due Tuesday of next week (Tuesday, January 21 st ). Sections start meeting this week. Check the syllabus for locations! Political Science 15 Lecture 3: Determining Causality

### Cosmological Arguments for the Existence of God S. Clarke

Cosmological Arguments for the Existence of God S. Clarke [Modified Fall 2009] 1. Large class of arguments. Sometimes they get very complex, as in Clarke s argument, but the basic idea is simple. Lets

### CRITICAL THINKING. Induction v Deduction. Enumerative Induction and Inductive Generalization Sample Size Representativeness Mean, Median, Mode,

CRITICAL THINKING INDUCTIVE REASONING LECTURE PROFESSOR JULIE YOO Induction v Deduction Enumerative Induction and Inductive Generalization Sample Size Representativeness Mean, Median, Mode, Analogical

### The Cosmological Argument

The Cosmological Argument Revision Booklet Name: The Cosmological Argument The argument is based on the claim that everything existing in the universe exists because it was caused by something else; that

### The Cosmological Argument

A quick overview An a posteriori argument Everything that exists in the universe exists because it was caused by something else. That something was caused by something else It is necessary for something

### TRANSCRIPT: In this lecture, we will talk about both theoretical and applied concepts related to hypothesis testing.

This is Dr. Chumney. The focus of this lecture is hypothesis testing both what it is, how hypothesis tests are used, and how to conduct hypothesis tests. 1 In this lecture, we will talk about both theoretical

### P1. All of the students will understand validity P2. You are one of the students -------------------- C. You will understand validity

Validity Philosophy 130 O Rourke I. The Data A. Here are examples of arguments that are valid: P1. If I am in my office, my lights are on P2. I am in my office C. My lights are on P1. He is either in class

### PHLA The Problem of Induction

Knowledge versus mere justified belief Knowledge implies truth Justified belief does not imply truth Knowledge implies the impossibility of error Justified belief does not imply impossibility of error

### CHANCE ENCOUNTERS. Making Sense of Hypothesis Tests. Howard Fincher. Learning Development Tutor. Upgrade Study Advice Service

CHANCE ENCOUNTERS Making Sense of Hypothesis Tests Howard Fincher Learning Development Tutor Upgrade Study Advice Service Oxford Brookes University Howard Fincher 2008 PREFACE This guide has a restricted

### The aspect of the data that we want to describe/measure is the degree of linear relationship between and The statistic r describes/measures the degree

PS 511: Advanced Statistics for Psychological and Behavioral Research 1 Both examine linear (straight line) relationships Correlation works with a pair of scores One score on each of two variables ( and

### IS HUME S ACCOUNT SCEPTICAL?

Michael Lacewing Hume on knowledge HUME S FORK Empiricism denies that we can know anything about how the world outside our own minds is without relying on sense experience. In IV, Hume argues that we can

### Think like a scientist: Student reading / activity guide

Think like a scientist: Student reading / activity guide Students: As you read the information below, underline important facts or definitions with your pencil or highlighter so you can find it for the

Business Research Process BUS 230: Business Research and Communication 1 1.1 Goals and Learning Objectives Goals and Learning Objectives Goals of this chapter: Learn what research is. Learn why businesses

### Response to Critiques of Mortgage Discrimination and FHA Loan Performance

A Response to Comments Response to Critiques of Mortgage Discrimination and FHA Loan Performance James A. Berkovec Glenn B. Canner Stuart A. Gabriel Timothy H. Hannan Abstract This response discusses the

### Implications for the Turing Test in Modern Times. Since Alan Turing wrote the paper Computing Machinery and Intelligence, in which

Ed Cottrell Philosophy 103 February 14, 1998 Implications for the Turing Test in Modern Times Since Alan Turing wrote the paper Computing Machinery and Intelligence, in which he presented the now famous

### Time Travel Simulation Resolves Grandfather Paradox

(noun) A correlation is a connection or relationship between two or more things that is not caused by chance Correlation is something that scientists are often trying to show is there a correlation between

### Chapter 2 Quantitative, Qualitative, and Mixed Research

1 Chapter 2 Quantitative, Qualitative, and Mixed Research This chapter is our introduction to the three research methodology paradigms. A paradigm is a perspective based on a set of assumptions, concepts,

### Managerial Economics Prof. Trupti Mishra S.J.M School of Management Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Lecture 9 Theory of Demand (Contd.

Managerial Economics Prof. Trupti Mishra S.J.M School of Management Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay Lecture 9 Theory of Demand (Contd.) Welcome to the second session of module two; module two talks

### Relative Risk, Odds, and Fisher s exact test

Relative Risk, Odds, and Fisher s exact test I) Relative Risk A) Simply, relative risk is the ratio of p 1 / p 2. For instance, suppose we wanted to take another look at our Seat belt safety data from

### Chapter 2 Thinking Like an Economist

Chapter 2 Thinking Like an Economist Review Questions 1.. In what way are economists at a disadvantage relative to, say, physicists in applying the scientific method? How do economists deal with this problem?

### The Philosophy of Hypothesis Testing, Questions and Answers 2006 Samuel L. Baker

HYPOTHESIS TESTING PHILOSOPHY 1 The Philosophy of Hypothesis Testing, Questions and Answers 2006 Samuel L. Baker Question: So I'm hypothesis testing. What's the hypothesis I'm testing? Answer: When you're

### The three tests of mental ability you will be asked to do at the AOSB are:

Introduction The Army requires that candidates for Officer Training have certain mental abilities. These mental abilities are measured by three tests that are described in this booklet. It is essential

### Unit: F502: Analysing and Evaluating Argument: High banded

Critical Thinking Unit: F502: Analysing and Evaluating Argument: High banded candidate style answer. Introduction OCR has produced these candidate style answers to support teachers in interpreting the

### Correct Resolution of the Twin Paradox

Correct Resolution of the Twin Paradox Michael Huemer In the following, I explain the Twin Paradox, which is supposed to be a paradoxical consequence of the Special Theory of Relativity (STR). I give the

### Everything You Know about Managing the Sales Funnel is Wrong

Everything You Know about Managing the Sales Funnel is Wrong A Market-Partners Exclusive Whitepaper The sales funnel has been the mainstay of selling since the first lead was identified and progressed

### Critical-Thinking Skills

Critical-Thinking Skills Ethics and Computing Chapter 2 Summer 2001 CSE 4317: Critical Thinking 1 Motivation Good critical-thinking skills are essential for clearer thinking, better decision-making, and

### Fallacies are deceptive errors of thinking.

Fallacies are deceptive errors of thinking. A good argument should: 1. be deductively valid (or inductively strong) and have all true premises; 2. have its validity and truth-of-premises be as evident

### I. Counterexamples to the DN account of explanation:

I. Counterexamples to the DN account of explanation: A. Common cause examples: Whenever a barometer drops by...millibars a storm occurs. My barometer has dropped by...millibars. A storm occurs. Anyone

### Skepticism about the external world & the problem of other minds

Skepticism about the external world & the problem of other minds So far in this course we have, broadly speaking, discussed two different sorts of issues: issues connected with the nature of persons (a

### Does NATO s Article V Genuinely Protect Its Members?

Does NATO s Article V Genuinely Protect Its Members? NATO has been the most successful alliance of history. We repeat this truth quite frequently, especially now that we celebrate 60 years of its successful

### Discrete Mathematics and Probability Theory Fall 2009 Satish Rao, David Tse Note 2

CS 70 Discrete Mathematics and Probability Theory Fall 2009 Satish Rao, David Tse Note 2 Proofs Intuitively, the concept of proof should already be familiar We all like to assert things, and few of us

### 7.5 Conditional Probability; Independent Events

7.5 Conditional Probability; Independent Events Conditional Probability Example 1. Suppose there are two boxes, A and B containing some red and blue stones. The following table gives the number of stones

### Inductive Reasoning Page 1 of 7. Inductive Reasoning

Inductive Reasoning Page 1 of 7 Inductive Reasoning We learned that valid deductive thinking begins with at least one universal premise and leads to a conclusion that is believed to be contained in the

### Cognitive Abilities Test Practice Activities. Teacher Guide. Form 7. Nonverbal Tests. Level. Cog

Cognitive Abilities Test Practice Activities Teacher Guide Form 7 Nonverbal Tests Level 9 Cog Test 7: Figure Matrices, Levels 9 12 Part 1: Overview of Figure Matrices An analogy draws parallels between

### Logical Fallacies. Common Mistakes in Reasoning

Logical Fallacies Common Mistakes in Reasoning Fallacy A fallacy is an error in reasoning. Some fallacies are so common that they have names of their own. This workshop will examine the most common fallacies,

### 6/15/2005 7:54 PM. Affirmative Action s Affirmative Actions: A Reply to Sander

Reply Affirmative Action s Affirmative Actions: A Reply to Sander Daniel E. Ho I am grateful to Professor Sander for his interest in my work and his willingness to pursue a valid answer to the critical

### 11 PERFECT COMPETITION. Chapt er. Key Concepts. What is Perfect Competition?

Chapt er 11 PERFECT COMPETITION Key Concepts What is Perfect Competition? Perfect competition is an industry with many firms, each selling an identical good; many buyers; no restrictions on entry into

### CHAPTER 2. Inequalities

CHAPTER 2 Inequalities In this section we add the axioms describe the behavior of inequalities (the order axioms) to the list of axioms begun in Chapter 1. A thorough mastery of this section is essential

### CRITICAL THINKING: THE VERY BASICS - NARRATION Dona Warren, Philosophy Department, The University of Wisconsin Stevens Point

1 CRITICAL THINKING: THE VERY BASICS - NARRATION Dona Warren, Philosophy Department, The University of Wisconsin Stevens Point Critical Thinking Hello and welcome to Critical Thinking, the Very Basics,

Scheduling is Not about Chronology; it s about Logic! Table of Contents Intro 1 Current Issues in Scheduling 2 Activity Sequencing versus Determining Causality 3 Sequencing Relationships in the Wiki-Website

### , for x = 0, 1, 2, 3,... (4.1) (1 + 1/n) n = 2.71828... b x /x! = e b, x=0

Chapter 4 The Poisson Distribution 4.1 The Fish Distribution? The Poisson distribution is named after Simeon-Denis Poisson (1781 1840). In addition, poisson is French for fish. In this chapter we will

### Accountable Talk Toolkit

Accountable Talk Toolkit The Accountable Talk Toolkit provides resources for implementation, including what it looks like in the classroom, lesson examples, and scaffolds. The Toolkit entries come from

### 11 PERFECT COMPETITION. Chapter. Key Concepts. Perfectly Competitive Firm s Demand Curve

Chapter 11 PERFECT COMPETITION Key Concepts FIGURE 11.1 Perfectly Competitive Firm s Demand Curve Competition Perfect competition is an industry with many firms, each selling an identical good; many buyers;

### MAKING SENSE OF DATA Essentials series

MAKING SENSE OF DATA Essentials series CORRELATION AND REGRESSION Copyright by City of Bradford MDC Prerequisites Descriptive statistics Charts and graphs The normal distribution Surveys and sampling Correlation

### WHAT IS PHILOSOPHY? ARGUMENTATIO N. Intro to Philosophy, Summer 2011 Benjamin Visscher Hole IV

WHAT IS PHILOSOPHY? ARGUMENTATIO N Intro to Philosophy, Summer 2011 Benjamin Visscher Hole IV PHILOSOPHY CONSISTS IN CRITICAL ENGAGEMENT The philosophers we re reading have developed arguments to try to

### Last time we had arrived at the following provisional interpretation of Aquinas second way:

Aquinas Third Way Last time we had arrived at the following provisional interpretation of Aquinas second way: 1. 2. 3. 4. At least one thing has an efficient cause. Every causal chain must either be circular,

### Formulating Models of Simple Systems using. Vensim PLE. version 3.0B

Formulating Models of Simple Systems using Vensim PLE version 3.0B Professor Nelson Repenning System Dynamics Group MIT Sloan School of Management Cambridge, MA O2142 Edited by Laura Black, Farzana S.

### Independent samples t-test. Dr. Tom Pierce Radford University

Independent samples t-test Dr. Tom Pierce Radford University The logic behind drawing causal conclusions from experiments The sampling distribution of the difference between means The standard error of

### A New Middle East: Thoughts on a Deterrence Regime against a Nuclear Iran

A New Middle East: Thoughts on a Deterrence Regime against a Nuclear Iran Avner Golov Israel s primary concern regarding the interim deal signed between the world powers and Iran is that it has damaged

### Midterm Examination 1 with Solutions - Math 574, Frank Thorne Thursday, February 9, 2012

Midterm Examination 1 with Solutions - Math 574, Frank Thorne (thorne@math.sc.edu) Thursday, February 9, 2012 1. (3 points each) For each sentence below, say whether it is logically equivalent to the sentence

### Supply and Demand in the Market for Money: The Liquidity Preference Framework

APPENDIX 4 TO CHAPTER4 Supply and Demand in the Market for Money: The Liquidity Preference Framework Whereas the loanable funds framework determines the equilibrium interest rate using the supply of and

### Introduction. Directions

Introduction The purpose of this practice test is to prepare students for the Otis-Lennon School Ability Test (OLSAT) so that they will be familiar with the different types of questions that will appear

### LOGICAL FALLACIES. Common Mistakes in Weak Arguments

LOGICAL FALLACIES Common Mistakes in Weak Arguments Definition Logical fallacies are flaws in reasoning that lead to faulty, illogical statements. They are unreasonable argumentative tactics named for

### Chapter 25. Rational Expectations: Implications for Policy The Lucas Critique of Policy Evaluation

Chapter 25 Rational Expectations: Implications for Policy 25.1 The Lucas Critique of Policy Evaluation 1) Whether one views the activist policies of the 1960s and 1970s as destabilizing or believes the

### Science and Scientific Reasoning. Critical Thinking

Science and Scientific Reasoning Critical Thinking Some Common Myths About Science Science: What it is and what it is not Science and Technology Science is not the same as technology The goal of science

### John Locke. Of Words

John Locke Of Words overall thesis The meanings of words are mental entities, not concreta or abstracta. In Locke s terminology: words primarily signify ideas. Words in their primary or immediate Signification,

### Hypothesis Testing for Beginners

Hypothesis Testing for Beginners Michele Piffer LSE August, 2011 Michele Piffer (LSE) Hypothesis Testing for Beginners August, 2011 1 / 53 One year ago a friend asked me to put down some easy-to-read notes

### Mackie's treatment of miracles

International Journal for Philosophy of Religion 39:151-158 (June 1996) 9 1996 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands. Mackie's treatment of miracles RICHARD OTTE University of California

### Oral Defense of the Dissertation

Oral Defense of the Dissertation By Dr. Marilyn Simon Find this and many other dissertation guides and resources at www.dissertationrecipes.com Most universities require an oral defense of your dissertation

### A. Schedule: Reading, problem set #2, midterm. B. Problem set #1: Aim to have this for you by Thursday (but it could be Tuesday)

Lecture 5: Fallacies of Clarity Vagueness and Ambiguity Philosophy 130 September 23, 25 & 30, 2014 O Rourke I. Administrative A. Schedule: Reading, problem set #2, midterm B. Problem set #1: Aim to have

### Variables and Hypotheses

Variables and Hypotheses When asked what part of marketing research presents them with the most difficulty, marketing students often reply that the statistics do. Ask this same question of professional

### well as explain Dennett s position on the arguments of Turing and Searle.

Perspectives on Computer Intelligence Can computers think? In attempt to make sense of this question Alan Turing, John Searle and Daniel Dennett put fourth varying arguments in the discussion surrounding

### Philosophical argument

Michael Lacewing Philosophical argument At the heart of philosophy is philosophical argument. Arguments are different from assertions. Assertions are simply stated; arguments always involve giving reasons.

### The Optimal Sample Rate for Quality Audio

The Optimal Sample Rate for Quality Audio By Dan Lavry, Lavry Engineering Inc. May 3, 2012 Imagine that you and a friend were standing at the base of a lone hill in an otherwise flat plain, and you start

### Scientific Method & Statistical Reasoning

Scientific Method & Statistical Reasoning Paul Gribble http://www.gribblelab.org/stats/ Winter, 2016 MD Chapters 1 & 2 The idea of pure science Philosophical stances on science Historical review Gets you

### The Cosmological Argument

Cosmological Argument Page 1 of 5 The Cosmological Argument (A) Discuss the key features of the Cosmological Argument. The Cosmological Argument has several forms, but is fundamentally a proof for the

### Contents. Introduction Chapter Notes Rule Origin Drill Two Rule Inference Drill... 11

Contents Introduction Introduction... 1 Chapter One: Practice Drills Chapter Notes... 5 Rule Origin Drill... 6 Two Rule Inference Drill... 11 Linear Base Representation Diagramming Drill... 17 Conditional

### Using Appropriate Words in an Academic Essay

3 Using Appropriate Words in an Academic Essay 19 As you develop your essay, you need to think carefully about your choice of words. This is very important in academic essays. For example, you would not

### PHILOSOPHY 4360/5360 METAPHYSICS

PHILOSOPHY 4360/5360 METAPHYSICS Topic IV: The Nature of the Mind Arguments for (Persisting) Substance Dualism Argument 1: The Modal Argument from Personal Identity This first type of argument is advanced

### God and Reality. Arman Hovhannisyan

God and Reality Arman Hovhannisyan Metaphysics has done everything to involve God in the world of being. However, in case of considering Reality as being and nothingness, naturally, the metaphysical approach

### It is a market where current prices reflect/incorporate all available information.

ECMC49F Market Efficiency Hypothesis Practice Questions Date: Nov 15, 2005 [1] How to define an efficient market? It is a market where current prices reflect/incorporate all available information. [2]

### AP STATISTICS 2012 SCORING GUIDELINES

2012 SCORING GUIDELINES Question 4 Intent of Question The primary goal of this question was to assess students ability to identify, set up, perform, and interpret the results of an appropriate hypothesis

### DEMAND AND SUPPLY. Chapter. Markets and Prices. Demand. C) the price of a hot dog minus the price of a hamburger.

Chapter 3 DEMAND AND SUPPLY Markets and Prices Topic: Price and Opportunity Cost 1) A relative price is A) the slope of the demand curve B) the difference between one price and another C) the slope of

### Speaking Persuasively

1 Persuasive Speaking Chapter 19 Speaking Persuasively 2 Persuasive speaking goal is to change or reinforce the attitudes, beliefs, values, and/or behaviors of receivers Purpose of Persuasion 3 Proposition

### MEMORANDUM. Re: Technical input to the ACCC submission relationship between the regulatory asset base and the renewals annuity

MEMORANDUM To: Peter McGahan From: Jeff Balchin Director Date: 4 July 2008 Re: Technical input to the ACCC submission relationship between the regulatory asset base and the renewals annuity A. Introduction

### Hypothesis testing. c 2014, Jeffrey S. Simonoff 1

Hypothesis testing So far, we ve talked about inference from the point of estimation. We ve tried to answer questions like What is a good estimate for a typical value? or How much variability is there

### Chapter 21. More About Tests and Intervals. Copyright 2012, 2008, 2005 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 21 More About Tests and Intervals Copyright 2012, 2008, 2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Zero In on the Null Null hypotheses have special requirements. To perform a hypothesis test, the null must be

### def: An axiom is a statement that is assumed to be true, or in the case of a mathematical system, is used to specify the system.

Section 1.5 Methods of Proof 1.5.1 1.5 METHODS OF PROOF Some forms of argument ( valid ) never lead from correct statements to an incorrect. Some other forms of argument ( fallacies ) can lead from true

### Elaborate & Clarify. Support Ideas with Examples

Elaborate & Clarify Questions to Elaborate & Clarify Tell me more about Can you elaborate on That s true, but how And how can we connect that to What do you think about Why do you think that is? Opinion

### Book Review of Rosenhouse, The Monty Hall Problem. Leslie Burkholder 1

Book Review of Rosenhouse, The Monty Hall Problem Leslie Burkholder 1 The Monty Hall Problem, Jason Rosenhouse, New York, Oxford University Press, 2009, xii, 195 pp, US \$24.95, ISBN 978-0-19-5#6789-8 (Source

### Transitions between Paragraphs

Transitions between Paragraphs The Writing Lab D204d http://bellevuecollege.edu/asc/writing 425-564-2200 Sometimes an essay seems choppy, as if with each new topic sentence, the writer started the essay

### 1. The Scientific Method

1 1. The Scientific Method The distinctive characteristic of science is its methodology. Science is not just a body of knowledge, but knowledge assembled by the application of the scientific methodology.

### The Philosophical Importance of Mathematical Logic Bertrand Russell

The Philosophical Importance of Mathematical Logic Bertrand Russell IN SPEAKING OF "Mathematical logic", I use this word in a very broad sense. By it I understand the works of Cantor on transfinite numbers

### Nietzsche s perspectivism

Michael Lacewing Nietzsche s perspectivism PERSPECTIVISM In the opening sections of the book, Nietzsche repeatedly refers to perspectives. In the Preface, he says that perspectivity is the fundamental

### Design of the ALU Adder, Logic, and the Control Unit

Design of the ALU Adder, Logic, and the Control Unit This lecture will finish our look at the CPU and ALU of the computer. Remember: 1. The ALU performs the arithmetic and logic operations. 2. The control

### Computer climate models are the heart of the problem of global warming predictions.

COMPUTER CLIMATE MODELS Computer climate models are the heart of the problem of global warming predictions. By Dr. Timothy Ball Abstract Entire global energy and climate policies are based on the Reports

### Supply and Demand in the Market for Money: The Liquidity Preference Framework

APPENDIX 3 TO CHAPTER 4 Supply and Demand in the arket for oney: The Liquidity Preference Framework Whereas the loanable funds framework determines the equilibrium interest rate using the supply of and

### Is a Back Radiation Greenhouse Effect of 33 Kelvin Possible? Ross McLeod, Assoc. Diploma Health Surveying, B. Tech. (Engineering) May

Is a Back Radiation Greenhouse Effect of 33 Kelvin Possible? Ross McLeod, Assoc. Diploma Health Surveying, B. Tech. (Engineering) May 29 2013 Updated August 7 2013 ABSTRACT This paper seeks to demonstrate

### CONSTRUCTING A LOGICAL ARGUMENT

Sloan Communication Program Teaching Note CONSTRUCTING A LOGICAL ARGUMENT The purpose of most business writing is to recommend some course of action ("we should open a branch office in Duluth"; "management

### 8 THE TWISTED THINKING OF LOGICAL FALLACIES (CHAPTER 5)

8 THE TWISTED THINKING OF LOGICAL FALLACIES (CHAPTER 5) Overview Statement: To be good critical thinkers, leaders must study logical fallacies, both so they can avoid using them and spot them in others.

### Self-Confirming Equilibrium and the Lucas Critique

Self-Confirming Equilibrium and the Lucas Critique Drew Fudenberg and David K. Levine Prepared for the Conference in Honor of Robert E. Lucas Jr. The fact that nominal price and wages tend to rise more

### 2. Propositional Equivalences

2. PROPOSITIONAL EQUIVALENCES 33 2. Propositional Equivalences 2.1. Tautology/Contradiction/Contingency. Definition 2.1.1. A tautology is a proposition that is always true. Example 2.1.1. p p Definition

### AP Psychology 2013 Scoring Guidelines

AP Psychology 2013 Scoring Guidelines The College Board The College Board is a mission-driven not-for-profit organization that connects students to college success and opportunity. Founded in 1900, the

### CHAPTER 2. Logic. 1. Logic Definitions. Notation: Variables are used to represent propositions. The most common variables used are p, q, and r.

CHAPTER 2 Logic 1. Logic Definitions 1.1. Propositions. Definition 1.1.1. A proposition is a declarative sentence that is either true (denoted either T or 1) or false (denoted either F or 0). Notation:

### Formal Logic Lecture 2

Faculty of Philosophy Formal Logic Lecture 2 Peter Smith Peter Smith: Formal Logic, Lecture 2 1 Outline Validity again Systematicity and formality Modality and the invalidity principle The counterexample

### Leibniz s solution to the problem of evil

Leibniz s solution to the problem of evil James Franklin Think 5 (Autumn 2003), 97-101 Mark Piper s article `The perennial problem of evil (Think 4) summarises received ideas on the question. They are: