Vegetable Oil Outlook

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1 Vegetable Oil Outlook Presented In Partnership With: Golden Brands, LLC April 2011 Beeson & Associates, Inc (502)

2 Jan-90 Oct-91 Jul-93 Apr-95 Jan-97 Oct-98 Jul-00 Apr-02 Jan-04 Oct-05 Jul-07 Apr-09 Jan-11 cents per lb Soy Wax Prices 100 Soy Wax Price History

3 1-Mar 12-Apr 24-May 5-Jul 16-Aug 27-Sep 8-Nov 20-Dec 31-Jan Per Lb Soybean and Palm Oil Futures $0.60 $0.55 Soybean Oil Futures & Palm Futures (Nearby Month) (Second Month) Soybean $0.50 $0.45 $0.40 $0.35 Palm $0.30

4 Agenda World Oil Situation Palm Oil Outlook Global Malaysian Palm Oil Soybean & Soybean Oil Outlook World United States Price Expectations Pricing Strategy

5 Vegetable Oil Producers Top Producers of Vegetable Oil 2% 2% 2% 5% 5% 6% 15% 19% 14% Indonesia Malaysia China EU-27 United States Argentina Brazil India Ukraine Russia Canada Rest of the World 7% 13% 11%

6 What Types of Oils Are Produced? Total World Vegetable Oil Production 8% 16% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 33% Palm Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower Palm Kernel Peanut Cottonseed Coconut Olive 28% Total Production = mmt

7 World Oilseed Balance Sheet (MMT) 2006/ / / / /11 Production Trade Crush Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 22% 18% 17% 20% 18% World oilseeds include Cottonseed, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybeans, & Sunflowers It does not include Palm Oil

8 World Vegetable Oil Balance Sheet (MMT) 2006/ / / / /11 Production Trade Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 10% 9% 10% 9% 6% World veg oil include Coconut, Cottonseed, Olive, Palm, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed (Canola), Soybeans, & Sunflowers

9 Vegetable Oil Exports Top Vegetable Oil Exporters 12% 1% 1% 1% 7% 1% 1% 3% 3% 35% Malaysia Indonesia Argentina Brazil United States Benin Papua New Guinea EU-27 United Arab Emirates Thailand Rest of the World 35% Total Volume = 44.8 Mmt

10 Vegetable Oil Imports (2010/11 forecast) Top Vegetable Oil Importers 20% China 32% India EU-27 Pakistan Egypt United States Bangladesh 17% Iran Malaysia 1% 2% 3% Vietnam Rest of the World 3% 3% 3% 5% 12% Total Volume = 43.7 Mmt

11 La Niña Hurts Palm Yield in

12 World Palm Oil Balance Sheet (MMT) 2006/ / / / /11 Production Trade Consumption Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 12% 10% 12% 10% 6%

13 tmt Malaysian Palm Oil Production 2200 Crude Palm Oil Production Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

14 tmt Malaysian Palm Oil Stocks 2400 Crude Palm Oil Stocks Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

15 1-Mar 12-Apr 24-May 5-Jul 16-Aug 27-Sep 8-Nov 20-Dec 31-Jan Per Lb Palm Oil Futures $0.60 Malaysian Palm Oil Futures (Second Month) $0.55 $0.50 $0.45 $0.40 $0.35 $0.30

16 World Summary Global supplies of oilseeds are large La Niña reduced palm oil supplies Global demand remains very strong Vegetable oil stocks are tight through 2010/11 Prices have been at their highest level since 2008

17 Soybean Processing 12 lbs of soybean oil One Bushel of Soybeans = 60 lbs 48 lbs of soybean meal

18 World Soybean Balance Sheet (mil bu) 2006/ / / / /11 Production Trade Crush Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 32% 26% 23% 29% 26%

19 2000/ / / / / /11 Soybean Production Brazil Argentina United States

20 World Soybean Importers 10% Top Soybean Importers 3% 3% 2% 13% 2% 2% 2% 54% China EU-27 Mexico Japan Taiwan Thailand Egypt Indonesia Rest of World Total = 3.89 billion bushels

21 Mmt Chinese Demand for Soybeans 60 Annual Chinese Soybean Imports

22 U.S. Vegetable Oils US Vegetable Oil Production (2010/11) 5% 4% 3% 1% 0% Soybean Rapeseed Cottonseed Sunflower Peanut Olive 87% Total Production = 21.8 billion lbs

23 U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand 2006/ / / / / /12 February USDA Planted mil acres Harvested Yield bu / acre Production mil bu 3,197 2,677 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,355 Beginning Stocks Supply 3,655 3,261 3,187 3,512 3,495 3,550 Crush 1,808 1,803 1,662 1,752 1,665 1,660 Exports 1,116 1,159 1,279 1,501 1,590 1,575 F/S/R Total Usage 3,081 3,056 3,047 3,361 3,355 3,360 Ending Stocks Ending Stocks / Use 19% 7% 5% 4% 4% 6%

24 million acres How Many Acres Do We Need? Corn + Soybean Planted Acres Needed to Maintain Stocks 2011/12 Trend y = x R² =

25 US Soybean Oil Balance Sheet 2004/ / / / / / / /12 February USDA Beginning Stocks 1,076 1,699 3,010 3,085 2,485 2,861 3,358 2,653 Production mil lbs 19,360 20,387 20,489 20,567 18,745 19,614 19,000 18,940 Supply 20,462 22,122 23,536 23,718 21,319 22,577 22,473 21,718 Domestic Usage 17,439 17,959 18,575 18,327 16,265 15,863 17,100 17,400 Bio-Diesel 488 1,555 2,762 2,981 2,021 1,681 2,900 3,100 Exports 1,324 1,153 1,877 2,907 2,193 3,357 2,800 1,950 Total Usage 18,762 19,112 20,451 21,235 18,459 19,219 19,900 19,350 Ending Stocks 1,699 3,010 3,085 2,484 2,861 3,358 2,573 2,368 Ending Stocks / Use 9% 16% 15% 12% 15% 17% 13% 12%

26 3-Mar 31-Mar 28-Apr 26-May 24-Jun 23-Jul 20-Aug 20-Sep 18-Oct 15-Nov 14-Dec 12-Jan 10-Feb cents / lb Soybean Oil Futures $0.65 Nearby Soybean Oil Futures $0.60 $0.55 $0.50 $0.45 $0.40 $0.35

27 soybean oil: $/cwt Crude Oil & Soybean Oil Correlation $80 Crude & Soybean Oil Correlation (since January 2008) $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 y = x R² = 0.76 $20 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 crude oil: $/barrel

28 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 crude oil: $/barrel Crude Oil & Soybean Oil Prices Crude & Soybean Oil Price History $160 $80 $140 Crude Oil $70 $120 $100 $80 $60 Soybean Oil $60 $50 $40 $30 soybean oil: $/cwt $40 $20 $20 $10

29 Mil lbs Monthly Soybean Oil Used for Biodiesel 400 Soybean Oil Used for Biodiesel

30 Soybean Summary Global soybean supplies are adequate China dominates global soybean market US soybean stocks are tight, and acreage is key Despite large U.S. vegetable oil stocks, prices are high on strong global demand Biodiesel industry can make a big splash

31 Current El Nino Pattern October February

32 Low of December Soybean Oil Production Change from Year Ago Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

33 Soybean Oil Price Spread in the Summer $100 Soybean Oil Dec Futures Spread Jun-Sep Adjusted to 2/28/11 Close $90 Feb 28th close price = $58.16 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 Current Expected 2011 Soybean Supply vs. Prev Year Use = 106% Soybean Supply vs. Previous Year Use (Smallest to Largest)

34 cents per pound Soybean Oil Price Spread in the Fall Change from Last Day of March to Oct-Dec Low December Soybean Oil Mar price = Current Expected 2010 Soybean Supply vs. Prev Year Use = 106% Soybean Supply vs. Previous Year Use (Smallest to Largest)

35 Pricing Example Theoretical Pricing Model Futures $58.00 Basis $0.20 Priced individually Crude Oil $58.20 Processing $25.00 Wax $83.20 Freight $1.55 Negotiated with vendor Delivered Cost $84.75

36 What is Basis? Decatur, IL Basis Ground- Zero Basis values are reflect conditions at the major processing point, Decatur, Illinois Basis increases at processing points as you move west to east Beeson & Associates, Inc. (502)

37 Decatur Basis Beeson & Associates, Inc. (502)

38 Summary World supplies of oilseeds are large Vegetable oil prices are high on strong export demand and tight global supplies Biodiesel and exports are the key demand drivers for US prices Seasonal tendencies suggest little downside for soybean oil Pricing individual components can provide savings

39 Thank You! Contact Information: Alex Norton Beeson & Associates, Inc. (502)

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