Asian Business Dialogue on Corporate Governance The Energy Sector in ASEAN: Opportunities and Challenges. Khun Surong Bulakul 1ACE-LIC

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1 Asian Business Dialogue on Corporate Governance 2012 The Energy Sector in ASEAN: Opportunities and Challenges Khun Surong Bulakul 1ACE-LIC

2 Outline ASEAN Energy Overview ASEAN Energy Consumption Efficiency Opportunities and challenges in ASEAN ASEAN Collaboration

3 ASEAN is growing fast ASEAN countries have potential to grow with a corresponding world economic market Land Area (sq. km) Population (Million) GDP 2010 (Billion US$) Share of World GDP (% ) World 129,611,322 6,697 63, US 9,161, , EU 2,509, , Asia 44,579,000 3,998 19, China 9,327,489 1,325 5, India 2,973,190 1,140 1, Thailand 510, ASEAN (10) 4,326, , ASEAN + 3 (China, Korea, Japan) 14,114,966 2,075 13, ASEAN + 6 (China, Korea, Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand) ASEAN population accounts for 9% of the world, but contribute only 1.8% to the world GDP. However, there is room for improving the economic growth in ASEAN countries. 29,364,223 3,814 16, Source: World Bank Note: ASEAN (10): Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam 3 3

4 ASEAN is growing fast ASEAN is one of the fastest growing region in the world GDP Growth (%yoy) 13.5 GDP (%) (E) 2012 (F) World China Advanced Economies US ASEAN EU Japan World -0.5 Developing Asia China India ASEAN E 2012F Source: IMF : IMF Jun and 2011 ADB 4 4

5 Energy Balance in ASEAN ASEAN will require increasing energy supply to keep up with its rapid pace of economic expansion Mtoe 1200 ASEAN Final Energy Consumption COAL 600 OIL NATURAL GAS ELECTRICCITY OTHERS (BAU) 2030(BAU)

6 Energy Balance in ASEAN Petroleum Reserve in ASEAN Gas reserves (TCF) Hydropower potential capacity (GW) Coal proved reserves (Million tons) Oil proved reserves (Billions bbl) Indonesia , Laos Malaysia Myanmar , Philippines Thailand , Vietnam

7 Energy Balance in ASEAN Most ASEAN countries are net oil importer (2010) Ktoe 65,000 61,356 55,000 45,000 35,000 29,952 25,000 15,000 15,352 17,994 5, ,150 1,195 3,229-5,000-15,000 Brunei Darussalam -8,302 Malaysia Laos Cambodia Myanmar Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Thailand Singapore -4,065 Source : Wood Makenzie 8 out of 10 ASEAN countries depend on imported crude 7

8 Energy Balance in ASEAN While few countries are gas importer (2010) Ktoe 10,000 4,810 7, ,000 Indonesia Malaysia Brunei Darussalam -8,515 Myanmar Thailand Singapore -7,514-20,000-30,000-26,093-40,000-50,000 Source : Wood Makenzie -37,896 Thailand & Singapore use imported gas from their neighboring countries but LNG will become alternative choice in the near future 8

9 Energy Balance in ASEAN Most ASEAN countries are highly dependent on oil import more than ever Ktoe 320, ,786 Oil 290, , , , , , , , , , ,000 74,539 80,000 50,000 39,706 20,000-10, ,000-24,858-70,000-56,482-58,570-67,598-68,219-64,879 Gas -100,000-83,093 Source : Wood Makenzie 9

10 Energy Balance in ASEAN Oil Consumption nearly double in 2030 but oil production keep declining Ktoe 400, ,000 Oil consumption Oil production 300, , , , ,000 50, Source: Wood Mckenzie 10

11 Energy Balance in ASEAN Gas consumption also continue to increase as well as gas production in the near future (2020) Ktoe 300,000 Gas consumption Gas production 250, , , ,000 50, Source: Wood Mckenzie 11

12 Energy Balance in ASEAN Continental ASEAN Concept Energy Deficit Energy Surplus Source : Dr. Pailin Chuchotaworn, PTT CEO.

13 Outline ASEAN Energy Overview ASEAN Energy Consumption Efficiency Opportunities and challenges in ASEAN ASEAN Collaboration

14 ASEAN Energy Intensity vs World in World Brunei Singapore Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Laos Cambodia Burma (Myanmar) Total Primary Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP (Btu per Year 2005 U.S. Dollars (Purchasing Power Parities)) Source : EIA 14

15 Carbon Intensity using Purchasing Power Parities Burma (Myanmar) Laos Cambodia Philippines Malaysia Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Singapore Brunei (Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide per Thousand Year 2005U.S. Dollars) Source : EIA

16 Encouraging the efficient use of energy Efficient PP 5% CCS 10% Nuclear 10% Renewable 20% Bio Fuel 3% Energy efficiency 52% Remove fossil fuel subsidies Establish clear, consistent standards source: IEA, IIEC Improving energy efficiency is the best way to ensure energy security, limit greenhouse gas emissions, and insulate economies from the volatility of energy prices Educate & create awareness 16

17 Environmental Management: License to Operate GREEN CG CSR 17

18 Promote renewable energy in the region Biomass Thailand Indonesia Wind Power Go Green Biofuel Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Laos Small hydro Solar Geothermal Laos All country in ASEAN Philippines 18

19 Outline ASEAN Energy Overview ASEAN Energy Consumption Efficiency Opportunities and challenges in ASEAN ASEAN Collaboration

20 Challenges vs. Opportunities Laos Limited Petroleum Resource Infrastructure Hydro Power Oil Retail Business Vietnam Energy accessibility Infrastructure Coal Business LPG Business Petrochemical Business Cambodia High dependency on imported energy Oil Retail Business OCA Myanmar Political E&P Business Insatiability Hydro Power Infrastructure Logistics, ports & Aim to use energy pipelines as country economy driver Philippines Geography Limited Petroleum Resource Oil Retail Business Malaysia Energy Subsidies Green Energy Refinery & Petrochemical Business LPG Business Singapore High dependency on imported energy Trading Indonesia Energy Subsidies Green Energy Coal Business Palm Oil Plantation E&P Business Brunei Energy Efficiency Coal Business

21 Thailand Energy Security 21

22 Outline ASEAN Energy Overview ASEAN Energy Consumption Efficiency Opportunities and challenges in ASEAN ASEAN Collaboration

23 ASEAN Must Accept Market Economy Increase competitiveness Depart from protectionism & subsidies Increase awareness AEC From the World competitiveness scoreboard rd Singapore 16th Malaysia 27th Thailand 37th Indonesia 41st Philippines Financial sector Telecommunication sector Energy sector Entrepreneurship Agricultural sector Commercial sector 23

24 Enhancing the security of petroleum supply for ASEAN members ASEAN Power Grid Trans ASEAN Gas Pipeline Regional Joint Stockpiling 24

25 Summary ASEAN is one of the fastest growing region in the world. Most of ASEAN counties highly depend on oil import while most countries are gas exporter. Lot of room for improvement on energy efficiency in ASEAN. Environment concern on carbon credit, Go Green Strategy and License to operate Collaboration : Increase in competitiveness, awareness and entrepreneurship and depart from protectionism and subsidies 25

26 Thank You

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