# Lecture 10: Sequential Data Models

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1 CSC2515 Fall 2007 Introduction to Machine Learning Lecture 10: Sequential Data Models 1

2 Example: sequential data Until now, considered data to be i.i.d. Turn attention to sequential data Time-series: stock market, speech, video analysis Ordered: text, genes Simple example: Coins A (p(h) =.6); B (p(h) =.7); C (p(h) =.2) Process: C=h 1. Let X be coin A or B C=t 2. Loop until tired: A B 1. Flip coin X, record result 2. Flip coin C C=h 3. If C=heads, switch X C=t Fully observable formulation: data is sequence of coin selections AAAABBBBAABBBBBBBAAAAABBBBB 2

3 Simple example: Markov model If underlying process unknown, can construct model to predict next letter in sequence In general, product rule expresses joint distribution for sequence First-order Markov chain: each observation independent of all previous observations except most recent ML parameter estimates are easy Each pair of outputs is a training case; in this example: P(X t =B X t-1 =A) = #[t s.t. X t = B, X t-1 = A] / #[t s.t. X t-1 = A] 3

4 Higher-order Markov models Consider example of text Can capture some regularities with bigrams (e.g., q nearly always followed by u, very rarely by j) But probability of a letter depends on more than just previous letter Can formulate as second-order Markov model (trigram model) Need to take care: many counts may be zero in training dataset 4

5 Hidden Markov model (HMM) Return to coins example -- now imagine that do not observe ABBAA, but instead sequence of heads/tails Generative process: 1. Let Z be coin A or B 2. Loop until tired: 1.Flip coin Z, record result X 2.Flip coin C 3.If C=heads, switch Z Z is now hidden state variable 1 st order Markov chain generates state sequence (path), governed by transition matrix A Observations governed by emission probabilities, convert state path into sequence of observable symbols or vectors: 5

6 Relationship to other models Can think of HMM as: Markov chain with stochastic measurements Mixture model with states coupled across time Hidden state is 1 st -order Markov, but output not Markov of any order Future is independent of past give present, but conditioning on observations couples hidden states 6

7 HMM: Main tasks Joint probabilities of hidden states and outputs: Three problems 1. Computing probability of observed sequence: forward-backward algorithm 2. Infer most likely hidden state sequence: Viterbi algorithm 3. Learning parameters: Baum-Welch (EM) algorithm 7

8 Probability of observed sequence Compute marginals to evaluate probability of observed seq.: sum across all paths of joint prob. of observed outputs and state path Take advantage of factorization to avoid exp. cost (# paths = K T ) 8

9 Forward recursion (α) Clever recursion can compute huge sum efficiently 9

10 Backward recursion (β) α(z t,j ): total inflow of prob. to node (t,j) β(z t,j ): total outflow of prob. from node (t,j) 10

11 Forward-Backward algorithm Estimate hidden state given observations One forward pass to compute all α(z t,i ), one backward pass to compute all β(z t,i ): total cost O(K 2 T) Can compute likelihood at any time t based on α(z t,j ) and β(z t,j ) 11

12 Baum-Welch training algorithm: Summary Can estimate HMM parameters using maximum likelihood If state path known, then parameter estimation easy Instead must estimate states, update parameters, reestimate states, etc. Baum-Welch (form of EM) State estimation via forward-backward, also need transition statistics (see next slide) Update parameters (transition matrix A, emission parameters φ) to maximize likelihood 12

13 Transition statistics Need statistics for adjacent time-steps: Expected number of transitions from state i to state j that begin at time t-1, given the observations Can be computed with the same α(z t,j ) and β(z t,j ) recursions 13

14 Parameter updates Initial state distribution: expected counts in state i at time 1 Estimate transition probabilities: Emission probabilities are expected number of times observe symbol in particular state: 14

15 Viterbi decoding How to choose single best path through state space? Choose state with largest probability at each time t: maximize expected number of correct states But not single best path, with highest likelihood of generating the data To find best path Viterbi decoding, form of dynamic programming (forward-backward algorithm) Same recursions, but replace with max (weather example) Forward: retain best path into each node at time t Backward: retrace path back from state where most probable path ends 15

16 Using HMMs for recognition Can train an HMM to classify a sequence: 1. train a separate HMM per class 2. evaluate prob. of unlabelled sequence under each HMM 3. classify: HMM with highest likelihood Assumes can solve two problems: 1. estimate model parameters given some training sequences (we can find local maximum of parameter space near initial position) 2. given model, can evaluate prob. of a sequence 16

17 Application example: classifying stair events Aim: automatically detect unusual events on stairs from video Idea: compute visual features describing person s motion during descent, apply HMM to several sequences of feature values One-class training: 1. train HMM on example sequences from class: normal stair descent 2. set likelihood threshold L based on labelled validation set: 3. classify by thresholding HMM likelihood of test sequence 17

18 Classifying stair events: Normal event 18

19 Classifying stair events: Anomalous event 19

20 Classifying stair events: Precision-recall 20

21 1. High dimensional state space: - transition matrix has K 2 entries - can constrain to be relatively sparse: each state has only a few possible successor states (c) - inference now O(cKT), number of parameters O(cK+KM) - can construct state ordering, only allow transitions to later states: linear, chain, or left-to-right HMMs 2. High dimensional observations: - in continuous data space, full covariance matrices have many parameters use mixtures of diagonal covariance Gaussians HMM Regularization 21

22 HMM Extensions 1. Generalize model of state duration: - vanilla HMM restricted in model of how long stay in state - prob. that model will spend D steps in state k and then transition out: - instead associate distribution with time spent in state k: P(t k) (see semi-markov models for sequence segmentation applications) 2. Combine with auto-regressive Markov model: - include long-range relationships - directly model relations between observations 3. Supervised setting: - include additional observations - input-output HMM 22

23 Linear Dynamical Systems Return to state space model: - last week s continuous latent variable models, but now not i.i.d. - view as linear-gaussian state evolution, continuous-valued, with emissions 23

24 LDS generative process Consider generative process: where u, w t, v t are all mean zero Gaussian noise terms Can express in terms of linear-gaussian conditional distributions 24

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