ASEAN Geographic Focus and Sector Opportunities

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1 ASEAN Geographic Focus and Sector Opportunities 18/12/212

2 Attractive Southeast Asia Macro Outlook GDP Growth Expected to Remain Robust Going Forward Real GDP Growth Rates 1-11 ( ) Contribution to Global GDP (211) OECD ASEAN India China LatAm OECD* ASEAN India China LatAm () () If ASEAN were a single entity, it would rank amongst the top 1 economies in the world. Historically, ASEAN s GDP growth had been higher than the OECD and been in line with other emerging markets It is the only sub-region globally expected to achieve higher growth in 212 than in 211 GDP in 212 expected to accelerate to 5.2 from 4.6 last year Low Debt Levels Boosting Investments External Debt Stock to GNI () ASEAN(6)* China LatAm Over the last decade, ASEAN s debt-to-income ratio has declined significantly faster (almost halved) than other emerging markets This has created a more stable monetary environment which is more conducive for investment and growth Sizable Population in the Global Context Contribution to World Population (211) Total World Population: 6.4 bn ASEAN China LatAm OECD Population growth ASEAN LatAm China OECD As of 211, ASEAN had a total population of 538 mn (8.5 of global population), making it the 4th most populous bloc in the world (behind China, India and the EU) Strong population growth is expected to fuel consumption and drive further growth in the region Attracting Attracting a Large a Proportion Large Proportion of Global of Global FDI flows FDI flows () () FDI Growth Rate ( 1-11 ) Contribution to Global FDI flows (211) ASEAN India China LatAm OECD ASEAN India China LatAm OECD In the last 1 years, the ASEAN region had experienced one of the highest growth rates in FDI inflows, increasing by a of 17.7 and contributing to 5.3 of global FDI inflows by 211 Favourable demographics, strong domestic consumption and stable fiscal and monetary policies were the main reasons for attracting the FDI flows Sources: EIU, World Bank ASEAN refers to the 6 key member states which includes,, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam * OECD shown not to scale

3 The Consumption Story is One that Extends throughout Southeast Asia Large and Young Population Population (mn) Under 14 Years of Age (212) Growing Middle Class The number of youths in and the Philippines alone are higher than in the EU and North America ASEAN Becoming Increasingly Urbanized A large, young population will provide a sizeable future labour force boosting future domestic output and driving further domestic consumption ASEAN has a sizeable youth pool (145.2m), more than double that of the EU and North America, which is expected to drive higher consumption of consumer goods and demand for services such as education, healthcare etc. Rapid Growth of ASEAN Middle Class Rising Incomes ASEAN GDP per Capita will Grow at a of 9 Over the Next 2 Years Malaysia Vietnam Thailand Philippines ASEAN ex Robust GDP growth will increase the amount of per capita disposable income for individuals providing a platform for increased consumer spending Domestic Attracting Consumption a Large a Proportion Key Driver of Global Economies FDI flows Real GDP per Capita (US$ ) Domestic Consumption will Continue to Drive Economic Growth of Urbanized Population mn mn of Middle Class Population mn mn ASEAN s middle class population is expected to grow at a rapid of 6.2 between 21 23, rising from 24 to 65 of ASEAN s population. At the same time, the urbanized population is expected to grow from 42 in 21 to 5 by 225 An increasingly urbanized middle class will look to improve their lifestyles, driving demand for consumer related goods and services Domestic Consumption 5-12 : 9.4 Total GDP 5-12 : 1.4 Domestic consumption in ASEAN is expected to continue to contribute between 5-6 of GDP, remaining as a key component of the region s growth Sources: EIU, SCG Chemicals ASEAN refers to the 6 key member states which includes,, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam

4 Selected Southeast Asia Sector Opportunities (1/2) Healthcare The ASEAN healthcare sector is significantly underpenetrated compared to the OECD, with the quantity of beds per 1, people in Philippines and 5 lower than those of mature countries such as EU ASEAN governments have recognized this gap and have been allocating more of their country s budget to healthcare expenditure In countries where the healthcare infrastructure is more developed (such as, Malaysia and Thailand), there is an increased push to promote the region as a medical R&D hub and medical tourism hotspot As the standard of living in ASEAN countries improve, sub-sectors such as health / medical insurance will also see strong growth, as people seek to enhance their quality of lives with better healthcare products and infrastructure Healthcare Sector in ASEAN is Under Penetrated Hospital beds per 1, people (29) Thailand Source: EIU Malaysia Vietnam Philippines* OECD Avg Japan * 8 number used 8.2 Germany 3.3 UK Cheaper Costs Drives Medical Tourism to Malaysia and Thailand, whilst Superior Quality Drives Medical Tourism to Medical Tourism Revenues (in US$ mn) , ,39 1,293 1,13 Malaysia Thailand Source: Frost and Sullivan Education Collectively ASEAN has high levels (> 9) of literacy rate and primary education, yet in most regions the amount of students continuing with secondary and tertiary education are below OECD levels Identified as key to ASEAN s economic development, the development of secondary and tertiary education is being promoted across the bloc through scholarships, exchanges and qualityassurance programmes Malaysia (low-cost education) and (high-cost, high quality education) are competing to become regional hubs, with hosting 12 branches of western affiliated universities and Malaysia hosting 7 (with 25 more applications under review) Another high growth subsector is e-learning, where Vietnam (+44.3) and Malaysia (+39.4) have the highest projected growth rates ( ) in Asia Secondary and Tertiary Markets are Under Penetrated in ASEAN Number of students in full time education with respect to the required age group (212) Thailand* Vietnam OECD Primary Seondary Teriatry Education in Malaysia is becoming Increasingly Attractive to Overseas Students No. of foreign students in Malaysia (1,s) Others Yemen Nigeria China Source: EIU * 9 percentage used Source: OSK Research, Ministry of Higher Education Iran Growth

5 Selected Southeast Asia Sector Opportunities (2/2) Financial Services In 211 consumers owned an average of 3.6 financial products in Southeast Asia compared to over 7 different financial products owned on average by OECD economies A low penetration rate implies room for growth with the development of new access channels: o The introduction of mobile banking in the Philippines added 7.1 million subscribers and added transactions worth more than US$ 1 billion a year In, only 12 of businesses access bank credit and less than 1 of GDP is held in personal bank deposits indicating an unmet demand An improved regulatory environment and more robust macro policies after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis has led to strong external accounts and fiscal discipline which have lowered interest rates and allowed for capital creation to drive investment Commercial Bank Branches (per 1, adults) Domestic Credit provided by Banking Sector ( of GDP) Logistics A growing middle class will fuel greater consumption driving trade and demand for freighted goods The dispersed geographical features of the region and the Philippines being large archipelagoes indicate that the logistics industry will play a crucial role in regional trade The n logistics Industry is currently valued at US$ 34.3 bn with growth driven by surge in private consumption (5.2 growth in 211) and trade (24.8 growth in 211) With most ASEAN economies experiencing healthy budget surpluses, the investment in infrastructure is poised to grow considerably 4, 3, 2, 1, Transport Infrastructure Expenditure (in US$ mn at 27 prices) ,959 16,825 ASEAN Growth will accelerate as infrastructure continues to develop - infrastructure spending requirements for alone are estimated at US$ bn over the next 5 years

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