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1 Leverhulme Major Research Fellowship Department of Geography Global Energy Futures: Overcoming the Global l Energy Dilemma Professor Mike Bradshaw

2 Introduction: Global Energy Dilemmas Without energy there is no economy. Without climate there is no environment. Without economy and environment there is no material wealth, no civil society, no personal or national security. And the problem is that we have been getting the energy our economy needs in ways that are wrecking the climate that our environment needs. John P. Holdren (Science Advisor to President Barrack Obama) It is no exaggeration to claim that the future of human prosperity depends on how successfully we tackle two central energy challenges facing us today: securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and effecting a rapid transformation to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentally benign system of energy supply. International Energy Agency 2008

3 Plan The Global Energy Dilemmas Drivers of Future Energy Demand and Carbon Emissions The Global l Energy System in The Global Energy Dilemmas Nexus Conclusions

4 The Global Energy Dilemma Can we have secure and affordable energy services that are environmentally benign? ENERGY ENVIRONMENT Energy Security Climate Change ECONOMY Economic Globalization

5 ENVIRONMENT ECONOMY The Kaya Identity (EIA 2008) ENERGY

6 EIA s 2035 Reference Scenario Delivers a 41% Delivers a 41% increase in emissions between 2008 and 2035!

7 The Triple Challenge 1. To improve energy intensity, that is to reduce the the amount of energy used per unit of output. 2. To reduce the carbon intensity of energy supply, that is the amount of CO 2 produced d per unit of energy supplied. 3. To achieve the above in ways that are secure, affordable and equitable.

8 Some Key Questions s What will global energy demand be in 2030? What will be the geography of that energy demand? How will we satisfy that level of demand? What will be the environmental consequences of satisfying that level of demand? What policy prescriptions are required?

9 ENVIRONMENT ECONOMY The Kaya Identity ENERGY

10 Projected Population Change, by major area According the UN Population division, the World s Population will be over 8 billion by 2030, reaching 9.3 billion in 2050 and 10 billion by Most of the growth will be in Africa and Asia Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

11 A shift in the global economic centre of gravity

12 Source: US Energy Information Administration

13 Primary energy consumption per capita Worldwide, nearly 2.4 billion people still use traditional biomass fuels for cooking and nearly 1.6 billion people do not have access to electricity. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011

14 Energy Intensity & Development

15 Energy use per unit of GDP (Toe per thousand $2010 PPP) Historical trends of energy intensity Energy Intensity 2007 Kg of oil equivalent $ 1,000 GDP Energy use per unit of GDP Russia Toe per thousand $2010 GDP China Forecast India US US World China Japan EU UK India Source: Rühl et al (2011)

16 A Global Shift in Energy Demand is underway Quadrillion BTUs Non-OECD demand will account for 96% of the projected increase in energy demand to 2030 (BP 2012) Non-OECD 250 OECD Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2010

17 Energy Mix is critical to the Carbon Intensity of Energy Use BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011

18 Future Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Source: US Energy Information Administration

19 Two words of caution: embedded carbon Arrows depict the largest interregional fluxes of emissions (Mt CO y 1) from net exporting countries (blue) to net importing countries (red); the threshold for arrows is Mt CO y 1 in Top and Bottom and 100 Mt CO y 1 in Middle. Fluxes to and from Europe are aggregated to include 2 all 27 member states of the European 2 Union. The geographical concentration of fossil fuel resources leads to larger fluxes of emissions than those concentrations embodied in goods and services.

20 The Global Energy System in ?

21 Energy Futures Forecast Growth in Share of fossil Share of non- Increase in energy fuels OECD energy-related consumption CO 2 emissions BP % growth by Almost all 28% growth Outlook 2030 growth, 96%, from non-oecd Exxon Mobil 30% growth by 80% of energy Non-OECD Level off by Outlook to consumption demand will grow by 80% 2030, non-oecd 70% of emissions EIA International Energy Outlook 2021 (Reference case) 53% growth by % of energy consumption Non-OECD demand will grow by 85% 43% growth IEA World 40% growth in 80% of energy Non-OECD 20% increase in Energy energy demand consumption share increases emissions Outlook 2012 (New by 2035 from 54% to 64% Scenarios)

22 The Global Energy Dilemmas Nexus Energy Security Energy Security? Climate Change Climate Change Globalization Globalization

23 Kaya Characteristics by Macro Region (Per cent of global total*) CO 2 Emissions Energy Use GNI (PPP) Population Developed Post Socialist Emerging Developing / * Columns do not add up to 100 due to unclassified countries in the World Bank data. Source: World Bank Data

24

25 Global Energy Dilemmas: Drivers Key = Positive, Potentially Positive, Negative High Energy Societies Post Socialist teconomies Energy Intensity Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity Carbon Intensity Economic Growth Economic Growth Population Growth Population Growth Emerging Economies Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity Economic Growth Population Growth Developing Economies Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity Economic Growth Population Growth

26 Countries Low-income countries (Developing) Low-carbon technologies and policies Expand energy access through grid and off-grid options. Deploy energy efficiency i and renewable energy whenever they are least cost Remove all fossil-fuel subsidies Adopt cost-recovery pricing Leapfrog to distributed generation, where grid infrastructure does not exist Scale up energy efficiency and renewable energy Middle-income Countries (Post-socialist & Emerging) Integrate urban and transport approaches to low carbon use Remove fossil-fuel subsidies Adopt cost-recovery pricing including local externalities Conduct research, development, and demonstration in new technologies Undertake deep emission cuts at home High-income Countries (Developed) Put a price on carbon: cap-and-trade or carbon tax Remove fossil-fuel subsidies Increase research, development, and demonstration in new technologies Change high-energy-consuming lifestyle Provide financing and low-carbon technologies to developing countries Source: World Bank (2010) WDR 2010: Development and Climate Change.

27 Conclusion: The Global Governance Challenge IEF IEA UNFCCC? OPEC EU GECF IMF, WTO, World Bank G8-G20-G77 OECD ASEAN, EU, NAFTA

28 Thank you

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