National Freight Demand Study 2014

Transcription

1 National Freight Demand Study 2014 Key Findings and Implications For Rail Murray King

2 Please note This presentation is based on the data published in the NFDS Views and conclusions expressed are mine And not those of the Ministry of Transport Nor Deloitte or the other authors; nor KiwiRail Data is on the basis of weight of goods transported, excluding containers.

3 Background to the study Update of 2008 study, similar methodology GFC, changing transport patterns, time meant 2008 study no longer useful Freight very important to economy, its impact needs to be understood: 50 tonnes transported per person per year Understanding of major flows, and how they might develop Impact of international trade Planning uses transport policy road, rail, coastal shipping investment Full report available at: DemandStudyMar2014.pdf.

4 General approach Similar to 2008 More commodities examined in detail, eg waste, fish, or with better information, such as livestock. Higher proportion of tonnage accounted for by the commodity analysis So scaling for road not as extensive Forecast more detailed than 2008; based on commodity forecasts, from industry and official sources, or economic projections.

5 NFDS 2014: Key findings Data for 2012 (2008: ) 236 million tonnes (2008: 226m) 26.3 billion net tonne km (2008: 26.7bn) Growth in agricultural commodities, logs and dairy Commodities linked to domestic demand static or declined.

6 The Position in 2012 : Modal Shares Tonnes Tonne kms Figure 1 Dominance of road transport particularly in terms of tonnages The Freight Task in 2012 by Mode Less so for tonnekms because of longer movements by rail and coastal shipping Richard Paling Consulting 6

7 Commodities dominated by agricultural and building products Tonnes Tonnekm

8 International Traffic Tonnes International trade at least a third of all freight movements 8

9 Trends Irrigation adds horticultural, dairy, capability HPMV (and 50MAX) More sophisticated supply chains: exports, retail Container weight issues Driver shortages Congestion Photo: NZTA Photo:

10 Inter and intraregional traffic total Total Tonnes (m) Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of PlenGisborne Hawke s BTaranaki Manawatu Wellington TNM West CoasCanterbury Otago Southland Total Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plen Gisborne Hawke s Ba Taranaki Manawatu Wellington TNM West Coast Canterbury Otago Southland Total Northbound SouthboundTotal Golden triangle to, fr, within, thru GT excl double counting NIMT TKMarton Excl. Gisborne MNL (S of Marlborough) Interisland Thru TK& N Chch & S, W Whole route TK CH excl internal tfc Excl. Gisborne Internal %

11 Rail tonnes (millions) Inter and intraregional traffic rail Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki Manawatu Wellington TNM West Coast Canterbury Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plen Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki Manawatu Wellington TNM West Coast Canterbury Otago Southland Grand Total Otago Southland Grand Total Northbound Southbound Total Golden triangle 7.62 To, fr, w ithin, thru GT excl double counting NIMT TKMarton Excl. Gisborne MNL (S of Marlborough) Interisland Thru TK& N Chch & S, W Whole route TK CH excl internal tfc Excl. Gisborne Internal %

12 Changes to rail flows since Difference to 2012 Million t (>=.05 mt) Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki Manawatu Wellington TNM West Coast Canterbury Otago Southland Total Northland 0.06 Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki Manawatu Wellington TNM 0.06 West Coast Canterbury Otago Southland Total

13 Rail market share 2012 Rail market shares (over 1 and =>0.1mt), % Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki Manawatu Wellington TNM West Coast Canterbury Otago Southland Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki Manawatu Wellington TNM West Coast Canterbury Otago Southland 34 59

14 Average haul Table 4.13 Estimated Average Length of Haul by Mode and Commodity 2012 (km) Commodity Group All Modes Rail Coastal Shipping Road Milk Dairy Logs Sawn Timber Panel Pulp and Paper Meat Horticulture Grain Fish Wool Other Ag Coal Petroleum L'stone,cement & fert Other Minerals Iron & Steel Retail & manufacturing Waste Livestock Concrete Aggregate General Freight All Commodities km Rail Average haul by commodity and Km 2012 Km

15 Modal Share (%) Modal split by commodity Rail Coastal Shipping Road

16 Bn tonnekms m tonnes Forecasts Built up by commodity Constraints on logs, dairy Decoupling from GDP growth in long term Consistent with earlier forecasts 58% growth in tonnes; 49% tonne km; to Actual and Predicted Growth in Freight (bn tkm) Figure Error! No text of specified style in document..1 Actual and Predicted Growth in Freight (billion tonnekms) Milk and Dairy Livestock Meat and Wool Petroleum and Coal Manufactured and retail goods Waste Logs and Timber Products Other agriculture and fish Building materials fertiliser and other minerals Steel and aluminium General Freight Figure Error! No text of specified style in document..1 Total Freight Forecasts by Broad Commodity Group 2012 to 2042 (million tonnes)

17 Destination Growth to 2042 : Regional Patterns Million tonnes Auckland Canterbury Waikato Bay of Plenty Origin Northland Southland Manawatu Hawke s Bay Otago Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough Freight Movements 2012 and 2042 Wellington Taranaki West Coast Gisborne Auckland and Canterbury are key regions for freight Richard Paling Consulting 17

18 Rail Forecasts Commodity Milk Dairy Export logs Other logs and residues Sawn Timber Panel Pulp and Paper Meat Horticulture Grain Fish Wool Other Agriculture Coal Petroleum Limestone, cement & fertiliser Other Minerals Iron & Steel Retail & manufacturing (1) Waste Livestock Concrete Table 7.39 Forecast Commodity Flows by Mode 2042 Revised Modal Shares Total Rail Coastal Shipping Road million tonnes Modal Share (%) 4% 6 16% 2% 1% 13% 41% 31% 2% 5% 7% 15% 1% 54% 2% 15% 14% 13% million tonnes Modal Share (%) 2 31% 9% 2% million tonnes Modal Share (%) 96% 4 84% 98% 99% 87% 59% 69% 98% 95% 93% 85% 99% 27% 69% 89% 85% 86% 85% million tonnes Aggregate General Freight Total % % 341.0

19 Implications for rail Overall growth from 16m to 24m tonnes by 2042 Logs and dairy flattening out major commodities for rail Logs in particular decline after about 2032, still substantial volumes Assumed constant market shares for most commodities Should be possible to increase its share of manufactured dairy And manufactured goods Coal difficult to predict change in industry structure? Decline in share because of Bathurst use of shipping

20 Key Findings and Overall Assessment Growth in freight will be substantial but will be tempered by constraints in production for key agricultural commodities particularly dairy products and logs Road transport will remain the dominant mode for the movement of goods, but still significant role for rail. Growth within Regions varies but is forecast to be highest in Auckland (83% growth)and Christchurch (74%). Golden Triangle growing slightly faster than the average (impact of declining logs). The pressure on the transport network will grow with competing demands. Mainly intraregional can rail improve its share here? 20

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