1.1 History of Weather Forecast

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1 1.1 History of Weather Forecast !Societas Meteorologica Palatina (SMP) (Mannheimer Meteorologische Gesellschaft), Secretary: Johann Jakob Hemmer! - SMP was the first organisation for worldwide meteorological observations! - SMP operated 39 weather stations (thermometer, barometer, hygrometer, declination needle)! - Berlin, Dijon, Geneva, Cambridge (USA), Ural,...! - same daily observation times (7, 14 and 21:00 LST)! - same instruments, calibration at headquarter! - same weather classification scheme and units! - weather forecast not possible (slow communication) Atmospheric Dynamics (K. Hocke) 17

2 Fast data communication: 1837 Samuel Morse invented! electrical telegraph!!! Meteorologists generated! current weather maps! Movement of low pressure! system from 9 to 10 Dec. 1887! synoptical weather forecast!! Atmospheric Dynamics (K. Hocke) 18

3 1904 Vilhelm Bjerknes introduced the primitive equations: Weather forecast as an initialization problem of the primitive equations Lewis Fry Richardson: Weather Prediction by Numerical Process. Cambridge University Press, London 1922 Richardson performed the first numerical weather prediction using meteorological observations for initialisation. Extrapolation of the present state of the atmosphere with difference equations based on the primitive equations. - Enormous effort without a computer, and the result was totally wrong! Atmospheric Dynamics (K. Hocke) 19

4 Reasons for the wrong result of Richardson s NWP? - station data were not representative for large grid cells of model - meteorological noise (small-scale variation) is amplified by time-integration of the primitive equations - large time step of model 1950 Jule G. Charney made first reasonable NWP with the electronic ENIAC computer (J. von Neumann) Atmospheric Dynamics (K. Hocke) 20

5 J.G. Charney, R. Fjörtoft, J. Von Neumann, Numerical Integration of the Barotropic Vorticity Equation, Tellus, 2, , a simple dynamical forecast model: Barotropic vorticity equation in finite differences at 500 hpa (not the complete primitive equation set as taken by Richardson and today s non-hydrostatic NWP models!) - assumption of hydrostatic equilibrium, nondivergent air flow, quasi-geostrophic wind => meteorological noise is supressed in the simple model Charney s prediction mainly takes advantage of conservation of absolute vorticity Atmospheric Dynamics (K. Hocke) 21

6 1966 Operational six-layer Primitive Equation Model at Deutscher Wetterdienst and National Meteorological Center (USA) Shuman, Frederick G., John B. Hovermale, 1968: An Operational Six-Layer Primitive Equation Model. J. Appl. Meteor., 7, How did the meteorological forecast look in 1967? Atmospheric Dynamics (K. Hocke) 22

7 observed GPH predicted (two days ago) Northern Hem at 500 hpa (z ~ 6 km) at sea level grid points Atmospheric Dynamics (K. Hocke) 23

8 Numerical Weather Prediction in hours-forecast of cloud coverage (15-km horizontal resolution, ECMWF: European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast) (P. Bechtold in: Shapiro et al., BAMS, 2010) Validation with coincident observation from a satellite 24

9 Deterministic Chaos of the Atmosphere Predictability: Does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas? Edward Lorenz: Deterministic nonperiodic flow, J. Atmos. Sci. 20, , 1963 Edward Lorenz: The Essence of Chaos. Seattle 1993, Appendix 1, S Primitive equations = Set of coupled nonlinear partial differential equations! solutions of the NWP model are sensitive to the initial conditions a tiny difference in the initial conditions (e.g., butterfly) can lead to a different future state of the atmosphere (e.g., rain instead of no rain ) Atmospheric Dynamics (K. Hocke) 25

10 rain small change of the atmospheric state switches the attractor no rain Two attractors in the phase space of the atmospheric state solutions (e.g. rain and no rain ) Atmospheric Dynamics (K. Hocke) 26

11 Ensemble Weather Forecast 1

12 Quality indicator (100% = perfect): Correlation between predicted and observed maps (height of 500 hpa-level) progressively increased AN EARTH-SYSTEM PREDICTION INITIATIVE FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY Shapiro et al., 2010, Atmospheric Dynamics (K. Hocke) 28

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