Seismic Resilience Planning for Water & Wastewater Systems

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1 Your Partners in Resilience Seismic Resilience Planning for Water & Wastewater Systems Brian Knight, PE., SE.

2 Resilience Defined

3 Resilience Noun: 1. the power or ability to return to the original form, position, etc., after being bent, compressed, or stretched; elasticity 2. ability to recover readily from illness, depression, adversity, or the like; buoyancy Dictionary.reference.com

4 Resilience and Sustainability Seismic resiliency and sustainability are achievable when the Water System: Ability to provide services allowing the community to effectively respond to earthquake events, recover quickly, and adapt to changing conditions, while also taking step to reduce future seismic risks, and Is prepared to manage all threatening seismic hazards in a manner that minimizes and contains the hazard impacts while continuing a comprehensive approach to natural resource conservation and maintaining environmental quality.

5 Resilience and Sustainability ShakeOut 2008

6 Chart of Loss comparison Kobe Japanese GDP vs. gross regional product Noticeable dip in 1994 Damaged zone showing long term economic decline Dupont & Noy

7 Earthquake Hazard

8 U.S. Earthquake Hazard US Geological Survey

9 Washington & Oregon Earthquake Hazard US Geological Survey

10 How Powerful are we talking? A full subduction zone event could produce magnitude 9.0 earthquakes spanning the 684 miles from Northern California to Vancouver Island. Expect 2 to 3 minutes of intense ground shaking Casualties (assumed 1,250 10,000) Liquefaction of soils around port facilities and bridges Complete tsunami damage along coast and Puget Sound Secondary hazards: fire, gas leaks, chemical spills

11 Not a matter of if but when. DOGAMI

12 Oregon Resilience Plan

13 Oregon Resilience Plan Oregon is the first state in the U.S. to adopt a comprehensive statewide plan that identifies where we are now, where we need to be and how to get there Oregon Resilience Plan

14 ORP Water/Wastewater System Vulnerabilities Water and Wastewater Structures Reservoirs and Tanks All tanks subject to damage at connections with pipe. 75% of tanks built prior to 1990 likely to fail & release contents. Tank between 1990 & 2000 likely damaged. Pump Stations 80% of stations built prior to 2000 likely to either fail structurally or suffer damage Treatment Plants Pre-2000 Plants likely to suffer catastrophic damage due to foundation failures due to liquefaction

15 ORP Water/Wastewater System Vulnerabilities Pipe Failures Water Distribution 4,592 miles of pipe = 2,656 breaks Leaks Wastewater collection Systems One sewer pipe collapse for every 10 breaks/leaks (i.e. 450 collapse) One manhole replacement for every four collapses (i.e manholes)

16 Oregon Resilience Plan Water System Recovery Goals Desired time to restore component to 80 90% operational Desired time to restore component to 50 60% operational Desired time to restore component to 20 30% operational Current State (90% operational) G Y R X Current goal gap Oregon Resilience Plan

17 Oregon Resilience Plan Water System Recovery Goals Desired time to restore component to 80 90% operational Desired time to restore component to 50 60% operational Desired time to restore component to 20 30% operational Current State (90% operational) G Y R X Current goal gap Oregon Resilience Plan

18 Resilience and Sustainability LADWP - Davis

19 Oregon Resilience Plan - Projected Impact $100 Billion in direct damage $32 Billion indirect economic loss 50 Year plan for state 1/5th of Oregon GDP lost 10,000 s displaced High likelihood of businesses leaving due to timelines to restore critical services Months to years of recovery Oregon Resilience Plan

20 Oregon Resilience Plan - Projected Impact Critical Service Electricity Police and fire stations Drinking water and sewer Top-priority highways (partial restoration) Healthcare facilities Liquid Fuel Telecommunications Estimated Time to Restore Service 1 to 3 months 2 to 4 months 1 month to 1 year 6 to 12 months 18 months 3 weeks to 1 Month 1 to 3 months Oregon Resilience Plan

21 Becoming Resilient

22 How do I become Resilient? 3 Pillars of Resilience Planning: Develop performance based system Goals Assessment: Estimate system EQ performance & Prioritize Mitigation: Systematically address based on Restoration Impact

23 Planning

24 #1 Planning Performance Based Goal Keep damage/loss of services from creating a catastrophe and economic recession/depression A resilient water/wastewater system is designed and constructed to accommodate earthquake damage with ability to continue providing services or limit service outage times tolerable for community recovery efforts Bottom Line: Service Restoration Time

25 #1 Planning Target restoration timelines ORP provides baseline targets Specific duration targets driven by highest priorities Fire Fighting Hospitals Schools/Community Centers Civic ( EOC/Police/Fire)

26 Oregon Resilience Plan Water System Recovery Goals Oregon Resilience Plan

27 Water System Resilience Water System Service Categories Water delivery (Does water come out?) Quality (Is it safe to drink?) Quantity (Can you get the amount you need? ) Fire Protection (Does Fire Dept. get what they need? ) Functionality (Is the water system in working order? ) LADWP - Davis

28 Water System Resilience LADWP - Davis

29 Assessment

30 #2 Assessment Risk Based Methodology Must Consider: Consequence (what happens if this breaks? How critical is this to system?) Vulnerability (is this pipe/building/etc. likely damaged?) Hazard Frequency (what EQ considered? 500-yr? 1000-yr? 2500 yr?) Redundancy* (is system redundant or not?) Spatial distribution* (strong shaking not uniform over entire system)

31 #2 Assessment Consequences of failure Short Term Service disruption Fire protection Emergency Response Long Term Service disruption Economic Recovery Impacts Community Impacts WRK Engineers

32 #2 Assessment Vulnerabilities Estimate Performance based on Age Construction Type/Materials Structural Capacity (Fragility Pipes; Engineering Assessment - Buildings) Soil Conditions Allison Pyrch

33 #2 Assessment Consider Hazards Ground Shaking Above Grade Structures Permanent Ground Displacement Below Grade Pipes Landslides Lateral spreading Liquefaction Surface rupture CNN

34 #2 Assessment Frequency of Event Cascadia Earthquake Local Faults Probabilistic combination of several EQ sources (Conservative) US Geological Survey

35 #2 Assessment Workshop Gather system operations information Identify Consequences Computer Modeling HAZUS (Seismic Only) + Water Connectivity GIRAFFE (Seismic + Hydraulic Model) Others (spread sheet approach limited)

36 Water Town USA

37 #2 Assessment How much to include? Transmission Backbone only? Transmission + Distribution LADWP experience in Northridge % Losses in Distribution System LADWP

38 #2 Assessment What do I want from Modeling? Service Restoration Estimates Damage Estimate & Repair Priorities Repair Crew Resources available (internal/external) Estimate Repair Rate Repair Sequence (Recovery Timelines/Priorities) Estimate Restoration Time (days)

39 #2 Assessment Shakeout

40 #2 Assessment LADWP - Davis Shakeout

41 Mitigation

42 #3 Mitigation Goal: Resilience System must provide water to users when they need it Water needs during the recovery time Can t prevent damage! This is too costly & takes too long Must be Strategic with Mitigation LADWP - Davis

43 #3 Mitigation Strengthening Key Facilities to be operational post-earthquake Buildings required for post-earthquake restoration Process Ops/Labs/Admin Maintenance/Materials Buildings Use USRC rating for buildings/facilities

44 #3 Mitigation

45 #3 Mitigation

46 #3 Mitigation Resilient pipe network Designed and constructed to accommodate damage with ability to continue providing water or limit water outage times to tolerable community recovery efforts Pipe Replacement Program to incorporate Seismic Risk Japan Ductile Pipe Association

47 #3 Mitigation Fire Department Prioritize Mitigation based on Fire Fighting needs Water available for high fire hazard areas Are Alternate Water sources available? Storage Reservoirs Transmission Backbone taps Wikimedia Commons

48 #3 Mitigation Prioritize Mitigation Need resilient backbone network capable of withstanding damage so water can be provided soon after earthquake Hospitals Emergency Shelters Firefighting Etc. Distribution system Strategic Valve placement to isolate critical facilities within zones and restore services first Repair other lower priority pipes later

49 #3 Mitigation Resiliency Strategies Limit damage level Buildings & Pipes Post-event pipe repair preparedness (stockpile spares) Add Redundancy Isolation of Critical Areas Pipe replacement program Strategic locations (areas susceptible to PGD) New pipes either HDPE or ductile iron with chained joints

50 #3 Mitigation Re-Assess Mitigation Impacts As Mitigation occurs, use Model to update: Add System modifications/alterations Estimate Service Restoration Timeline Plan EQ Response scenarios

51 Resiliency Framework Summary Plan Determine Service Restoration Timeline Goals Assess Create Estimate of as-built System EQ Response and Service Restoration Timeline Mitigate Strategically Mitigate to achieve Service Restoration Goals

52 Your Partners in Resilience Questions?

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