Climate Change Risk Appraisal in the Austrian Ski Industry

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2 Climate Change Risk Appraisal in the Austrian Ski Industry (Accepted in Tourism Review International September 2006) Christoph Wolfsegger Stefan Gössling Daniel Scott LUCSUS Lund University Center for Sustainability Studies

3 The ski tourism industry is threatened by climate change IPCC BBC Science Magazine International Herald Tribune EEA Etc.

4 But does it really matter what researchers and media think?..even more important: What does the affected industry think?

5 Ski tourism in Austria > 300 ski resorts km of ski runs 49 mio skier days (2004/05) 99 per day 4.7 billion turnover Many associated business Multiplier effect important for rural economy

6 Climate change research in ski resorts Studies in Japan, Austria, Switzerland, Australia, Canada, USA - all project negative consequences of varying degrees for the tourism industry

7 Summery of research results Declined season length (not a linear trend) Alpine Region warmed considerably more compared to the northern hemisphere average Low altitudes will be much more affected than higher altitudes Uncertainties about time horizon and magnitude of impacts Only very few studies incorporate the adaptive capacity (eg. snowmaking) in studies.

8 What can be done? ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE?..but this depends on the adaptive capacity of the exposed system!

9 Adaptive capacity depends on Economical or technical resources How well one perceives the problem

10 Survey design Criteria for target population >10 km of ski runs >50 % of the altitude range under 1500m 71 ski resorts qualified 36 valid responses

11 Survey design internet based decision makers of ski resort operators not biased towards one certain type of ski resorts

12 Priority of climate change respondents high priority moderately high priority medium priority moderately low priotity low priority Perceived economic costs respondents large economic costs moderately high economic costs medium economic costs hardly economic costs no economic costs

13 Observed versus expected climate change Observed changes inconsistent Expected changes high 9 out of 31 did not see any sign of climate change

14 Inconsistency of observed impacts perveived impacts affirmative beliefs Reinforcing loop Avoidance of cognitive dissonance bias R approval as a threat - skeptical believes

15 Perceived adaptive capacity respondents more without adaptation with adaptation years

16 Adaptation What strategies do decision makers consider appropriate? (23 strategies) Technological adaptations Soft Business adaptations Government and industry adaptations

17 Technological adaptations snowmaking - x=1.26 moving to higher altitudes - x=1.91 avoiding southern exposure of the slopes - x=2.24 snowmaking with chemical additives - x=2.79 very appropriate moderately appropriate improving seasonal weather forecasts to improve the planning of the season - x=3.09 shadowing of slopes by trees - x=3.39 medium appropriate moderately inappropriate inappropriate artificial ski slopes (carpets) - x=3.79 cloud seeding - x=4.48 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

18 Soft business strategies sharing costs of snowmaking with accommodation industry - x=1.65 joining ski conglomerates - x=2.15 diversification of winter offerings - x=2.12 diversification of all season offerings - x=2.21 enhanced marketing to intensify shorter season - x=2.45 shortening of season - x=3.21 giving up slopes which need too much snow cover - x=3.38 increasing capacity of lifts - x=3.55 very appropriate moderately appropriate medium appropriate moderately inappropriate inappropriate insurance against financial losses caused by little snow - x=3.65 opening slopes with less snow cover than usual - x=3.73 closing the ski resort - x=4.41 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

19 Government and industry responses governmental subsidies for snowmaking - x=1.94 softening of environmental regulations - x=2.21 lobbying of the ski industry to redruce CO2 emissions - x=2.63 governmental support in case of economical losses - x=2.82 very appropriate moderately appropriate medium appropriate moderately inappropriate inappropriate 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

20 Dominance of snowmaking as an adaptation strategy Different strategies based on: Physical characteristics Business Model Management Practices

21 Snowmaking

22 Discussed environmental impacts of snowmaking Energy and water consumption Stays longer on the slope Potential disturbance of nutrient balance Noise has impacts on humans and wildlife Ethic Chemical additives

23 Usage of snowmaking different ski resorts % of ski runs provided with snowmaking

24 Snowmaking 84 % would increase snowmaking Snowmaking costs are the major limitations for adaptation 28 out of 29 deny environmental impacts

25 Why snowmaking? Cost benefit analysis Immediate benefits When dealing with future impacts and anticipated adaptation uncertainties are always present! Environmental impacts (costs) are not perceived (28 out of 29)

26 Positiv: No underestimation of the severity of future impacts! Negativ: Perceived adaptive capacity maybe too high?

27 Perceived adaptive capacity to high? Snowmaking has limitations physically and financially Adaptation costs will reduce demand for low altitude ski resorts winners and losers Pressure on the environment from both winners and losers

28 Arising questions To what extend can snowmaking reduce the vulnerability of the ski industry in the next decades? Should the government subsidize snowmaking costs? Should there be income stabilization programs? Should Austria not support low lying ski resorts but allow high altitude ski resorts to expand?

29 What if adaptation is not supported in Austria but in other countries it will be? What are the environmental costs of additional snowmaking or the introduction of chemical additives?

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