Vad visar N EPP:sscenarier för utvecklingen till2030 och 2050?

Transcription

1 Vad visar N EPP:sscenarier för utvecklingen till23 och 25? Filip Johnsson Chalmers University of Technology Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Energy Technology Sweden filip.johnsson@chalmers.se NEPP seminarium 21/5, 215

2 Sammanfattningsvis 4 scenarier som uppfyller EUs mål till 25 (klimat, förnybart, effektivisering) ej prognostisering av framtiden Kraftig expansion av förnybart (vind och sol) i samtliga scenarier Betydande skillnader i teknikmix beroende på scenario Enormt investeringsbehov i såväl kraft som överföringskapacitet Investeringar högre än historiskt Effektivisering ger minskat tryck på investering i kraft > ökar realismen att nå målen? Lokalisering (antal siter ) inte begränsande för termisk kraft Reserv + biomassa (KVV) ger utmaningar Stort tryckpå ny lokalisering för ny förnybart (speciellt vind) Stort behov av reglerkraft (tex gasturbiner) Norden nettoexportör av el i samtliga scenarier

3 Scenarios Pathways & NEPP Existing policy measures EC Current policy Reference Climate market International carbon trade EC Diversified supply techn., High GDP Regional policy Green policy Technological dimension Climate, RES and efficiency polices EC High energy efficiency Very ambitious renewables policy EC High renewable Policy dimension

4 ELIN (EPOD) modeling (EU27+NO+CH) + Chalmers power plant database

5 European electricity generation scenario, Climate market Today (213): 33% RES, 42% fossil and 25% nuclear Other Solar (and other RES E) Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS Coal convent Hydro Total demand One overarching CO 2 reduction goal post 22, 95% by 25 Common EU effort All technologies optional CCS available Increased electrification GW Installed capacity vres Other RES Other thermal CCS Increasing ETS and wholesale electricity prices after 22 EU 27, NO and CH

6 Future and historical annual investments in electricity generation (annual commissioning's) in Europe Green policy Climate market Annual capacity installations (GW) 6 4 Wind & solar Annual capacity installations (GW) Thermal (fuel) power plants Hydro power plants Other Thermal (fuel) power plants Hydro power plants Other Other = wind and solar power Significant difference in balance between investments in large scale power plants and in small scaled production

7 European wind power: Total installed capacity 1 Total installed capacity (GW) Green Policy Climate Market Reference Regional Policy

8 European PV power : Total installed capacity 6 5 Total installed capacity (GW) Green Policy Climate Market Reference Regional Policy

9 Europe: Large investments in interconnector capacity 4 3 GP GW 2 1 REF RP CM Existing New

10 Europe: Number of existing and new thermal power plants ( Non peak ) Green policy Climate market No of installations 2 No of installations Existing fossil Existing nuclear Existing renewable Existing fossil Existing nuclear Existing renewable New fossil New nuclear New renewable New fossil New nuclear New renewable

11 The Nordic countries 6 Reference 6 Climate Market Other Other renew Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS Coal convent Hydro Total demand Other Other renew Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS Coal convent Hydro Total demand 6 Regional Policy 6 Green Policy Other Other renew Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS Coal convent Other Other renew Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS Coal convent Hydro Total demand Hydro Total demand

12 Italy Reference Other Other renew Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS Climate Market Other Other renew Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS 1 5 Coal convent Hydro 1 Total demand Coal convent Hydro Total demand Regional Policy Other Other renew Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS Coal convent Hydro Total demand Green Policy Other Other renew Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS Coal convent Hydro Total demand

13 Sweden Green policy Regional policy Fossil Hydro Fossil Hydro Biomass, waste, peat Wind Other renewables Coal Gross demand Biomass, waste, peat Wind Other renewables Coal Gross demand

14 Implikationer från investeringsbehov 1 Annual capacity installations (GW) Land-use/number of sites Public acceptance Financial resources Lead times Electricity price fluctuations Regional differences Security of supply Job opportunities Thermal (fuel) power plants Hydro power plants Wind, solar and other Regional Policy

15 Termiska system långa ledtider Exempel biogasproduktion från förgasning Chalmers 2-4 MW pilotanläggning GoBiGas fas 1 Hisingen 2 MW SNG demonstrationsanläggning Göteborg Energi GoBiGas fas 2 Hisingen 8 MW SNG Kommersiell anläggning Gbg Energi Chalmers labreaktor

16 Decentraliserade system korta ledtider? Mindre förutsägbart? Conventional Prosumer System System

17 EU-ETS nya/andra drivkrafter? - exempel cementindustri C1: a new state-of-the-art kiln system C2: kiln system equipped for postcombustion capture of CO 2 using chemical absorption with MEA C3: kiln system adapted for full oxycombustion and CO 2 capture Rootzén, J., Johnsson, F. (215) Work in-progress

18 Sammanfattningsvis 4 scenarier som uppfyller EUs mål till 25 (klimat, förnybart, effektivisering) ej prognostisering av framtiden Kraftig expansion av förnybart (vind och sol) i samtliga scenarier Betydande skillnader i teknikmix beroende på scenario Enormt investeringsbehov i såväl kraft som överföringskapacitet Investeringar högre än historiskt Effektivisering ger minskat tryck på investering i kraft > ökar realismen att nå målen? Lokalisering (antal siter ) inte begränsande för termisk kraft Reserv + biomassa (KVV) ger utmaningar Stort tryckpå ny lokalisering för ny förnybart (speciellt vind) Stort behov av reglerkraft (tex gasturbiner) Norden nettoexportör av el i samtliga scenarier

19 Extras

20 Number of new peak power installations 5 4 No of installations Ref Regional P Climate M Green P

21 European electricity generation scenario, Reference Today (213): 33% RES, 42% fossil and 25% nuclear Other Other renew Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS Coal convent Hydro Total demand Moderate climate policy ambitions by 25, approx 6% in electricity generation RES E according to NREAPs GW Installed capacity vres Other RES Other thermal CCS Slowly increasing ETS and prices and EU 27, NO and CH

22 European electricity generation scenario, Green policy Today (213): 33% RES, 42% fossil and 25% nuclear Other Other renew Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS Coal convent Hydro Total demand > Almost 5% wind in 25 (similar to the EWEA vision) Increasing subsidy levels for RES E and low wholesale electricity prices Very ambitious targets for RES, ~9% by 25 Common European RES effort CO 2 reduction target, 95% Rapid nuclear phase out (45 5 yrs instead of 6 yrs) GW Installed capacity EU 27, NO and CH vres Other RES Other thermal CCS

23 European electricity generation scenario, Regional Policy Today (213): 33% RES, 42% fossil and 25% nuclear Other Other renew Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS Coal convent Hydro Total demand Targets for RES, CO2 red and end use efficiency by 23/25 RES E share: 33% 213, 4% 22, 5% 23 National efforts All options available GW Installed capacity vres Other RES Other thermal CCS Low ETS and wholesale electricity prices until 23 EU 27, NO and CH

24 Important considerations for the development of the European electricity system that define our scenarios EU 22 energy and climate package, the 23 policy framework and the 25 roadmap ( 4% GHG, 27% RES and +27% energy efficiency) Significant effort for the electricity system (towards zero emissions by 25?) Policy setup (focusing on GHG, on RES or on several policy objectives simultaneously) Technological development and availability o Renewables o CCS o power o Efficiency measures, increased electrification Economic growth, international fuel markets Common EU effort or regional targets Increased integration through new interconnectors.

25 Termiska system långa ledtider Exempel Oxyfuelförbränning för CO 2 avskiljning Jänschwalde 25 MW demonstration plant Commercial plant Chalmers 1kW research plant Vattenfall 3MW pilot plant

26 9 Elprisutveckling EUR/MWh Climate Market Regional Policy (incl TGC) 1 Ett mål Tre mål

27 Elpris - 23

28 Betydande potential för nordisk elexport till norra/centrala Europa Including new interconnectors Very high EUA prices Common EU RES support New non RES capacity Declining electricity use Higher EUA prices RES targets Removing Continental bottlenecks Existing interconnectors only Low EUA prices No further policy instruments Low availability in thermal power stations (or phase out) Very high capacity build up in Cont. Europe Handel med Ryssland ej inkluderat

29 Aging of existing power plants (including official decommissioning plans) EU 28+CH+NO Germany Installed existing (end of 214) capacity (GW) Gas Hard coal Lignite Oil Wind onshore Wind offshore Biomass Peat Waste PV Hydro Geothermal Unknown Installed existing (end of 214) capacity (GW) Gas Hard coal Lignite Oil Wind onshore Wind offshore Biomass Peat Waste PV Hydro Unknown Geothermal In 235, approximately half of existing European capacity is still available (or young enough ) If no official decomm. plans: coal and lignite: 4 yrs PV 3 yrs wind: 25 yrs nuclear: 6 yrs etc.

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32 Future and historical annual investments in electricity generation (annual commissionings) Moderate Go for all Annual capacity installations (GW) 6 4 Annual capacity installations (GW) Thermal (fuel) power plants Hydro power plants Other Thermal (fuel) power plants Hydro power plants Other

33 Number of installations: (and regulating power) 5 ClimateM 5 Green P 4 4 No of installations 3 2 No of installations Existing New NGCC New peak turbines Reg P In the model, gas turbines provide for regulating power. Other means such as DSM, PS mayapplybutarenot included 5 Existing New NGCC New peak turbines Ref 4 4 No of installations 3 2 No of installations Existing New NGCC New peak turbines Existing New NGCC New peak

34 Wind power: Annual capacity investments 5 Average annual wind investmnenst (GW) Climate Market Reference Regional Policy Green Policy Existing pace is only significantly exceed by the Go for green scenario until 23. Post 235, pace is significantly higher than today in all scenarios

35 PV power: Total installed capacity 6 5 Total installed capacity (GW) Green Policy Climate Market Reference Regional Policy

36 PV power: Annual capacity investments 35 Average annual PV investmnenst (GW) Climate Market Reference Regional Policy Reference Current decline in pace continues and levels out until 23. Post 23, significant increase in pace up to, and above, top pace from 211 Calculated pace depends on e.g.: cost decline for PV, national grid parity assumptions and pace of RES E target progress

37 Cost structure (regional policy)

38 Overall conclusions RES E will grow substantially in all scenarios. It is a matter of pace and total volume Massive investments needed in both generation capacity and grid Total generation investments typically above historical annual investments. Depending on scenario the balance in technology investments differs significantly Efficiency goals a way to relax pressure on supply investments > increasing the realism of reaching the targets? Siting will not present limitation to new thermal power plants with a possible exception for biomass Substantial need for regulating power (e.g gas turbines) due to increase in vres and/or (if electricity demand is not increased vres will crowd out dispatchable power plants)

39 National outlook: UK 6 Reference 6 Go for climate (Climate Market) 5 Other Other renew 5 Other Other renew 4 Wind Biomass cofire CCS 4 Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste Biomass and waste 3 CCS 3 CCS 2 Oil Coal CCS 2 Oil Coal CCS 1 Coal convent Hydro Total demand 1 Coal convent Hydro Total demand Go for all (Regional Policy) Other Other renew Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS Coal convent Hydro Total demand Go for green (Green Policy) Other Other renew Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS Coal convent Hydro Total demand

40 National outlook: Spain Reference Other Other renew Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS Coal convent Hydro Total demand Go for climate (Climate Market) Other Other renew Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS Coal convent Hydro Total demand Go for all (Regional Policy) Other Other renew Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS Coal convent Hydro Total demand Go for green (Green Policy) Other Other renew Wind Biomass cofire CCS Biomass and waste CCS Oil Coal CCS Coal convent Hydro Total demand

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