GLOBAL TRENDS & Their Impact on HR

Transcription

1 GLOBAL TRENDS & Their Impact on HR THE BIG PICTURE Prof. Adrian Done The BIG PICTURE How much time do you spend thinking about the REALLY BIG issues that are likely to transform your personal & professional life in the next 20 years? Global Trends: Facing Up to a Changing World Adrian Done Global Global Trends: Trends: Facing Facing Up to Up a Changing to a Changing World World Adrian Adrian Done Done The Crisis, the Media and US! the last samurai trailer2 Managers & Directors LACK PERSPECTIVE & VISION! Executives inadequately prepared for real-world events! Leaders need greater AWARENESS! The pedagogy of the privileged, The Economist Failing to spot GLOBAL TRENDS Less than 1 in 5 Top Companies Survive 40 Years! 1

2 The Traditional Education Gaining VISION is left to chance at best an incomplete picture! 7 8 We need a BIG PICTURE framework. to be AWARE of drivers of CHANGE Black Swans high-impact, hard-to-predict events. GLOBAL TRENDS large magnitude and consequence. Examples: Dinosaurs (160 million years ago) Egyptians (5000 years ago) Romans (2000 years ago) Mayans (1000 years ago) Financial Crisis (Now) Globalization (20 years from now?) 9 10 The Past: 1992 The Future? 2

3 What are the GLOBAL TRENDS that are likely to shape our lives in the next 20 years? What keeps these people awake at night? The National Intelligence Strategy The World Economic Forum The 12 GLOBAL TRENDS Global Risks Landscape 1. The Crisis : Changes to Political/ Economic/ legal/ Financial Systems 2.Geopolitical Power Shifts: Brazil, Russia, India, China vs USA, EU 3.Technological Challenges: New products, systems, structures, methods 4.Climate Change: What is happening, where? 5.Water & Food Supply: Developed vs Developing World 6.Education: Literacy/Numeracy Trends 7.Demographic Changes: Ageing Populations/ Immigration/ 8.War, Terrorism & Social Unrest: Official wars, Piracy, Drug gangs 9.Energy Supply: Fossil Fuels, Nuclear, Renewables, 10.Ecosystems & Biodiversity: The Human Footprint, Species Extinction 11.Health: Pandemics/ Ineffectiveness of antibiotics/ Child Obesity 12. Natural Disasters: Volcanoes, Earthquakes, Floods, Drought, Storms Is that enough? 16 Developing People in an Increasingly Virtual World What is the potential IMPACT on YOU? -s - Opportunities Are you PESSIMISTIC or OPTIMISTIC? 18 3

4 GLOBAL TREND 1: The Crisis The result of throwing (Public) money at the problem Global Public Debt $ 40, 000, 000, 000, 000 How much is this? Billion: Long Scale 1,000,000,000,000 (million million, ) Things that can t go on forever, usually don t Herbert Stein, Chairman, US Council of Economic Advisors Trillion: Short Scale 1,000,000,000,000 (million million, ) SOURCE: The Economist 20 Are National Public Debt Levels Sustainable? Country Public debt Population Public debt as Public debt per with low (or negative) growth?! % GDP capita Belgium $461, 615, 068, , 600, % $43, France $2, 101, 847, 945, , 636, % $33, Germany $2, 493, 428, 767, , 824, % $30, Greece $400, 145, 205, ,000, % $36, Iceland $13, 736, 986, , % $42, Ireland $148, 115, 068, 493 4, 287, % $34, Italy $2, 483, 542, 465, , 924, % $41, Japan $10, 043, 172, 602, , 063, % $79, Portugal $182, 923, 287, , 600, % $17, Spain $802, 531, 506, , 812, % $17, UK $1,554, 843, 835, , 849, % $25, USA $8,004,352,054, , 145, % $26, SOURCE: The Economist, Global Debt Clock, Global Trends: Facing Up to a Changing World Adrian Done GLOBAL TREND 3: Technological Challenges The Samurai a history lesson Performance The Samurai (1865) 23 Effort (proxy: time) 4

5 The Samurai versus Technology S Curves Performance Stage III Maturity: decreasing returns Stage II Learning: increasing returns Disruptive Technology The Samurai (1865) The Gatling Gun (1865) 25 Stage I Experimentation: uncertainty Effort (proxy: time) Emerging Technologies (Stage I-II) -Biofuels -Radio Frequency ID -Electric Cars -Powered exo-skeleton -Artificial Intelligence -3D Printing -Genetic Engineering -Anti-aging drugs -Superconductivity -Wireless Energy Transfer -Nuclear Fusion GLOBAL TREND 6: Education Education opportunity highly polarized SOURCE: EFA Global Monitoring Report Over 775 million adults worldwide lack basic literacy skills (16% of the world s adult population) and have little or no access to lifelong learning or skills training. SOURCE: EFA Global Monitoring Report

6 Low literacy is not confined to poor countries France: 9% of adults of working age (18 to 65) more than 3 million people had attended school but had literacy problems Netherlands: 1.5 million adults are classified as functionally illiterate. SOURCE: EFA Global Monitoring Report GLOBAL TREND 7: Demographic Changes Population pyramids... to population coffins World population is predicted to rise from 7 billion now to 9.2 billion by 2050 at which point it will stabilize! SOURCE: Population reference bureau World Population Data Sheet. SOURCE: World Economic and Social Survey Development in an AgeingWorld Ageing and the Potential Support Ratio The number of older people will exceed the number of children for the first time in SOURCE: World Population Ageing Executive summary PSR=potential workers per older person (i.e. People aged per person 65 years or over)

7 GLOBAL TREND 9: Energy Supply Each modern American has the equivalent of 100 servants working for them, thanks to the use of oil, gas and electricity. World s primary energy demand Primary energy demand has grown more than 50% since Steven Chu, the US energy secretary SOURCE: US Department of Energy. Energy Activities for Students and Teachers. (Accesed at Jan 2010) SOURCE: 2007 Survey of Energy Resources Executive Summary World primary energy consumption Oil top ten proven reserves More oil is used today than ever before. Oil remains the world s dominant fuel providing 34.8% of global energy consumption. SOURCE: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2009) 39 SOURCE: Financial Times. Energy Security: Oil Key players and movements (JUN 2008) Global Trends: Facing Up to a Changing World Adrian Done GLOBAL TREND 12: Natural Disasters 41 7

8 Is there a trend? Estimated Economic Impact Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels (Belgium); Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels (Belgium); Are you PESSIMISTIC or OPTIMISTIC? THREATS & OPPORTUNITIES: Aggregate Exec. Results Optimism & Pessimism vs. REALISISM! HEALTH DISASTERS THE CRISIS 5 GEO- POLITICS 4 TECHNOLOG 3 Y CRISIS: 2 ECOSYSTEMS 1 CLIMATE WATER & ENERGY FOOD WAR & EDUCATION UNREST DEMOGRAPH Global Trends: Facing Up to Ya Changing World Adrian Done / Danger / Chance 8

9 Scenario Planning: Risk versus Impact You can t plan for the unplannable Impact High Proceed with Caution Wear a Seatbelt STOP or proceed with extreme caution! Low GO FOR IT! Proceed with Caution Wear a Seatbelt Low High Risk Is there anyone in the Crow s Nest? The Global Risks Landscape: World Economic Forum From AWARENESS to ACTION ACT to mitigate threats & maximize opportunities 20% ACTIONS 80% RESULTS 9

10 The GLOBAL TREND Clock The Future? THE CRISIS NATURAL DISASTERS GEO-POLITICAL POWERSHIFTS HEALTH TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGES ECOSYSTEMS & BIODIVERSITY YOU CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY SUPPLY FOOD & WATER WAR & TERRORISM DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES EDUCATION 55 The future is CHANGE! or in other words It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change. SHIFT HAPPENS... GET USED TO IT! Avoid Irrational Optimism & Ill-informed Pessimism let s be REALISTIC!. don t worry about the future. Get ready for it! CRISIS: / Danger / Chance 10

11 There are ALWAYS opportunities! Developing PEOPLE to Use their own judgment Plan a sustainable course Keep their eyes open Avoid denial Prepare contingency plans Stay flexible Global Trends: Facing Up to a Changing World * See Adrian Schwartz, Done Inevitable Surprises Facing-up to a changing world THANK YOU & GOOD LUCK! Adrian Done adone@iese.edu Global Trends: Facing Up to a Changing World Adrian Done