World Energy Outlook Series

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1 WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 22 and Global Electricity Investment Challenges

2 World Energy Outlook Series World Energy Outlook 1998 World Energy Outlook 1999 Insights: Looking at Energy Subsidies: Getting the Prices Right World Energy Outlook 2 World Energy Outlook 21 Insights: Assessing Today s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow s Growth World Energy Outlook 22 (2nd edition issued) World Energy Outlook 23 Insights: Global Energy Investment Outlook

3 WEO 22: Key Strategic Challenges security of energy supplies investment in energy infrastructure threat of environmental damage caused by energy use uneven access of the world s population to modern energy.

4 Global Trends

5 World Electricity Consumption vs.. GDP Electricity consumption (TWh) Electricity Demand 2 to 23: OECD: 1.5% Transition Economies: 2.% Developing Countries: 4.1% WORLD: 2.4% GDP (billion $(1995) using PPPs) World electricity demand is set to increase rapidly

6 World Power-Generation Capacity Additions, ,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 GW 1,2 1, Gas Coal Hydro Other renewables Oil Nuclear Fuel cells More than 4% of new capacity worldwide is gas-fired

7 World Installed Power- Generation Capacity 8, 7, 6, 5, GW 4, 3, 2, 1, Existing capacity New capacity Nearly 5, GW of capacity is built in 2-23, almost half in developing countries

8 World Power-Generation Investment, $ billion (2 dollars) North Europe America Pacific China E. Asia Latin America South Transition Africa Asia economies Middle East Cumulative worldwide investment in new power plants amounts to $ 4.2 trillion, more than half in developing countries

9 World Power Generation Capacity Investments $billion (2 dollars) Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Other Renewables Fuel Cells

10 OECD

11 Ordered Power-Generation Capacity Additions to GW US and Canada Japan EU15 Coal Oil Gas Other

12 EU Capacity Additions and Investment GW Investment ($ billion) 1 5 2/21 21/22 22/23 EU investment needs will increase over time in both GW and $ terms

13 Installed Capacity in EU GW 29 GW 618 GW Installed Capacity 2 Retirements 2-23 = New Capacity GW Installed Capacity - 23 Capacity additions over the next 3 years will be larger than today's installed capacity

14 14 Age of Installed Capacity in EU GW Oil Gas Coal Uranium 2 < 1 years 1-2 years 2-3 years > 3 years Europe's power plants are ageing: half current capacity - mostly coal-fired - could be retired by 23

15 Share of Renewables in Electricity Generation 35 3 US & Canada Europe Japan, Australia & New Zealand 25 per cent Alternative 2 23 Alternative 2 23 Alternative Non-hydro Hydro The role of non-hydro renewables is much greater in all OECD regions, especially Europe

16 Capacity in EU 7 Major Utilities (22) Rest of Europe Home Country GW EdF E.ON RWE ENEL Vattenfall Endesa Electrabel

17 11 Capacity in EU15 7 Major Utilities (22) GW Rest of EU Sweden Italy UK Germany Home Country EdF E.ON RWE ENEL Vattenfall Endesa Electrabel

18 Developing Countries

19 Investment vs.saving Balance by Region 3 25 % (Ratio to GDP) OECD Transition Economies India Brazil Africa Gross domestic savings Gross capital investment Foreign capital flow needs to meet the gap between domestic financial resources and investment in most of non-oecd regions.

20 Size and Activity of Financial Markets by Region 8 7 % (Ratio to GDP) OECD Russia India Indonesia Brazil Africa Liquid liabilities (size of banking sector) Stock market capitalization (size of stock market) Stock market value traded (activity of stock market) Financial markets in non-oecd regions are smaller, less active,and less efficient.

21 Investment Flows into Energy Projects with Foreign Private Participation US$ Billion Electricity Natural gas transmission and distribution Sound macroeconomic management and legal/regulatory framework are needed to secure the availability of foreign capital to energy projects.

22 Concluding Remarks

23 Summary World electricity demand is set to grow rapidly Gas is likely to be the preferred fuel Ageing: a key issue in OECD countries Developing Countries: higher demand growth - scarce resources

24 Surrounding Issues What are obstacles to investment? Is investment climate changing? What are the (new) risks introduced by liberalisation of electricity markets? How do challenges vary across energy mix / technology? How will the capital markets be convinced to invest in Developing Countries? What role for governments?

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