Colombia and its Energy Potential
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1 Colombia and its Energy Potential by David Yanovich Partner Cerrito Capital Bogotá, Colombia August 7, 2013 Introduction Over the last decade, the Colombian economy has experienced tremendous growth thanks to renewed investment in its most important sectors of production. Reforms to the regulatory framework for development of natural resources in energy and mining, implemented from under the leadership of President Álvaro Uribe, have proved successful in attracting both local and foreign investors to the energy, mining and oil and gas sectors. While this development is welcome, it poses new challenges for Colombia. On the one hand, the nation is having an intense debate about expansion of the extractive industries sectors versus environmental sustainability and the protection of minority and community rights. Most of society believes that both can be done and that this debate represents a false dichotomy. There is a recent publication by the Comptroller General s office of an extensive study, soon to be a book, regarding how to mining benefits in the country. The study, led by prestigious economist Luis Jorge Garay and a group of interdisciplinary professionals, is the latest manifestation of this
2 lively discussion. But there is growing pressure from government environmental agencies, local communities and international NGOs regarding the oil and gas and, particularly, the mining sectors, concerning their sustainability. Some former ministers of the environment, for example, have gone so far as to say that mining should be prohibited all together. There is also increasing legislative activity, mainly by politicians who see the oil, gas and mining sectors as a new source of wealth and ultimately of votes. They have been promoting several legislative initiatives that try to increase the government s take from the extractive industries, on top of the royalty scheme already in place. What is at stake is very important. Colombia cannot afford the luxury of not developing a strong and robust mining and oil and gas sectors. Such development does not imply, as many suggest, an environmental disaster. Moreover, tinkering with the current government take could very well 'kill the goose that laid the golden egg.' Maintaining current policies is the best path forward to ensure Colombia's future development. This was true in the past. When Colombia discovered Cusiana and Cupiagua in the late 1980s, legislators repeatedly decided to increase the government s take. As a result, by the mid-1990s the country had all but stopped exploration in new areas, particularly with regard to oil. As a matter of fact, during 1999, only a single exploratory well was drilled in all of Colombia. Mining, for its part, was concentrated in two or three very big and important companies, particularly in coal, with a plethora of small and medium-sized legal and illegal entrepreneurs trying to make ends meet with very poor technical operations and with, at best, mediocre health and environmental policies. All this changed with the commodity boom of the past decade, when the country experienced an unprecedented growth in foreign direct investment in both the mining and oil and gas sectors. The remainder of this paper is structured as follows: Part II discusses the global factors affecting energy supply and demand; Part III looks at how Colombia could benefit from what seems to be a growing appetite for energy on a global scale; Part IV takes a brief look at Colombia s potential role as a regional electricity provider; Part V outlines the most important challenges for the country s energy sector, as well as some recommendations for dealing with them. Finally, the paper explains why Colombia cannot afford the luxury of leaving its natural-resource wealth undeveloped. Global Factors of Energy Supply and Demand The incentive for the development of Colombia's mining and energy development program is tied directly to estimates of global energy demand and supply. According to estimates by many sources, world energy demand will grow more than 1.5% per year until 2030, with non-oecd countries accounting for 96% of such growth. This increasing demand will be met with growing supply. The lion s share of supply will still come from non-renewable sources, particularly oil, although renewable sources will have a larger growth rate during the next 20 years, according to the latest BP World Energy Outlook report. Figure 1 shows world supply and demand to
3 Figure 1. World Energy Demand and Supply Source: BP World Energy Outlook, 2030 Growth in energy demand will have important implications for supply. While OECD countries will remain flat in terms of consumption, there will be a shift in the fuel mix toward more renewable energies, including increased use of natural gas for power generation as a result of the shale gas boom in the United States. The rest of the world, developing countries in particular, will increase their oil and coal consumption, as these are the only available sources of energy to meet their needs. Oil and coal are key industries for development, and given proven technologies, investors with sufficient capital will target economically-feasible fields and mines in Colombia and throughout the world. What is happening with shale gas and shale oil is nothing short of a revolution. From being one of the largest importers of natural gas in the world, the United States is now thinking about exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) to supply global markets, something that marks a dramatic shift in the trade of such commodity. More dramatic still will be the shift in oil. While the United States will always import some crude oil from the rest of the world because of refining restrictions, the United States will also become a net exporter of crude sometime between 2020 and This will not only change the economics of the sector on a global level; it will also shift geopolitical power in a dramatic way. For Colombia in particular, this means that the country will have to establish deeper commercial and political relationships with the Pacific Rim countries, where the demand for energy imports in particular is expect to increase. The United States, on the other hand, will increasingly become self-sufficient in supply and will effectively be a net exporter of oil and gas by This trend is outlined in the International Energy Agency s World Energy Outlook report, published in November With this scenario, India, China and the rest of the developing world will increasingly look to world markets to supply their energy needs. It is expected that India s import of energy will rise threefold in the next twenty years, while China s will rise fivefold, according to several sources, including the OECD, BP and others. Euro Zone imports will remain relatively flat, and the 3
4 United States, as explained before, will reduce, in absolute terms, its imports of energy, particularly natural gas and coal. Colombia s Role in the Shifting Global Energy Market The right question for Colombia, then, should not be whether the country should participate in the growing world demand for energy, but rather how it can play a role in this shifting environment. The potential for Colombia to do so is definitely there, as the numbers in Figure 2 show. Even though it is expected that local demand will roughly double during the next 20 years, Colombia has an enormous potential to become an important global supplier of coal, oil, gas and electricity. Figure 2 shows an estimate of potential resources in the country. Figure 2. Colombia Energy Potential Source: National Hydrocarbons Agency, Ministry of Mines, Mining and Energy Planning Unit, Biofuels Federation, Corpoema. Data taken directly from the above sources, which use several methodologies to estimate Colombia s energy potential. 4
5 As the estimates in Figure 2 show, Colombia has great potential for growth in both nonrenewable and renewable sources of energy. Non-renewables, such as oil, gas and coal, would supply increasing energy demand in developing countries, while renewable fuels, particularly biodiesel and ethanol, are set to supply, in very competitive terms, the shift in energy usage in OECD countries, in particular the United States and Europe, as I outlined in section II above. Colombia as a Regional Provider of Electricity Colombia in the past has been a competitive supplier of electricity to Ecuador and Venezuela, given its high levels of hydroelectricity generation. Today there are discussions underway to see if the countries in the Pacific Rim of South America could share common transmission lines, which would connect energy-rich Colombia to energy-strapped Chile. This would imply tremendous growth opportunities for the country. President Piñera of Chile recently noted, for example, that the main obstacle to maintaining five percent annual growth rate in Chile will be insufficient electricity. Colombia could also become an important electricity supplier to Panama. Challenges to Expansion of Colombia s Energy and Mining Sectors and Policy Recommendations Given the above discussion, one would think that Colombia would have a clear vision regarding how to tap into the enormous amount of wealth that could increase the country s development levels for current and future generations. Unfortunately, this is not the case. It is true that Colombia has made important and successful efforts in attracting investment to its extractive industry and energy sectors. But it is also true that there are many who believe that the country is facing an environmental disaster in the form of mining, oil, gas and energy exploitation, and that activities to exploit these resources should be all but halted. Still others believe that these riches should be exploited but should be taxed further. Finally, there are those who believe that Colombia has a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make a significant development leap in one generation. If the current fiscal regime is kept in place, it is estimated that the country will generate at least $53 billion in royalties during the next ten years, a whopping 16% of current GDP. This does not include income tax on increasing profits in the mining, energy, and oil and gas sectors, or the dividend that Ecopetrol distributes. 1 Factoring in these amounts roughly doubles available resources to around $100 billion in the next ten years. Colombia has never seen a windfall opportunity to generate wealth such as the one that this generation is facing. The development of these resources, however, needs to be done correctly from a sustainability perspective. There is technology in place that allows for the extraction of natural resources with environmentally-friendly methods, as Canada and the United States have 1 Ecopetrol is the largest oil company in Colombia, and one of the top 50 in the world. The Government has an 89.9% stake in the company, which is valued at over $110 billion, and distributes over $4 billion of dividends every year. 5
6 proved for many years. Moreover, power generation in the country is set to grow mostly through hydro plants, a sustainable source of energy. Colombia must move toward a more strict and steady regulation with regard to the consultation process with local communities, which today wield enormous power and influence over the development of energy projects. This is a power that is given by an unregulated provision in the Constitution. While local communities should have the right to voice their opinions and concerns regarding projects being built in their backyard, the process should seek to build a consensus regarding the correct execution of investments and not be a blank slate for communities to oppose projects for any and all reasons. The latter only generates incentives for communities to seek higher rents from potential investments, sometimes making them unviable. There are best practices and technologies in place that allow for the sustainable exploitation of Colombia s natural resources from environmental and social perspectives. These are the practices that the country should put in place and demand from companies investing in the power, mining, and oil and gas sectors, rather than having ill-defined processes that encourage blind opposition towards their exploitation. The government needs to regulate and control these activities so as to guarantee sustainability in the long term. The other big area of concern relates to current initiatives that have been presented to Congress to increase the government take of the extractive industries in Colombia. These initiatives do not originate from a genuine concern for the general well-being of society, but instead from disgruntled government officials from producing areas that lost their virtual monopoly over royalties after the Santos government passed an important royalty reform last year. The royalty reform not only dissolved their monopoly, it also impacted the corruption that usually went hand in hand with the distribution of such royalties by very weak local and state governments. The government must remain firm in not allowing the watering down of its royalty reform. Conclusion Colombia has never before been at such an important development crossroads. Colombia has to decide if energy demand is going to increase. Colombia must now decide if it is going to exploit its energy resources to meet this increased demand, and, by doing so, can increase the country s development prospects, or if it is going to sit on the sidelines while other countries accept the challenge of supplying the world with the energy it needs for the next 20 years. David Yanovich is partner and president at Cerrito Capital, a Colombian boutique investment banking firm specializing in the power, oil, gas and mining sectors in Colombia and the region. With 15 years of experience in these sectors, he was previously general manager of Colgener, a coal-fueled thermoelectric power station. Prior to that, Mr. Yanovich was managing director at Corfivalle Investment Bank. He is also a founding editor of PODER Magazine in the United States and Mexico. Mr. Yanovich sits on the boards of directors of Unigas and Llanogas in Colombia. He is a columnist for Dinero, a Colombian business magazine, and a regular contributor to special publications on the oil, gas and power sectors in Colombia. All statements of fact or expression of opinion contained in this publication are the responsibility of the authors. 6
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