Assessing potential biodiversity impacts of policies that address drivers of deforestation to achieve REDD+ objectives

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1 Assessing potential biodiversity impacts of policies that address drivers of deforestation to achieve REDD+ objectives Dr Valerie Kapos Dr Rebecca Mant

2 REDD+ and drivers of deforestation REDD + (a) Reducing emissions from deforestation; (b) Reducing emissions from forest degradation; (c) Conservation of forest carbon stocks; (d) Sustainable management of forests; (e) Enhancement of forest carbon stocks.

3 REDD+ and biodiversity conservation REDD+ activities e.g. reduced deforestation Opportunities e.g. Slowed loss & fragmentation of habitat Risks e.g. Displacement of landuse change to ecosystems important for biodiversity

4 REDD+ and biodiversity UNFCCC Cancun Safeguards CBD Strategic Plan Safeguard (e) That actions are consistent with the conservation of natural forests and biological diversity, ensuring that [actions] are not used for the conversion of natural forests, but are instead used to incentivize the protection and conservation of natural forests and their ecosystem services, and to enhance other social and environmental benefits; Aichi Biodiversity Targets Target 5 By 2020, the rate of loss of all natural habitats, including forests, is at least halved... Target 15 By 2020,... the contribution of biodiversity to carbon stocks has been enhanced,... including restoration of at least 15 per cent of degraded ecosystems,...

5 REDD-PAC project REDD-PAC aims to support the design of national and regional REDD+ policies that safeguard and enhance ecosystem services, in particular those services distinguished by the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity Integrated land-use modelling (GLOBIOM) to assess impacts of REDD+ policy options member countries of the Central African Forests Commission (COMIFAC) Brazil Spatial analysis of potential benefits from REDD+ in 5additional countries

6 Using land use models to asses impacts Drivers of land use change Changes in trade Changing diets Growing Populations... Policy & Context (moderators) Change in Land use & Land cover Production CO 2 Emissions Biodiversity

7 Challenges Drivers of land use change Changes in trade Changing diets Growing Populations Policy & Context Expressing them in (moderators) terms suitable for modelling... 1 Identifying nationally relevant and realistic policy options 2 Change in Land use & Land cover Reconciling model land use categories & changes with actual land uses and associated land cover Production CO 2 3 Emissions Assessing impacts on biodiversity of different Biodiversity policy options

8 Challenges: 1. Policy Options Many countries are still developing REDD+ strategies Brazil is likely to focus on increasing enforcement of the current forest code and related policies REDD-PAC is first exploring: - Impact of protected areas (by comparing land use change with and without them). - Impacts of enforcing forest code re-forestation requirements. Preliminary results on levels of deforestation with different levels of enforcement of the reforestation requirements within the forest code.

9 Challenges: 2. Reconciling land uses/covers and understanding changes Increase in productive area Preliminary results change in productive area Decreases in: forest other natural land Secondary vegetation Remnants primary veg.

10 Challenges: 2. Reconciling land uses/covers and understanding changes Increase in productive area Decreases in forest and other natural land Preliminary results change in productive area Ancillary data used to assess minimum decrease in primary vegetation remnants due to increases in productive use

11 Challenges: 3. Assessing impacts on biodiversity Projected land use/cover change under different policy options explored in terms of: Changes in important places o areas identified as important for biodiversity conservation o ecosystems of concern Changes within species ranges o Different types of species o All species combined

12 Change in biodiversity priority areas e.g. preliminary results for Brazil National priority areas for biodiversity conservation (MMA, Brazil 2007)

13 Assessing land use change in biodiversity priority areas

14 Land use change in biodiversity priority areas: Amount of converted land within priority areas in each cell Minimum Initial draft results from Brazil Maximum

15 Change within species ranges e.g. Chimpanzee range in DRC IUCN distribution data on mammal, bird, amphibian species (total 1637 in DRC) + Species habitat preferences Change in suitable habitat within extent of occurrence of each species Chimpanzee extent of occurrence in DRC overlaid on modelling units

16 Change within species ranges: all species or key subsets e.g. Preliminary results: Combined impact on threatened species in DRC Change in suitable habitat within extent of occurrence of each species can be weighted in relation to total available Spatial distribution of impact across habitat and species combined with results other species for an overview of biodiversity impact

17 Next steps Modelling specific policy options o Brazil: how do biodiversity impacts differ if efforts to enhance implementation are concentrated on forests in biodiversity priority areas o Congo Basin: identifying & modelling options common to emerging REDD+ strategies in several countries e.g. increase in protected areas; improved agricultural management/production Using national biodiversity data including species range data.

18 Thank you for listening, Any Questions?

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