1 The project is funded by the European Commission s Directorate-General Environment Freight trends and forecasts Riccardo Enei - ISIS
2 This presentation Introduction to the freight forecasts Global trends: By mode (road, rail, maritime, IWW, air) In general Conclusions: freight transport visions to 2050 Where What How
3 Introduction to the freight forecasts Drivers of transport demand discussed in the First Stakeholder Conference on March 27, 2009: 1.SOCIETY 1. Population growth and ageing 2. Migration 3. Urbanization 4. Work-time regimes (tele-working) 5. Tourism and leisure 6. Lifestyle 7. Safety 8. Security 4.TECHNOLOGY 16. New energy infrastructure 17. New transport infrastructure 18. New fuels and vehicles 19. ICT development 2.ECONOMY 9. Growth and productivity 10. Trade 11. Employment 12. Public budget constraints 6.POLICY 25. EU enlargement 26. EU integration 27. EU territorial cohesion 28. EU taxation policy 29. Global trade governance 30. Global Climate Change governance 31. Global security governance 3.ENERGY 13. Energy supply 14. Energy demand 15. Energy prices 5.ENVIRONMENT 20. Pollution 21. Waste 22. Greenhouse gas emissions 23. Climate change 24. Natural resource consumption
4 Introduction to the freight forecasts Concerning freight transport : three main drivers have been identified: 1. GDP growth rates, due to the strong correlation with the movement of raw materials, intermediary products and final consumer goods 2. Energy prices, in particular oil price, due the relevance of fossil fuels in transport energy consumption and transport operating costs 3. Globalization, due to the importance of international trade and the organization of production processes at global scale The key assumption is to consider these drivers under a BAU perspective: the TRANS-TOOLS output
5 Introduction to the freight forecasts REFERENCE SCENARIO IN TRANS-TOOLS projections concerning the population (which is a relevant element for the generation of passengers trips); projections concerning the GDP (which is a relevant element for the generation of freight trips); autonomous changes in transport costs (i.e. due to more expensive oil price); transport network changes due to completed TEN projects.
6 Introduction to the freight forecasts 1. GDP growth rates, due to the strong correlation with the movement of raw materials, intermediary products and final consumer goods DG ECFIN calculations, EU27 EU15 + CH, NO EU12 + HR EU27 EU15 + CH, NO EU12 + HR 1,7 1,6 3,0 1,7 1,7 2,3 AMECO, Prognos, Progtrans from FREIGHTVISIONS, 2009 Over the whole year 2009, GDP fell by 4.0% in the euro area and by 4.1% in the EU27.
7 Introduction to the freight forecasts Truck freight tkm and GDP per Capita IEA, Energy Use in the New Millennium, 2007
8 Introduction to the freight forecasts GDP trends implications The pattern suggests a fastest growth in the eastern part of Europe compared to the western part This pattern is going to continue up to 2050, but a general reduction is expected during the period 2030 to Road freight growth is higher in the Eastern part of Europe (more domestic traffic)
9 Introduction to the freight forecasts 2. Energy prices, in particular oil price, due the likely relevance of fossil fuels in transport energy consumption and transport operating costs Oil peak? Source: WETO-H 2 ( 2006)
10 Introduction to the freight forecasts Oil prices implications Road: an increase in operating costs (4-7%), but no dramatic impacts on transport demand are expected Air: the sector is more sensitive to energy prices. Higher prices may have a negative impact on transport demand. Maritime: it only uses 5% of the oil consumed by transport sector, no significant impact on transport demand is expected IWW: no significant impacts are expected
11 Introduction to the freight forecasts Oil prices implications The offsetting role of technology: Improving loading factors (air, sea, road) Reduction of consumptions New fuel types Better management of supply chain = Air and road : higher sensitivity to fuel price
12 Introduction to the freight forecasts 3. Globalization, due to the importance of international trade and the organization of production processes at global scale Source: TRANSvisions ( 2009)
13 Introduction to the freight forecasts Globalization implications The growing value-to-weight ratio in freight transport leads to the consequence of a reduced importance of transport costs of the delivered price of good (low price elasticity) Today,75% of FIAT components are produced abroad; 80% (RENAULT), even more for DELL This pattern may lead to increasing switching to air cargo and maritime transport in a long term perspective.
14 Global trends by mode: road % tkm 2005 % tkm 2050 % Road 46,5% 40,3% % Rail 12,1% 17,5% % Maritime 41,4% 42,2% 100,0% 100,0% Source: TRANSvisions ( 2009) In 2050, road freight transport will be still important The higher truck transport growth is projected in the Eastern European countries: Romania, Latvia, Poland, Bulgaria and the Slovak republic.
15 Global trends by mode: rail % tkm 2005 % tkm 2050 % Road 46,5% 40,3% % Rail 12,1% 17,5% % Maritime 41,4% 42,2% 100,0% 100,0% Source: TRANSvisions ( 2009) In 2050, rail freight increases its share By 2030 the rail freight transport to and from Russia is expected to growth by 135%. Similar high growth rates are expected in the Baltic countries.
16 Global trends by mode: maritime Sea freight including SSS % var ,8% 73,4% 93,4% Sea freight outside Europe % var ,8% 76,5% 148,2% Source: TRANSvisions ( 2009) In 2050, maritime transport is expected to growth at higher rates In Centre-North Europe, the increase of the average distance against the domestic traffic (the opposite will happen in the European South East countries) may increase overseas transport.
17 Global trends by mode: air Source: Boeing, Current Market outlook Air freight transport demand at world level has been growing at an average annual rate by 5.8% since This would imply that air traffic will double in 15 years, and more than triple in 25 years
18 Intra Zone: trips with origin and destination inside the same macrozone: South (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain), North/Centre (rest of the EU 15), East (rest of the EU 27). Conclusions: freight transport visions to 2050 Definitions (1) Regional: intra NUTS2 trips. Domestic: rest of trips with origin and destination inside the same country.
19 Conclusions: freight transport visions to 2050 Definitions (2) Extra Zone: trips with origin or destination in different macrozones Cross border: trips with origin or destination outside the EU 27, in one of the neighbouring countries
20 Freight transport visions to 2050: where EFTA, Balkans, Russia, Byelorussia, Ukraine Turkey. Source: TRANSvisions ( 2009)
21 Freight transport visions to 2050: where Source: TRANSvisions ( 2009)
22 Freight transport visions to 2050: what and how 2030 horizon Higher relative growth of SSS Solid fuels, Crude oil Metal product Chemicals Source: TEN CONNECT ( 2009) domestic tonnes
23 Freight transport visions to 2050: what and how 2030 horizon Higher relative growth of rail Manufactured products Metal products Solid fuels Building material Higher relative growth of int. traffic Source: TEN CONNECT ( 2009) international tonnes
24 Conclusions Considering freight with origin and destination within EU-27 territory, the growth rate could be very low in average for all products, less than 1.2% per year. The addition of freight with origin or destination in EU-27 neighbour countries (except northern Africa) increases the growth rate to 2.25% per year.
25 Conclusions In the EU central and northern regions, domestic freight traffic will remain stable, decoupled from economic growth, while traffic originating or having a destination outside the EU-27 will grow faster than the economy (rail, SSS, air) The European Eastern countries are expected to have the biggest increase of freight transport (4.3% ton-km per year) (road, rail)
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