Data Science in Traffic Analysis

Transcription

1 Data Science in Traffic Analysis Dr. Sven Maerivoet 17 December 2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 1

2 Overview Introducing Transport & Mobility Leuven (TML) S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 2

3 Transport & Mobility Leuven (TML) TML Press DEG Congestion Founded in 2002 as a spin-off company (NV): KU Leuven & TNO research institute (The Netherlands) Multidisciplinary team (18 people) Independent and open (cf. Clients: cities and regional governments, Flanders, Belgium, Europe Relations: ITS Belgium (BoD), VIM (advisory council), EC 7FP Quantitative and policy supporting: Traffic flow theory (incl. ITS measures, congestion estimation, ) Transport economics (incl. impact assessments, SCBAs, ) Private road, rail, public transport, inland waterways, air, Environment, public health, traffic safety (incl. legislation, infrastructure, vehicle technology, ) S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 3

4 TML is regularly featured in the press TML Press DEG Congestion Het Nieuwsblad, De Morgen, De Standaard, Het Laatste Nieuws, Knack, Jobat, Le Soir, La Meuse, De Lloyd, Verkeersspecialist, Vacature Magazine, Ademloos, Het Belang van Limburg, Mobimix, De Zondagskrant, De Streekkrant, Verkeersnet.nl, S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 4

5 The Data Enrichment Group TML Press DEG Congestion Background for the DEG: TML is often in a B2B context asked to identify future issues and opportunities There is an increased availability of extensive, wide-ranging mobility data, often available in-house or public databases This prompts the need for dedicated data analyses How can your data create an added value? These databases help enlarge the insights in your company s knowledge and operations We propose to cooperate with you, to enhance and enrich the data, resulting in an increased potential This can be directly translated to an added value for your company S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 5

6 How large is the congestion problem? TML Press DEG Congestion During the morning rush hour on Flemish motorways: o There is ~ 139 km congestion (losing ½ hour) o We all lose ~ 21,500 hours together o This costs ~ 300,000 euro to society On the underlying road network: 4x worse! 91% of the congestion is in Flanders Sources: TML (2008, 2011) S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 6

7 Overview Introducing Transport & Mobility Leuven (TML) S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 7

8 The onset of traffic data Data Fundamental Hysteresis Dates back to Greenshields (1935): Not crowded (fast) Crowded (slow) S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 8

9 #vehicles/hour The fundamental diagram Data Fundamental Hysteresis Theory versus practice: #vehicles/kilometre S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 9

10 Capacity drop and hysteresis Data Fundamental Hysteresis Different tastes different theories lots of discussions S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 10

11 Overview Introducing Transport & Mobility Leuven (TML) S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 11

12 Fixed datasources Data Vis Clust Analysis QC Single/double inductive loop detectors in the pavement, radars, cameras, pneumatic tubes,... S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 12

13 Visualising measurements: patterns Data Vis Clust Analysis QC Working days Weekend S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 13

14 Clustering measurements: patterns Data Vis Clust Analysis QC S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 14

15 Historical patterns are essential to understand Data Vis Clust Analysis QC morning rush hour evening rush hour Morning: Heavy jams at Vilvoorde and Strombeek-Bever Slower traffic at the junction with the E19 and E40 Evening: Heavy jams at the Vierarmenkruispunt, Tervuren and Wezembeek-Oppem S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 15

16 Studies based on traffic measurements Data Vis Clust Analysis QC Traffic indices on Belgian motorways Analysis of the congestion in Belgium Impact of reduced maximumspeeds on motorways How much time is spent in congestion during a career? S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 16

17 The impact of an average speed control Data Vis Clust Analysis QC Light offenders Heavy offenders feb mrt apr mei jun jul aug sep okt nov dec jan apr mei jun jul aug sep okt nov dec jan feb mrt Before implementation After implementation S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 17

18 Insight into quality of measurements Data Vis Clust Analysis QC S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 18

19 Reality is just another model Data Vis Clust Analysis QC S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 19

20 Overview Introducing Transport & Mobility Leuven (TML) S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 20

21 A new trend is being set Trend Large Impact Big Beh Etc S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 21

22 Want some data!? Yes, big and open please! Trend Large Impact Big Beh Etc S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 22

23 Mobility just seems Large, but is becoming Big: patterns Trend Large Impact Big Beh Etc S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 23

24 Potential impacts on travel behaviour Trend Large Impact Big Beh Etc Potential of public transportation: Maerivoet et al., A Study on Co-Modality and Eco-Driving Mobility, 2014 Gamification of rail timetable planning Potential (and impacts!) of EVs and AVs Car-pooling v2: dynamic ride sharing Big Data: citizens behaviour, commuter patterns, S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 24

25 From large to really big Trend Large Impact Big Beh Etc The new generation of mobile data GSM is kinda out, GPS is more than in! Less and less problems with estimation of traffic volumes. Fusion with available measurements (via traffic centres) Going beyond (X-)FCD: E.g., mobility patterns from Bluetooth-scanners, Twitter feeds, Android locations, S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 25

26 Micro level: speeding infractions Trend Large Impact Big Beh Etc Detailed speed measurements can be correlated with reigning traffic speed limits at specific locations Right-of-way, following distances, interactions, S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 26

27 Discovering travel patterns beyond classic OVG Trend Large Impact Big Beh Etc S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 27

28 A behavioural experiment with road user charging Trend Large Impact Big Beh Etc S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 28

29 Peak shifting due to road user charging Trend Large Impact Big Beh Etc People drove less during the morning rush hour, more during the day and later during the evening rush hour 11.00% 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 00u 01u 02u 03u 04u 05u 06u 07u 08u 09u 10u 11u 12u 13u 14u 15u 16u 17u 18u 19u 20u 21u 22u 23u Fase 1 (nulmeting) Fase 2 (wedstrijd) S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 29

30 Parking management in cities Trend Large Impact Big Beh Etc S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 30

31 Macro level: EV potential Trend Large Impact Big Beh Etc Which trips can be substituted by an electric vehicle? Based on vehicle usage patterns Trip distance (~ range) vs. inter-trip time (~ recharging) Different perspectives: Market potential Car ownership S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 31

32 Autonomous vehicles Trend Large Impact Big Beh Etc S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 32

33 An new generation of urban route planning and parking Trend Large Impact Big Beh Etc Next-generation route planners: Incl. green and predictive routing Incl. tourist planning Culminating in: Incl. Integrated Fare Management (IFM) Smart parking apps: S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 33

34 Protecting identities Trend Large Impact Big Beh Etc S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 34

35 About data: the requirement to open up Trend Large Impact Big Beh Etc EC Directives EC ITS Directive (2010/40/EG) EC PSI Directive (2013/37/EU) [REUSE] EC INSPIRE Directive (2007/E/EC) Mandatory ITS Action Plans for MS (ITS Action Plans for Cities) Uniform implementation via Delegated Acts Emerging Open Data movements and PPPs Especially at the local level of Cities S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 35

36 More information? Modelling Traffic on Motorways (16) Transport & Mobility Leuven: Data Enrichment Group: S. Maerivoet 17/12/2015 Data Science in Traffic Analysis 36