Drivers of Change in the U.S. Maritime Industry

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1 Drivers of Change in the U.S. Maritime Industry Wayne K. Talley Executive Director, Maritime Institute College of Business and Public Administration Old Dominion University Norfolk, Virginia, U.S.A.

2 Driver: Panama Canal Service In 2006, the voters of Panama approved a $US5.25 billion plan to expand and modernize the Panama Canal (to be completed in 2014). Navigational channels will be widen and deepen to accommodate ship drafts of up to 50 feet. The expansion will allow Post-Panamax containerships up to 12,500 TEUs in size to pass through the Canal.

3 Driver: Panama Canal Service The Panama Canal expansion is expected to benefit U.S. East Coast ports to the detriment of U.S. West Coast Ports. Post-Panamax containerships that previously called at West Coast ports (because they were too large to transit the Panama Canal) will be able to transit the expanded Panama Canal for calls at East Coast ports. The first post-panamax ships to transit the expanded Panama Canal will likely be in the 6,000 TEU size range, eventually increasing to 8,000 TEUs in size.

4 Driver: Panama Canal Service Forecasts indicate that the percentage of containerized cargo from Northeast Asia destined to U.S. East Coast ports via the Panama Canal will increase from 38 percent in 2005 to 44, 46 and 49 percent in 2015, 2020 and 2025, respectively (Master Plan for the Panama Canal 2006). The Panama Canal expansion will also likely lead to an increase in trade between Northeast Asia and countries on the Atlantic side of South America, e.g., Brazil.

5 Driver: Panama Canal Service Following the widening of the Panama Canal, 40% to 50% of the discretionary container cargo that now moves through U.S. Southern California via intermodal double-stack rail service to the U.S. Midwest and East Coast will be in competition with all water service through the Panama Canal to East Coast ports. The extent to which East Coast ports will be able to capture this cargo will depend upon the: 1) intermodal rail prices and 2) whether the gulf ports of Mobile and New Orleans are contenders for Midwest container traffic via rail and the Mississippi River.

6 Driver: Suez Canal Service U.S. East Coast all-water container service from Asia via the Suez Canal is expected to increase significantly as a result of the: 1) growing economies of India and Vietnam. 2) deeper drafts at East Coast ports that can accommodate post-panamax ships. 3) rising U.S. intermodal rail rates. Caveat if there is a significant increase in piracy attacks in the area of the Suez Canal, ships may take the alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope.

7 U.S. East Coast Containerized Imports from Asia (1,000s TEUs) Country July 07-June 08 July 08-June 09 %Change Mainland China 2,199 1, % India Vietnam Hong Kong Thailand Taiwan Indonesia South Korea Pakistan Japan

8 U.S. Intermodal Rail Rates The significant increases in intermodal rail rates (in some cases double-digit increases) to and from U.S. West and East Coast ports have forced container shipping lines (especially those calling at West Coast ports) to reevaluate their services. Some container shipping lines have discontinued U.S. door-to-door services as a result of higher intermodal rail rates, thereby increasing their all-water service through the Panama Canal.

9 Driver: Arctic Sea Service Forecasts of global warming have led to the speculation that Canada s Arctic Sea Route (Northwest Passage) may become a competitor to the sea routes associated with the Panama Canal. One study found that a 10 percent cost savings would occur for transporting containers from St. John s Newfoundland to Yokohama, Japan over the Northwest Passage route (a shorter route) versus transporting the same containers from St. John s Newfoundland through the Panama Canal and then to Yokohama (a longer route).

10 Driver: Port Cargo-Handling Performance A typical U.S. ship-to-shore crane is rated at 45 container moves per hour; most U.S. ports average 25 to 30 moves per. Ship-to-shore cranes at ports in China are able to make 60 container moves per hour.

11 Driver: Larger Containerships Since 1996 the largest containership in service has more than doubled in size. In 1996, the largest containership, the Regina Maersk, had a carrying capacity was 6,000 TEUs. In 2007, the largest containership, the Emma Maersk, had a carrying capacity of 13,000 TEUs. By 2012, 30 percent of containerships will account for 64 percent of the world s containership TEU carrying capacity.

12 Driver: Higher Concerntation Among Container Shipping Lines In 1995 the twenty largest container shipping lines controlled approximately 50 percent of the world s ship TEU carrying capacity. In 2007 the twenty largest container shipping lines controlled 73.4 percent of the world s ship TEU carrying capacity (12,211,101 TEUs) and utilized 33 percent of the number of ships (8,666 ships) in the world s containership fleet. In the future, the twenty largest container shipping lines are expected to control an even larger share of the world s ship TEU carrying capacity, thereby leading to increases in shipping rates.

13 Driver: Reducing Port Air Pollution Ports in the future will be under increasing pressure to reduce air pollution (i.e., to become greener). The number of ports worldwide requiring ships to cold iron (i.e., to switch to a cleaner external power source) and to burn cleaner fuels entering and while in port is expected to increase. Also port vehicles and mobile equipment will be expected to either burn cleaner fuels or use electricity as a power source. The U.S. and Canada have submitted a proposal to the IMO to create a ship Emissions Control Area stretching 200 nautical miles off the coast of each country.

14 Driver: Port Security Ports in the future are expected to devote more resources to security, especially since the passage of the U.S. Implementing Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007 that requires the 100 percent scanning of U.S. inbound containers at foreign ports of last call by the year The 100 percent scanning provision was passed by the U.S. Congress as a political reaction to public perception that limited physical inspections by border security authorities left the nation vulnerable to a smuggled weapon of mass destruction or other dangers. A major fear among U.S. maritime stakeholders is that the U.S. government would effectively shut down maritime trade to and from the U.S. following a domestic maritime terrorist incident in order to investigate the source of the security breach and the possibility of other security breaches.

15 Thank you for your attention!

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