Results of Transnet s long term freight transport demand model. 1 July 2008

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1 Results of Transnet s long term freight transport demand model 1 July 2008

2 Agenda 1. Background 2. Global context 3. Understanding supply and demand 4. Collated flows 5. Detail flows 6. Conclusion # 2

3 Integrated intelligence is imperative for long term infrastructure planning Transnet commissioned the University of Stellenbosch to develop a freight transport demand forecast in January 2006 with the principle aim of the forecasts to provide an understanding of SA s surface freight transport market This understanding informs medium and long term capacity planning within Transnet This was the first such model that was built in South Africa and significant advances in the modelling of freight demand were made during the course of the project The model was recently updated and refined with 2006 data, with a resulting updated 20-year freight transport demand forecast on a 5-yearly basis i.e. 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026 The refinements involved more detailed commodity research as well as detailed verification of flow model parameters # 3

4 The methodology is complex and the level of detail modelled here is ground breaking work compared to similar global modelling efforts Step 1 Step 2 Actual data based on publications and personal interviews Verify with: Known flows Rail data National freight flow model Macro-economic data National I-O model Apportionment - Supply and demand per commodity on a geographical basis Allocation - Flows per commodity Consolidation of data into corridor and rural flows Macro-economic forecast Commodity forecasts Strategic interpretation # 4

5 As in the previous year, a robust verification process was employed The total output was compared to the national freight flow model (SANRAL based) and strong correlation on corridor and rural flows confirmed a high degree of accuracy A pareto based combination was followed. The modelling framework provided an economic structure by weight which was enhanced with empirical research for 90% of total GDP by weight The detailed commodity forecasts were verified by the BER the aggregated forecasts showed strong correlation with macro economic projections over the same time period # 5

6 Agenda 1. Background 2. Global context 3. Understanding supply and demand 4. Collated flows 5. Detail flows 6. Conclusion # 6

7 In this global context, South Africa s spatially challenged economy requires innovative thinking SA as % of world figure GDP Surface freight tonkm Maritime tonkm Surface freight refers to road and rail freight Source: Calculated by the Centre for Supply Chain Management, University of Stellenbosch, from various sources # 7

8 The imbalance between supply and demand for the various mode classes clearly demonstrates the key problem in the South African economy Tonkm supply > tonkm demand Percentage Tonkm supply = tonkm demand Tonkm supply < tonkm demand 0 Rail Intermodal Road Primary Metropolitain Rural Corridor Tonkm supply expressed as % of tonkm demand for each mode Source: Centre for Supply Chain Management, University of Stellenbosch # 8

9 The continued absence of an intermodal solution has led to a sudden increase in South Africa s truck fleet in an attempt to address freight owners door-to-door needs The heavy vehicle fleet is growing exponentially NFLS National Freight Logistics Strategy Source: NAAMSA data # 9

10 It is in finding the solutions to these challenges that the results of the Transnet freight transport model are invaluable # 10

11 Agenda 1. Background 2. Global context 3. Understanding supply and demand 4. Collated flows 5. Detail flows 6. Conclusion # 11

12 In the likely scenario, total tonnage shipped will more than double in the next 20 years 2500 Total tonnage demand and shipped Likely scenario 2000 Tons (' ) Demand Shipped Source: Centre for Supply Chain Management, University of Stellenbosch # 12

13 The top 28 commodities are reported individually The commodities were picked based on: Ensuring that commodities contributing 90% to total supply & demand tons and/or 90% to supply and demand tons per packaging type Commodities that contribute 80% of Exports and 50% of Imports (rand value) (latter due to granular commodities and evenly spread contribution) # 13

14 The weight data was compiled from 62 commodity groupings in the primary and secondary sectors of the economy. The primary sector includes mining and agriculture Mining Chrome Coal Mining Limestone & Lime Works Other Stone Quarrying Mining Of Chemical & Fertilizer Minerals Rail only: Iron Ore Magnetite Manganese Other dry bulk: Copper Other Mining Other Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Other Non-Metallic Minerals Granite Titanium Zinc Excluded from further analysis not road/rail: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Blue = Top 28 # 14 Agriculture Maize Sugar Cane Other perishables: Subtropical Fruit Citrus Deciduous Fruit Viticulture Livestock (Slaughtered) Poultry Products Vegetables Dairy Other break bulk: Cotton Other dry bulk: Barley Grain Sorghum Soya Beans Sunflower Seed Wheat Other Agriculture

15 The weight data was compiled from 62 commodity groupings in the primary and secondary sectors of the economy. The secondary sector is manufacturing Manufacturing Beverages Bricks Cement Fertilizers And Pesticides Food And Food Processing Industrial Chemicals Machinery And Equipment Metal Products Excluding Machinery Motor Vehicle Parts And Accessories Motor Vehicles Non-Metallic Mineral Products Other Chemicals Other Iron And Steel Basic Industries Wood And Wood Products Non-Ferrous Metal Basic Industries Transport Equipment Paper & Paper Products Petroleum products Other break bulk: Pharmaceutical, Detergents And Toiletries Printing And Publishing Rubber Products Textiles, Clothing, Leather Products And Footwear Furniture Tobacco Products Electrical Machinery Ferrochrome Ferromanganese Other Manufacturing Industries Blue = Top 28 # 15

16 The 2006 actuals and 2026 forecasts are depicted for the Top 28 commodities (Supply/Demand) TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT METAL PRODUCTS EXCLUDING MACHINERY MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS AND ACCESSORIES MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT FERTILIZERS AND PESTICIDES CHEMICAL & FERTILIZER MINERALS MANGANESE MAIZE PAPER NON-FERROUS METAL BASIC INDUSTRIES INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS NON-METALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS BRICKS BEVERAGES PERISHABLES OTHER BREAK BULK WOOD AUTOMOTIVE CHROME OTHER CHEMICALS CEMENT STEEL SUGAR CRUDE LIMESTONE PROCESSED FOODS FUEL OTHER DRY BULK IRON STONE COAL Tons(' ) Source: Centre for Supply Chain Management, University of Stellenbosch # 16

17 Coal mining is large. It is easier to make comparisons when it is excluded Supply/Demand data TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT METAL PRODUCTS EXCLUDING MACHINERY MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS AND MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT FERTILIZERS AND PESTICIDES CHEMICAL & FERTILIZER MINERALS MANGANESE MAIZE PAPER NON-FERROUS METAL BASIC INDUSTRIES INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS NON-METALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS BRICKS BEVERAGES PERISHABLES OTHER BREAK BULK WOOD AUTOMOTIVE CHROME OTHER CHEMICALS CEMENT STEEL SUGAR CRUDE LIMESTONE PROCESSED FOODS FUEL OTHER DRY BULK IRON STONE Tons(' ) Source: Centre for Supply Chain Management, University of Stellenbosch # 17

18 The economy will grow the fastest, by weight, in basic energy related commodities, basic earthworks, building related and food commodities Supply/Demand data: Growth in tons 2006 to 2026 TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT METAL PRODUCTS EXCLUDING MACHINERY MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS AND ACCESSORIES CHEMICAL & FERTILIZER MINERALS FERTILIZERS AND PESTICIDES MAIZE MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT MANGANESE PAPER PERISHABLES BEVERAGES NON-FERROUS METAL BASIC INDUSTRIES INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS NON-METALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS BRICKS OTHER BREAK BULK WOOD SUGAR CEMENT OTHER CHEMICALS CHROME AUTOMOTIVE STEEL PROCESSED FOODS CRUDE LIMESTONE FUEL OTHER DRY BULK IRON STONE COAL Tons(' ) Source: Centre for Supply Chain Management, University of Stellenbosch # 18

19 But when depicted as a % growth more beneficiated growth is expected Supply/Demand data: % Growth in tons 2006 to 2026 PERISHABLES MAIZE PERISHABLES PROCESSED FOODS SUGAR BEVERAGES CHEMICAL & FERTILIZER MINERALS COAL OTHER DRY BULK FUEL LIMESTONE STONE FERTILIZERS AND PESTICIDES PAPER CEMENT MANGANESE BRICKS CRUDE OTHER CHEMICALS NON-METALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS METAL PRODUCTS EXCLUDING MACHINERY WOOD OTHER BREAK BULK TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT IRON STEEL NON-FERROUS METAL BASIC INDUSTRIES INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS CHROME MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT AUTOMOTIVE MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS AND ACCESSORIES Source: Centre for Supply Chain Management, University of Stellenbosch # 19

20 With a continuing decline in rail operational capacity Current distribution Freight fleets are enduring. Once on the road a truck will not go away and over cropping of the vehicle fleet will make the problem worse copyright University of Stellenbosch

21 Primary flows are completely rail orientated for obvious reasons (and not reported on in further analysis) Million tons 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021, 2026 Likely and high scenario Export iron ore Likely High Growth Domestic iron ore Likely High Growth Domestic manganese Likely High Growth Export coal Magnetite Likely High Growth Likely High Growth Likely High Growth Export manganese Source: Centre for Supply Chain Management, University of Stellenbosch # 21

22 Total corridor* flows are better understood in stylized form. Our structural problem with corridors will grow. Million tons 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021, 2026 Likely and high scenario * Corridor flows for this and the following illustrations include partial flows on the corridor Coastal Rail Road Gauteng-Cape Town Rail Road Gauteng-Beitbridge (incl. Polokwane) Rail Road Gauteng-Lobatse Rail Road Gauteng-PE Rail Road # 22 Gauteng-East London Rail Road Gauteng-Nelspruit (incl. Witbank) Rail Road Gauteng-Richards Bay Rail Road Gauteng-Durban Rail Road The industry must think differently to address the growth on the two major corridors

23 Rural flows Million tons 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021, 2026 Likely and high scenario Northern Cape Rail Road North West Limpopo Rail Road Rail Road Free State Rail Road Mpumalanga Rail Road Kwazulu Natal Rail Road Western Cape Rail Road Eastern Cape Rail Road # 23

24 Agenda 1. Background 2. Global context 3. Understanding supply and demand 4. Collated flows 5. Detail flows 6. Conclusion # 24

25 The detailed commodity view can now be extracted for all corridors and rural areas. Some corridor examples: Commodities transported between Cape Town and Gauteng (One Direction) Fertilizer Automotive Iron & Steel Non-Ferrous Metal Products Stone Wood & Wood Products Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories Metal Products Excluding Machinery Transport Equipment Paper & Paper Products Industrial Chemicals Fuel & Petroleum Products Machinery and Equipment Other Breakbulk Cement Other Chemicals Non-Metallic Mineral Products Beverages Perishables Limestone Processed Foods Other Dry bulk Note: The 3 commodities referred to in the graph as other break bulk, other dry bulk, and perishables are the remainder of the commodities (i.e. excl. the Top 28) grouped together Source: Centre for Supply Chain Management, University of Stellenbosch # 25 Million tons

26 Between Gauteng and Cape Town (One Direction) Cement Non-Ferrous Metal Products Transport Equipment Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories Machinery and Equipment Chemicals & Fertilizer Minerals Industrial Chemicals Metal Products Excluding Machinery Maize Automotive Other Dry bulk Fertilizer Wood & Wood Products Stone Bricks Fuel & Petroleum Products Non-Metallic Mineral Products Other Breakbulk Paper & Paper Products Beverages Perishables Iron & Steel Other Chemicals Processed Foods Coal Note: The 3 commodities referred to in the graph as other break bulk, other dry bulk, and perishables are the remainder of the commodities (i.e. excl. the Top 28) grouped together Source: Centre for Supply Chain Management, University of Stellenbosch # 26 Million tons

27 Between Durban and Gauteng (One Direction) Non-Ferrous Metal Products Chemicals & Fertilizer Minerals Iron & Steel Coal Stone Bricks Maize Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories Metal Products Excluding Machinery Wood & Wood Products Industrial Chemicals Transport Equipment Other Breakbulk Fertilizer Limestone Beverages Perishables Non-Metallic Mineral Products Machinery and Equipment Paper & Paper Products Cement Other Chemicals Automotive Other Dry bulk Processed Foods Fuel & Petroleum Products Note: The 3 commodities referred to in the graph as other break bulk, other dry bulk, and perishables are the remainder of the commodities (i.e. excl. the Top 28) grouped together Source: Centre for Supply Chain Management, University of Stellenbosch # 27 Million tons

28 Between Gauteng and Durban (One Direction) Transport Equipment Cement Fertilizer Machinery and Equipment Bricks Metal Products Excluding Machinery Limestone Maize Non-Metallic Mineral Products Fuel & Petroleum Products Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories Non-Ferrous Metal Products Chemicals & Fertilizer Minerals Paper & Paper Products Other Chemicals Wood & Wood Products Other Dry bulk Perishables Automotive Chrome Other Breakbulk Beverages Industrial Chemicals Stone Processed Foods Coal Iron & Steel Note: The 3 commodities referred to in the graph as other break bulk, other dry bulk, and perishables are the remainder of the commodities (i.e. excl. the Top 23) grouped together Source: Centre for Supply Chain Management, University of Stellenbosch # 28 Million tons

29 Agenda 1. Background 2. Global context 3. Understanding supply and demand 4. Collated flows 5. Detail flows 6. Conclusion # 29

30 Conclusion The model is used extensively in South Africa Transnet sponsors the work and is a user, but wider application and use is possible with extensions Researchers from the University of Utrecht are involved. Discussions are underway to involve researchers from the University of Antwerp Additional funding could extend the work into: An improved view of total cost, especially adding externalities and environmental cost Understanding regional specific parameters (decay factors, global maritime freight flows) An opportunity to do a more detailed presentation at the next meeting will be appreciated # 30

31 Thank you # 31

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