PV Panels for the US

Transcription

1 PV Panels for the US Make - not Buy! Frank Faller centrotherm photovoltaics USA Inc. Silicon & Wafer Solar cell & Module Thin film module Semiconductor

2 Centrotherm: Provider of Equipment and Turnkey Solutions for the Production of... Poly Silicon Ingot Wafer Cell Module PV Farm 2

3 Outline Introduction Centrotherm Market Value Chain Poly Silicon Route PV Panel Production 3

4 History: In PV Equipment Business since Major order for the construction of a poly-silicon factory in Qatar Cooperation with Reis Robotics in the area of integrated process and automation technology 2009 Realization of the largest to-date turnkey solar cell production line of 250 MW annual capacity First Silicon Out" at poly silicon equipment customers in Asia Expansion of turnkey product range: crystalline module production 2008 Foundation of centrotherm SiTec GmbH - Bundling of expertise in the solar silicon area Foundation of sales and service companies in Italy and the USA Acquisition of FHR Anlagenbau GmbH (Sputtering equipment) 2007: IPO of centrotherm photovoltaics AG; Admission to the TecDAX 2006 Entry into the solar silicon business Delivery of first turnkey solar cell production lines 2005: Foundation of centrotherm photovoltaics AG Separation of business units Foundation of centrotherm thermal solutions GmbH & Co. KG Cooperation agreement for research projects with the University of Konstanz, Germany Primary supplier of key equipment to well-known solar cell producers 2000 Joint research projects with the Fraunhofer Institute für Solare Systeme, Germany Entry into the Asian market 1979: First photovoltaic products supplied to well-known Fraunhofer Gesellschaft and Telefunken Systemtechnik GmbH 1976: Foundation of centrotherm Elektrische Anlagen GmbH 4

5 Centrotherm International Presence centrotherm HQ, Blaubeuren CTPV Korea GP Solar, Constance Marietta, Georgia, USA Treviso, Italy Zaporozhye, Ukraine (Project company) CTPV Shanghai Suwon, Korea Shanghai, China Taiwan FHR, Dresden Frankfurt/Oder Hanover Singapore Ottendorf-Okrilla CTPV Taiwan Dresden Abensberg Martinsried Blaubeuren Burghausen Constance Headquarters Locations in Germany and International Sales & Service Companies CTPV Singapore India and Qatar in foundation 5

6 Group Structure 6

7 Key Financial Figures 2009 Sales Breakdown by Region and Product 2009 Rest of World 46.3 (9.1%) Rest of Europe 53.8 (10.6%) Germany Total: 47.2 (9.3%) Asia in million (71.1%) Service & Replacement parts 16.8 (3.3%) Single Equipment Consulting & Engineering 16.1 (3.2%) Total: Other 3.0 (0.6%) Turnkey Production Lines (23.1%) (69.8%) Export Quota: 90.7% Revenue 2010 as of June 30: 278 million 7

8 Market position of centrotherm photovoltaics AG Source: VLSI Research 8

9 Selected References Silicon & Wafer Solar cell & Module Thin film module Sunshine Asia Silicon 9

10 Outline Introduction Centrotherm Market Value Chain Poly Silicon Route PV Panel Production 10

11 US Renewable Resources Resource Solar PV/CSP) Wind Geothermal Water Power Biopower Theoretical Potential 206,000 GW (PV) 11,100GW (CSP) 8,000 GW (onshore) 2,200 GW (offshore to 50 nm) 39 GW (conventional) 520 GW (EGS) 4 GW (co-produced) 140 GW 78 GW centrotherm photovoltaics AG 2010 Texas Renewables, San Antonio Nov

12 The Sun provides every hour as much energy as mankind consumes in one year Source: EPIA 12

13 Global PV Production Capacities Source: Photon International, March

14 Leading Companies Source: Photon International, March

15 Market Source: SEIA 15

16 Market Source: SEIA 16

17 Largest PV Installation in the US 17

18 Centrotherm Research Market Development and Segmentation until 2013 GW ground mounted systems commercial roof top residential roof top Source: centrotherm photovoltaics, EuPD Thin film gaining market share c-si dominant shortfall of Spanish market & finance crisis 2009 mainly affecting ground mounted PV systems Additional FIT cut discussion in Germany for second half 2010 (no support for farmland solar system and 16% cut) nevertheless bright outlook dominated by c-si technology 18

19 EPIA: Market Scenarios until

20 EPIA: US Market Scenarios 20

21 Cost of PV Electricity Source: U.S. DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program. Note: Retail price in most East Coast US states as well as California is 0.15 $ / kwh; this gives rise to PV electrcity being competitive in these markets today 21

22 PV Electricity vs. Actual Consumer Rate NREL study looked at 1000 cities nationwide Meaningful population centers at or near Grid Parity 22

23 PV Electricity vs. Actual Consumer Rate 2015 with 0.5% annual rate hike Includes: ITC only Falling system prices Almost half of market below grid parity 98% within 5 cents/ kwh +0.5% p.a. 23

24 PV Electricity vs. Actual Consumer Rate 2015 with 1.0% annual rate hike +1.0% p.a. Includes: ITC only Falling system prices Almost two thirds of market below grid parity 99% within 5 cents/ kwh no concern about demand for PV But what does it mean for building manucacturing facilities?? 24

25 Unlimited Market with Grid Parity (consumer electricity rate) World at 2.5 /Wp cost of installed PV system 0.40 Average household electricity price in /kwh Installed System Price 2.50 / Wp Germany France Italy Taiwan Greece Spain Portugal India Hawaii California Above Grid Blue Line: Parity Grid Parity Australia Texas bubble size = market size Sun Irradiation [kwh/m²/year] 25

26 Outline Introduction Centrotherm Market Value Chain Poly Silicon Route PV Panel Production 26

27 Polysilicon Production Silicon Ingot/ Wafer Solar Cell Module Main stream today: TCS / Siemens technology Feedstock mg-si: t/t Polysilicon Electricity consumption: 165 > 200 kwh/kg Other 10% Key drivers of production cost Electricity (site selection!) 26% 45% Depreciation CAPEX depreciation (=> output of reactors and converter technology: ) Electricity Production cost: /kg (including feedstock: mg-si) Materials 17% 2% Labor cost 27

28 Ingot/Wafer Manufacturing Silicon Ingot/ Wafer Solar Cell Module Competition between multi and mono material Key processes: crystallisation, bricking, wafering Wafer thickness typical 2010: 200 µm (low end 180 µm) Key drivers of processing cost (multi): Line throughput (= CAPEX depreciation) Materials: - crucibles - slurry - wire Processing cost: /wafer (excluding feedstock: polysilicon) Other Electricity 4% 4% 60% Materials Depreciation 30% 2% Labor cost 28

29 Solar Cell Manufacturing Silicon Ingot/ Wafer Solar Cell Module Solar cell device technology today: screen printed cell moving towards selective emitter technology Typical production line size MW Industry average efficiency 2010: % on multi wafer Key drivers of processing cost Solar cell efficiency (=> Wp!) Electricity 3% Other 5% Line throughput (= CAPEX depreciation) Materials: - Ag / Al pastes - Process media 37% Depreciation Processing cost: /W p (excluding feedstock: wafers) Materials 52% 3% Labor cost 29

30 Module Manufacturing Silicon Ingot/ Wafer Solar Cell Module Typical module design today: - 60 cells per module, 220 W p - glass / backsheet laminate - framed Key processes: - stringing, tabbing, interconnection - lamination Courtesy of Reis Robotics Key driver of processing cost: Materials! Glass 1.6 m 2 /module EVA 3.2 m 2 /module Backsheet 1.6 m 2 /module Frame 5.2 m/module Junction box 1 pcs/module Materials Electricity Other Depreciation 0% Labor cost 8% 1% 2% Processing cost: /W p (excluding feedstock: solar cells) 89% 30

31 Single Factories versus Integrated Factory Single factories Polysilicon plant Ingoting & Wafering Solar cell line Module line + Administration Integrated factory Ingoting Wafering Solar cell line MG Silicon Plant Module line Power plant Solar academy Polysilicon plant Administration 31

32 From Ton s of Silicon to MW s of Modules: 2010 Silicon Ingot/ Wafer Solar Cell Module single factories % -0.5% 2700 t 105 Mio Wafer 387 MW Cells 379 MW Modules fully integrated factory t 107 Mio Wafer 403 MW Cells 395 MW Modules 32

33 From Ton s of Silicon to MW s of Modules: 2013 Fully integrated factory t 124 Mio Wafer 498 MW Cells 488 MW Modules Wafer thickness 170µm 45.8 wafer/kg Poly Efficiency 17.6% Yield (cell fab): 96.5% Transport losses 0% Embedding loss 2.5% Yield (module fab): 98% Transport losses 0% Silicon utilization 5.5 g/w p 33

34 Outline Introduction Centrotherm Market Value Chain Poly Silicon Route PV Panel Production 34

35 Crystalline Solar Module Module structure: >90% of c-si based modules consist of this structure; typical values and data in () Aluminum frame (h = 45 mm) Tempered cover glass (3,2 ~ 4 mm) Encapsulation foil 1 (e.g. EVA, 500 µm) Stringed solar cells (60 72 pcs.; 180 µm) Encapsulation foil 2 (e.g. EVA, 500 µm) Back sheet (electrical insulation and humidity sealing; 350 µm) Junction box 35

36 Crystalline Solar Module Competitive Module Power with Selective Emitter Cells Multi Mono and Basis: 60 cells per module, module area: 1,64 m² Multi Mono FlexLine FlexLine+ FlexLine FlexLine+ Cell efficiency 16,2% 16,8% 17,4% 18,2% Encapsulation Loss* 3,0% 3,5% 5,0% 5,5% Encapsulated cell efficiency 15,7% 16,2% 16,5% 17,2% Module power** 229 W 236 W 237 W 247 W Area utilization 88,9% 88,9% 87,4% 87,4% Module efficiency 14,0% 14,4% 14,5% 15,0% * Assumption, depends on various factors, e.g. ribbons, nitride, glass, EVA ** Module power was calculated Cell efficiency represent the guaranteed values in centrotherm turnkey lines. Module power represents target value for power guarantee in turnkey integrated factories 36

37 Fab Planning: Standard Turnkey Module Line Sorting and packaging of the modules Glass washing, labelling and 1st EVA - foil Repairing places for strings and matrices 2nd EVA foil, Back sheet foil Edge trimming Taping and Soaping Junction Box Setting ~ 14 m Foil cutting, EVA Stringer and Lay - Up ~ 90 m Interconnection Laminator 3 steps, 1 stage (Hot Spot measuring) optional Framing Flipping and visual inspection Flashing and classification Floorspace required: ~1260 sqm. = 14,000 sq.ft. 37

38 Module Line Design 38

39 Module Line Design 39

40 Module Line Design 40

41 String Matrix Lay-up 41

42 Interconnect of Strings 42

43 Automated Framing 43

44 Fab Planning Solar Module Factory - Layout Back end Module Tester Laminator Interconnection 2nd foil setting Stringer Layup Station 1st foil setting Glass washing 44

45 15 MW Module Line 45

46 100 MW Module Line 46

47 Turnkey Package includes Consulting for Building requirements Facilities (requirements) Production tools Production support tools Solar module design and technology Manufacturing technology Process / production control Documentation, staff training and support Module Certification (IEC (c-si), IEC (safety), UL 1703) 47

48 Cost of Manufacturing PV Panels Production Cost Contributions 1.4% 75% 0.4% Depreciation Equipment 3.2% 21% Depreciation Facility & Building Labor Materials and running cost Key Figures 60 MW Module Line Project - Total Capex ~$10m (bldg, facil., eqpmnt) - Output 31 modules per hour, each ~227 Watt - Processing cost ~0.4 $/Wp - 24/7 operation, 360 days - 70 operators, total 85 employees Feedstock Competitiveness -Cost advantage in Asia is small -Running operation effectively and long-term realization of economy-of scale is key -Production near markets is beneficial -Meaningful part of market in US will fall under Buy American Provision -Local brands have been able to secure price premium (e.g., SolarWorld) Processing Cost Contributions 6% 2% 12% 80% Depreciation Equipment Depreciation Facility & Building Labor Materials and running cost 48

49 Conclusion Markets & demand are strong and growing Robust technology: C-Si produces reliable, low-risk and bankable product (look at $/kwh not $/Wp!!) Turnkey solutions for production lines available Solid business plan executable Make not Buy! 49

50 Thank you for your attention! centrotherm photovoltaics USA Inc Silicon & Wafer Silicon & Wafer Solar cell & Module Solar cell & Module Thin film module Thin film module Semiconductor Semiconductor 1395 South Marietta Pkwy Bldg. 200, Suite 208 Marietta, GA 30067, USA Phone