CITY OF ANACORTES P.O. BOX 547, ANACORTES, WA 98221

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1 CITY OF ANACORTES P.O. BOX 547, ANACORTES, WA October 2, 2006 TO: Mayor Maxwell, City Council of Anacortes RE: Study Phase 2 Large Scale Retail, for Public Hearing on October 9, 2006 Dear Mayor Maxwell and Councilmembers: Attached is the Phase 2 Economic Study regarding building size restrictions on large scale retail. This phase of the Economic Study will be open for discussion at the October 9, 2006 Public Hearing. If you have any comments or questions, please contact Wanda Phillips. Sincerely, Jesse Hofheimer Finance Manager

2 M E M O R A N D U M DATE: September 29, 2006 TO: Ian Munce, City of Anacortes FROM: Michael Hodgins and Natasha Fedo, Berk & Associates RE: Development Implications of Changing Building Size Restrictions - Anacortes seeks to promote land use regulations that will provide the City with a balanced mix of retail, thereby increasing shopping opportunities in the City and ensuring a strong sales tax base. The City is considering a proposed new General City Goal 10 of the current draft 2006 comprehensive Plan, which reads: GOAL 10: Increase shopping opportunities within the City by adopting development regulations that do not use a maximum square footage for a building or complex of buildings. (a) Adopt development regulations that allow a building or complex of buildings over 50,000 square feet to be considered (for approval, approval with conditions, or denial) in the CBD, Commercial, and certain Commercial Marine zones. (b) Adopt standards in the development regulations against which to judge conditional use applications submitted under General Goal 10, Policy (a); until such standards are adopted, no such applications will be considered. One implication of changing this regulation may be the development potential of a big box retailer in Anacortes. The analysis conducted as part of the City s Economic Study suggests that there are several currently underserved retail categories within the City, presenting opportunities in the general merchandise category, but is it enough to support larger scale retail? To help understand the potential impact of this proposed regulatory change, a key question needs to be answered: How much retail square footage could be supported if Anacortes were to capture the spending from these underserved markets? The objective of this memorandum is to provide the City with information and analysis to assist in answering this question.

3 FINDINGS As the Taxable Retail Sales Analysis from Phase I Economic Study suggests, from a fiscal perspective the City enjoys higher than average taxable retail sales (TRS) per capita, suggesting some importation of outside dollars to support local services. In general there is a solid base of locally-supportive uses that are augmented by three key components that contribute beyond the scale for a City the size of Anacortes. These are auto dealers, manufacturing activities, and boat dealers which all contribute more than typical shares on a per capita basis. However, the City of Anacortes is underserved in some retail categories, particularly apparel and general merchandise sales. One way to talk about retail market is in terms of retail capture rates. A capture rate describes the number of person-expenditures a retail area captures and is calculated by dividing taxable retail sales (by industry) for the City of Anacortes by the overall statewide average per capita taxable retail sales for the same retail category. The resulting calculation yields a measure that estimates the supported market size, in terms of person-expenditures or more simply the population based on the typical spending per person. This data is then compared to 2005 population estimates for three areas that could describe the potential retail market draw for the City of Anacortes: City of Anacortes, population 15,700. Located somewhat away from the major regional retail centers, Anacortes retail is able to draw most of the city population. City of Anacortes plus Guemes and Fidalgo islands, population 22,935. The City is conveniently located to capture the spending by the immediate neighbors such as the rest of the Fidalgo Island and Guemes Island (as the island is only a short crossing from downtown Anacortes). Anacortes plus Guemes and Fidalgo islands plus San Juan County, population 38,435. The residents from and visitors to the San Juan Islands have to make their way through Anacortes on the way to the ferry. One might argue that the City provides much of the market for these customers due to convenient location. As a hypothetical example, if a typical household in Washington State spends $1,000 per person annually on grocery store purchases, and if grocery stores in Anacortes capture $10 million in grocery sales per year, then Anacortes stores are said to capture the equivalent of 10,000 people s expenditures ($10 million of expenditures divided by $1,000 per person = 10,000 personexpenditures). This figure of 10,000 person-expenditures represents Anacortes capture rate for grocery sales. This capture rate can then be compared with the City s population to determine if the City is importing dollars in this category (capture rate is higher than the population) or if the City is exporting dollars (capture rate is lower than the population).. Major observations for 2005 Person-Expenditures analysis (see attached Chart): The retail sector in Anacortes that serves the largest market is boat dealers with a supported market size of over 120,000 people. This industry serves the population well over the market size of Anacortes, Guemes and Fidalgo Islands, and San Juan County (37,657 people in 2005). The city serves a relatively large market size for Food and Drink, which includes grocery stores (34,207 people in 2005, more than twice the City s population base). September 29, 2006 Page 2

4 The city also serves a relatively large market for Health and Personal Care stores (31,510 people in 2005), consisting of pharmacies and drug stores. General Merchandise and Apparel/Accessories sectors are well below the population size of Anacortes. The market for General Merchandise only captures the equivalent spending of 340 people and Apparel/Accessories serves 4,000, compared with population of 15,700. Other consumer retail categories that are below the population size of Anacortes (15,700 people) include Furniture, Electronics, Building/Garden Supplies, and Sports/Books/Music. The weakest retail categories are mainly those associated with destination retailers and merchandise not typically purchased on an everyday basis, such as apparel, furniture, electronics, and general merchandise. While there is strong competition from regional retail centers (Burlington in particular), these categories are so severely underserved that it is conceivable that the local market could support some larger-scale retail development should the size restrictions be lifted. Continuing on the path of market evaluation through person-expenditures, the potential additional retail capture for the various underserved categories was estimated. The total potential spending in each underserved category was estimated by multiplying the underserved population for the three market definitions by the statewide average spending per person in these categories. Exhibit 1 presents the total spending in each of these market areas that is not captured by the City. Exhibit 1 Potential Spending Not Captured by Anacortes Retail for Different Market Sizes, 2005 NAICS Industry Anacortes Anacortes, Guemes & Fidalgo Anacortes, Guemes, Fidalgo & San Juans 442 Furniture/Furnishings $443,000 $2,862,000 $8,044, Electronics/Appliances 1,812,000 4,817,000 11,254, Bldg. Material/Garden Supply 2,745,000 8,453,000 20,682, Apparel/Accessories 6,236,000 9,863,000 17,633, Sports/Books/Music 2,276,000 4,375,000 8,871, Gen. Merchandise 21,854,000 32,154,000 54,221, Misc. Retail 0 3,692,000 13,304,000 Total 35,366,000 66,216, ,009,000 Source: WA Department of Revenue, Berk & Associates analysis. Taxable Retail Sales - Not Captured by Anacortes, 2005 In addition to current market capture, the market in Anacortes could potentially draw more spending from the city residents and nearby communities. The analysis of underserved market segments suggests that: There is approximately $35 million per year in retail leakage from City resident spending in the identified underserved markets. If one considered the potential spending of all residents of Fidalgo (including Guemes Island) the potential spending in these categories amounts to $66 million. September 29, 2006 Page 3

5 If one considered an even broader definition of the potential market area by adding the resident population of the San Juan Islands, the total spending not captured in the City of Anacortes would be $134 million. However, some categories of the underserved segments present more potential opportunity than others, for example there are not many choices in terms of electronics/ appliances or furniture shopping in the San Juan Islands. Most retailers need to capture certain number of retail sales per square foot in order to be profitable and stay in business. Taxable retail sales per square foot are good proxies for estimating the potential square footage of prospective retail stores. It is useful to look at a range of TRS per square foot instead of a single number as different stores require different TRS per square foot ratio. Most of the general merchandise category will fall in the $200-$400 per square foot range. If we assume the 2005 TRS and population, the following conclusions emerge: Exhibit 2 Anacortes Additional Retail Capacity, ,000 Retail Capacity (Square Feet) 800, , , , , , , ,000 0 Anacortes, Guemes, Fidalgo & San Juan County Anacortes, Guemes & Fidalgo City of Anacortes 59,000 29,000 88, ,000 55, , , , ,000 $400 $300 $200 Taxable Retail Sales per Square Foot Considering only the likely retail leakage from City residents in these underserved segments, there is a potential for new retail capacity that ranges from 88,000 sf (assuming $400 per square foot) to 177,000 sf (assuming $200 per square foot). Based on an average of $300 per square foot the potential supportable retail would be 118,000 sf. September 29, 2006 Page 4

6 Adding the spending potential for the balance of Fidalgo and Guemes Island the potential retail capacity ranges from 165,000 sf ($400 per square foot) to 330,000 sf ($200 per square foot) with an average of 220,000 sf for sales of $300 per square foot. Finally assuming that retailers in Anacortes could capture all of the spending in these categories from residents of Anacortes, Guemes and Fidalgo islands and San Juan County, the potential retail capacity ranges from 335,000 sf ($400 per square foot) to 670,000 sf ($200 per square foot), with an average of 447,000 sf for $300. It is conceivable that a larger-scale retailer or several smaller-scale stores can choose to provide services in Anacortes. On average, the larger-scale general merchandise retailer could produce approximately $ per square foot in TRS, especially if there is some competition from another large scale store or some smaller retailers. $400 per square foot is possible if one retailer were to capture a large share of the market. In addition to the potential for serving an underserved current market, most retailers will look at the projected growth in population when considering a location for their business. By 2015, the three market areas are expected to grow significantly (Exhibit 3), increasing the retail customer base. Exhibit 3 Estimated Population in Anacortes and Other Market Areas Market Area Estimated Population City of Anacortes 15,700 18,967 Anacortes, Guemes and Fidalgo islands 22,935 27,650 Anacortes, Guemes, Fidalgo, and San Juan County 38,435 46,818 Source: Office of Financial Management, Berk & Associates analysis With this increase customer base, the currently underserved market has an even higher potential to produce a larger-scale retail establishment. September 29, 2006 Page 5

7 Exhibit 4 Anacortes Additional Retail Capacity, Considering 2015 Population Estimates 900, ,000 Anacortes, Guemes, Fidalgo & San Juan County Retail Capacity (Square Feet) 700, , , , , ,000 Anacortes, Guemes & Fidalgo City of Anacortes 81, ,000 72, , , , ,000 41, , ,000 0 $400 $300 $200 Taxable Retail Sales per Square Foot September 29, 2006 Page 6

8 Attachment 1: Person-Expenditures in Anacortes by Industry, 2005 NAICS Code and Industry Person-Expenditures 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , , Autos and Parts Auto Dealers Other Motor Vehicle Dealers Parts Dealers Furniture/Furnishings Furniture Home Furnishings Electronics/Appliances Bldg. Material/Garden Supply Building Material Garden Supply Food and Drink Grocery Stores Specialty Foods Health/Personal Care Gas Stations Apparel/Accessories Clothing Stores Shoe Stores Jewerly/Luggage Sports/Books/Music Gen. Merchandise Misc. Retail Florists Office Supplies/Gifts Used Merchandise Other Misc Merchandise Nonstore Retail E-shopping/Mail-order Non-store retail Restaurants/Catering Full-Service Restaurants Limited-Service Eateries Catering Hotels/Motels Anacortes City Population 2005 = 15,700 Anacortes, Fidalgo & Guemes Population 2005 = 22,157 Anacortes, Fidalgo, Guemes & San Juan County Population 2005 = 37,657 3-Digit NAICS 4-Digit Sub-Category September 28, 2006 Page 7

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