Panama Expansion Spawns a Race to the Bottom East Coast Ports Rush to Dredge. Bradford Winkelman Kyle Schroeckenthaler Issam Kayssi

Transcription

1 Panama Expansion Spawns a Race to the Bottom East Coast Ports Rush to Dredge Bradford Winkelman Kyle Schroeckenthaler Issam Kayssi

2 2 Agenda Background Current Policy Costs and Benefits Conclusions

3 Background Current Policy Costs & Benefits Conclusions 3 US Container Trade Continues to Grow US waterborne container imports (TEUs) are forecasted to grow at a rate of 4.1% between 2010 and 2040 Trade with Asia will dominate, accounting for 80% of imports and about 60% of exports Sources: IHS Global Insight, : PIERS Container Report Calendar 2011, U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Statistics and Federal Highway Administration

4 Background Current Policy Costs & Benefits Conclusions 4 Ship Sizes Are Getting Larger Measure Panamax Post- Panamax Capacity (TEUs) 4,500 12,000 Beam 32m (106 ft.) 49m (160 ft.) Length 294m (965 ft.) 366m (1,200 ft.) Draft 12m (39.5 ft.) 15m (50 ft.) Source: Panama Canal Authority

5 Background Current Policy Costs & Benefits Conclusions 5 More Container Trade Will Be Carried by Large Ships Source: MSI

6 Background Current Policy Costs & Benefits Conclusions 6 The Panama Canal Is Adapting New set of locks on Atlantic side and Pacific Side Allowing vessels transiting the Panama Canal to be 40% longer, 64% wider and have 50 Ft Draft Deepening and widening of the channels Elevation of lake level

7 Background Current Policy Costs & Benefits Conclusions 7 Essential Capacity Will Double Source: Panama Canal Authority

8 Background Current Policy Costs & Benefits Conclusions 8 US Ports Must Also Adapt Ports ill-equipped for 8,000+ TEUs post-panamax vessels Many medium and large ports have been considering facility expansions for decades, including: Deeper and wider channels, deeper berths, longer docks, larger cranes, more multimodal staging area and transshipment equipment

9 Background Current Responses Policy Costs & Benefits Recommendations Conclusions 9 The Federal Government Is Facilitating Port Expansions Feasibility studies with cost-benefit analysis are carried out by local district offices of the United States Army Corps of Engineers (ACE) Federal financing support up to 50 percent of cost Obama declares We Can t Wait Completion of studies and improvements vs. improved analysis

10 10 The Ports Have Had Little Coordination The Corps must ensure that economists adopt a system approach to navigation economic analysis[ ]. Far too often, Corps economists zero in on their district s port of study and hinterlands, irrespective to other ongoing deepening projects/studies. - Kevin Knight, Institute for Water Resources, United States Army Corps of Engineers Background Current Responses Policy Costs & Benefits Recommendations Conclusions

11 Background Current Policy Costs & Benefits Conclusions 11 Expansions Are Justified by Cost Benefit Analyses Extensive ACE cost-benefit studies of improvements are designed to determine if the project is of national interest Costs considered for deepening, widening, environmental damage mitigation, and annual maintenance for improvements Benefits dominated by transportation cost savings

12 Background Current Policy Costs & Benefits Conclusions 12 Cost Benefit Analysis Results Port Project Expected Completion Annual Cost ($M) Annual Benefits ($M) B/C Ratio New York/New Jersey Deepening to 50 ft N/A N/A 6.8 Bridge Raise 2015 $83 $ Norfolk/Virginia/ Hampton Roads Authorized to 55 ft. Currently at 50 ft. Completed N/A N/A N/A Charleston Deepening to 50 ft. Feasibility Study in Progress $19 $ Savannah Deepening to 47 ft $39 $ Jacksonville Deepening to 47 ft. Awaiting Authorization $37 $ Port Everglades Deepening to 48 ft. Under Study $16 $ Miami Deepening to 50 ft $11 $16 1.5

13 Background Current Policy Costs & Benefits Conclusions The Results Do Not Justify the Current Disbursement of Federal Funds Low B/C ratios Accuracy of assumptions All transportation cost savings captured domestically Ship distribution at individual ports and competition Fifty year growth forecasts With high federal burden for each deepening project, more comprehensive analysis is necessary

14 Background Current Policy Costs & Benefits Conclusions 14 Current Alignment Recap All ports rushing to expand capacity Little consideration of dynamic nature of shipping Individual expansion studies Has been called a race-to-the-bottom

15 Background Current Policy Costs & Benefits Conclusions 15 The Federal Government Can Encourage Cooperation Use CBA to meet goals for East Coast expansion: Most effectively capturing economies of scale Influencing which routes are most beneficial to shippers and carriers Include cooperative analysis and port interactions Improvement in project selection when utilizing scarce federal dollars

16 Ports Are Competing For Small Markets Background Current Policy Costs & Benefits Conclusions

17 17 Ports Are Not Considering Carrier Preferences Post-Panamax ready ports Cascade ready ports Source: MSI

18 Background Current Policy Costs & Benefits Conclusions 18 Domestic Ports Are Competing With One Another Significant threat should be seen as foreign ports taking market share Non-US transshipment hubs could develop even if all ports carry out expansion projects Source: U.S. Army Engineer Institute for Water Resources

19 Background Current Policy Costs & Benefits Conclusions 19 This All Suggests Focusing On Hub and Spoke Ports Target improvements for comparative advantage Broad benefits to both levels of ports Same federal outlays Same carrier economies of scale Potentially higher efficiencies at ports

20 Background Current Policy Costs & Benefits Conclusions 20 Growth and Capacity In Three Regions

21 21 Conclusion The federal government should explore options for hub and spoke ports, especially on the southern east coast. Policy incentives will need to be changed to encourage cooperation between ports. More comprehensive cost-benefit analysis will be essential to these alignment decisions.

22 22 Thank You Questions?

23 23 Appendix

24 24 We Can t Wait Port of Jacksonville Port of Miami: Port of Savannah Port of New York/New Jersey Port of Charleston Commitment to complete federal reviews, feasibility studies, and permits

25 25 Panama Canal Share of Trade: Asia to US East Coast

26 26 Port Utilization

27 27 Travel Times

28 28 US Trade Growth Rates