Progress and plans for the Met Office reanalysis
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1 Progress and plans for the Met Office reanalysis Richard Renshaw Jemma Davie, Peter Jermey, Dale Barker, Amy Doherty, James Cameron, Sana Mahmood
2 November 2014, ECMWF Paul Poli et al
3 WP2 MetO deliverables D2.1/M21 Develop ensemble-variational capability D2.2/M24 Prepare extra observations (cloud fraction, disaggregated precipitation accumulations) D2.3/M30 Preliminary report with ensemble diagnostics D2.4/M42 Ensemble diagnostics report and documentation D2.14/M45 Evaluation of the regional reanalyses + uncertainty (with SMHI, DWD, UB)
4 DP2.1 Capability Regional reanalysis, from 1978, using observations from ECMWF MARS archive, with an ensemble to provide uncertainty estimates.
5 EURO4M Met Office Two year pilot reanalysis, deterministic 4DVar Provided capability to Run NWP systems at ECMWF, including suite cycling Read and process observations from MARS BUFR Use ERA GRIB start files and boundary conditions Archive in GRIB format to MARS Validate regional reanalysis fields (ECVs, precipitation)
6 EURO4M KNMI, De Bilt, April 2010
7 UERRA Met Office, Exeter, March 2014
8 UERRA Met Office 1978-now ensemble-variational reanalysis Need to add Update NWP systems at ECMWF, including ODB Generate observation reject lists Access new datasets of old obs: reprocessed ground-based GPS, AMVs Assimilate TOVS radiances Regional update of surface fields Ensemble-variational assimilation system
9 EURO CORDEX domain CO-ordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Expt Deterministic control 12km Ensemble probably 24/36km
10 Observations ECMWF Land Synop Ships & buoys Aircraft Sondes AMVs (EUMETSAT) Elsewhere SYNOP cloud (ISD?) GroundGPS (EUREF Repro2) Scatwinds (A)TOVS/AIRS/IASI/SSMIS/SEVIRIclear (ERS2, SeaWinds) GPSRO
11 Observation rejection lists Based on monthly monitoring of O-B. UKMO operational system is old, inflexible, not portable. New system being written: in python based on ODBs flexible, portable, and easy to modify already working for surface T, RH (Jemma Davie)
12 Station list for surface reports Inputs for each variable and observation type: O-B values from previous month (or months if few obs) Previous station list Process for each variable and station ID: Calculate % of O-B values > thresholds If many obs fail on bias, std dev or % gross errors reject If station/variable was previously rejected use stricter limits Pressure is processed differently: Put O-B values into 1hPa bins and find peak (mode) If peak far from 0 reject Calculate bias and std dev O-B near peak Compare bias and std dev to thresholds and whether previously rejected or corrected to decide whether to reject, correct or neither Outputs: Station list Stations/variables to reject Pressure bias correction (Jemma Davie)
13 Station lists: Plans Extend surface scheme to upper air and aircraft including bias correction for temperatures Ground-based GPS: monthly monitoring Satellite radiances, AMVs and GPSRO: choose which instruments to use for what periods based on ERA-Interim
14 TOVS sounding instrument (Amy Doherty)
15 TOVS progress Retrieve data from ECMWF MARS Convert to level with AAPP convert counts to radiances map MSU to HIRS fields-of-view Process in 1DVar quality control monitoring retrieve skin temperature (Amy Doherty)
16 TOVS plans Process in 4DVar (coded, not tested) Test for all satellites in the series Run trials to test impact (Amy Doherty)
17 Surface boundary conditions SST, seaice HadISST2 (0.25 o lat/lon) snow NESDIS IMS bulletins soil moisture Land surface data assimilation (EKF), screen-level obs and ASCAT BUFR
18 Satellite BC VarBC bias = c scan + n i= 1 ci air f(x b ) Airmass-dependent bias correction of satellite radiances (based on Harris and Kelly, 2001) VarBC will give smooth and automatic updating (DingMin Li, Andrew Lorenc, Dale Barker) Thanks to Richard Renshaw
19 Variational Bias Correction Progress: Basic scheme coded and tested in 4DVar Plans: Separate VarBC minimisation for channels not assimilated (passive channels, new instruments) Tune adjustment timescales e.g. varying with ERA-Interim bias volatility
20 Plans for 2015 Automated stationlists for surface, upper air, aircraft VarBC tested, spinning up new instruments Trial of TOVS data Surface fields generated/analysed for regional model Trial and assess ensemble-variational DA...ready to start production runs early 2016
21
22 Plans for 2015 Channel usage in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis Jack Woollen, NOAA
23 Feedback Workshop Summary Paul Poli & David Tan Many potential users for obs feedback information Feedback info is in many different formats Most reanalyses don t make this available anyway Recommendation: Work towards a common format Make feedback available, with tools + documentation
24 Thank You
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