GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD

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1 GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LIMITED Result Update (CONSOLIDATED BASIS): Q3 FY15 ISIN: INE102D01028 FEBRUARY 9 th, 2015 STOCK DETAILS Sector FMCG BSE Code Face Value wk. High / Low (Rs.) / Volume (2wk. Avg ) Market Cap ( Rs in mn ) Annual Estimated Results (A*: Actual / E*: Estimated) Years FY14A FY15E FY16E Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS P/E Shareholding Pattern (%) 1 Year Comparative Graph GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD S&P BSE SENSEX Recommendation BUY CMP Target Price SYNOPSIS Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) is a major player in the Indian FMCG market, with leading Household & Personal Care Products. Consolidated Net sales for the quarter rose by 12.79% to Rs mn from Rs mn in Q3 FY14. India business grew by 12%; nearly 1.6x of the overall household and personal care sector (HPC) growth and International business grew by 20% on an organic constant currency basis. Q3 FY15 consolidated EBITDA increased by 26.81% to Rs mn as against Rs mn in the corresponding period of the previous year. In Q3 FY15, consolidated Net Profit after Minority Interest increased by 34.63% and stood at Rs min against Rs mn in Q3 FY14. During Q3 FY15, PBT increased by 33.75% to Rs mn from Rs mn in Q3 FY4. Godrej Consumer Products Ltd has entered into an agreement with Frika Hair (Pty) Limited, for the acquisition of 100% equity stake in its hair extensions business in South Africa. GCPL has declared a third interim Re. 1/- per share on the face value of Re. 1/-each for the FY During Q3 FY15, Indonesia business registered a strong constant currency net sales growth of 19%. Margins were up by 330 bps year-on-year. Latin America and Africa business registered a constant currency net sales growth of 25% and 36% respectively. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 13% and 7% over 2013 to 2016E respectively. PEER GROUPS CMP MARKET CAP EPS P/E (X) P/BV(X) DIVIDEND COMPANY NAME (Rs.) Rs. in Mn. (Rs.) Ratio Ratio (%) Godrej Consumer Products Ltd Hindustan Unilever Ltd Procter & Gamble Ltd Marico Ltd

2 Analysis & Recommendation - BUY Consolidated Net sales for the quarter rose by 12.79% to Rs mn from Rs mn in Q3 FY14. India business grew by 12%; nearly 1.6x of the overall household and personal care sector (HPC) growth and International business grew by 20% on an organic constant currency basis. Q3 FY15 consolidated EBITDA increased by 26.81% to Rs mn as against Rs mn in the corresponding period of the previous year, driven by a strong growth of 18% in the India business and 43% in the international business. The net profit grew strongly this quarter at 34.63% and stood at Rs mn as compared Rs mn in Q3 FY14. In January 2015, GCPL entered into an agreement with Frika Hair (Pty) Limited, for the acquisition of 100% equity stake in its hair extensions business in South Africa. After a few quarters of sluggish growth, consumer demand in India started to show early signs of a recovery in the third quarter of FY2015. The company has delivered strong, competitive double-digit growth across categories. After a challenging few quarters, the growth prospects of the Indian economy are looking more favourable. GCPL expects growth in the second half of this fiscal year should be better than the first half. Consequently, GCPL intent is to deliver a stronger performance overall this year, compared to the previous year. The medium and long-term growth prospects in India and GCPL other emerging markets remain robust. With the company clear strategic focus, differentiated product portfolio, superior execution and top-notch team, it will continue to deliver industry leading results in the future. Hence, we recommend BUY for Godrej Consumer Products Ltd with a target price of Rs for medium to long term investment. FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS CONSOLIDATED Results updates- Q3 FY15, Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) is a major player in the Indian FMCG market, with leading Household and Personal Care Products, reported its financial results for the quarter ended 31 st Dec, Months Dec-14 Dec-13 % Change Revenue Net Profit EPS EBITDA The company s net profit jumps to Rs million against Rs million in the corresponding quarter ending of previous year, an increase of 34.63%. Revenue for the quarter rose by 12.79% to Rs million from Rs million, when compared with the prior year period. Reported earnings per share of the company stood at Rs a share during the quarter, registering 34.63% increased over previous year period. Profit before interest, depreciation and tax is Rs millions as against Rs millions in the corresponding period of the previous year.

3 Expenditure: Break up of Expenditure Cost of Raw Materials including packing material Consumed Purchase of stock in trade Employee Benefits Expenses Depreciation & Amortization Expenses Advertisement & Publicity (Rs. in millions) Q3 FY15 Q3 FY14 % CHNG % % % % % Other Expenditure % Latest Updates Godrej Consumer Products Ltd has declared a third interim Re. 1/- per share (100% on the shares of the face value of Re. 1/-each) for the financial year Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) has entered into an agreement with Frika Hair (Pty) Limited, for the acquisition of 100% equity stake in its hair extensions business in South Africa. Frika Hair (Pty) Limited enjoys a premium position in the South African market. It has particular strengths in the Western Cape, Eastern Cape and Gauteng, and is the market leader in key accounts in organised retail. This acquisition helps GCPL in consolidating its presence in the hair extensions market in South Africa. Category Review Household Insecticides: Household insecticides growth momentum has returned to normal levels and clocked a growth of 16%, well ahead of category growth. GCPL launched a Neem Low Smoke Coil variant, to premiumise their coil franchise and aid market share gains. Soaps: In Soaps, GCPL continued double-digit growth momentum and outperformed the category (where growth recovered to low single digits) with a value growth of 11%.

4 Hair Colours: GCPL sustained its strong growth momentum in Hair Colours and clocked a volume led sales growth of 10%, despite a significantly higher base from last year. Godrej Expert Rich Crème continues to gain market share, backed by a strong build-up in distribution and large-scale activation programmes. Air Fresheners: Godrej aer continues to do well, aided by innovative gel format technology and consumer engagement initiatives. In little over two years of launch, it now features among the top 3 players in the car air care and home spray categories. Health and Wellness GCPL recently launched Health and Wellness portfolio of hand washes, a hand sanitiser and anti-mosquito spray, under Godrej Protekt, is being well received in modern trade. Liquid Detergents Liquid Detergents sales have increased by 13%, despite the late onset of the winter. International Businesses Indonesia: Indonesia business continued its strong growth momentum and registered a strong constant currency net sales growth of 19%. Operating margins increased 330 basis points year-over-year, driven by price hikes, cost efficiencies and judicious marketing spends. Stella continues to grow strongly and further extend its leadership in the air freshener category. Africa GCPL Africa business recorded a strong constant currency sales growth of 36%, led by the significant outperformance by its Darling business. In January 2015, GCPL entered into an agreement with Frika Hair (Pty) Limited, for the acquisition of 100% equity stake in its hair extensions business in South Africa. Latin America Latin America business delivered a healthy constant currency growth of 25%, led by market share gains.

5 Europe UK business, constant currency net sales declined by 13%, as one of the lead brands that GCPL distribute continues to face growth challenges due to grey and counterfeit issues. Operating margins however increased by 230 basis points year-over-year due to a better mix and cost saving initiatives. Company Profile Godrej Consumer Products Limited is the largest home-grown home and personal care company in India. It is constantly innovating to delight their consumers with more exciting, superior quality products at affordable prices. It has bold ambitions and is becoming more agile and future ready. GCPL rank number 1 in hair colour, household insecticides and liquid detergents and number 2 in soaps. In India, GCPL brands - Good knight, Cinthol, Godrej Expert, Godrej No. 1 - and GCPL is now on way to becoming an emerging markets FMCG leader. In line with 3X3 approach to international expansion, GCPL building a presence in 3 emerging markets (Asia, Africa, Latin America) across 3 categories (home care, personal wash, hair care). In 2010, it acquired the Indonesia based Megasari group, a leader in household insecticides, air fresheners and baby care. With the acquisition of Rapidol and Kinky in South Africa, and the Darling Group, a leading pan-africa hair care company, it has a strong presence in the fast growing African hair care market. GCPL acquired the Issue and Argencos groups in Argentina, leaders in hair colour, in 2010, and expanded company s footprint to Chile through the acquisition of a 60% stake in Cosmetica Nacional. The company s UK business acquired in 2005 has a play in hair and personal care. It also operates in the Middle East and has a strong presence across SAARC countries.

6 Financial Highlight CONSOLIDATED (A*- Actual, E* -Estimations & Rs. In Millions) Balance sheet as at March 31 st, E GCPL LTD. FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E SOURCES OF FUNDS Shareholder's Funds Share Capital Reserves and Surplus Sub Total - Net worth Minority Interest Non Current Liabilities Long term borrowings Deferred Tax Liabilities Other Long term Liabilities Long Term Provisions Sub Total - Non Current Liabilities Current Liabilities Short term borrowings Trade Payables Other Current Liabilities Short Term Provisions Sub Total - Current Liabilities Total Liabilities ( ) APPLICATION OF FUNDS Non-Current Assets Fixed Assets Tangible assets Intangible assets Capital Work in Progress a) Sub Total - Fixed Assets b) Goodwill on consolidation c) Non-current investments d) Deferred Tax Asset e) Long Term loans and advances f) Other non-current assets Sub Total - Non Current Assets Current Assets Current Investment Inventories Trade receivables Cash and Bank Balances Short-terms loans & advances Other current assets Sub Total - Current Assets Total Assets (1+2)

7 Annual Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 2013 to 2016E Value(Rs.in.mn) FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E Description 12m 12m 12m 12m Net Sales Other Income Total Income Expenditure Operating Profit Interest Gross profit Depreciation Exceptional Items Profit Before Tax Tax Profit After Tax Minority Interest Share of Profit & Loss of Asso Net Profit Equity capital Reserves Face value EPS Quarterly Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 30 th June, 2014 to 31 st Mar, 2015E Value(Rs.in.mn) 30-Jun Sep Dec Mar-15E Description 3m 3m 3m 3m Net sales Other income Total Income Expenditure Operating profit Interest Gross profit Depreciation Exceptional Items Profit Before Tax Tax Profit After Tax Minority Interest Share of Profit & Loss of Asso Net Profit Equity capital Face value EPS

8 Ratio Analysis Particulars FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E EPS (Rs.) EBITDA Margin (%) 16.39% 15.96% 17.20% 16.63% PBT Margin (%) 15.99% 13.54% 14.71% 14.34% PAT Margin (%) 13.19% 10.78% 11.56% 11.39% P/E Ratio (x) ROE (%) 25.52% 21.70% 21.76% 20.38% ROCE (%) 21.42% 23.64% 23.79% 22.38% Debt Equity Ratio EV/EBITDA (x) Book Value (Rs.) P/BV Charts

9 Outlook and Conclusion At the current market price of Rs , the stock P/E ratio is at x FY15E and x FY16E respectively. Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY15E and FY16E is seen at Rs and Rs respectively. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 13% and 7% over 2013 to 2016E respectively. On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at x for FY15E and x for FY16E. Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 8.61 x and 7.50 x respectively for FY15E and FY16E. We recommend BUY in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs for Medium to Long term investment. Industry Overview The overall fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) market is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.7 per cent to touch US$ billion in the period , with the rural FMCG market anticipated to increase at a CAGR of 17.7 per cent to US$ 100 billion during The market size of the Indian FMCG sector is expected to reach US$ 135 billion by 2020 from US$ 44.9 billion in It is also the fourth largest sector in the Indian economy and has grown at an annual average of about 11 per cent over the last decade. Food products, the leading market segment with 43 per cent of the overall market revenue together with personal care at 22 per cent make up two-thirds of the sector's revenue. The Government of India's policies and regulatory frameworks such as relaxation of license rules and approval of 51 per cent foreign direct investment (FDI) in multi-brand and 100 per cent in single-brand retail are some of the major growth drivers in this sector. The government has also amended the Sugarcane Control Order, 1966, and replaced the Statutory Minimum Price (SMP) of sugarcane with Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) and the State Advised Price (SAP). There is a lot of scope for growth in the FMCG sector from rural markets with consumption expected to grow in these areas as penetration of brands increases. Also, with rising per capita income, which is projected to expand at a CAGR of 7.4 per cent over the period , the FMCG sector is anticipated to witness some major growth.

10 Conclusion While the rural market certainly offers a big attraction to marketers, it would be naïve to think that any company can enter the market without facing any problems and walk away with a sizable share. Distribution is the most important variable in the marketing plans of most consumer goods manufacturers, because managing such a massive sales and distribution network is in itself a huge task. This sector will continue to see growth as it depends on an ever-increasing internal market for consumption, and demand for these goods remains more or less constant, irrespective of recession or inflation. Hence this sector will grow, though it may not be a smooth growth path, due to the present world-wide economic slowdown, rising inflation and fall of the rupee. This sector will see good growth in the long run and hiring will continue to remain robust. Disclaimer: This document is prepared by our research analysts and it does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. Firstcall Research or any of its affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Firstcall Research and/ or its affiliates and/or employees will not be liable for the recipients investment decision based on this document.

11 Firstcall India Equity Research: C.V.S.L.Kameswari Pharma & Diversified U. Janaki Rao Capital Goods B. Anil Kumar Auto, IT & FMCG M. Vinayak Rao Diversified G. Amarender Diversified Firstcall Research Provides Industry Research on all the Sectors and Equity Research on Major Companies forming part of Listed and Unlisted Segments For Further Details Contact: Tel.: / / Telefax: / info@firstobjectindia.com

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