Green Energy Chris in Greacen the Golden Land: a vision for. clean electricity sector in Myanmar

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1 Green Energy Chris in Greacen the Golden Land: a vision for Upscaling Mini-Grid Workshop clean electricity sector in Myanmar Nairobi, Kenya Chris May Greacen, 24, 2016Ph.D.

2 A Myanmar electricity vision Energy access for all Minimal social and environmental impacts from electricity generation Reliable Affordable Contributes to an economy based on Myanmar s deep natural beauty and cultural richness Slide 2

3 Resources can be marshalled Technical assistance Technology Finance Slide 3

4 Overview Technology Most global investment in electricity generation is in renewables Renewables potentially more affordable than some conventional options being suggested for Myanmar Renewables can play important role in rural electrification Financing Financing particularly available for climate-friendly energy Slide 4

5 Renewables share of global electricity Renewables accounted 28.9% of global power generation capacity and 23.7% of global electricity demand Renewables made up for 60% of net additions to global power capacity Total RE power capacity: 1,849 GW, an increase of almost 9% over 2014

6 6

7 TECHNOLOGY Slide 7

8 Energy Efficiency Insulate roofs to keep cool in 1.4 to 4 US cents per kwh T-5 Source: The World Bank, Impact of Energy Conservation, DSM and Renewable Energy Generation on EGAT s PDP, 2005

9 California Advancing Energy Efficiency

10 Pacific Northwest in USA: Energy efficiency to meet over 60% of new demand, renewables most of rest Sixth Plan Resource Portfolio 10

11 Binding commitments to renewables 20% 33% 50%

12 The World s Largest Solar Thermal Power Plant Ivanpah Solar Thermal Project 370 MW - San Bernardino County, CA

13 World s Largest Thin Film Solar PV Project Desert Sunlight Solar Project MW - Riverside County, CA

14 World s Largest Wind Project Alta Wind Energy Center 1.55 GW - Kern County, California

15 Solar in Thailand Over 2.5 GW as of 2015 Slide 15

16 Solar PV Capacity added: +50 GW Total capacity: 227 GW Annual PV market in 2015 was nearly 10 times the world s cumulative solar PV capacity of a decade earlier Myanmar installed capacity all power plants 4.6 GW

17 Low solar bid prices ( ) Expected natural gas based generation cost in Myanmar (105 kyat/kwh = 8.8 US cents) (Deloitte, 2016) Solar PV, unsolicited bid ACO US 13 cents/kwh 800 MW solar plant in Dubai US 2.99 cents per kwh Zambia solar PV bidding winner 25 year fixed price US 6.02 cents/kwh 50 MW project. World Bank Scaling Solar program Slide 17

18 Solar farm lead time Pre-construction Site selection Resource evaluation Interconnection Permitting 6 to 36 months PPA negotiation Construction Module supply agreement Constructing solar farm 3 to 12 months

19 Thai electric load profile Solar output Slide 19

20 Wind power in Thailand 235 MW as of May 2015 Cost of production as low as 6 US cents/kwh

21 Wind Power Wind power was the leading source of new power generating capacity in Europe and the United States in 2015, and the second largest in China Wind power is playing a major role in meeting electricity demand in an increasing number of countries, e.g.: Denmark: 42% of demand Uruguay: 15.5%

22 Source: Wind potential, Myanmar (?) MOA for 30MW wind project (Three Gorges Corporation) in Ayeyarwady Region >3000 MW more potential according to developer

23 Biomass Sugar cane Rice husk Rubber wood Thailand: 3266 MW Slide 23

24 Small hydro Mwenga 4 MW hydro Tanzania 800 households in 15 villages (expanding to 4000) & sells to the grid Slide 24

25 3MW Nam Khun, Kyaing Tong Kyi Thien Family Co. & Kyaing Tong Energy Co., Ltd.

26 Myanmar Small Hydro potential Some 100 projects < 1 MW identified Many more exist, as yet unidentified Slide 26

27 Hydro flooding impact: big versus small Source: Natel Energy

28 Royal Htoo Linn Manufacturing Co., Ltd Sittwe,Rakhine State 28

29 Myaing village hydro 29

30 Mae Kam Pong, Chiang Mai, Thailand Built by government & community 40 kw Used to be off-grid; Making arrangements to sell electricity to grid

31 Before the grid arrives Customers Customers M M M M M M Mini-Grid National Grid Large Plants Small Power Producer Key: = power from utility = power from SPP M = meter 31

32 Allow interconnection of mini-grids 32

33 Small Power Producer (SPP) regulations $ Thai Very Small Power Producer documents : Tanzania Small Power Producer documents:

34 FINANCING

35 Financing grants equity debt guarantees insurance results-based financing carbon financing Slide 35

36 Renewable energy funds Slide 36

37 Uganda GETFiT Global Energy Transfer Feed-in Tariffs Uganda utility REFiT Donors: Norway, Germany, UK and EU pay GETFiT premium Provide risk guarantees Provide technical assistance Slide 37

38 Uganda GETFiT Results: Leverage $400 million private financing Up to 20 projects 170 MW Slide 38

39 The U.S. and India struck a deal Tuesday to finance as much as $1 billion in solar energy projects Slide 39

40 Infra Capital Myanmar Funded by UK Department for International Development (UKAid) Purpose: de-risk sustainable infrastructure Slide 40

41 Micro-finance Slide 41

42 ACTION ITEMS

43 Action item: Convene a dream team Put in place dream team to advise on sustainable energy transition (???) Passionate, creative, scientific-minded Myanmar leaders Unbiased international advisors Their job: figure out how to get the job done Taking account of intuitional realities in Myanmar Leveraging domestic and international opportunities Slide 43

44 Inspiration: Skunk Works A skunkworks project is a project developed by a small and loosely structured group of people who research and develop a project primarily for the sake of radical innovation. Lockheed P-80A Macintosh computer

45 World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Myanmar sustainable energy scenario Slide 45

46 Action item: Tell the world Issue clean energy directive State clearly cardinal principal to develop electricity sector prioritizing energy efficiency and renewable energy Slide 46

47 Action items: Build regulatory framework Develop and resource strong regulatory authority with mandate and independent funding Purpose: fair policing of sector to ensure consumers benefit Develop framework for private sector participation in renewable energy generation Streamlined interconnection and feed-in tariffs for renewable energy < 10 MW Competitive bidding for solar & wind > 10 MW (lower prices than non-solicited proposals) Slide 47

48 Action item: Energy efficiency utility Develop fully-resourced energy efficiency utility Use funds from sales of electricity to implement a wide range of energy savings programs and measures Residential Commercial Industrial Slide 48

49 Action item: Transmission and distribution foundation for success Fix key transmission and distribution problems Capacitors to address power factor problems Replace undersized conductors, transformers Implement smart grid to monitor and control, implement distributed generation Slide 49

50 Action item: Education Train Myanmar youth on clean energy Build practical renewable energy training into practical engineering curriculum in: Universities Technical colleges Vocational training centers Secondary school Primary school Slide 50

51 Summary Energy efficiency & renewables are affordable (and often lowest cost option) Technical assistance widely available Financing widely available Create dream-team Tell the world Regulatory framework Energy efficiency utility Transmission and distribution system smart grid Slide 51

52 Thank you What do you think?

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