CUM Crusher Came on Time. Update from Our Site Tour
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- Maurice Lynch
- 7 years ago
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1 Copper Mountain Mining Corp. (CUM-T: C$2.88) September 15, 2014 NEUTRAL, High Risk Dundee target: C$3.00 Joseph Gallucci, MBA / (514) jgallucci@dundeecapitalmarkets.com Sean Bracken / (514) sbracken@dundeecapitalmarkets.com CUM Crusher Came on Time. Update from Our Site Tour CUM: Price/Volume Chart 4 0 C o p p er M o u n t ain M in in g C o rp o rat ion ( C U M - C A) Vo lu m e (M illio n s ) P ric e (C AD ) V o l u m e C o p p e r M o u n ta i n M i n i ng C o rp o ra ti o n O c t-1 2 Ap r-1 3 O c t-1 3 Ap r-1 4 Source: Factset Company Description Copper Mountain is a Vancouver-based midtier copper producer focused on operating and expanding the past-producing Copper Mountain Mine located 20km south of the town of Princeton in south-central BC Highlights from Our Sight Visit We believe CUM did a great job of installing the secondary crusher on time and on budget. However, after our site visit we continue to believe that CUM has elevated operational risk resulting from the lack of a long-term mine plan, but with a 34,442tpd throughput rate reached in the first week of August, crushing issues could see a permanent resolution by year-end. With the installation of the secondary crusher, CUM believes that mill throughput of 35,000tpd (nameplate) is more than achievable, after which ramping the mill up to 40,000tpd would become the next objective. Crusher Ramping Up The secondary crusher was built on time and on budget for $40M (CUM s share was $30M, and Mitsubishi's share was $10M). The crusher was installed to solve the Copper Mountain Mine s hard ore crushing issues, and is designed to crush all mill feed to below 2-inch and will bring the mine up to a throughput of 35,000tpd and ~80-90M lbs per year. We note that the crusher was originally slated as an expansion project (to get the mine up to 100M lbs per year), but it is now necessary, due to harder-than-expected-ore, to attain original capacity of 80-90M lbs. Our estimate for 2014 is 81M lbs and 87M lbs in 2015 (unchanged). Bottom Line: We believe CUM shares are fairly valued. Based on our estimates CUM is still trading at a premium versus the sector at 5.2x EV/EBITDA in 2015 and at 1.19x P/NAV, above peers at 3.8x EV/EBITDA '15 and 0.73x P/NAV, especially when compared to CS at 3.3x/0.56x, and TKO at 3.0x/0.69x. Using consensus estimates CUM is trading at 6.0x EV/EBITDA '15 above peers at 5.2x, CS at 5.7x, and TKO at 4.7x. The Copper Mountain Mine does not have a mine plan and CUM only gives guidance on an annual basis. We expect 2015 guidance to be released in December. Given the feasibility study is out of date and the ore body is too dynamic to give long term guidance, we have low confidence in our NAV and believe EBITDA is the appropriate valuation metric. In addition, at the moment we believe no growth exists with the stock as CUM has not been active in exploration. We maintain our NEUTRAL rating with a target price of $3.00/share based on a 5.5x EV/EBITDA multiple to our 2015 EBITDA (75% of Copper Mountain) estimate of $117M. Please see Disclosures and Disclaimers at the end of this report. A division of Dundee Securities Ltd. Dundee Capital Markets is a registered trademark of Dundee Corporation, used under license.
2 Secondary Crusher The secondary crusher was overbuilt, which is a great thing, and the company is still in the learning process of understanding its full capabilities. CUM will not release cost savings resulting from the secondary crusher yet, as they currently do not know how much it will save them or what throughput they can achieve. Prior to the installation of the secondary crusher, contract crushing cost ~$1.3MM/month and at the moment the secondary crusher is costing the company ~$450K/month for immediate savings of $850K/month, which is not that significant. The main benefit of the secondary crusher may result from its ability to increase concentrate production and push mill throughput up from 35,000tpd to 40,000tpd. The goal for the mill is 35,000tpd, but it may be able to reach 40,000tpd once the crusher is fully ramped up. At the moment, 2014 guidance is comfortable and the company believes it is on track to meet it. Currently, ten 50-tonne trucks are transporting concentrate every day, for a total of ~500tpd of wet concentrate (in line with our estimates). CUM's New Secondary Crusher Exterior, Interior, Secondary Crusher Feed, Stockpile Source: DCM Long Term Mine Plan & Guidance In our view, the mine plan (or lack thereof) is one of the main points of concern we have with CUM. The company is currently working on a 5 year mine plan (this will not be given to us), but emphasizes that the deposit poses several grade continuity challenges, and is unlike other porphyry copper deposits. CUM asserts that the grade is not consistent enough to give LOM guidance. Yearly guidance will be given in December. Currently, the mine has a 10 year LOM, with 17 years of processing with the balance being supplied by stockpiles (as stipulated in the feasibility study). At the moment we do not have an updated grade profile for the mine, and we believe that the company needs to drill as no exploration has been conducted on the site since Exploration Exploration will become the focus once the crusher is fully ramped up (2015E). The company expects to budget $3-$5MM/yr on exploration in order to upgrade the confidence level of their current resource and to find new deposits. CUM's goal is to increase its reserve to 360Mt, and to expand its reserve beyond 20 years (currently LOM 17 years) at 40,000tpd (previously, 35,000tpd design capacity). The current reserve at a cut-off grade of 0.18% DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page 2
3 copper is 145Mt. In order to meet its 360Mt reserve target, 80% of the increase in reserves will come from upgrading the current resource. YTD the company has not spent anything on exploration in M&A, CUM Looking for Growth CUM is pursuing an acquisition, or could itself be an M&A target. Given the uncertainty regarding a potential transaction, CUM could see increased volatility in its stock price. CUM has hired Ernie Mast as VP Corporate Development. Mr. Mast has been with CUM for 4 months, has an impressive CV and is well connected in the mining industry. Prior to joining CUM, Mr. Mast was president and CEO of Minera Panama, President and General Manager of Falcondo at Xstrata Nickel Ltd., and has 25 years of international gold, copper and nickel experience in all facets of the cycle of mine operations. CUM is looking at making an acquisition and has 3 priorities when considering the purchase of an asset: Production Early development (similar to the position CUM was in when it was purchased in 2006) Exploration targets CUM is looking for a North American asset and to a lesser extent something located in South America (but we do not believe they would look anywhere else). They are interested in something similar in production size to their Copper Mountain Mine or CS' Pinto Valley Mine. Note, CUM was one of the bidders for Pinto Valley prior to it being acquired by Capstone Mining. CUM could finance an acquisition with debt and equity (75%/25%), and Mitsubishi Corp. would be willing to be a partner and contribute to the debt financing (currently owns 25% of CUM, and all of CUM's debt). The company is willing to acquire any commodity, not just copper, and asserts that they are a mining company, not a copper company. Tailings Dam (Topic du Jour) The tailings dam facility at Copper Mountain is located in a valley, and already existed when CUM purchased the mine in Prior the acquisition, there had never been a tailings leak detected, and when the asset was purchased, Amec examined the existing tailings facility and advised CUM on how it should be properly managed and expanded. During its expansion, Amec visited the site once a month to ensure the tailings facility was being built to design specifications. The tailings facility incorporates two tailings dams located in the east and west ends of the valley, was constructed using the centerline method, and is fed with cycloned sands. The tailings are non-acid generating and from , the dams were raised using the centerline and upstream construction methods with mine waste rock and talus used to reinforce the toes of the west and east dams. Note that the Mount Polley tailings dam (III-T, not rated) was constructed using the centerline method. CUM is required to have a tailings beach (distance between tailings and dam) of 100m, but states it exceeds regulations and has beaches ranging from m on each side of the tailings facility. The facility has a capacity for the 17 LOM, but CUM also acquired another valley nearby if they needed to expand their tailings management. The BC Government has requested an inspection of the tailings facility to be conducted by a third party engineering firm by December 2014 (to be completed in October). CUM is also required to have an external review of the facility conducted every 5 years. DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page 3
4 Mining Currently 60-70% of the material being mine is from Pit 3, which will continue until the end of 2015 when a pushback commences. Eventually all three pits will merge into one single open pit. CUM is currently hitting some historical underground workings in Pit 3. As a cautionary measure, they have installed a magnetic system to separate any metal contained within the ore fed to the primary crusher. The company continues to stockpile low grade ore (below 0.2%) to process after the 10 year LOM, and there are also high and medium grade stockpiles for blending purposes. Below we present a photo of CUM's Pit 3 operations. Copper Mountain Mine Pit 3 Source: DCM Logistics & Taxes CUM has implemented a new logistics dispatch system for their trucks, which is very impressive and has been in operation for 3 months. The new logistics system will save CUM ~5% in fleet costs (~few million dollars) or approximately one truck. The company is still currently tax free (Federal and Provincial) until their CAPEX is recuperated, which will take approximately 3 years. At the moment the company is only paying a mining tax of 2% on a sliding scale. Bottom Line: CUM is fairly valued when compared to its peers, however, we still believe CUM has elevated operational risk resulting from the lack of a long-term mine plan. Given the feasibility study is out of date and the ore body is too dynamic to give long term guidance, we have low confidence in our NAV and believe EBITDA is the appropriate valuation metric. In addition, at the moment we believe no growth exists with the stock as CUM has not been active in exploration. We maintain our NEUTRAL rating with a target price of $3.00/share based on a 5.5x EV/EBITDA multiple to our 2015 EBITDA (75% of Copper Mountain) estimate of $117M. DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page 4
5 CUM's Valuation is Fair compared to the sector based on DCM estimates Price MCap Implied NAV Price EBITDA ($M) EV/EBITDA EPS ($/sh) P/E CFPS ($/sh) P/CF Name Ticker Rating Target Analyst 5-Sep-14 (US$M) return ($/sh) to NAV BASE METALS - Producers Capstone Mining CS-T C$2.72 $1,009 BUY C$ % C$ x x 5.2x 3.3x (0.02) 0.11 NM 22.5x x 7.1x JG Copper Mountain CUM-T C$2.90 $319 NEUTRAL C$3.00 3% C$ x x 8.3x 5.2x (0.03) 0.24 NM 11.3x x 4.0x JG Hudbay Minerals HBM-T C$11.05 $2,588 BUY C$ % C$ x x 26.7x 5.9x NM NM NM NM DC Ivernia Inc. IVW-T C$0.12 $85 BUY C$ % C$ x NM 4.6x 1.3x (0.04) 0.01 NM 14.8x NM 5.2x JG Katanga Mining KAT-T C$0.47 $827 NEUTRAL C$0.40 (15% ) C$ x x 8.5x 3.3x x 21.7x x 6.5x DC Largo Resources LGO-T C$0.31 $375 BUY C$ % C$ x NM NM 24.8x 7.3x NM (0.00) NM NM NM 0.01 NM NM JG Lundin Mining LUN-T C$5.96 $3,275 BUY C$ % C$ x x 9.1x 4.1x x 19.5x x 9.7x DC Nevsun Resources NSU-T C$4.50 $871 BUY C$ % C$ x x 2.0x 2.0x NM 13.6x NM 5.4x JG Taseko Mines TKO-T C$2.32 $541 BUY C$ % C$ x NM 6.7x 3.4x (0.11) 0.12 NM 19.0x x 6.3x JG Thompson Creek TCM-T C$2.97 $590 BUY C$ % C$ x NM 4.7x 4.8x (0.13) 0.26 NM 10.6x x 3.5x DC Trevali Mining TV-T C$1.31 $368 BUY C$ % C$ x NM 19.9x 4.5x (0.08) (0.00) NM NM (0.07) 0.03 NM NM JG Producers Average 0.72x 17.3x 9.6x 3.8x 17.9x 16.6x 9.2x 5.9x Source: DCM CUM's Valuation is Fair compared to the sector based on consensus estimates Copper & Zinc Name Ticker Commod Exch. Price Mcap EV EV/EBITDA P/E P/CFPS Net Debt Analyst Curr. 5-Sep (US$m) (US$m) $mm % Mcap Producers Nevsun Resources Ltd. NSU-CAN Cu, Au, Zn CAD $4.62 $847 $ x 2.2x 3.7x 8.2x 8.0x 18.2x 4.1x 4.3x 7.5x ($427) (50%) JG Atico Mining Corporation ATY-CAN Cu, Au CAD 0.78 $66 $79 6.8x 2.6x 2.3x 16.5x 6.4x 9.0x 8.9x 3.4x 3.1x $7 10% -- Tiger Resources Limited TGS-AU Cu AUD $0.28 $283 $ x 2.6x 2.0x 8.6x 5.1x 3.8x 3.4x 2.3x 1.9x $62 22% -- OZ Minerals Limited OZL-AU Cu, Au, Ag AUD $4.23 $1,204 $ x 3.0x 2.7x nmf nmf nmf 5.1x 3.7x 3.4x ($138) (11%) -- Sandfire Resources NL SFR-AU Cu, Zn, Pb AUD $6.14 $896 $ x 4.1x 4.0x 12.2x 9.0x 8.1x 4.8x 4.4x 4.6x $97 11% -- Taseko Mines Limited TKO-CAN Cu, Au, Mo CAD $2.32 $416 $ x 4.7x 3.9x nmf 8.7x 7.7x 5.6x 4.1x 3.5x $160 38% JG Lundin Mining Corporation LUN-CAN Cu, Zn, Pb CAD $5.96 $3,208 $3, x 4.9x 4.7x 21.8x 9.2x 8.5x 9.5x 5.8x 5.4x $265 8% DC Antofagasta plc ANTO-LON Cu, Au, Mo GBP 7.94 $12,775 $13, x 5.2x 4.5x 16.7x 15.4x 13.2x 8.0x 7.7x 7.2x $110 1% -- Hudbay Minerals Inc. HBM-CAN Cu, Zn, Au CAD $11.05 $2,351 $2, x 5.6x 3.7x nmf 13.1x 8.6x 25.2x 7.5x 4.5x $559 24% DC Capstone Mining Corp. CS-CAN Cu, Ag, Au CAD $2.72 $954 $1, x 5.7x 4.6x 13.7x 10.2x 9.2x 4.7x 4.5x 4.3x $158 17% JG Thompson Creek Metals C TCM-CAN Cu, Au, Mo CAD $2.97 $584 $1, x 5.7x 5.3x 10.1x 20.7x 17.9x 3.5x 4.1x 3.9x $ % DC Katanga Mining Limited KAT-CAN Cu, Co CAD $0.47 $824 $3, x 5.7x na 14.4x 3.5x na 3.8x 1.8x na na na DC Panaust Limited PNA-AU Cu, Au AUD $2.22 $1,323 $1, x 6.0x 5.2x 22.5x 15.9x 10.7x 7.1x 6.3x 6.8x $70 5% -- Copper Mountain Mining C CUM-CAN Cu, Au CAD $2.90 $317 $ x 6.0x 5.7x 17.8x 7.9x 8.4x 5.4x 3.8x 3.5x $247 78% JG Trevali Mining Corporation TV-CAN Zn, Pb, Ag CAD $1.31 $338 $ x 6.2x 3.9x nmf 11.7x 7.6x 19.7x 6.3x 4.4x na na JG Imperial Metals Corporation III-CAN Cu, Au, Mo CAD $9.20 $634 $1, x 7.0x 5.1x nmf 8.7x 5.8x nmf 6.4x 4.4x $560 88% -- Kazakhmys PLC KAZ-LON Cu, Zn, Au GBP 3.01 $2,197 $2, x 7.1x 4.4x nmf 19.6x 10.3x 5.7x 6.9x 5.6x $1,381 63% -- Southern Copper Corporati SCCO-USA Cu, Mo, Ag USD $32.92 $27,399 $30, x 8.7x 7.3x 19.3x 15.8x 12.8x 19.9x 14.8x 11.9x $3,356 12% -- Producers Average $3,145 $3, x 5.2x 4.3x 15.2x 11.1x 10.0x 8.5x 5.5x 5.0x 26.8% Source: FactSet DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page 5
6 Copper Production (M lbs) Total Cash Costs (C$/lbs) Copper (mm lbs) $/lb CuEq Copper Mountain Mining Corp. September 15, 2014 Copper Mountain Mining Corp. (CUM) NEUTRAL, High Risk Basic Shares (MM) Analyst: Associate: Share Price $2.88 Diluted Shares (MM) Joseph Gallucci, MBA Sean Bracken Target Price $3.00 Basic Mkt Cap (C$MM) NAV $2.43 Enterprise Value (C$MM) 640 COMPANY SUMMARY Copper Mountain, is a Vancouver-based mid-tier copper producer focused on operating and expanding the past-producing Copper Mountain Mine located 20km south of the town of Princeton in south-central BC. The company owns 75% of the Copper Mountain Mine and Mitsubishi Materials Corporation ("MMC") owns the remaining 25% of the 5B lb copper project. INVESTMENT THESIS Although we believe, on a fundamental basis, that CUM could underperform its peers, we are positive on the base metals sector as a whole. As such, we believe that the CUM has the ability to trade above or below the broader market depending on certain event risks present in the stock. CUM appears to be one of the go-to names for copper leverage on the TSX. This is especially important for managers looking for exposure to small capitalization pure copper plays. 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E EV/EBITDA 15.3x 9.6x 5.5x 4.4x 3.9x P/E NM 12.2x 7.4x 5.4x 4.6x P/CF 14.4x 5.7x 3.6x 3.0x 2.7x P/S 1.3x 1.2x 1.0x 0.9x 0.9x P/B 0.9x 1.0x 0.8x 0.6x 0.5x CF / Share FCF Yield 8.8% 7.8% 23.5% 28.5% 31.5% RESERVES AND RESOURCES Category Resources Cu CuEq Cont. Cu CuEq Reserves (M Tonnes) (%) (%) (M Tonnes) (M Tonnes) Proven and Probable % 0.44% Resources Measured and Indicated % 0.37% INCOME STATEMENT Inferred % 0.29% C$MM, Year-end Dec. 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Total Resources % 0.35% Total Revenue (Gross) Per Pound Valuation Growth y/y 6% 13% 11% 12% 7% EV/Cu Eq Resource $0.22/lb Costs *Resources are inclusive of Reserves EBITDA (100%) EBITDA Margin 21% 30% 47% 53% 55% Depreciation INPUT PRICES EBIT Key Commodities 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Long Term Unusual/Other Items Copper US$/lbs Net Interest Expense Gold US$/oz 1,423 1,301 1,384 1,413 1,325 Taxes Silver US$/oz Minority Interest Net Income (Reported) (3.4) EPS (Reported) ($/sh) (0.03) Fully Diluted Shares (MM) Assets C$ NAV (MM) /Share % NAV % Resource Copper Mountain $577 $ % 100% Total Mining and Investment Assets $577 $ % C$MM, except per share 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Working Capital $28 $ % Operating Income Balance Sheet Items & Expenditures -$314 -$ % Plus: D&A Total $291 $ % EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA (75%) Cash Cost Comparison Less: Cash Taxes Less: Capital Expenditures Less: Δ in Working Capital Free Cash Flow Less: Interest Expense Less: Dividend FCF Less Int. & Div FCF Less Int. & Div. Growth 39% -11% 267% 24% 12% BALANCE SHEET C$MM 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Cash LT Assets Total Assets Short Term Liabilities TOP 5 SHAREHOLDERS Long Term Liabilities Name Shares Percentage Total Liabilities Fidelity Management & Research Co. 5,112, % Equity Mackenzie Financial Corp. 4,015, % Montrusco Bolton Investments, Inc. 3,005, % CASH FLOW STATEMENT Dimensional Fund Advisors LP 2,247, % C$MM, except per share 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E AGF Investments, Inc. 2,238, % Operating Activities Top 5 Shareholders 16,619, % Net Income (3.4) Top 10 Shareholders 29,170, % Depletion & Amortization Insider Ownership 6,246, % Other Change in WC Investing Activities PP&E (11.4) (26.7) (6.0) (6.0) (6.0) EBITDA $88.8 Total Debt / EBITDA 4.2x Acquisitions EBIT / Int. Exp. 7.2x Total Debt / Capital 0.5x Sale of Assets EBITDA / Int. Exp. 10.9x Total Debt / Equity 1.1x Other (7.6) Financing Activities Proceeds From Debt Issuance Repayment of Long-Term Debt (13.6) (14.2) (14.4) (11.9) (37.1) Proceeds From Issuance of Share Other (10.1) Change in Cash % REVENUE BY METAL 2014E 2% 89% FREE CASH FLOW Copper Gold Silver 100% REVENUE BY MINE 2014E Copper Mountain VALUATION DATA NET ASSET VALUE (C$) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3E Q4E Production (mm lbs) realized price Cu $/lb FINANCIAL RISK RATIOS 2014E (C$MM) COPPER PRODUCTION PROFILE A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Copper Mountain Implied all-in costs/lb $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 C1 Cash Cost (perlb CuEq) All-in Cash Cost (perlb CuEq) $2.80 $2.60 $2.40 $2.20 $2.00 $1.80 $1.60 $1.40 $1.20 $1.00 Source: Factset, DCM, Company Documents DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page 6
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Venture: an early stage company where the business and/or financial risk is high, and there are limited financial metrics upon which to base a reasonable valuation. Investors should not deem the risk ratings to be a comprehensive account of all of the risks of a security. Investors are directed to read Dundee Capital Markets Research reports that contain a discussion of risks which is not meant to be a comprehensive account of all the risks. Investors are directed to read issuer filings which contain a discussion of risk factors specific to the company s business. Medium and High Risk Ratings Methodology: Medium and High risk ratings are derived using a predetermined methodology based on liquidity and volatility. Analysts will have the discretion to raise but not lower the risk rating if it is deemed a higher risk rating is warranted. Risk in relation to forecasted price volatility is only one method of assessing the risk of a security and actual risk ratings could differ. Securities with poor liquidity or high volatility are considered to be High risk. Liquidity and volatility are measured using the following methodology: a) Price Test: All securities with a price <= $3.00 per share are considered high risk for the purpose of this test. b) Liquidity Test: This is a two-tiered calculation that looks at the market capitalization and trading volumes of a company. Smaller capitalization stocks (<$300MM) are assumed to have less liquidity, and are, therefore, more subject to price volatility. In order to avoid discriminating against smaller cap equities that have higher trading volumes, the risk rating will consider 12 month average trading volumes and if a company has traded >70% of its total shares outstanding it will be considered a liquid stock for the purpose of this test. c) Volatility Test: In this two step process, a stock s volatility and beta are compared against the diversified equity benchmark. Canadian equities are compared against the TSX while U.S. equities are compared against the S&P 500. Generally, if the volatility of a stock is 20% greater than its benchmark and the beta of the stock is higher than its sector beta, then the security will be considered a high risk security. Otherwise, the security will be deemed to be a medium risk security. Periodically, the equity risk ratings will be compared to downside risk metrics such as Value at Risk and Semi-Variance and appropriate adjustments may be made. All models used for assessing risk incorporate some element of subjectivity. SECURITY ABBREVIATIONS: NVS (non-voting shares); RVS (restricted voting shares); RS (restricted shares); SVS (subordinate voting shares). DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page 9
10 Dundee Capital Markets Equity Research Ratings 77% 66% 73% % of companies covered by Dundee Capital Markets in each rating category 55% 44% 33% 35% 24% % of companies within each rating category for which Dundee Capital Markets has provided investment banking services for a fee in the past 12 months. 22% 11% 12% 3% 17% 0% Buy Neutral Sell As at June 30, 2014 Source: Dundee Capital Markets DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page 10
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