Transtools Training Seminar

Transcription

1 Transtools Training Seminar 16 th December 2011 Copenhagen Sean Newton, Ruairidh Smith 21 December, 2011

2 Freight Modelling Overview of Lecture Freight modelling in TRANS-TOOLS v2.5 This lecture will describe the freight demand modelling principles used in TEN-Connect 2 project, and How to apply the Transtools freight modelling methodologies in practice.

3 Introduction Freight Modelling Addresses: Spatial production and consumption patterns in the real (physical) economy. Estimation of flow matrices by product. Structure of transport networks, including modal interchanges. Estimation of transport costs. Assignment of freight flows to networks. Assignment to vehicle categories.

4 Transtools Freight Methodology Mode Chain Concept Origin Interchange 2 Interchange 1 Destination UK Road Sea BE Port Rail UK Port Germany

5 Transtools Freight Model Function Comparative Statics: If economy changes.. If transport policy changes.. If transport costs change.. If networks change.. How much will traffic grow? How will it be routed? Via which modes?

6 Transtools 2.5 Freight Part 1 of Lecture: Freight demand modelling principles used in TEN- Connect 2 project. Model system called: Transtools 2.5F Previously TT1 FP6 project, (TNO et al) TT2 Ten Connect project, 2008, (Tetraplan et al)

7 Four Step Approach Step 1: Construct Base Year Mode Chains Origin Interchange 2 Interchange 1 Destination Estimate end to end flows. Per Product By Tonnage Assign routes via ports and inland hubs. Mode Chain Builder

8 Chain Estimation

9 Four Step Approach Step 2: Trade Forecasting Origin Interchange 2 Interchange 1 Destination Estimate change in transport demand. Exogenous forecasts (itren2030 project) Applied to end-points: Economic Growth at Origin and Destination Demand for Brazilian coffee in Vienna expected to grow by 25% in 2030.

10 Step 3: Mode Split Model: Re-estimating Chains Four Step Approach UK Road Sea BE Port Rail UK Port Germany Road Sea FR Port Road UK Port Germany Chain structures are re-calculated using forecast year network and costs. Some traffic shifts from Belgian to French ports in Some rail traffic shifts to road.

11 Four Step Approach Step 4: Assignment UK Road Sea FR Port Rail ROAD Dest1 Dest2 UK Port Germany Orig1 Tonnes 11 Tonnes 12 Orig2 Tonnes 21 Tonnes 22 SEA Dest1 Dest2 Orig1 Tonnes 11 Tonnes 12 RAIL Dest1 Dest2 Orig2 Tonnes 21 Tonnes 22 Orig1 Tonnes 11 Tonnes 12 Orig2 Tonnes 21 Tonnes 22 Chain structures are split into Modal O/D Matrices. Tonnes converted to Vehicles. Detailed assignment to single-mode networks.

12 Recap In Ten Connect 2: Freight was modelled using: - a multi-modal, chain based methodology. This was NEW. Earlier versions of Transtools did not use this approach.

13 Ten Connect 2 in practice In Ten Connect 2 (TT2.5) : Freight Modelling was decoupled from the main body of Transtools. Undertaken in-house by NEA. Result: TT2.5 has no built-in freight model.

14 Options for Modelling Freight Now 1. Create Distributable Module for TT2.5 Freight. Ruled out due to cost, speed and complexity. 2. Use original TT1 and TT2 modules. Ruled out due to incompatible software and limitations. 3. Use software from TT3 project. Ruled out due to expected delivery date.

15 Preferred Option Re-construction of TT1 documented methodologies into a simplified software module: a single TT Freight module. - NUTS3 Chains - NEAC Trade Model - TT Freight Mode Split Model All re-written into a single module. Outputting NUTS3 matrices for assignment.

16 Open Freight Module Part 2 of lecture: How to model freight in Transtools in practice.

17 Overview Fixed Base Year NUTS 3 Chain Matrix Level of Service Impedance Matrix Transtools 2.5 Economic Growth Rates New TT Freight Module Network Changes NUTS 3 Matrices for Assignment Transtools Assignment Original, intended TT freight methodology, as documented. Correctly implemented software and algorithms. Single executable: IPR Free.

18 New Four Step Approach Step 1: Base Year Mode Chains supplied as data. Origin Interchange 2 Interchange 1 Destination An input now, not a procedure.

19 New Four Step Approach Step 2: Trade Model Origin Interchange 2 Interchange 1 Destination Re-built using NEAC Handelsmodel structure. Fed by regional economic forecasts per sector, and impedance matrices.

20 T ijg = α 1* P α 2 ig * A α 3 jg * D α 4 ij * e NEAC Trade Model α 5* DUMMY T f ijg = T b ijg * ( P P f ig b ig ) α 2 * ( A A f jg b jg D f α 3 jg α 4 * ( ) * α 5 ( DUMMY( b e D jg ) f ) DUMMY( b )) Tijg the trade of commodity group g between country/region i and j in tons Pig the added value of the sector that produces commodity g in country/region i Ajg the added value of the sector that consumes commodity g in country /region j; Dij the deterrence variable representing generalized costs between capital cities of country/region i and j as a proxy for the resistance on trading DUMMY a dummy variable that captures economic co-operation between countries/regions or a specific position of (a group of) countries/regions α1,α2,α3, α4,α5 the model parameters

21 New Four Step Approach Step 3a: Mode Split Model: UK Road Sea BE Port Rail ROAD Dest1 Dest2 UK Port Germany Orig1 Tonnes 11 Tonnes 12 Orig2 Tonnes 21 Tonnes 22 SEA Dest1 Dest2 Orig1 Tonnes 11 Tonnes 12 RAIL Dest1 Dest2 Orig2 Tonnes 21 Tonnes 22 Orig1 Tonnes 11 Tonnes 12 Orig2 Tonnes 21 Tonnes 22 Chain structures are split into Modal O/D Matrices.

22 Step 3b: Mode Split Model: Logit function. New Four Step Approach ROAD Dest1 Dest2 Orig1 Tonnes 11 Tonnes 12 RAIL Dest1 Dest2 Orig2 Tonnes 21 Tonnes Orig1 Tonnes Tonnes 12 Water Dest1 Dest2 P m cij = with : l M V e e V m cij V l cij β = + m cij m 0 β k mk x cijmk Orig2 Tonnes 21 Tonnes 22 Orig1 Tonnes 11 Tonnes 12 Orig2 Tonnes 21 Tonnes 22 M: Set of available modes Pm cij: Probability Vm cij: Systematic utility xcijmk: Explanatory variable βmk: Logit parameter Logit Model applied per O/D, per product. Uses cost functions to determine Utilities (V)

23 New Four Step Approach Step 4: Assignment ROAD Dest1 Dest2 ROAD Dest1 Dest2 Orig1 Tonnes 11 Tonnes 12 Orig1 Vehicles 11 Vehicles 12 Orig2 Tonnes 21 Tonnes 22 Orig2 Vehicles 21 Vehicles 22 Tonnages converted into vehicles. Assigned together with passenger flows inside Transtools (Rapidis, Traffic Analyst System)

24 Running the module 1. Supply data path: c:\data\freight 2. Provide filename for chain matrix: my_chain_file.dat 3. Provide folder for outputs: \my_outputs 4. Provide network impedances: 1,2,3.. (scenarios are numbered) // 30 minute run-time // Assignment matrices ready for use.

25 Contacts and Links NEA Sean Newton, Yuko Kawabata, Ruairidh Smith, References TRANSTOOLS, D3 Document, TNO et al. (JRC-IPTS Website) ETIS project, NEA et al ETISplus project, NEA et al GBFM MDS-Transmodal Ltd UK Department for Transport, National Transport Model STEMM project Leeds University, Transport Studies Zurich Process, Albatras Final Report

26 Term Aggregate Meaning Transport volumes measured at national level or higher. NUTS0. Disaggregate Transport models measured at sub-national levels e.g. NUTS3. Trade A buy/sell transaction. Foreign Trade Trade across international borders (import or export). Terminology Consignment Traffic Door to Door Quay to Quay Production Consumption Origin Destination Chain A bundle of goods that is being sent as part of a single trade transaction. Relating to vehicle or vessel movements in a transport system. From point of sale to point of purchase. From transport facility to transport facility within a given mode. Relating to the transformation of resources into a product. Relating to the use of a product. The starting point for a flow. The end point for a flow. A sequence e.g. of traffic flows. Transshipment The exchange of a consignment between one ship (or other transport type) and another. Modal Transfer The exchange of a consignment between one mode of transport and another. Mode Chain The representation of a trade flow as a chain of traffic flows, identifying the intermediate modal transfer points.